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NINE POINTS TO PONDER: President Trump yesterday touted the Pentagon’s much-anticipated and long-delayed Missile Defense Review as a pathway to building an impenetrable shield that will soon protect all Americans from the threat of enemy missiles. Here are nine key takeaways: 1. TRUMP’S RHETORIC SOARS BEYOND THE STRATEGY: While the report itself is somewhat down-to-earth about threats and the timeline to develop new technologies to defend against, President Trump described the future of missile defense as a marvel of modern warfare. “Our goal is simple: to ensure that we can detect and destroy any missile launched against the United States anywhere, anytime, anyplace,” Trump said. “We will terminate any missile launches from hostile powers, or even from powers that make a mistake. It won’t happen, regardless of the missile type or geographic origins of the attack.” While Trump vow to “detect and destroy every type of missile attack against any American target, whether before or after launch,” indicates that any country is subject to a pre-emptive strike, the report itself makes clear that “the United States relies on deterrence to protect against large and technically sophisticated Russian and Chinese intercontinental ballistic missile threats.” Both Russia and China have enough ICBMs to easily overwhelm U.S. missile defenses. 2. EYES, NOT LASERS IN SPACE: While the report says the U.S. will study the idea of a space-based interceptor to shoot missiles, Pentagon officials were clear that there’s not even a concept for that yet. “It’s different than anything we have now or have on the books. But we’re going to take another look at it,” Michael Griffin, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering told reporters during a Pentagon briefing yesterday. What the strategy does envision is a constellation of space-based sensor Griffin said. “We think the best approach is a network of satellites in low orbit. How many, what orbit, all to be determined. We are getting started on that this year.” Griffin said. The sensors are needed in particular to provide “birth-to-death tracking” of new hypersonic weapons which don’t travel on a fixed trajectory,” said Lt. Gen. Sam Greaves, director of the Missile Defense Agency. “We need to know where it originated, where it’s going, what maneuvers it’s making so that we can position our intercept capability to interdict the target and defeat it.” “Our new space-based sensor layer will give us persistent, timely global awareness,” said acting Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan. “These capabilities will remove adversaries’ ability to coerce us or our allies and partners.” 3. A LOT OF STUFF HASN’T BEEN INVENTED YET: While Trump talked about new capabilities as if they were just around the corner, the missile review has no specific plans for funding or fielding any advanced technologies. It will be well after the next presidential election before any experiments will be able to demonstrate what’s actually feasible. “We’re not talking about going straight from the Missile Defense Review report to an objective system,” said John Rood, undersecretary of defense for policy. “So, you’ll start to see some of those experiments materialize over the next very few years.” “You’ll see experiments in 2021, 2022, on-orbit experiments with I’ll say highly developed metal systems … not objective systems, Rood said. “I think you’ll see operational systems in the mid- and latter part of the 2020s.” 4. STRATEGY ASSUMES NORTH KOREA WILL REMAIN A THREAT: While President Trump says the missile threat from North Korea has receded and may be eliminated through a potential agreement during his first term, the MDR isn’t banking on it. In fact, it hinges on staying ahead of Kim Jong Un’s ability to manufacture new missiles. “The sizing constructs for the size of our missile defense force will be sufficient to outpace the scale of the North Korean threat because we don’t want to be in a situation where North Korea can credibly hold at risk American cities,” Rood said. “We are not interested in keeping pace with the emerging threats; we want to outpace them,” Shanahan said. 5. GOOD DEFENSES MAKE GOOD NEIGHBORS: The strategy is intended to provide time and space and time for diplomacy in the event of a crisis, to give a potential adversary pause, and the president time for a decision. “Missile defenses play a very stabilizing role. They give you alternatives allow time to avoid a crisis if you need to,” Rood said at yesterday’s briefing. “For example, we’ve gone through a number of real-world examples where potential adversaries have clearly been looking to cause a crisis, have brought ballistic missiles to operational status, like in North Korea. We have responded by bringing our missile defense system, historically, to a state of alert. It’s allowed time for things like diplomacy, it’s allowed time for you to explore other options.” 