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A CAUTIONARY TALE: It’s a classic Washington power struggle. Who knows best when it comes to what planes and weapon systems best serve our warfighters on the front lines? The Congress? Or the military? Yesterday, Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson was practically begging members of the Senate Appropriations Committee not to force the Air Force to spend $6.5 billion on a new version of the Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System aircraft, or JSTARS, which was state-of-the-art back during the 1991 Persian Gulf War. “A new version of JSTARS, the Boeing 707-sized airplane that flies over our Army and tells them what’s in front of them on the ground, can’t get close enough on the first day of any fight, particularly, against Russia,” argued Wilson in her opening statement. “Russian and Chinese surface-to-air missiles have more range and the plane would be shot down in that first day of conflict.” She urged senators to shoot down a proposal in the House Armed Services Committee version of the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act, which would require replacing the current fleet of 17 Northrop Grumman JSTARS E-8C aircraft and begin with an initial appropriation of $623 million. “I would ask for your thoughtful consideration of this particular issue,” Wilson said with all the tact she could muster. Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Northrop Grumman are would-be competitors for the program. BELT AND SUSPENDERS? Wilson argued what the Air Force really needs is technology that can fuse data from space as well as manned and unmanned platforms to protect forces on the battlefield. “The question arises, could we do both? Could we recapitalize JSTARS and also build an advanced battle management system that could operate in a contested environment?” Wilson asked the senators. “Yes, we could do both, and it costs about $7 billion more than what we’ve proposed in our budget.” As the late Sen. Everett Dirksen apparently never actually said, “A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon, you’re talking real money.” THE SR-71 AND A-10, DIFFERENT LESSONS: It’s not always the case the military is right when it rejects weapons it claims to no longer need. Driven by the tight constraints of Obama-era budgets and congressionally-imposed spending limits, the Air Force had proposed retiring the highly-effective A-10 “Warthog” ground-attack plane, only to be beaten back by a strong “save the A-10” push lead by former Warthog squadron commander Rep. Martha McSally. The A-10s are no longer on the chopping block, and in heavy use on the front lines around the world, including just this week in Afghanistan. On the other hand, you have the ill-conceived decision by Congress in 1995 to reactive the mothballed SR-71 Blackbird (arguably the coolest plane ever) to provide more intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance over Bosnia. The Blackbird, which can fly at more than three times the speed of sound, was spectacularly unsuited for flying over tiny Bosnia, and was never used. Even back then, it was obvious the future of surveillance was the slow-flying Predator drone that can loiter, not supersonic space planes designed during the Cold War to outrun Soviet air defenses. Congress, in its wisdom, funded the reactivation of the SR-71 for four years at a cost of $250 million. It was permanently retired in 1999. PROCUREMENT, THE BIGGEST LOSER: The JSTARS fight also illustrates a central tension within the defense budget President Trump sent to Congress, according to a newly released analysis by Mackenzie Eaglen at the American Enterprise Institute. The overall topline for defense spending in 2019 has been hiked up to $716 billion by Congress’ two-year budget deal. But Eaglen found that weapons buying is the “clear loser in 2019” and would drop by nearly 4 percent over the previous year. The bulk of increases would go to operations and maintenance to support existing troops and weapons, as well as research and development of weapons that are years into the future. “This shortfall comes at a particularly risky time as the looming bow wave of procurement arrives due to the increasing age and wear and tear on many of the Pentagon’s core weapons systems, from aircraft to tanks to ships,” she writes. “Throughout the 2020s, these systems will generally age past the point of obsolescence and require near simultaneous replacement en masse.” The Trump defense budget has created what Eaglen calls a barbell-shaped budget that could cause security risks in the next five years or so. “A capabilities-based budget sends an unambiguous signal to would-be competitors: The American military will bottom out in the 2020s,” according to Eaglen. NOT JUST AN AIR FORCE ISSUE: Aircraft procurement is the biggest net loser for the Air Force, mostly due to its planned JSTARS cancellation. But the other services would see decreases under Trump’s budget plan:
