HOPES FOR MANDATE DASHED: Democrats on the House and Senate Armed Services committees were hoping to hit the trifecta of control of both chambers of Congress plus the White House and to use that power to reshape national security policy in ways they haven’t been able in the past.
House and Senate negotiators were supposed to meet next week to begin hammering out differences in the National Defense Authorization Act, the major defense policy bill that must be passed each year along with the separate appropriations measure.
The date was set by the Senate with the assumption that the election would be over, and it would be known if there would be a new president and who controlled the Senate.
But with the election outcome still uncertain and the prospect of protracted legal challenges by the Trump campaign in the coming days and weeks, the planned negotiations could slip.
“The Senate position basically is, you know, well, you know, we’ll know more after the election,” said House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith last week. “But at some point, you gotta negotiate the issues.”
“I’m deeply concerned at this point that Nov. 9 is going to make it very difficult to get this done in the time we need to get it done,” Smith said at a virtual event hosted by the Center for a New American Security. “The process is the problem. I mean, the issues I think we can hammer through, but you’ve got to start hammering.”
Democrats lost at least seven seats in the House to Republicans, including six first-term representatives. They also picked up two seats in North Carolina, but their majority has been trimmed from 232 to around 226. The minimum to hold the majority in the House is 218.
NOT SO FAST: One of the Democrats’ desires has been to exercise more oversight over the president, and in particular, rein in his use of executive orders and budget gymnastics to thwart the will of Congress. They want to limit how much the Pentagon can shift money around to pay for things Congress hasn’t specifically authorized, such as President Trump’s wall on the southwest border.
But if Joe Biden is elected, the Democrats may not be so anxious to tie the new president’s hands. “Republicans do tend to want to defer to the executive more than Democrats,” said Smith, “If the president is a Republican, that is particularly true.”
Even with a majority in the House, Democrats could not muster the support to pass a new AUMF, an Authorization for Use of Military Force, that would have put some limits on the president’s ability to conduct foreign wars.
RENAMING BASES: In a recent visit to Ft. Bragg, President Trump vowed never to rename the Army base, which was named for a much-reviled Confederate general, Braxton Bragg, in 1918.
Both the House and Senate versions of the NDAA have provisions to force the Army to rename all bases honoring Confederate war heroes, the only difference being how long it should take, one year or three.
Defense Secretary Mark Esper is reportedly helping members of Congress draft the language in the compromise legislation, a move sure to rankle Trump. But Esper is not likely to care. The same report by NBC News says Esper’s already written his letter of resignation to be handed-in in the event Trump wins and reshuffles his Cabinet.
Esper’s been on the out with Trump since June when he opposed the invocation of the Insurrection Act to use active-duty federal troops for crowd control during demonstrations that in some cases turned violent.
Axios reported last month that Esper, FBI Director Christopher Wray, and CIA Director Gina Haspel would be the first to go after the election.
Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Ballots are still being counted in key battleground states, and there is still no clear winner. Here’s the state of play three days after the polls closed.
GEORGIA: The big news overnight is that Biden took the lead from Trump in a state that Trump can’t win without. Mail-in votes from heavily Democratic Clayton County have given Biden a 1,096-vote edge in what otherwise is a statistical tie, 49.4% to 49.4%. If Biden’s lead holds, or even if it doesn’t, there’s likely to be a recount.
PENNSYLVANIA: More results are expected from Pennsylvania this morning, where Trump has seen his substantial 675,000-vote lead Wednesday wither away to just 18,229 votes. There are roughly 175,000 absentee ballots outstanding, with more than 58,000 in Philadelphia, another Democratic stronghold. If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he can’t get to 270, the number of electoral votes needed to secure victory.
ARIZONA: Trump has been making up ground against Biden in Arizona, where many of the mail-in votes are Republican. Biden’s lead is steadily dropping and is down to 47,052, but it is not clear if there are enough votes still to count to tip the state to Trump.
NEVADA: Officials released the results from 26,000 additional ballots yesterday, and Joe Biden is clinging to an 11,438-vote lead, a margin of 0.9%. Biden must win both Nevada and Arizona if he doesn’t win any other states.
THE CANDIDATES SPEAK: Both Trump and Biden made statements yesterday as the vote counting continued. Here’s what they said:
TRUMP: ‘STOP THE COUNT’: The president’s three-word, all-caps tweet came at 9:20 a.m., as he watched his leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia evaporating. Later in the evening, he addressed reporters in the White House briefing room.
“If you count the legal votes, I easily win. If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us,” Trump began.
“I have been talking about mail-in voting for a long time. It’s really destroyed our system. It’s a corrupt system … It’s amazing how those mail-in ballots are so one-sided, too … We were up by nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania. I won Pennsylvania by a lot. And that gets whittled down.”