6. CRITICS REMAIN CRITICAL: The release of the report unleashed a torrent of criticism from the arms control groups and other long-standing critics of missile defense who continue to argue that the systems are expensive, ineffective and destabilizing. “The Missile Defense Review is a wholesale expansion of U.S. missile defense capabilities that will do more to upset nuclear stability than make Americans safer,” writes Eric Gomez a policy analyst at the Cato Institute. “The review’s call for space-based missile defense sensors, ‘left of launch’ capabilities, and improvements to existing midcourse defense systems represent a significant increase to the current missile defense architecture.” 7. PRICE TAG, FACE DOWN: No matter how many times reporters at the Pentagon asked yesterday. officials would not show any leg on how many more billions the ambitious missile defense plans will cost. “Wait for it when the budget comes out next month,” Rood said. “But obviously, the budget that will be rolled out is consistent with the Missile Defense Review and will carry it forward.” But what’s clear is the program will be expensive and take years. “The time horizon for those activities will exceed that of our budget submission, which is a one-year submission with a five-year projection that will go to the Congress,” Rood said. “Are you getting the theme here, that we’re not going to talk about the budget today?” Griffin added. “Because the president hasn’t released the budget yet.” 8. TRUMP SAYS OTHERS WILL PAY: Don’t worry, says Trump, he’s just going to bill America’s allies for the protection provided by the new, improved U.S. missile shield. “We protect all of these wealthy countries, which I’m very honored to do, but many of them are so wealthy, they can easily pay us the cost of this protection. So, you’ll see big changes taking place,” Trump said. “So wealthy, wealthy countries that we’re protecting are all under notice … We cannot be the fools for others; we cannot be.” 9. SHANAHAN WON’T SAY NO: President Trump has made it clear he’s not a fan of people who tell him “no.” And acting Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan, whose reputation at Boeing was as a “can-do, Mr. Fix-it,” has made equally clear that when president says, “Jump,” he’ll ask, “How high?” Shanahan demonstrated that yesterday, saying, “Mr. President, we are ready for this task. This is the Department of Get Stuff Done.” Shanahan added, “From the Missile Defense Agency to the Space Force and across the Joint Force …” Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Mark (@DavidMarkDC). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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NOT HAPPENING MONDAY: Daily on Defense will not be publishing Monday, as it is a federal holiday honoring Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. We’ll be back on Tuesday. Enjoy your three-day weekend. HAPPENING TODAY — THE NORTH KOREANS ARE HERE: North Korea’s nuclear negotiator, Kim Yong-chol has arrived in Washington. He is expected to meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to discuss steps toward denuclearization that could lay the groundwork for a second meeting between Trump and Kim Jong Un. So far, the State Department has yet to confirm the meeting. MISSILE RELATED SITES GEO-LOCATED: Meanwhile a pair of researchers say they’ve figured out the location of some North Korean factories that are likely connected to Kim’s missile program. North Korea experts Jeffrey Lewis and Dave Schmerler of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, Calif., say tracked visits of Kim Jong Un to inspect factory facilities. In a report posted yesterday, they say they geolocated all of these sites. “The 12 visits involved six different locations,” the pair wrote. “Five were previously known by other names. A sixth site is a previously unidentified plant in Pyongyang that makes integrated circuits. All of these sites are believed to be linked to the missile program in one way or another.” SHUTDOWN DAY 28: One day after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi suggested Trump may have to postpone his State of Union address because of the partial government shutdown, President Trump grounded the Air Force plane Pelosi and other members of Congress were counting on to fly them to Afghanistan over the three-day holiday weekend. Trump, like Pelosi, D-Calif., cited the shutdown as the reason. but it was hard not the see the move as a tit-for-tat response to Pelosi’s power play in essentially disinviting Trump from the annual tradition. There is a key difference between the two moves. Pelosi’s dis-invitation of sorts cited Department of Homeland Security personnel having to work the annual speech without getting paid — including Secret Service. The congressional delegation trip was to be run by the Department of Defense, which is fully funded for the fiscal year and whose employees are getting paid as usual. Anyway, Trump’s letter yesterday dripped with sarcasm and