A UFO invasion? Or shadow boxing with ‘sky trash’?

“I’m not going to categorize them as balloons. We’re calling them objects for a reason,” VanHerck told reporters. “What we are seeing is very, very small objects that produce a very, very low radar cross-section,” he added. The Saturday object was described as cylindrical by Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand. All three objects shared one common characteristic: they were slow-moving with no obvious propulsion system.

“I’m not able to categorize how they stay aloft. It could be a gaseous type of balloon inside a structure or it could be some type of a propulsion system. But clearly, they’re able to stay aloft,” VanHerck said last night. “I would be hesitant and urge you not to attribute it to any specific country. We don’t know.”

“Based on its flight path and data, we can reasonably connect this object to the radar signal picked up over Montana, which flew in proximity to sensitive DOD sites,” said Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder of the third object. “Based on the recommendations of Secretary Austin and military leadership, an F-16 fired an AIM9x to successfully shoot down an airborne object flying at approximately 20,000 feet altitude,” added Ryder in a statement.

US SHOOTS DOWN THIRD UNIDENTIFIED FLYING OBJECT THIS WEEKEND

WE’VE ‘ADJUSTED THE GATES’: One explanation for the sudden onslaught of UFOs is that after the discovery of a “domain awareness gap” that allowed a Chinese spy balloon to go undetected, the U.S. has fine-tuned its radars to track slower and smaller airborne objects.

“In light of the People’s Republic of China balloon that we took down last Saturday, we have been more closely scrutinizing our airspace at these altitudes, including enhancing our radar, which may at least partly explain the increase in objects that we’ve detected over the past week,” said Melissa Dalton, assistant defense secretary for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs at last night’s Pentagon briefing.

As they await answers, frustration is growing among members of Congress who complain that the joint U.S.-Canadian air defense system appears to be woefully behind the times. “What’s gone on in the last two weeks or so, 10 days, has been nothing short of craziness,” said Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) on CBS’s Face the Nation. “The military needs to have a plan to not only determine what’s out there, but determine the dangers that go with it.”

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT THE UPTICK IN MYSTERY OBJECTS BEING SHOT DOWN FROM U.S. AIRSPACE

THREAT OR ‘SKY TRASH’? What we’re learning is until very recently, the U.S. basically ignored small objects that seemed to pose no threat as its radars scanned the skies. “We’re not filtering out slow moving objects as per usual,” one U.S.-based security source told Soldier of Fortune magazine last night.

On CBS, veteran national security correspondent David Martin said it’s not at all clear that China is behind the three latest UFOs, which he described as “balloon-like objects.”

“The prevailing wind brings everything that way, from west, east across Northern Alaska and Northern Canada. And there is a lot of what officials call ‘sky trash’ up there,” said Martin. “Sky trash includes balloons that are put up by governments, that are put up by corporations, that are put up by research institutes, and probably just by private individuals, and not for nefarious purposes, but just to collect scientific data.”

“In the past, the U.S. just hasn’t paid much attention to those balloons, but this Chinese balloon was a game-changer,” said Martin. “And now, certainly, the Biden administration does not feel it can simply let these other objects pass through American airspace.”

ANALYSIS: WHAT WE CAN INFER FROM THE ALASKA AERIAL OBJECT

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley are traveling to Brussels for tomorrow’s meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to press for Western fighter jets and longer-range missiles.

The contact group meeting will be followed immediately by a NATO Defense Ministerial at NATO Headquarters. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was scheduled to brief reporters ahead of the meeting at 7 a.m. Washington time.

“We need to be prepared for the long haul, to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes,” Stoltenberg said during his visit to Washington last week. “If President Putin wins in Ukraine, it would be a tragedy for the Ukrainians but also dangerous for us. It would send a message to authoritarian leaders, not only President Putin but also in Asia and other places, that when they use military force, they can achieve their goals, and that would make the world more dangerous and also more vulnerable.”

