TRUMP CONSIDERS “PRETTY SEVERE THINGS:” At his joint news conference in Warsaw with Polish President Andrzej Duda this morning, President Trump warned North Korea that he’s considering some “pretty severe things” to respond to its July 4 test of a new intercontinental ballistic missile. Trump said the North is behaving in a “very, very dangerous manner” and that something will have to be done about it.
“As far as North Korea is concerned, I don’t know. We’ll see what happens. I don’t like to talk about what I have planned, but I have some pretty severe things that we’re thinking about. That doesn’t mean we’re going to do them. I don’t draw red lines,” Trump said. “I think we’ll just take a look at what happens in the coming weeks and months with respect to North Korea. It’s a shame that they are behaving this way, but they are behaving in a very, very dangerous manner and something will have to be done about it.”
HALEY’S WARNING: Trump’s top diplomat at the U.N. warned of the growing risk of military conflict with North Korea following the regime’s intercontinental ballistic missile launch, Joel Gehrke writes. “Make no mistake, North Korea’s launch of an ICBM is a clear and sharp military escalation,” said Nikki Haley, U.S. ambassador to the U.N., at yesterday’s emergency Security Council meeting. “Their actions are quickly closing off the possibility of a diplomatic solution. The United States is prepared to use the full range of our capabilities to defend ourselves and our allies,” Haley said. “One of our capabilities lies with our considerable military forces. We will use them, if we must, but we prefer not to have to go in that direction.” Haley acknowledged the potential for conflict, but her most immediate threat was leveled at countries that have provided North Korea with economic lifelines in the face of international sanctions.
CHINA IS STILL THE KEY: Before departing Washington, Trump signaled he may not be giving up on China after all, despite tweeting earlier in the day, “So much for China working with us – but we had to give it a try!” But he also he hinted he might pressure China on trade to get Chinese President Xi Jinping to use economic power to bring Pyongyang to heel. “The United States made some of the worst Trade Deals in world history. Why should we continue these deals with countries that do not help us?,” he tweeted. Haley also isn’t ruling out China. “Much of the burden of enforcing U.N. sanctions rests with China; 90 percent of trade with North Korea is from China. We will work with China. We will work with any and every country that believes in peace.”
Former Defense Secretary William Perry, who headed the Pentagon the last time the U.S. seriously considered going to war with North Korea, says working with China is the only attractive option left, now that North Korea has nuclear weapons. In 1994, Perry’s Pentagon drew up plans for a preemptive strike, which he told NPR was a “credible threat in 1994.” Now it is “not as credible” because it would likely provoke the North to attack the South, with the prospect of hundreds of thousands of casualties and the devastation of Seoul, South Korea’s capital. “I think it’s clear that the diplomatic option, working together with China, will be very difficult to pull off. On the other hand, I think it is the only attractive option we really have,” Perry said. “The kind of sanctions we can impose — I would not say they’re pinpricks, but they do not compare in any way with the intensity of the actions that China could take. They are the primary trading partner of North Korea. They provide their food and their fuel. This missile program could not have proceeded this far without cooperation from China. So we have to have China’s cooperation,” Perry said.
MATTIS CONSULTS JAPAN: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis spoke by phone yesterday with Japanese Defense Minister Tomomi Inada, and they agreed North Korea’s ICBM launch “represents an escalation and unacceptable provocation,” according to a readout provided by the Pentagon. Mattis reiterated that the U.S. commitment to defend Japan remains “ironclad,” and the two agreed to continue to coordinate closely with each other and South Korea.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon confirmed yesterday that the North Korea Hwasong-14 two-stage ICBM is in fact a new missile that has not seen before. Although the missile basically went straight up and down, it demonstrated the capability to travel more than 3,400 miles, which is the minimum standard to qualify as an intercontinental missile. The Pentagon also criticized Pyongyang for firing the missile into busy air and sea lanes without any notice to commercial traffic to steer clear.
“Any time responsible nations conduct live-fire tests of any kind, they issue closures. They issue notice to airmen, notice to mariners, and they ensure that sea traffic and air traffic doesn’t go into that location,” said Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman. “That’s what responsible nations do.”
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
HAPPENING TODAY: As the liberation of Mosul appears to be just days away, we’ll get an update this morning at the Pentagon from Canadian Brig. Gen. D.J. Anderson, who is in Iraq. Anderson is in charge of “partner force development.” He’ll brief live from Baghdad at 11 a.m. in the Pentagon Briefing Room.
