Russia frozen out as world leaders gather in Munich to discuss Ukraine

Tomorrow, Harris is scheduled to give a keynote address where she will affirm America’s commitment to support Ukraine and supply its armed forces with what it needs to defend its sovereignty against Russian aggression. She’ll also meet with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, as well as the prime ministers of Finland and Sweden, as the two Nordic countries await a diplomatic breakthrough that would lift the block Turkey has put on their application for NATO membership.

‘NEVER PREDICT AN OUTCOME’: AUSTIN UNSURE IF WAR IN UKRAINE WILL LAST ANOTHER YEAR

BLINKEN’S POSSIBLE BALLOON DIPLOMACY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Moldovan President Maia Sandu today, but there is also an expectation that Blinken may be able to conduct some “balloon diplomacy” in a side meeting with his Chinese counterpart.

The balloon incident prompted Blinken to cancel a planned trip to Beijing, and in a phone call on Feb. 3, Blinken told Wang Yi the incursion by the spy balloon was “an irresponsible act and a clear violation of U.S. sovereignty and international law.”

Yesterday, President Joe Biden essentially cleared China of any responsibility regarding the three subsequent balloons that were shot down over North America.

“We don’t yet know exactly what these three objects were, but nothing right now suggests they were related to China’s spy balloon program or that they were surveillance vehicles from any other country,” Biden said. “The intelligence community’s current assessment is that these three objects were most likely balloons tied to private companies, recreation or research institutions, studied weather or conducting other scientific research.”

STATE DEPARTMENT EXPECTS NO ‘NEW POLICY’ FROM BIDEN SPY BALLOON RESPONSE

WHO ELSE IS THERE: Along with Harris and Blinken, there is a 15-member bipartisan congressional delegation led by Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) representing the U.S. The other 13 are:

• Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)
• Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE)
• Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)
• Sen. Richard Durbin (D-IL)
• Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM)
• Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)
• Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ)
• Sen. Angus King (I-ME)
• Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
• Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID)
• Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)
• Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL)
• Rep. David Cicilline (D-RI)

The lawmakers have kept “CODEL McCain” as their call sign in honor of the late Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who led the delegation for years until his death in 2018.

WATCH ON YOUTUBE: https://www.youtube.com/@MunSecConf

BAD TIMING: Just as hundreds of people are traveling to Munich for the annual security conference, airport workers have walked off the job at seven German airports, including in Munich, Frankfurt, and Hamburg. Thousands of flights to and from Germany have been canceled today, affecting 300,000 passengers.

The union workers are demanding a 10.5% pay increase to make up for Germany’s soaring inflation.

NEW HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN MICHAEL MCCAUL HAS CHINA ON HIS MIND

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DOD TO PAY FOR ABORTION TRAVEL: The Pentagon has released guidelines for service members who are pregnant or seek administrative leave for “non-covered reproductive health care,” which generally refers to leave allowing for travel to a state where abortion is legal.

In a memo issued last October, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin directed the department to ensure servicemembers and their families can access non-covered reproductive healthcare. The guidelines released yesterday provide for up to 21 days of time off as well as travel expenses when “access to non-covered reproductive health care services is not available within the local area of the member’s permanent duty station, temporary duty location, or the last location the dependent was transported on government orders.”

“The non-covered reproductive health care is at the servicemember’s expense,” the policy states.

‘HEAVY-HANDED, FAR-LEFT SOCIAL POLICY’: The announcement drew an immediate outcry from the top Republicans on the House and Senate Armed Services committees.

“Today, the Biden administration chose to make the Department of Defense an abortion travel agency over a lethal fighting force,” said House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) in a statement. “As I have repeatedly told the political leaders of this administration, taking this action jeopardizes congressional authorizations for our warfighters. I am extremely disappointed the Biden administration chose once again to use our military to placate the radical left.”