BIDEN TO POLAND, AND BEYOND?: After some hedging by President Joe Biden, the White House announced Biden will in fact travel to Poland for three days next week, arriving one week from today.

Biden is scheduled to meet with a group of eastern flank NATO allies dubbed the “Bucharest Nine,” as well as confer directly with Poland President Andrzej Duda about “collective efforts to support Ukraine and bolster NATO’s deterrence,” according to the White House.

“In addition, President Biden will deliver remarks ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, addressing how the United States has rallied the world to support the people of Ukraine as they defend their freedom and democracy, and how we will continue to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre. 

Bordering Ukraine on the west, Poland has been one of the countries most supportive of Kyiv — not only supplying military assistance, but also taking in nearly 10 million refugees. Poland has also been the main jumping off point for furtive train trips into Ukraine for Western leaders and other foreigners making surprise visits to Kyiv.

For security reasons, the White House would never announce whether Biden would risk a surprise foray into Ukraine on the Feb. 24 anniversary, but he will be right next door earlier in the week.

HAS RUSSIA’S SPRING OFFENSIVE SPRUNG?: Ukraine is girding for what it expects will be an effort by reinforced Russian forces to mount a major attack in the coming days or weeks, but is downplaying Russia’s capability to launch a “sweeping large-scale offensive in Donetsk,” according to a weekend assessment by the Institute for the Study of War.

The Ukrainian general staff says that over the weekend its forces repelled attacks on ten settlements along the eastern front in Donbas that were apparently probing Ukrainian defenses. The ISW quoted Andriy Chernyak, a representative of Ukraine’s main military intelligence directorate, in assessing that Russia does not have the resources necessary to launch a large-scale offensive operation coinciding with the anniversary of last year’s invasion.

“Russian milbloggers continue to appear demoralized at the Kremlin’s prospects for executing a major offensive,” said the ISW, noting that while “Russian forces have regained the initiative on the Svatove-Kreminna line,” the offensive “has not yet reached its full tempo.”

UK MOD: RUSSIA LOSING 800 TROOPS A DAY: The British Defense Ministry over the weekend cited Ukrainian statistics that suggest that over the past two weeks Russia has likely suffered its highest rate of casualties since the first week of its invasion of Ukraine.

While the U.K. intelligence assessment said it couldn’t verify the methodology, it said the trends are likely accurate, posting a chart that shows the uptick in recent weeks.

“The mean average for the last seven days was 824 casualties per day, over four times the rate reported over June-July 2022. Ukraine also continues to suffer a high attrition rate,” the ministry tweeted. “The uptick in Russian casualties is likely due to a range of factors including lack of trained personnel, coordination, and resources across the front — this is exemplified in Vuhledar and Bakhmut.”

THE SHADOW WAR IN SOMALIA: Over the weekend, the U.S. Africa Command revealed that on Friday, the U.S. conducted what it called “a collective self-defense strike” to help the Somali National Army who was engaged in a battle with al-Shabaab fighters about 300 miles northeast of Mogadishu.

“The initial assessment is the strike killed 12 al Shabaab fighters,” AFRICOM said in a statement. “Given the remote location of the operation, the command assesses that no civilians were injured or killed.”

“U.S. Africa Command provides support to the Somali government to address terrorist threats, but we are only part of the U.S. efforts there,” said Gen. Michael Langley, AFRICOM commander.

“Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has publicly stated that economic reform, social and political reconciliation, and religious tolerance are key pillars of his strategy to mobilize society against international terrorists,” the statement said.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: What we know about the uptick in mystery objects being shot down from U.S. airspace

Washington Examiner: US shoots down third unidentified flying object this weekend

Washington Examiner: US official says ‘object’ shot down over Alaska entered US airspace before detection

Washington Examiner: Analysis: What we can infer from the Alaska aerial object

Washington Examiner: Mike Turner warns ‘we don’t really have adequate radar system’ after incidents with flying objects

Washington Examiner: Chuck Schumer says US ‘humiliated’ China by shooting down spy balloon

Washington Examiner: Xi Jinping fumes at US efforts to rally allies against China

Washington Examiner: Editorial: Ban China from buying American farmland

Washington Examiner: ‘We have subpoena power’: McCaul hints at showdown with Biden administration on Afghanistan

Washington Examiner: Gaetz introduces resolution calling for end of US military and financial support of Ukraine

AP: U.S. Holds Drills In South China Sea Amid Tensions With China

AP: China Calls U.S. House Resolution ‘Political Manipulation’

New York Times: China’s Ties to Europe, Built Over Years, Unravel Amid War

Reuters: Philippines’ Marcos Open To A Troop Pact With Japan

Washington Post: Ukraine readies along all fronts for Russia’s next big attack

19fortyfive.com: Warning to China: U.S. Navy Has Aircraft Carrier in South China Sea

Business Insider: Western Forces Are Raiding Gunrunners At Sea And Throwing Wrenches Into Iran’s Plans

19fortyfive.com: India’s Navy Is No Superpower Just Yet

Air & Space Forces Magazine: F-35 Deliveries May Resume by March, as Pratt Says It Has an Engine Fix

Military Times: Fix Coming For F-35 Engine Problem That Froze Fighters’ Deliveries

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Assets, Allies Remain Key for Pentagon’s Basing Strategy

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Here’s What the CSAF Is Reading, Watching, and Listening To This Month

CBS Sports: 2023 Super Bowl: First All-Female U.S. Navy Flyover Takes Place Before Super Bowl 57; Here’s A Look

Calendar

MONDAY | FEBRUARY 13

7 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — Press Conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of a two-day meeting of defense ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

8 a.m. — Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Dana Stroul on-the-record press briefing with senior military and civilian leaders from the Joint Staff, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Air Forces Central, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, and the Defense Security Cooperation Agency to discuss the Department of Defense’s participation in the U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Working Group meetings from Feb. 13-16 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events/

9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Stimson Center virtual and in-person discussion: “The End of History? Global Implications of the War in Ukraine,” with Marie Jourdain, visiting fellow, Atlantic Council; Michael Kofman, research program director, Center for a New American Security; Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow, CNA; Michael Mazarr, senior political scientist, RAND Corporation; and Alex Ward, national security reporter, Politico https://www.stimson.org/event/the-end-of-the-end-of-history

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution virtual and in-person event: “The U.S. Air Force and American defense strategy,” with Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr.; Michael O’Hanlon, Brookings; and Melanie Sisson, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-us-air-force

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion: The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power, with author Daniel Runde, CSIS senior vice president https://www.csis.org/events/book-release

10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Improving sanctions enforcement against Russia: The challenge of 2023,” with Peter Piatetsky, CEO of Castellum.AI; Ellen Wald, president, Transversal Consulting; and Daniel Tannebaum, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/improving-sanctions

10 a.m. — Wilson Center Middle East Program virtual discussion: “Iraq and the U.S,” with Iraqi Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister for International Relations Affairs Fuad Hussain https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/iraq-and-united-states

10 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Innovation and Experimentation: A New Approach for the U.S. Air Force in the Middle East,” with Air Force Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, commander of U.S. Air Forces Central Command https://www.cnas.org/events/mission-brief-grynch

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Restoring the Rule of Law at the Southern Border,” with former Attorney General Bill Barr, fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/restoring-rule-law-southern-border

1 p.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Va.— Exchange Monitor 2023 Nuclear Deterrence Summit,” with Jay Tilden, associate administrator for counterterrorism and counterproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration; and James McConnell, associate principal deputy administrator at the National Nuclear Security Administration https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit-2023/