referred to Pelosi’s trip to visit troops and consult with U.S. and NATO commanders as an “excursion” and a “public relations event.” “I am sure you would agree that postponing this public relations event is totally appropriate. I also feel that, during this period, it would be better if you were in Washington negotiating with me and joining the Strong Border Security movement to end the Shutdown,” Trump wrote. “Obviously, if you would like to make your journey by flying commercial, that would certainly be your prerogative,” he added, knowing full well it’s not safe or practical for a congressional delegation to fly commercial into Kabul. To blunt criticism that the move was petty power politics, Trump also canceled the U.S. delegation’s upcoming trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The administration scrapped the trip, “Out of consideration for the 800,000 great American workers not receiving pay and to ensure his team can assist as needed,” according to a statement White House press secretary Sarah Sanders. CHILDREN BEHAVE: “One sophomoric response does not deserve another,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham in a statement and a tweet. “Speaker Pelosi’s threat to cancel the State of the Union is very irresponsible and blatantly political. President Trump denying Speaker Pelosi military travel to visit our troops in Afghanistan, our allies in Egypt and NATO is also inappropriate,” the South Carolina Republican said, lecturing both sides. Graham added he wished “our political leadership could find the same desire to work for common goals as those who serve our nation in uniform and other capacities.” HOW DOES THIS END? On Fox News yesterday Sen. Rand Paul R-Ky., suggested a way to break the deadlock. “What I have offered is something called the Shutdown Prevention Act. And what it would do is, if we got to a cliff, we got to a date and government funding wasn’t taken care of, then government funding would continue, but with a 1 percent cut,” Paul told Fox host Neil Cavuto. “So, if you didn’t pass your appropriation bills, it would be 99 percent funding for 90 days. And 90 days later, if you still hadn’t passed your appropriation bills, it would go to 98 percent funding, 97 percent. And it would keep going down a percentage point every 90 days,” Paul said. “My guess is, they would get the appropriation bills done pretty quickly.” One obvious problem with that plan. It’s the same flawed logic that brought us sequestration, is the idea that Congress would accept a bad option when facing a worse option. That’s what brought us five years of mandatory spending caps. MANBIJ ATTACK: While Sen. Lindsey Graham suggested this week that President Trump’s decision to pull us troops out of Syria may have “set in motion enthusiasm by the enemy,” it now appears the attack that killed four Americans was a case of ISIS targeting a popular restaurant when American forces were known to stop for lunch. The New York Times reports that Americans like the food so much at the Palace of the Princes restaurant in Manbij that they dropped in frequently, often many times a week. In fact, the paper posted a photo of Sen. Graham sitting in the restaurant back in July, without any body armor or protection. “Several current and former Special Operations personnel, as well as other American officials who had worked in the region, said Thursday that the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, had exploited a vulnerability,” the Times reported. “The officials acknowledged that the dead and wounded, who included at least one Green Beret, had grown complacent and should have varied their patrol routes or increased their operational security.” U.S.-LED COALITION BOMBS SYRIAN MOSQUE: The U.S. confirmed yesterday that the counter ISIS Coalition ordered an airstrike to destroy a mosque in Safafiyah, Syria yesterday. The U.S. said the mosque was being used as a command and control facility by ISIS. “ISIS continues to violate Law of Armed Conflict and misuse protected structures like hospitals and mosques, which cause a facility to lose its protected status,” said a statement from Operation Inherent Resolve. “This strike killed ISIS terrorists who presented an imminent threat to our Syrian partner forces and eliminated another deadly ISIS operational capability from the battlefield. We will continue to support our partners as they liberate town after town from ISIS.” TRUMP DROPS BUDGET HINT: We still don’t know what budget top-line President Trump will propose to Congress next month when he formally sends his fiscal 2020 budget to Capitol Hill. Originally it was thought to be $733 billion, up from $716 billion this year. But then Trump ordered a 5-percent down to $700 billion. Which was followed by a White House meeting with leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services committees that reportedly convinced the president to ask for $750 billion. Yesterday at the Pentagon, Trump dropped a hint that he’s aiming