RIDERS IN THE SKY: At the same hearing, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein praised the two-year budget deal that fully funds the Pentagon for laying the foundation for a full recovery from the budget woes of the last five years. “Pilots join to fly and this budget gets them back in the air,” Goldfein said. “In 2016, our pilots averaged just 17 hours of flying time per month. And we advanced that number to 19 hours per month in FY ’18. And with this budget, we begin restoring pilot proficiency to 21 hours per month in FY ’19.” A shortage of more than 4,000 maintainers in 2016 will be eliminated in 2018, Goldfein said. Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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NDAA AMENDMENTS PILE UP: The House is prepping the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act for a floor vote and lawmakers’ proposed amendments are pouring in. More than 530 had been filed Thursday with the House Rules Committee and that number will continue to climb in the coming days, a spokeswoman said. The committee is set to meet Tuesday to tee up the NDAA for its full House vote. Here are some of the proposals that lawmakers could be voting on when it gets to the floor:
THE CHAIRMAN’S VIEW: Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford is back in Washington after spending most of the week in meetings with his military counterparts at NATO’s spanking new headquarters building in Brussels. On the flight back to Joint Base Andrews, Dunford spoke the small group of reporters traveling with him, including your Daily on Defense correspondent. Here’s his take on some of the issues we quizzed him about as he sat with us in the back of his plane: U.S.-South Korea military exercises “These exercises are critical to maintaining a high level of readiness. We don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow. There is an expression on the Korean Peninsula, ‘fight tonight,’ and that’s what the forces are expected to be able to do. These exercises are not designed towards North Korea. They are not designed to be provocative. They are designed to maintain a high level of readiness. These are consistent in both the size and the scope of the exercise with previous years.” Countering Iran “We have always looked at Iran through the lens of five challenges they present. There’s a nuclear challenge. There’s a missile challenge. There’s the sponsors of proxies. There’s a cyber challenge. And then there’s a threat to the maritime domains. The purpose of our posture in the Middle East, specifically vis-à-vis Iran, is deterrence. We’re gonna make sure our posture is effective in deterring Iran and that’s going to take into account the operational environment at any given time.” China’s militarization of the South China Sea “This is not a military problem. This is about undermining the rules-based order that has existed in the Pacific for the last 70 years. These territorial disputes should be handled in a legal way, and might doesn’t make right. The military dimension — being flying, sailing, operating whenever international law allows — is but one dimension of an overall approach that is going to involve the diplomatic and economic tools necessary to make sure we sustain.” Progress in Syria “The SDF [Syrian Democratic Forces] are clearing out the remaining pockets of ISIS, so where they actually hold ground. There’s also thousands of local forces that are being trained in order to assume responsibility for security in the areas that have been cleared. This is all going to take place over the coming months. I wouldn’t put a timeline to it, but once the SDF got back in the fight here a couple of weeks ago, the clearance is going pretty well down by the Abu Kamal area. It’s going to take obviously some time to grow local security forces. And then in the meantime, and importantly Secretary [of State Mike] Pompeo and his team are energizing the approach to the Geneva process to get a political settlement.” On the Iraqi elections and the growing political influence of former foe Muqtada al-Sadr “Look, you know since 2003 we’ve been talking about getting Iraq to the point where the Iraqi people could determine their own fate, and so this is what they are doing right now. … What I think is important right now is that the will of the Iraqi people get carried out in the formation of a government. And I think it would be wholly inappropriate for me to talk about political figures in Iraq and question the judgment of the Iraqi people.” ‘TREMENDOUS’ PROGRESS: The failed Taliban attack on the Afghanistan provincial capital of Farah this week shows that Trump’s new strategy for the country is working, said Dana White, chief Pentagon spokesperson. “Our Afghan partners’ success in places like Farah are a testament to the tremendous improvements in the Afghan national army, Afghan special security forces, and the Afghan air force,” White said. Afghan security forces reportedly suffered about 25 casualties but were able to repel the major