“Heavy-handed, far-left social policy has no place at the Department of Defense,” said Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“I am deeply troubled by the announcement that the Biden Administration is considering the use of taxpayer dollars to assist in the performance of abortions,” Wicker said in his statement. “The Pentagon should be singularly focused on improving readiness and lethality, and there is no compelling argument or data that shows aiding abortions helps us complete that mission.”

SENATORS FLOAT MORE DEFENSE SPENDING FOLLOWING CHINESE SPY BALLOON INCIDENT

RUBIO, BANKS WANT NEW TRANSGENDER RESTRICTIONS: Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) has introduced a bill that would bar transgender troops from serving in the military unless they serve in their birth gender. A companion bill is being introduced in the House by Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN).

The Ensuring Military Readiness Act would repeal the Biden administration policy that allows transgender troops to serve openly and would reinstate some policies that were in effect during the Trump administration.

“Persons who identify as transgender with a history of diagnosis of gender dysphoria are disqualified from military service except under … limited circumstances,” the proposed legislation states.

“The military has strict standards for who can and cannot qualify to serve. For example, under President Biden, you can’t serve with a peanut allergy. Biden has turned our military into a woke social experiment,” said Rubio in a statement. “It is a stupid way to go about protecting our nation. We need to spend more time thinking about how to counter threats like China, Russia, and North Korea and less time thinking about pronouns.”

TOP REPUBLICANS CALL FOR MORE AID FOR TAIWAN: The top Republicans on the House and Senate Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees are urging Biden to increase foreign military financing for Taiwan in his upcoming budget request.

“Your National Security Strategy has identified China as the top geopolitical challenge facing the United States,” the GOP members said in a letter to the president. “However, your administration has consistently failed to act with the seriousness and urgency needed to arm and equip Taiwan.”

“Bipartisan legislation authorized up to $2 billion in FMF grants to Taiwan for each of the fiscal years 2023 through 2027, which would allow the United States and Taiwan to engage in joint long-term planning for the acquisition, deployment, and sustainment of critical capabilities. TERA also authorized $1 billion a year in drawdown authority for Taiwan, which could immediately strengthen deterrence in the Taiwan Strait and dramatically accelerate training,” said the letter, which was signed by Sens. Jim Risch (R-ID) and Roger Wicker (R-MS), along with Reps. Michael McCaul (R-TX) and Mike Rogers (R-AL).

US HAS ‘GROWING CONCERN’ OVER CHINA’S RELATIONSHIP WITH RUSSIA

INDUSTRY WATCH: DUTCH ARMING UP WITH HIMARS: After Ukrainian armed forces used them to devastating effect against Russia, HIMARS, Lockheed Martin’s High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, is on every NATO member’s shopping list.

The State Department has approved the sale of 20 M142 HIMARS launchers, along with 39 M30A2 GMLRS missile pods (short for Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System), to the Netherlands, a founding member of the NATO alliance, for $670 million.

“The proposed sale will improve the Netherlands’ military goals of updating capability while further enhancing interoperability with the United States and other allies,” the Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a statement. “The Netherlands intends to use these defense articles and services to modernize its armed forces and expand its capability to strengthen its homeland defense and deter regional threats.”

NORAD INTERCEPTS RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT IN BACK-TO-BACK DAYS

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Biden says no evidence of ‘sudden increase’ of aerial objects in US airspace

Washington Examiner: State Department expects no ‘new policy’ from Biden spy balloon response

Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin keeps lines of communication open with China after balloon incursion

Washington Examiner: New House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul has China on his mind

Washington Examiner: Senators float more defense spending following Chinese spy balloon incident

Washington Examiner: US has ‘growing concern’ over China’s relationship with Russia

Washington Examiner: ‘Never predict an outcome’: Austin unsure if war in Ukraine will last another year

Washington Examiner: Senators push to designate Russia’s Wagner Group as a terrorist organization

Washington Examiner: NORAD intercepts Russian aircraft in back-to-back days

Washington Examiner: Analysis: The shallow soil of Russian victories in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: FBI official warns of Chinese hacker threats to US infrastructure

Washington Examiner: Hawley calls for Biden administration to focus on China instead of Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Artificial intelligence should not control nuclear weapons use, officials say

Washington Examiner: US and Iran hold indirect talks on prisoner exchange with aid of UK and Qatar: Report

Washington Examiner: Navy ends COVID-19 vaccine deployment restrictions

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Attack of the balloons! Inflated peril or real-world danger?