high. As he took the stage of the Pentagon’s subterranean auditorium to polite applause of the largely military audience, Trump said. “Well, that’s really nice. Thank you. You’re only doing that because I gave you the greatest and biggest budget in our history. And I’ve now done it two times. And, I hate to tell the rest of the world, but I’m about to do it three times.” DEMOCRATS RESPOND TO MDR: Ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., said resources wasted during the partial government shutdown would be better directed toward “pressing national security priorities,” such as a new missile defense system. The comments came in response to Trump’s announcement at the Pentagon yesterday that the U.S. would move to create a missile defense program that would protect the U.S. against harmful missiles. “Listening to national security experts, and the President’s own remarks, it seems clear that an effective high-tech missile defense system is a higher national security priority than building a wall across the southern border,” Reed said in a statement yesterday. “As the Trump shutdown drags on, it wastes over $1.2 billion per week — money that could be better spent investing in real, pressing national security priorities like troops’ readiness and technological advances.” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., also laid out some requirements the missile defense program must follow, including only spending money on “reliable and rigorously tested” programs prior to their deployment and rejecting policies that could prompt a nuclear arms race. While both Democrats acknowledged the benefits of investing in missile defense efforts, they also cited the hefty costs involved with Trump’s missile shield plan. As Reed put it: “…it’s not a magic bulletproof shield and it comes with a considerable price tag.” FRANCE BUYS NANO DRONES: FLIR Systems, Inc. says it’s been awarded an $89 million contract from the French Defense Procurement Agency provide the FLIR Black Hornet 3 nano-unmanned aerial vehicle and Personal Reconnaissance System to support French Armed Forces operations. “The Black Hornet PRS is the world’s smallest combat-proven nano-Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) and is currently deployed in more than 30 countries,” the company said in a statement. “The Black Hornet enables the warfighter to maintain situational awareness, threat detection, and surveillance no matter where the mission takes them.” THE RUNDOWN Reuters: U.S. Navy Chief Does Not Rule Out Sending Aircraft Carrier Through Taiwan Strait Wall Street Journal: Islamic State Returns to Guerrilla Roots The Hill: Bipartisan Senators Reintroduce Bill To Prevent Trump From Withdrawing From NATO The Associated Press: ICE held US-born Marine veteran with PTSD for possible deportation, ACLU says CNN: Trump is fraying nerves inside the Pentagon Military.com: SecNav: Navy Is Climbing Out of ‘Readiness Hole’ Seapower Magazine: Navy FFG(X) Program Cost Estimates Trending Downward Defense News: After years fighting terrorism, the SEALs turn their eyes toward fighting big wars Defense News: Pentagon considers an ICBM-killing weapon for the F-35, but is it affordable? Army Times: Hearing set for former Green Beret accused of murdering alleged Afghan bomb-maker Military Times: Trump still poised for a drawdown in Afghanistan after the deadliest year for US troops since 2014 Military Times: Report cites concerns with VA security staff, says former secretary used his driver to chauffeur his wife |
CalendarFRIDAY | JANUARY 18 7 a.m. 1501 Lee Highway, Arlington. Future of the Air Force, with Undersecretary of the Air Force Matt Donovan. http://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org 10:30 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW. “Yes, America Can Still Lead the World: Jake Sullivan and Jeffrey Goldberg in Conversation.” carnegieendowment.org TUESDAY | JANUARY 22 9:45 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW. “Japan in 2019: A Look at the Year Ahead.” carnegieendowment.org WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 23 10:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, 8th Floor. “US Coercive Diplomacy in Iran and Iraq: A Conversation with Ken Pollack.” www.stimson.org MONDAY | JANUARY 28 9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. “A conversation with the Chief of Naval Operations.” www.brookings.edu TUESDAY | JANUARY 29 12:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Suite 400. “Revitalizing Nuclear Security in an Era of Uncertainty.” www.hudson.org THURSDAY | JANUARY 31 9 a.m. 1030 15th Street NW. “The Belarus Dilemma: For Minsk and the West.” www.atlanticcouncil.org THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 7 11:30 a.m. 1667 K Street, NW. “Regaining the High Ground at Sea: Transforming the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Air Wing for Great Power Competition” https://csbaonline.org |
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