BEGINNING OF THE END? Over the weekend, U.S. special representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad hailed “significant progress on vital issues,” after six days of negotiations with the Taliban in Qatar, on ending the war in Afghanistan. “Will build on the momentum and resume talks shortly,” Khalilzad tweeted. “We have a number of issues left to work out. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, and ‘everything’ must include an intra-Afghan dialogue and comprehensive ceasefire.”

HERE WE GO AGAIN: President Trump, stung by his base’s criticism of caving to House Democrats, is threatening to shut the government down again or declare a state of emergency. That is if congressional negotiators — led on the Capitol’s south side by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — don’t cough up funding for more barriers along the U.S. border with Mexico.

In a Wall Street Journal interview, Trump called another partial shutdown “certainly an option.” When asked if he would accept less than $5.7 billion in barrier funding, Trump said, “I doubt it,” adding, “I have to do it right.”

Trump rated the chances Congress would deliver an acceptable compromise “less than 50-50.” Trump also said he’s ready to use his emergency powers if Democrats continue to stymie his plan.

In a tweet yesterday Trump doubled down on his campaign promise, “[D]oes anybody really think I won’t build the WALL? Done more in first two years than any President! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

ANOTHER SHUTDOWN, REALLY? The 800,000 or so federal workers headed back to their jobs face huge backlogs, which will take weeks to sort out. On CBS’s “Face the Nation” host Margaret Brennan asked acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, “Is the president really prepared to shut down the government again in three weeks?”

Mulvaney replied, “Yes, I think he actually is.” Mulvaney added, “Keep in mind, he’s willing to do whatever it takes to secure the border. He does take this very seriously. This is a serious humanitarian and security crisis.”

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., said Trump needs to learn from the experience of the last five weeks. “I don’t think shutdowns are good leverage. It’s a lesson I have certainly learned in my time here,” Rubio said on CNN. “Look, there’s been two shutdowns since the time I have been there, and the aggressor in neither one was the winner.”

On CBS, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, said the shutdown accomplished “absolutely nothing.”  

“Shutdowns are never good policy, ever. They are never to be used as a means to achieve any kind of goal, no matter how important that goal may seem to be. They are ineffective,” Collins said. “They cause tremendous harm to innocent federal employees and their families who are struggling to pay their bills without paychecks. They hurt those who depend on government services.”

DEMS ADAMANT IN WALL OPPOSITION: Democrats have dug in against a wall, and both Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer D-N.Y. and Speaker Pelosi reiterated their opposition Friday, as the president was announcing the government would reopen until Feb. 15.

“Democrats are firmly against the wall, but we agree on many things such as the need for drug inspection technology, humanitarian aid, strengthen security at our ports of entry, and that bodes well for finding an eventual agreement the fact that we have so many areas where we can agree,” Schumer said.

Pelosi associated herself with Schumer’s remarks. “Have I not been clear on a wall? OK. No, I had been very clear on the wall. Yes, very clear.”

CAN A FENCE BRIDGE THE GAP? On CBS, Mulvaney called the Democrats intransigence “silly.”

“The president has already shown everybody what he wants to build, the exact example. It’s not concrete. It’s not 2,000-miles-long. And we have Democrats with hair on fire saying they will never vote for a wall, but they voted for money to build that exact wall,” Mulvaney said. “In fact, something very similar is being built today. They just voted for another $220-odd million for that same — the same thing two days ago. So, we need to get beyond this fight about what’s a wall and what’s a fence and agree that some type of barrier on the border is necessary.”

Sen. Collins offered a compromise position. “I think what will happen is that the efforts to continue to build physical barriers, which have gone on in the last two administrations, will continue, but not to the degree that the president has requested,” she said.

Asked by the Wall Street Journal what form of barrier he would accept, Trump said: “I have to see what it is. As long as it can stop criminals, gangs, human trafficking and drugs, I’m open to anything. But the only thing that will work is a very strong form of physical barrier.”