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Up, up, and away

Financial Times: Pentagon’s Top China Official to Visit Taiwan amid Rising Bilateral Tensions

Reuters: Taiwan Finds Crashed Weather Balloon On Remote Island, Likely Chinese

BBC: Holding Out Against China In A Row Over Reefs

Politico: Blinken: Crimea a ‘Red Line’ for Putin as Ukraine Weighs Plans to Retake It

Washington Post: Ukrainians Dig Fallback Defenses In The East

AP: Tank plant in small Ohio city plays big role in Ukraine war

CNN: Ukraine Is Burning Through Ammunition Faster Than The U.S. And NATO Can Produce It. Inside The Pentagon’s Plan To Close The Gap

Washington Post: Belarus To Join Fight Only If Attacked, Lukashenko Asserts

Defense One: US Woos Other Nations for Military-AI Ethics Pact

Defense One: Fix Navy Infrastructure’s ‘Worst Problems’ First, Secretary Says

Breaking Defense: Sentinel ICBM ‘On Track’ for Flight Test This Year: Senior USAF Official

19fortyfive.com: China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter Has One Big Advantage over America

AP: Ukrainian refugees safe, but not at peace, after year at war

Newsweek: Russian Fears Explain Reluctance to Deploy Air Force over Ukraine—UK

19fortyfive.com: Putin Has a Problem: His Tanks Are Getting Slaughtered in Ukraine

19fortyfive.com: Putin Is Smiling: Ukraine Won’t Get As Many Leopard 2 Tanks As Promised

19fortyfive.com: Iran’s Drones are Fueling Putin’s Evil War in Ukraine

Air & Space Forces Magazine: GE Says New F-35 Engine Would Refresh Propulsion Industrial Base

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Autonomous C-130s and C-17s? Air Force Invests in Feasibility Study

Military.com: Spouse Satisfaction with Military Life at a New Low, DOD Survey Finds

Calendar

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 17

Munich, Germany — Munich Security Conference 2023 begins, running through Sunday, Feb. 19. Agenda of livestreams here

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program webcast: “One Year Later: Assessing Russia’s War In Ukraine,” with Michael Vickers, former undersecretary of defense for intelligence and CIA operations officer; Seth Jones, senior vice president and director, International Security Program, CSIS; Emily Harding, deputy director and senior fellow, International Security Program, CSIS; and Eliot Cohen, Arleigh A. Burke chair in strategy, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/one-year-later

2 p.m. Intelligence Squared virtual live debate recording: “Should The U.S. Ban TikTok?” with Kori Schake, senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy studies, American Enterprise Institute, arguing “Yes”; and Milton Mueller, professor, Georgia Institute of Technology School of Public Policy, founder and director, Internet Governance Project, arguing “No.” Moderated by John Donvan https://www.workcast.com/register

SATURDAY | FEBRUARY 18

9:30 a.m. Munich, Germany — Munich Security Conference panel discussion: “Conversation on the Role of Intelligence & Putin’s War in Ukraine,” with House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rep. Michael Turner (R-OH); and CIA Director William Burns. Livestream: https://webcast.framework.techcast.com/en/techcast/msc-2023-19