2 p.m. 2201 C St. NW, — Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman; Japanese Vice Minister Mori Takeo; and Republic of Korea First Vice Minister Cho Hyundong joint media availability after a trilateral meeting to “discuss collaboration on support to Ukraine and other pressing global challenges.” https://www.state.gov

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 14

TBA Brussels, Belgium — Meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group followed by the beginning of a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO Headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Va. — Association of the U.S. Army Coffee Series in-person event with Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Grinston https://ausa.force.com/OnlineCommunity/s/community-event

9 a.m. 201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Preparing for the Dissolution of the Russian Federation,” with Oleksiy Goncharenko, member of the Ukrainian Parliament; Janusz Bugajski, Jamestown Foundation senior fellow; Paul Goble, Jamestown Foundation senior analyst; Natalia Arno, president of the Free Russia Foundation; Inal Sherip, foreign minister of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria; Frederick Starr, founding chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program; Temuri Yakobashvili, former Georgian Ambassador to the U.S.; and Luke Coffey, Hudson Institute senior fellow https://www.hudson.org/events/preparing-dissolution-russian-federation

9 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Implementation of the Trusted Workforce 2.0 initiative,” with Bill Lietzau, director of the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency; and Suzanne Wilson, INSA president https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event

10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “What does Ukraine need to win in 2023?” with former Supreme Allied Commander Europe Army Gen. Wesley Clark; former Canadian Defense Staff Chief Gen. Rick Hillier; retired Army Gen. David Petraeus, chairman of the KKR Global Institute and former CIA director; and retired Australian Defense Force Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan, adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/what-does-ukraine-need-to-win

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Schriever Spacepower Forum “Space infrastructure, space capabilities and defining the threat environment,” with John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/feb-14

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Securing Cyberspace: Hardening America’s Software against Foreign Digital Sabotage,” Rep. Tony Gonzales, (R-TX); Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; Jason Weiss, chief software officer, Conquest Cyber; Cliff Bean, director of Navy missions, Defense Sector, Peraton https://www.hudson.org/preview-link

11:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments Zoom webinar to release new report: “Innovating for Great Power Competition: An Examination of Service and Joint Innovation Efforts,” with authors Thomas Mahnken, CSBA president and CEO; Evan Montgomery, CSBA director of research and studies; and Tyler Hacker, CSBA analyst https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register

11:30 a.m. —Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual discussion: “Innovating for Great Power Competition: An Examination of Service and Joint Innovation Efforts,” with Thomas Mahnken, CSBA president and CEO; Evan Montgomery, CSBA director of research and studies; and Tyler Hacker, CSBA analyst https://csbaonline.org/about/events/report-release-webinar

12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “Ukrainian Public Opinion and the War,” with Volodymyr Ishchenko, Ukrainian research associate at the Institute of East European Studies; Gerard Toal, professor at Virginia Polytechnic; Albina Kovalyova, director-producer at BBC Eye Investigations; and Anatol Lieven, director of the Quincy Institute’s Eurasia Program https://quincyinst.org/event/ukrainian-public-opinion-and-the-war/

12 p.m. — New America virtual book discussion: Without Borders: The Haqqani Network and the Road to Kabul, with author Jere Van Dyk https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/events

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 15

8:30 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Va. — Exchange Monitor Nuclear Deterrence Summit,” with Marvin Adams, deputy administrator for defense programs at the National Nuclear Security Administration; Richard Johnson, deputy assistant defense secretary for nuclear/countering weapons of mass destruction policy; Drew Walter, deputy assistant defense secretary for nuclear matters; Rear Adm. Scott Pappano, Navy Strategic Submarines Program executive officer; and Brig. Gen. Ty Neuman, director of Air Force concepts and strategy https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit-2023/