“We also had margins of 300,000 in Michigan. We were way up in Michigan, won the state. And, in Wisconsin, we did, likewise, fantastically well, and that got whittled down. In every case, they got whittled down.”
“Our goal is to defend the integrity of the election. We will not allow the corruption to steal such an important election.”
BIDEN: ‘STAY CALM’: Biden spoke earlier in the day and gave only brief remarks.
“In America, the vote is sacred. It’s how people of this nation express their will, and it is the will of the voters — no one, not anything else — that chooses the president of the United States of America. So each ballot must be counted, and that’s what we’re going to see going through now, and that’s how it should be.”
“Democracy is sometimes messy, it sometimes requires a little patience as well, but that patience has been rewarded now for more than 240 years with a system of governance that’s been the envy of the world.”
“We have no doubt that when the count is finished, Sen. Harris and I will be declared the winners. So I ask everyone to stay calm, all the people to stay calm. The process is working, the count is being completed, and we’ll know very soon.”
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Continued violence in Afghanistan could halt troop withdrawal in a Biden administration
Washington Examiner: Navy Flattening COVID-19 Curve, Increasing Exercises Globally
Washington Examiner: Defense Secretary Mark Esper prepared letter of resignation: Report
Washington Examiner: The debate over allies: Makers or takers of US military might?
Washington Examiner: US Southern Command naval exercise strengthens formerly strained relationships
Washington Examiner: Taiwan fears it will become the next Hong Kong
Washington Examiner: Family frustrated as presidential election distracts from ex-Marine Paul Whelan’s detention in Russia
Stars and Stripes: U.S. Navy In Italy Shutters Base Schools And Day Care As Coronavirus Numbers Grow
New York Times: One Day in America: More Than 121,000 Virus Cases
Reuters: Trump Administration Advances $2.9 Billion Drone Sale To UAE – Sources
Al Monitor: Biden win means war with Iran, warns Israeli minister
Stars and Stripes: As Tensions Simmer, Pacific Air Forces Leaders Say Troops Must Be Ready For Conflict With China
Navy Times: With An Eye On China, U.S. Navy Joins India, Japan And Australia For Malabar Exercise
Washington Post: China is awash with schadenfreude over U.S. election tumult
Reuters: Iran Foreign Minister, In Ally Venezuela, Says U.S. No Longer “Controls World”
Stars and Stripes: Proposed Troop Drawdown In Germany Complicates Plans To Hand Back Military Land
Washington Post: Navy’s Football Game Against Tulsa Postponed Because Of Coronavirus Cases At The Academy
Washington Post: Opinion: The election has already changed the politics of U.S. foreign policy
Washington Examiner: Opinion: US must defeat China’s ‘D-Day’ trade attack on Australia
Calendar
FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 6
9 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual 2020 Joint Armaments, Robotics and Munitions Digital Experience, with Assistant Defense Secretary for Acquisition Kevin Fahey. https://www.ndia.org/events
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Enabling the 21st Century Operator,” with Joint Artificial Intelligence Center Director Lt. Gen. Michael Groen. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
2:30 p.m. — University of Washington Space Policy and Research Center (SPARC) Symposium, with remarks by Maj. Gen. John Shaw, commander, Combined Force U.S. Space Component Command; and Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash. https://www.sparc.uw.edu/2020-symposium
MONDAY | NOVEMBER 9
12:30 p.m. — American Enterprise Institute web event: “A hard look at the defense capabilities of allies and partners,” with Hal Brands, resident scholar, AEI; Gary Schmitt, resident scholar in strategic studies, AEI; Olivier Schmitt, Center for War Studies, University of Southern Denmark; Ashley Tellis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Toshi Yoshihara, senior fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Livestream: https://www.aei.org/events
TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 10
9 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute webcast: “Gray-zone aggression: Countering a growing national security threat,” with Elisabeth Braw and Pål Jonson of the Swedish Parliament; retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, Cyberspace Solarium Commission; and Hélène Galy of Willis Research Network. https://www.aei.org/events/gray-zone-aggression
10 a.m. — Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute virtual launch of the Center for Freedom and Democracy, with keynote remarks by Secretary Mike Pompeo followed by a conversation with Reagan Institute Director Roger Zakheim. https://www.reaganfoundation.org/
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 12
2 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conference call conversation with Vice Adm. William Galinis, commander, Naval Sea Systems Command. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/
TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 17
11 a.m. — The Heritage Foundation releases its 2021 Index of U.S. Military Strength, with Texas Rep. Mac Thornberry, ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee. https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/virtual-event
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I ask everyone to stay calm, all the people to stay calm. The process is working, the count is being completed, and we’ll know very soon,” Joe Biden.
“I think they should use the word legal, legal votes. We want every legal vote counted,” President Trump.