offensive on Farah and kill 28 Taliban fighters with backing by U.S. warplanes, drones and military advisers there. White said Afghanistan has stood up six army corps nationwide to provide security and that effort is paying off with more effective operations in the war, which is the longest in U.S. history. “This is a great milestone for Afghanistan that will allow for coordinated campaigns as they take the fight to the Taliban throughout the country,” she said. MEME MISFIRE: The Afghan security forces repelled the Taliban in Farah but the victory appears to have come with significant casualties. That might be why a lighthearted tweet about the battle from the Air Force’s official Twitter feed sparked a backlash. “The Taliban Forces in Farah city #Afghanistan would much rather have heard #Yanny or #Laurel than the deafening ‘BRRRT’ they got courtesy of our A10,” the service tweeted Thursday morning. By midday, White was being questioned during the Pentagon press gaggle about whether the tweet was appropriate given the casualties. “We are working by, with and through these partners and they are dying to secure their own future and I think that shouldn’t be forgotten in any of this,” White said. The Air Force later deleted the tweet, admitting it was a bad idea. “We apologize for the earlier tweet regarding the A-10. It was made in poor taste and we are addressing it internally. It has since been removed.” RUBIO VS. DIPLOMAT: Sen. Marco Rubio is accusing a U.S. diplomat of undercutting Trump’s effort to negotiate with North Korea by suggesting the U.S. might accept a “partial” surrender of its nuclear weapons at the start of the talks. “She is in Tokyo undermining [Trump] by advocating for partial surrender of nukes by [North Korea] as acceptable,” Rubio argued, irked by a comment by Susan Thornton, acting assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, whose nomination for a permanent post is pending. Thornton was quoted as suggesting a give-and-take between North Korea and the U.S. at the outset of the negotiating process. WE HAVE A DIRECTOR: Gina Haspel won easy confirmation in a bipartisan vote in the Senate yesterday, clearing the way for her to become the first woman to lead the CIA. Trump tweeted his congratulations after her nomination was affirmed by a comfortable 54-45 tally. SUMMIT’S STILL ON: Trump said Thursday his administration is proceeding with North Korea “like nothing happened,” days after officials in Pyongyang threatened to call off a summit between the leaders of both countries. “North Korea’s actually talking to us about times and everything else as though nothing happened,” Trump told reporters during an Oval Office meeting with NATO’s secretary general. “We have not been told anything. We’re just reading stories like you are.” KOREAN MODEL, NOT LIBYAN: Trump flatly dismissed national security adviser John Bolton’s suggestion that the “Libya model,” might be a blueprint for a deal with North Korea. But at the same time, Trump conflated the Libya model of 2003, which dealt with Libya’s nuclear program, with the Libya war of 2011, which ended up toppling Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, who was killed by his enemies. “Well, the Libyan model isn’t a model that we have at all when we’re thinking of North Korea. In Libya, we decimated that country. That country was decimated,” Trump said yesterday. What he has in mind is a deal that would essentially promise the North Korean dictator he could retain his grip on power. “There was no deal to keep Gadhafi. The Libyan model that was mentioned was a much different deal. This would be with Kim Jong Un something where he’d be there. He’d be in his country. He’d be running his country. His country would be very rich,” Trump said. “This would be, really, a South Korean model in terms of their industry, in terms of what they do. They’re hardworking incredible people.” F-35’s NEW NICKNAME: Air Force pilots have taken to calling the F-35 Lightning II the “Panther,” according to The Drive. It joins a long list of informal nicknames for planes that already have official Air Force-blessed nicknames, such as the Warthog (really the A-10 Thunderbolt II), the Viper (really the F-16 Fighting Falcon) and the Moose (really the C-17 Globemaster III). THE RUNDOWN Bloomberg: Pentagon says North Korea’s Regime has Staked Its Survival on Nuclear Weapons Defense One: How to Sell a COIN Aircraft in a Great-Power Era Military Times: The military won’t be responsible for immigrant children if they are detained on bases, DoD says Business Insider: Watch the USS Milwaukee test the Longbow Hellfire missile for the first time Defense News: US Navy Still haunted by collisions, even as it adds Milius to 7th Fleet UPI: General Atomics to retrofit MQ-9 Reaper drones Defense Tech: Proposed Cannon Would Turn the B-1 Bomber into a Gunship Roll Call: John McCain Hits the Big Screen Army Times: National Guard stands by to evacuate up to 1,000 from quakes, lava as Hawaii volcano erupts Reuters: Syria’s Assad flies to Russia for talks with Putin: Kremlin Task and Purpose: More US Troops In Niger Were Nearly Wiped Out During Ambush And Chaotic Rescue |