6 a.m. — International Institute for Strategic Studies virtual launch of the 2023 edition of The Military Balance, with John Chipman, CEO and director general of IISS; James Hackett, editor of The Military Balance and senior fellow for defense and military analysis at IISS; Fenella McGerty, senior fellow for defense economics at IISS; Meia Nouwens, senior fellow for Chinese security and defense policy at IISS; Henry Boyd, research fellow for defense and military analysis at IISS; Nick Childs, senior fellow for naval forces and maritime security at IISS; Bastian Giegerich, director of defense and military analysis at IISS; Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at IISS; and Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at IISS https://www.iiss.org/events/2023/02/the-military-balance-2023-launch

8 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “China-Russia Relations One Year into the Ukraine War,” with Li Mingjiang, associate professor at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; and Hoang Thi Ha, senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute; Paul Haenle, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/15/china-russia-relations

9 a.m. — Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion: “Challenging China’s Critical Mineral Dominance,” with Par Weihed, pro vice chancellor and professor of ore geology at Lulea University, Sweden; Cullen Hendrix, senior fellow at PIIE; and Cecilia Malmstrom, nonresident senior fellow at PIIE https://www.piie.com/events/challenging-chinas-critical-mineral-dominance

1 p.m. — Wilson Center Polar Institute and the U.S. Arctic Research Commission release: “Report on the Goals and Objectives for Arctic Research 2023-2024,” with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK); James Ulvestad, acting director, National Science Foundation’s Office of Polar Programs; David Balton, executive director, Office of Science and Technology Policy’s Arctic Executive Steering Committee; Derek Chollet, State Department counselor; and Larry Hinzman, assistant director of polar science at the Office of Science and Technology Policy https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/release-us-arctic-research-commission

2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Henry L. Stimson Center discussion: “Lessons from Ukraine for Maritime East Asia,” with Susumu Takai, president of the Security Strategy Research Institute of Japan; Yurika Ishii, associate professor at the National Defense Academy of Japan; and Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Stimson Center’s Japan Program https://www.stimson.org/event/lessons-from-ukraine-for-maritime-east-asia

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 16

8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Va. — Potomac Officers Club annual Artificial Intelligence Summit, with Craig Martell, chief digital and artificial intelligence officer at the Defense Department; and Lakshmi Raman, director of artificial intelligence at the CIA https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-4th-annual-artificial-intelligence-summi

9:30 a.m. — Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty virtual discussion: “Clearing the Air: Russian Disinformation and the War in Ukraine,” with Ukrainian Minister of Culture and Information Policy Oleksandr Tkachenko; Olga Rudenko, chief editor of the Kyiv Independent; Peter Dickinson, chief editor of Business Ukraine magazine; and Natalie Sedletska, acting Kyiv bureau chief of RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service https://zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “China and Ukraine: A Time for Truth,” with Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) https://www.heritage.org/asia/event/china-and-ukraine-time-truth

12 p.m. 7805 Regents Dr., College Park, Md. — University of Maryland Center for International and Security Studies Global Forum: “Black Sea Security Conundrum: Implications of Russia’s War on Ukraine,” with Volodymyr Dubovyk, associate professor at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University https://cissm.umd.edu/events/cissm-global-forum

12 p.m. — McCain Institute virtual book discussion: Lessons from the Edge: A Memoir, focusing on advancing democracy in the post-Soviet world and the first impeachment of former President Donald Trump, with author and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events

12:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual Global Risk Conference: “Russia and the West: All Bridges Burned?” with Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder and chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator; Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies; and Kadri Liik, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies discussion: “The Implications of Russia’s War on Ukraine: Identity, Politics, Governance,” with Volodymyr Dubovyk, associate professor at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/implications-russias-war-ukraine

4:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: “Entering a New Era for US-Japan Defense Integration,” with James Schoff, senior director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation’s U.S.-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

4:30 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The North Korean Threat and Allied Policy Options,” with Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-north-korean-threat

4:30 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Inside Look at Biden’s Ukraine Strategy,” with Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/16/carnegie-connects

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 17

TBA Munich, Germany — Munich Security Conference 2023 begins, running through Sunday, Feb. 19 https://securityconference.org