RUSSIAN DENIALS RING HOLLOW: Despite massing some 100,000 troops on the border of Ukraine, Russia continues to insist it has no plans to further invade its neighbor. “We’re not speaking about military action,” the Kremlin’s chief spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on CNN Sunday. “No one is threatening anyone with military action. This will be just a madness to do that.”
But in his interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, Peskov did say Russia will be forced to take “counteractions” if Washington continues to rebuff Moscow’s demands for an end to NATO expansion to the east and deployment of troops and weapons in former Soviet states. “We will have to do something. What is the timeline?” he said. “We’re not speaking about tomorrow. We’re not speaking about hours, but what was meant by our president is that we don’t want to see a process for the sake of the process. So, we don’t want to see a monthlong or yearlong negotiation discussing our disagreements.”
UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT TARGETED BY CYBERATTACK AS HEIGHTENED TENSION WITH RUSSIA CONTINUES
WARNING OF ‘FALSE FLAG’ RUSE: On Friday, the White House and the Pentagon cited “credible” intelligence that Russia was planning to stage attacks against Russian-backed forces to create a phony pretext for war.
“We have information that indicates Russia has already pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false flag operation in eastern Ukraine,” said White House press secretary Jen Psaki. “The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces.”
“Russian influence actors are already starting. They’re already starting to fabricate Ukrainian provocations — in both state and social media to, again, try to justify in advance some sort of pretext for incursion,” said spokesman John Kirby at the Pentagon. “When there isn’t an actual crisis to suit their needs, they’ll make one up.”
“I cannot speak to the nature of the specific intelligence other than to assert our confidence in it,” Kirby said. “There’s a fidelity here to the information that we have, that we believe is very credible.”
WHITE HOUSE WARNS OF RUSSIAN ‘FALSE FLAG’ OPERATION IN UKRAINE
LAVROV: ‘COMPLETE DISINFORMATION’: At a news conference in Moscow yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed the U.S. claims out of hand, mentioning Psaki by name.
“They spread complete disinformation to the effect that we are allegedly preparing a provocation to attack the Russian-speaking population in Donbas with a view to receiving a pretext for this ‘invasion,’” said Lavrov, who also denied Russia had used “false flag” operations in 2014 as justification to annex Crimea.
“The current tragedy of Ukraine broke out in 2014 but not because of some provocation by Russia but due to the state coup that was supported and largely engineered by the U.S.,” Lavrov said. “It is abundantly clear that Ukraine is now under U.S. governance.”
Lavrov said Moscow is still waiting for written responses to the condition it spelled out in its proposed draft treaty. “We firmly count on concrete responses promised to us with regard to the draft documents that Russia has handed over to the U.S. and NATO members,” he said. “There is reason to believe that some contacts on this track will take place in the next few days.”
“If we see political will from Washington to try to take it into account somehow and to discuss it with us, then it’s a common ground for continuation,” said Peskov in his CNN Interview. “If we continue to get response in the way that, ‘No, it’s out of the question; we’re not going to discuss it,’ then it will be reason for being pessimistic.”
HOW RUSSIA IS PREPARING FOR WAR
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A SHOW OF SUPPORT: A bipartisan delegation of seven U.S. senators met in Kyiv with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in what was billed as a show of solidarity in the face of Russia’s threatening military moves.
The delegation included four Democrats — Chris Murphy, Richard Blumenthal, Amy Klobuchar, and Jeanne Shaheen — and three Republicans — Rob Portman, Roger Wicker, and Kevin Cramer.
“Our bipartisan congressional delegation sends a clear message to the global community: the United States stands in unwavering support of our Ukrainian partners to defend their sovereignty and in the face of persistent Russian aggression,” said Shaheen before the group left Washington.
“it is more important than ever that the U.S. support Ukraine in its efforts,” said Portman, noting that “Ukraine continues to defend its territorial integrity against an increasingly aggressive Russia, while also striving to enact critical domestic reforms to solidify its democracy.”
“Ukraine, Russia, and Europe need to see that Republicans and Democrats are to stand together to defend Ukraine in the face of a threatened Russian invasion,” said Murphy.
BIPARTISAN GROUP OF SENATORS TRAVEL TO UKRAINE AMID RUSSIA STANDOFF
ANOTHER RUSSIAN DENIAL: In his CNN interview on Sunday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also denied that Russia has any troops in the disputed Donbas region of eastern Ukraine currently under the control of Russian proxy forces.
“There are no Russian troops in Donbas. I’m a spokesperson to the Kremlin, and I officially can tell you that there are no Russian troops in Donbas and on Ukrainian soil,” Peskov said. “There are Russian troops on the Russian soil, on the Russian territory next to the Ukrainian border. It’s quite understandable.”