CalendarFRIDAY | MAY 18 7:30 a.m. Georgetown University. Sgt. Maj. of the Army Daniel Dailey speaks at the 100th annual Georgetown University Reserve Officer Training Corps commissioning ceremony. 8:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Future of Force Forum. csis.org 9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. Mitchell Hour on Light Combat Aircraft: Looking at O/A-X and Beyond with Featured Speaker James Dunn, Air Combat Command. mitchellaerospacepower.org 10 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Brokering Peace in Nuclear Environments. carnegieendowment.org 11:30 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. What’s Next After the Iran Deal. carnegieendowment.org MONDAY | MAY 21 11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security – Kennan Institute Lecture. wilsoncenter.org 2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. After ISIS, Will Iraq’s Elections be the Next Step to Stability? usip.org 5 p.m. Russell 232-A. Closed Airland Subcommittee Markup of the Fiscal Year 2019 National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov TUESDAY | MAY 22 8 a.m. 300 First St. SE. Strategic Deterrence Breakfast Series: The North Korean Nuclear and Missile Puzzle. mitchellaerospacepower.org 9 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. North Korea and the Fine Print of a Deal: A View from Congress with Reps. Ted Lieu and Steve Russell. usip.org 9:30 a.m. Russell 232-A. Closed Seapower Subcommittee Markup of the Fiscal Year 2019 National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov 9:30 a.m. Elections in Lebanon and Iraq: Understanding the Results and Implications for U.S. Policy. defenddemocracy.org 10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Reagan’s “Peace through Strength” Cold War Strategy: Integrating Defense, Nuclear Deterrence, Modernization and Arms Control. heritage.org 11 a.m. Russell 232-A. Closed Readiness Subcommittee Markup of the Fiscal Year 2019 National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov 12 noon. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Taking Aim: A Closer Look at the Global Arms Trade. stimson.org 12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW.The Iraqi Elections: Waiting for Sadr and Soleimani. hudson.org 2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Hearing on Lebanon and Iraq: After the Elections. foreignaffairs.house.gov 2:30 p.m. Hart 216. Open Personnel Subcommittee Markup of the Fiscal Year 2019 National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov 3:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. Closed Cybersecurity Subcommittee Markup of the Fiscal Year 2019 National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov 4:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. Closed Emerging Threats Subcommittee Markup of the Fiscal Year 2019 National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov 5:15 p.m. Russell 232-A. Closed Strategic Forces Subcommittee Markup of the Fiscal Year 2019 National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov WEDNESDAY | MAY 23 9 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Hearing on Strengthening American Diplomacy: Reviewing the State Department’s Budget, Operations, and Policy Priorities with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. foreignaffairs.house.gov 9:30 a.m. Russell 222. Full Committee Markup of the Fiscal Year 2019 National Defense Authorization Act. armed-services.senate.gov 9:20 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. Air Force Sustainment Center, a Linchpin of Readiness with Lt. Gen. Lee Levy, Commander of Air Force Sustainment Center. mitchellaerospacepower.org 10 a.m. House Visitor Center 210. ISIS-Post Caliphate: Threat Implications for America and the West. homeland.house.gov 2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Global Views Toward Armed Drones. stimson.org 2:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The Road to NATO’s Brussels Summit with Kay Bailey Hutchison, Permanent Representative of the U.S. to NATO. atlanticcouncil.org THURSDAY | MAY 24 7:30 a.m. 1401 Lee Hwy. AFA Breakfast Series on Capitol Hill Schedule with Gen. Jay Raymond, Commander of Air Force Space Command. afa.org 8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Lt. Gen. Steven Kwast, Commander of Air Education and Training Command. 9:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. experience in Afghanistan with John Sopko, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. brookings.edu 10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Full Committee Hearing Review of the FY 2019 State Department Budget Request. foreign.senate.gov 10 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. Bridging the Military-Civilian Divide Through Film and TV. press.org |
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