GETTING OUR SHIPS TOGETHER: Sen. David Perdue is the latest member of the Senate Armed Services Committee to sign on to the idea of making it the law of the land that the U.S. commit to a 355-ship Navy. Thirteen other senators, led by Sen. Roger Wicker, are already backing the Securing the Homeland by Increasing our Power on the Seas, or SHIPS, Act. “Today we have the smallest Army since WWII, the smallest Navy since WWI, and the smallest and oldest Air Force ever,” Perdue said. “Our current battle fleet of only 276 ships is strained to meet combatant commander requirements to respond to threats, support our allies, and deter aggression worldwide.” The guidance was included in the fiscal 2018 National Defense Authorization Act passed by the Senate Armed Services Committee last week. The estimated price tag: $26 billion annually over the next 30 years.
TURNER MISSILE DEFENSE: Rep. Mike Turner, chairman of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces, says North Korea’s recent missile test reaffirms the need to strengthen and expand America’s missile defenses. “We continue to face unpredictable and dangerous threats and I am hopeful that Congress will quickly pass a National Defense Authorization Act that provides our troops the resources they need to address these complex global threats.”
PATRIOTS TO POLAND: In that joint news conference this morning with Trump, Poland’s President Duda said his country is interested in buying Patriot missile systems made by Raytheon to augment its defenses. Trump again praised Poland as one of only a handful of NATO nations meeting its commitment to spend at least 2 percent of its GDP on its own defense. “Poland has been right there,” Trump said.
AFGHANISTAN KIA: The Pentagon has identified the latest casualty in Afghanistan as Pfc. Hansen B. Kirkpatrick, 19, of Wasilla, Alaska. Kirkpatrick was on an off-base mission with Afghan security forces in Helmand province when he was killed by an indirect attack, likely by the Taliban. Two other U.S. troops were wounded, but their wounds are not considered life-threatening. Indirect fire simply means the aimer can’t see the target, for example in a mortar attack.
In an earlier incident, three U.S. soldiers were killed in an apparent insider attack in Nangarhar province. But in this case, “There’s no indication that this was friendly fire,” said Pentagon spokesman Davis.
NEW SOMALIA STRIKE: Meanwhile in Somalia, the U.S. launched an airstrike against al-Shabaab fighters on the Fourth of July, the Pentagon said. It was the second since Sunday as the Trump administration steps up operations there, and targeted a group of the al Qaeda-linked fighters several hundred miles southwest of the capital Mogadishu. About 50 U.S. personnel operate in the country at any given time.
ERDOGAN PLAYS THE MIDDLE: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared to put his relations with the United States and Russia on equal status in a new interview, Joel Gehrke writes. Erdogan declined to say if he trusts Trump more than Russian President Vladimir Putin, an unusual demurral given Turkey’s membership in NATO. Erdogan has clashed with western leaders in recent years as he implemented increasingly authoritarian changes to the Turkish political system and grew frustrated with U.S. plans to defeat the Islamic State in neighboring Syria.
“Don’t make us make such a choice,” Erdogan said during an interview with German weekly Die Zeit, when asked which leader he trusts more at the moment. “You have no right to do so. We are Turkey. We develop our relations to America as best we can, and we do the same with Russia.”
TRUMP, PUTIN NEED A “TURNAROUND:” A top Russian diplomat wants the impending meeting between Trump and Putin to provide a “turnaround” from U.S. efforts to impose economic sanctions on the Russians. “There are always opportunities for positive turnarounds,” Sergei Kislyak, the Russian ambassador to the United States, told a Kremlin-run media outlet. “What is needed is the resolve not to miss such opportunities. Let’s see what the U.S. will do for the meeting.”
But Kislyak expressed doubt that Trump will show such “resolve,” based on recent interactions between the administration and Russia as well as ongoing efforts in Congress to pass more punitive sanctions.
POSSIBLE COOPERATION IN SYRIA: Russia and the United States have a chance “to appropriately coordinate in Syria” so that refugees can return home, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said yesterday.
Tillerson proposed that Russia and the United States “explore the possibility” of establishing no-fly zones and other “joint mechanisms” to maintain peace in Syria as the Islamic State loses ground. Such cooperation would expand on the military-to-military contacts that have been used to avoid a direct conflict between Russian and American forces operating in the country — but it could be imperiled nonetheless by the fact that Russia and Iran, which have supported Syrian President Bashar Assad, have significant ambitions in a post-ISIS Syria.
“With the liberation of Raqqa now underway, ISIS has been badly wounded, and it could be on the brink of complete defeat in Syria if all parties focus on this objective,” Tillerson said in a Wednesday evening statement. “In order to complete the mission, the international community, and especially Russia, must remove obstacles to the defeat of ISIS and help provide stability that prevents ISIS from rising anew from the ashes of their failed and fraudulent caliphate.”