GENERAL TO GENERAL: The Pentagon says Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley spoke by phone to his Ukrainian counterpart Saturday, but the substance of what was discussed was not disclosed.
In his consultations with Lt. Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the two generals “continued to exchange perspectives and assessments of the evolving security environment in eastern Europe,” according to Milley’s spokesman Col. Dave Butler.
MILLEY COVID POSITIVE: Milley and his fellow member of the joint chiefs, Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger, have both tested positive for COVID-19.
“Milley is working remotely and isolating himself from contact with others after a positive COVID-19 test,” said Butler in a statement. “He is experiencing very minor symptoms and can perform all of his duties from the remote location. He has received the COVID-19 vaccines including the booster.”
The Marine Corps said in a statement that Berger also tested positive over the weekend, but his work is unaffected.
“Gen. Milley’s most recent contact with President Biden was on Wednesday, Jan. 12 at Gen. [Raymond] Odierno’s funeral,” said Butler. “He tested negative several days prior to and every day following contact with the president until [Sunday].”
NORTH KOREA’S 4TH MISSILE TEST: In its latest missile test Monday, the fourth this month, North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the sea
“The two tactical guided missiles launched in the western area of the DPRK precisely hit an islet target in the East Sea of Korea,” said the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency, according to an English translation. “The test-fire was aimed at selectively evaluating tactical guided missiles under production and deployment and verifying the accuracy of the weapon system.”
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command issued its standard statement that the short-range missile tests did not “pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory, or to our allies.”
“We are aware of the ballistic missile launches and are consulting closely with our allies and partners,” the statement said. “The U.S. commitment to the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan remains ironclad.”
The U.S. special representative for North Korea, Sung Kim, called his counterparts in Japan and South Korea to discuss the ballistic missile launches.
“Special Representative Kim expressed concern about the DPRK’s missile launches, which violated multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions and were the latest in a series of ballistic missile launches by the DPRK this month,” the State Department said in a statement. “He called on the DPRK to cease its unlawful and destabilizing activities and instead engage in dialogue.”
Denuclearization talks with North Korea have been stalled since they broke off in February of 2019.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Bipartisan group of senators travel to Ukraine amid Russia standoff
Washington Examiner: Russian military ready ‘right now’ to attack Ukraine and divide NATO
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian government targeted by cyberattack as heightened tension with Russia continues
Washington Examiner: White House warns of Russian ‘false flag’ operation in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Twitter suspends account of Iranian leader who posted animation of Trump assassination
Washington Examiner: Obtaining the unattainable: Religious exemptions for military vaccine mandate hard to come by
Washington Examiner: Texas synagogue terrorist likely didn’t require visa to enter US, avoiding vetting
Washington Examiner: Opinion: How, adding Belarus front, Russia establishes Ukraine war plan flexibility
Washington Examiner: Opinion: How Russia is preparing for war
New York Times: Russia Thins Out Its Embassy in Ukraine, a Possible Clue to Putin’s Next Move
Wall Street Journal: Putin Wants NATO To Back Off But Is Achieving ‘Exactly The Opposite,’ Says Alliance Chief
AP: Celebrated Tuskegee Airman Charles McGee dies at 102
AP: Before pullout, watchdog warned of Afghan air force collapse
Military Times: Military’s Anti-Extremism Policy Might Not Apply To About A Million Reservists
Air Force Magazine: AI, Networks, Hypersonics Are the Pentagon’s Top Research Priorities
Bloomberg: U.S. And Israel Successfully Test Anti-Ballistic Missile System
USNI News: U.S. 5th Fleet Set To Expand Unmanned Ship Operations In Middle East
Breaking Defense: U.S. 5th Fleet Commander: ‘Dramatic Uptick’ In Iran’s Drone Use
New York Times: Houthi Militia Attacks U.A.E., Hitting Tankers
CQ Roll Call: Auditors Question Improper Pentagon Payments
San Diego Union-Tribune: Replacement For Marines’ Beleaguered Amphibious Vehicle Set To Deploy For The First Time
Air Force Magazine: USAF Looks to Small Businesses for Some F-22 Upgrades
AP: China’s Xi rejects ‘Cold War mentality,’ pushes cooperation
19fortyfive.com: Next Generation Squad Weapon (NGSW): The US Army’s New Super Rifle?
19fortyfive.com: China Says It Developed a Heat-Seeking Hypersonic Missile
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Is a US-China Cold War Really Inevitable?