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 21

9 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute podcast The Eastern Front and American Purpose event: “Russia’s War on Ukraine at Year One,” with retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, former supreme allied commander; retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe; retired Adm. Jamie Foggo, former commander of U.S. Naval Forces Europe; Iulia Joja, senior fellow, Middle East Institute; Giselle Donnelly, senior fellow in defense and national security at AEI; and Dalibor Rohac, senior fellow, AEI https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” event with Air Force Lt. Gen. James Slife, deputy chief of staff for operations; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event

10:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual event: “A Mid-Term Report Card for Biden’s North Korea Policy,” with Robert Carlin, nonresident fellow, 38 North, nonresident scholar, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies; Susan Thornton, visiting lecturer in law and senior fellow, Paul Tsai China Center; Jenny Town, senior fellow, Stimson Center, director, 38 North; and Robert Gallucci, distinguished professor, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service; and Joel Wit, distinguished fellow in Asian and security studies, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/a-mid-term-report-card-for-bidens-north-korea-policy

12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” virtual book discussion of Remember the Ramrods: An Army Brotherhood in War and Peace, with author and Medal of Honor recipient David Bellavia, the only living recipient of the nation’s highest valor award for actions in Iraq https://www.bigmarker.com/ausaorg/Remember-the-Ramrods

1 p.m. — Hudson Institute discussion: “Lessons of Ukraine for the Role of Values in Foreign Policy,” with Nicole Bibbins Sedaca, executive vice president, Freedom House; Richard Fontaine, CEO, Center for a New American Security; Ash Jain, director for democratic order, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council; and Tod Lindberg, senior fellow, Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/lessons-ukraine-role-values-foreign-policy

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 22

9:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Assessing US Military Assistance to Ukraine,” with Missy Ryan, the Washington Post; Elias Yousif, research analyst, Stimson Center; and Rachel Stohl, director, Conventional Defense Program, vice president, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/assessing-us-military-assistance-to-ukraine

10 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress Russia Policy Program virtual event: “The Militaries of Russia and Ukraine One Year Into the War,” with retired Lt. Gen. David Barno and Nora Bensahel, authors of Adaptation Under Fire; Michael Kofman, director of CNA’s Russia Studies Program; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence & Global Affairs https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

3 p.m. — CSIS International Security Program book launch: Information in War – Military Innovation, Battle Networks, and the Future of Artificial Intelligence, with Benjamin Jensen, senior fellow of future war, gaming, and strategy, CSIS International Security Program; Marine Corps Lt. Col. Scott Cuomo; and Kathleen McInnis, senior fellow in the International Security Program, and director of the Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative at CSIS. https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-information-war

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 23

8 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, Va. — Association of the U.S. Army daylong in-person aviation “Hot Topic” event: “40th Anniversary of the Aviation Branch: Honoring the Past and Transforming for the Future,” with Douglas Bush, assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics and technology; Maj. Gen. Michael McCurry, commanding general of the U.S. Army Aviation Center of Excellence and Fort Rucker, Ala.; Maj. Gen. William Taylor, director of Army aviation in the office of the deputy Army chief of staff for operations; and Maj. Gen. Thomas O’Connor, commander of the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command. https://www.ausa.org/events/hot-topics/army-aviation

1:30 p.m. — The Cipher Brief virtual briefing: “DIA’s Global Intelligence Picture,” with Trent Maul, director for analysis, Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.thecipherbrief.com

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 24

8 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation with Jessica Lewis, assistant secretary of state, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs. Email Thom Shanker at [email protected]

2:15 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research in-person discussion: “Russia’s War on Ukraine: What Lies Ahead in 2023?” with Leon Aron, senior fellow, AEI; George Barros, Russia analyst, Institute for the Study of War; Nataliya Bugayova, nonresident Russia fellow, ISW; Mason Clark, senior analyst, ISW; Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia analyst, ISW; Karolina Hird, Russia analyst, ISW; Frederick Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project, AEI; Kimberly Kagan, president, ISW; former Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH); and Dalibor Rohac, senior fellow, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/russias-war-on-ukraine-what-lies-ahead