NOBODY KNOWS: At his Warsaw news conference, the president again refused to endorse the assessment of the U.S. intelligence community that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, arguing it could have been Russia, or it could have been other people or countries. “Nobody really knows for sure,” Trump said. And he disputed reports that there was a consensus among 17 U.S. intelligence agencies about the the find, saying it was really only three or four, and then cited the flawed intelligence about weapons of mass destruction in the lead up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq as a reason to question the finding.
TREAT PUTIN LIKE CNN: In that news conference, Trump again attacked the “fake news” media in general and CNN and NBC in particular. “CNN has been fake news for a long time,” the president said, adding that NBC is “equally as bad.” Last week when Trump tweeted a GIF of himself tackling a person with the CNN logo pasted over his face, CNN and others have called it an incitement to violence. “I will say that CNN has really taken it too seriously and I think they’ve hurt themselves very badly,” Trump said in Poland. “What we want to see is honest, beautiful, free – but honest – fair press.”
Speaking on CNN yesterday, Rep. Adam Smith, ranking member on House Armed Services Committee, said he wished Trump “treated Vladimir Putin more like he treats CNN.” “I wish he was more willing to stand up to a world leader who is threatening democracy and undermining countries all across the globe.”
THE RUNDOWN
Politico: U.S. missile shield not yet ready for North Korean nukes
Wall Street Journal: U.S., Russia spar over approach to North Korea threat
USA Today: How Trump can put pressure on China over North Korea’s nuclear threat
NPR: Pentagon Freezes Immigrant Recruitment Program
UPI: CH-53K King Stallion flight testing moves to Naval Air Station Patuxent River
Daily Beast: U.S. commandos running out of ISIS targets
Foreign Policy: Mapped: The countries with the world’s most dangerous missiles
Reuters: Take Two for Trump in talks with unnerved European allies
New York Times: China sees opening left by Trump in Europe, and quietly steps in
Defense One: The Israeli military is buying copter drones with machine guns
Stars and Stripes: Soldier charged in Humvees’ free-fall
War on the Rocks: Struggling with cyber: A critical look at waging war online
Washington Post: Trump administration sets one of the slowest paces for staffing and nominations in recent history
Fox News: Alaska, Hawaii pols demand better missile defense
New York Times: Qatar’s Gulf Neighbors Vow To Press Blockade After Their Deadline Passes
Defense Tech: Marines send 3D printers to combat zone to fix gear faster
USNI News: Textron’s Aerosonde small unmanned aerial vehicle eligible for Navy sea-based ISR
Military.com: Glock says it’s the best pick for MHS; Calls on Army for more tests
Calendar
THURSDAY | JULY 6
11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Canadian Armed Forces Brig. Gen. D.J. Anderson, Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, director of partner force development and the ministerial liaison team, briefs the media live from Baghdad. Live streamed at www.defense.gov/live.
FRIDAY | JULY 7
9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The fight against corruption in Colombia with the country’s Inspector General Fernando Carrillo Flórez and Comptroller General Edgardo Maya Villazón. wilsoncenter.org
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Global leaders forum with The Rt Hon Sir Michael Fallon MP, Secretary of State for Defense of the United Kingdom. csis.org
MONDAY | JULY 10
9:30 a.m. Senate Visitor Center 203/02. A panel discussion on the future of air superiority with Air Force Brig. Gen. Alex Grynkewich, Col. Tom Coglitore and Jeff Saling of Air Superiority 2030. mitchellaerospacepower.org
10 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Security and economic development: Silk Road and the Caspian. heritage.org
TUESDAY | JULY 11
8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Procurement division meeting. ndia.org
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Russia’s Zapad 17 exercise and its implications for NATO and the United States. atlanticcouncil.org
10 a.m. Dirksen 342. Nominations of David J. Glawe to be undersecretary for intelligence and analysis at the Department of Homeland Security, and David P. Pekoske to be assistant secretary of the Transportation Security Administration. hsgac.senate.gov
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. A blueprint for maximizing the impact of U.S. foreign aid. brookings.edu
11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The U.S.-Tunisia strategic partnership and its importance to regional stability with Sen. John McCain and Youssef Chahed, Tunisia chief of government. heritage.org
WEDNESDAY | JULY 12
9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Post-conflict peacebuilding: Key issues, challenges, lessons learned and best practices. wilsoncenter.org
9:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The war on ISIS and the forgotten need for congressional authorization with Sens. Tim Kaine and Jeff Flake. wilsoncenter.org
THURSDAY | JULY 13
7 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd. Integrated air and missile defense symposium. ndia.org
8 a.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Annual technology summit with Lt. Gen. Paul Nakasone, commanding general of U.S. Army Cyber Command. defenseone.com
8:45 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Cross-Strait relations re-examined: Toward a new normal? csis.org
12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Regime change in Iran: From the 1953 coup to the Trump policy review. atlanticcouncil.org