Forbes: Opinion: Plummeting Production Of Unmanned Undersea Systems Threatens Navy Plans For Distributed Maritime Operations
Calendar
TUESDAY | JANUARY 18
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “SOS Ukraine,” with Bernard-Henri Levy, philosopher, filmmaker and author of The Will to See: Dispatches from a World of Misery and Hope https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/sos-ukraine-a-conversation-with-bernard-henri-levy
10:30 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “The Biden administration’s foreign policy track record,” with U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
11 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion: “Biden at the One-Year Mark: Successes, Failures and Uncertainties,” with Ines Pohl, chief of the Deutsche Welle Washington Bureau; Bruce Stokes, GMFUS visiting senior fellow; and Scott Cullinane, GMFUS visiting fellow https://www.gmfus.org/event/biden-one-year-mark
3 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Schriever Spacepower Forum with Gen. John Raymond, Chief of Space Operations; and retired Gen. Kevin Chilton, explorer chair for space warfighting studies, Mitchell Institute’s Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence https://mitchellaerospacepower.org
4 p.m. — U.S. Chamber of Commerce virtual discussion with U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield https://events.uschamber.com/instep011822/begin
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 19
8 a.m. — Potomac Officers Club virtual Defense Research and Development Summit with Defense Undersecretary for Research and Engineering, Acquisition and Sustainment Heidi Shyu; and Defense Innovation Unit Director Michael Brown https://potomacofficersclub.com/events
10 a.m. — House Committee on Oversight and Reform hearing: “Price Gouging in Military Contracts: New Inspector General Report Exposes Excess Profit Obtained by TransDigm Group,” with Theresa Hull, deputy DOD inspector general; John Tenaglia, Acting principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for acquisition and principal director, defense pricing and contracting; Kevin Stein, CEO, TransDigm Group Inc.; and Nicholas Howley, founder and executive chairman, TransDigm Group Inc. https://oversight.house.gov
11 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual conversation: “The future of the Department of the Air Force,” with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; and Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-fireside-chat
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing: “Jurisdiction, Investigation, and Prosecution of Sexual Assault and Harassment in the National Guard,” withj testimony from Gen. Daniel Hokanson, chief, National Guard Bureau; and Brig. Gen. Charles Walker, director, Office of Complex Investigations https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Two Years of the Space Force,” with Chief of Space Operations Gen. John Raymond https://www.csis.org/events/discussing-two-years-space-force-general-raymond
THURSDAY | JANUARY 20
11 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual discussion: “DISA Restructuring to Move at the Velocity of Action,” with Air Force Lt. Gen. Robert Skinner, DISA director and commander of the Joint Force Headquarters-Department of Defense Information Network; Roger Greenwell, DISA risk management executive/authorizing official; Jason Martin, director of the DISA Digital Capabilities and Security Center; Llewellyn “Don” Means, director of the DISA Center for Operations; Sharon Woods, director of the DISA Hosting and Compute Center; and Army Maj. Gen. Garrett Yee, assistant to the DISA director https://dcevents.afceachapters.org/AFCEADCDISALuncheon
2 p.m. — Space Force Association “Space Warfighter Talks,” with Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander, Space Operations Command. https://ussfa.org/events/4632324/
3 p.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual book discussion on The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict, with author Elbridge Colby, co-founder of the Marathon Initiative; Dan Blumenthal, director of Asian studies at AEI; Oriana Skylar Mastro, nonresident senior fellow at AEI; and Colin Dueck, nonresident senior fellow at AEI. https://www.aei.org/events/taking-on-the-china-challenge
FRIDAY | JANUARY 21
10 a.m. — Middle East Policy Council virtual Capitol Hill Conference: “Rise of China in the Middle East,” with former Rep. Jim Moran, D-Va., senior policy adviser at Nelson Mullins; Asha Castleberry-Hernandez, senior adviser at the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs; Jon Alterman, senior vice president and director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Middle East Program; former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Chas Freeman, MEPC board member and former assistant Defense secretary for international security affairs; former U.S. Ambassador to Oman Richard Schmierer, MEPC chairman of the board and president; and Bassima Alghussein, MEPC executive director https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 26
10 a.m. — Senate Armed Services committee closed hearing on “U.S. Policy on Afghanistan,” with secret testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin CLOSED, no webcast https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“At first, they were just words, but with the time being, we have seen the gradual invasion of NATO into Ukrainian territory with its infrastructure, with its instructors, with supplies of defensive and offensive weapons, teaching the Ukrainian military, and so on and so forth. And that brought us to the red line … we couldn’t tolerate it anymore … Let’s find a way out. Let’s produce some guarantees for us. Let’s think about returning NATO’s military infrastructure back to the borders of 1997.”
Chief Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, in an interview with CNN on Sunday.