THE NEGOTIATORS: The bipartisan, bicameral congressional committee is expected to hold its first meeting this week. House Appropriations Committee Chair Nita Lowey D-N.Y. is expected to lead the 17-member panel, composed of seven senators, and 10 House members, including eight Republicans and nine Democrats. Whatever they come up with will have to be able to pass both chambers of Congress and be something President Trump can live with.

One key part of Trump’s Friday announcement was his description of how any compromise would be based on what Homeland Security “experts” recommend. “And experts they are,” Trump said. “Based on operational guidance from the experts in the field, they will put together a Homeland Security package for me to shortly sign into law.”

“You need to bring in professionals. There’s a lack of trust and a lack of belief on both sides,” said Sen. Joe Manchin D-W.Va. on CBS. “I think they can find a balance, if you bring an outside special group in, unbiased and nonpartisan.”

ISRAEL BACKS GUAIDO: Israel announced yesterday its public support for Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s interim president, joining the U.S. and other countries in the diplomatic pressure effort. In seeking out support among its allies, the U.S. urged Israel to back Guaido and recognize him as the new leader, Axios reports. But Israel, which has no diplomatic ties with Venezuela, was wary of doing so out of concern such a move would endanger the 6,000 members of the Jewish community in Venezuela. It has dramatically declined over the past several decades, from 20,000 in 1985. U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman applauded the move, tweeting, “Appreciation and kudos to the Government of Israel for standing with the people of Venezuela and the forces of freedom and democracy.”

COMPLETE WITHDRAWAL? Some U.S. troops may remain in Syria at a remote U.S. base to help oppose Iranian activity, Foreign Policy reported Friday. Despite President Trump’s comments last month that the Islamic State had been defeated, officials claim that the government’s current draw-down troop drawdown from Syria proposal would keep at least some military personnel at the remote base known as the al-Tanf garrison.

Among other things, the area is important because it helps counter Iran’s goal for a “Shiite Crescent,” where a stretch of land could run from Iran to Lebanon and could give Iran the ability to target Israel. However, there is some uncertainty regarding whether it would be legal to keep the U.S. in al-Tanf since the purpose wouldn’t be to oppose ISIS and a case could be made that such a presence isn’t authorized in the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Terrorists.

TEXAS MAN CHARGED FOR ATTEMPTING TO HELP ISIS: An American who was captured by Syrian Democratic Forces in Syria is being detained in the U.S. and was charged last week with attempting to provide material support to the Islamic State.

Warren Christopher Clark, a former substitute teacher in Sugar Land, Texas, had applied to teach English to students within ISIS and had been living in ISIS territory for several years. Clark, who did not fight for ISIS, could have to pay a fine of $250,000, if he’s convicted, and could spend up to 20 years behind bars.

THE RUNDOWN

Breaking Defense: Shutdown Snarls DoD’s 2020 Budget; When Will Congress See It?

Reuters: U.S. doesn’t seek permanent Afghan military presence: official

Washington Post: The Once Vast ISIS ‘Caliphate’ Is Now Reduced To A Pair Of Villages In Syria

Bloomberg: The Pentagon’s Cybersecurity Is Falling Behind

Military Times: Transgender military personnel in limbo over Trump plan

AP: AP-NORC poll: Most Americans oppose Trump’s foreign policy

NPR: Interview: Democratic Rep. Smith Is New Chair Of House Armed Services Panel

Army Times: ‘Up or out’ is on its way out, and it’s time for ‘perform or out,’ Army secretary says

AP: Coast Guard spouses keep to tight budgets as shutdown ends

Defense News: Navy Future Frigate Design Comes Into Focus

National Interest: Is China Really Building Two Stealth Bombers?

Stars and Stripes: Afghan pilot, inspired by fallen US soldier, fights Taliban in the skies and online

Washington Post: Boeing’s futuristic flying taxi gets off the ground in Manassas, Va.