THE COMING AMMUNITION GAP: A new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies is sounding the alarm about the length of time it will take to rebuild America’s munitions supply, substantially depleted by constant arms shipments to Ukraine.
Because of the limited capacity of the defense industrial base, which has been largely scaled to a peacetime production rate, the estimated time to replace the thousands (and in the case of artillery shells over a million) of key weapons systems and munitions ranges from a low of 2.5 years for HIMARS to 18 years for Stinger shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, with the average being five years or more. See the full chart here:
“Most inventories, though not all, will take many years to replace. For most items, there are workarounds, but there may be a crisis brewing over artillery ammunition,” wrote report author Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program.
With the front-line battles in Ukraine becoming largely an artillery duel, Ukraine’s burn rate of artillery shells could leave the United States scrambling to supply its own Army and Ukraine’s given production rates, concluded Cancian.
“It is not clear how many of the million rounds they have used in the six months of operations, but, assuming Ukraine has one month of artillery ammunition left on hand, that comes out to 143,000 rounds fired a month, or about 4,800 rounds per day,” he wrote. “This could become a crisis. … Ukraine will never run out of 155 mm ammunition — there will always be some flowing in — but artillery units might have to ration shells and fire at only the highest priority targets.”
FRUSTRATION BOILING OVER: At this week’s Surface Navy Association National Symposium, it was clear that the shortfall in munitions production extends beyond the problems caused by the war in Ukraine, with one Navy commander warning the U.S. may have to “rob Peter to pay Paul” in a matter of months.
“I’m very frustrated,” said Adm. Daryl Caudle, Navy Fleet Forces commander, who said his patience is wearing thin with defense contractors blaming the war in Ukraine and supply chain problems for the inability to fill the demand for precision munitions.
“All this stuff about COVID this, parts, supply chain this, I just don’t really care,” Caudle said, according to a report in the Navy Times. “I need [Standard Missile-6s] delivered on time. I need more [torpedoes] delivered on time.”
“I am not forgiving the fact you’re not delivering the ordnance we need, OK? I’m just not,” Caudle said, according to an account in the New York Post. “Because it’s so essential to winning. And in my position and for the people in the room in uniform, that’s all that matters. And I can’t do that without the ordnance. … That’s how we actually win.”
At the same event, Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro warned, “If the conflict does go on for another six months to another year, it certainly continues to stress the supply chain in ways that are challenging.”
PENTAGON INSISTS ‘NO PROBLEM’: At yesterday’s Pentagon briefing, spokesman Brig Gen. Pat Ryder deflected questions about the looming shortages of ammunition, insisting the Defense Department was carefully managing the problem.
“There’s going to be a variety of factors that are taken into account to ensure that we can continue to support Ukraine while at the same time ensuring that we maintain our own readiness and our own stocks,” Ryder told reporters when questioned about Del Toro’s remarks. “We will not go below our readiness requirements as we take into consideration what Ukraine’s security assistance needs are.”
The inability of U.S. defense contractors to keep up with the sudden surge in demand has forced the Pentagon to seek munitions elsewhere, including South Korea, Ryder admitted earlier this week. “South Korea maintains a very robust, very capable defense industry. And so [we’re] in discussions with the South Korean government in terms of purchasing ammunition to replenish U.S. stocks.”
“I would say it’s one of our great strategic strengths as a coalition is the fact that we do have such a large defense in number of defense industrial bases to draw upon, as well as a motivated defense industrial base that wants to help us in that regard,” Ryder said yesterday. “So, we are confident that will continue to be able to support Ukraine for as long as it takes. And we’re confident that we’ll be able to continue to maintain the readiness levels that are vital to defending our nation.”
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Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden meets with Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House at 11:15 a.m. amid increasing concern about the threats posed by China’s stated goal of forcing the unification of Taiwan with the mainland and North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal.
The threat from North Korea, which is expected to conduct a seventh nuclear test sometime this year, prompted South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to speculate publically this week that at some point the South may need to arm itself with nuclear weapons instead of relying solely on America’s nuclear umbrella.
Yoon made the remark Wednesday, saying if North Korea’s provocations intensify, “The Republic of Korea could deploy tactical nuclear weapons or possess its own nukes,” according to Yonhap News Agency.
At the White House, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby downplayed the idea that South Korea was seriously considering a nuclear arsenal of its own. “The Republic of Korea has made clear that they are not seeking nuclear weapons. But what we are going to seek, jointly together with them, are improvements in extended deterrence capabilities,” Kirby said. “The United States remains committed, President Biden remains committed, to the complete denuclearization of the peninsula. And that hasn’t changed.”
SOUTH KOREA FEARS RUSSIA WILL INSPIRE ‘ROGUE NATIONS’ IN REGION
ALSO TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi will sign an agreement on cooperation in space at 4:30 p.m. at NASA’s headquarters in Washington.
On Wednesday, Blinken hailed the U.S.-Japan Space Cooperation Framework as underscoring the commitment of the U.S. and Japan to safe and responsible outer space activities. “This agreement has been a decade in the making. It covers everything from joint research to working together to land the first woman and person of color on the moon.”
The ceremony, which will be attended by NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, Japanese Ambassador to the U.S. Koji Tomita, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency President Hiroshi Yamakawa, and U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, will be livestreamed at https://www.state.gov
SIX-WEEK WINDOW: Count retired Gen. Wes Clark, the former NATO supreme commander, among the critics who think the Biden administration is doing too little, too late to ensure Ukraine can defeat Russia on the battlefield.
“It doesn’t look good. Fifty Bradleys, a few Marder vehicles, discussions about some 1970 vintage Leopard tanks, not so good. That stuff needs to be in there now in bulk, and it isn’t. So, I’m concerned,” Clark said in an appearance last night on CNN, where he is a paid contributor. “I mean, this is a major military operation. If you put 50 tanks in, that’s what we would say in the United States is one tank battalion. It’s not a large force. And it may not even be 50 tanks.”
Clark fears the installation of Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the top general in Russia, as overall commander is a sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin will throw everything he’s got into the war in order to salvage a win and save his own skin.
“I think it says that for Putin, this is war,” said Clark “This is a war against NATO. So, he’s not taking this any longer as a special military operation. He knows it’s a threat to his control of the regime. He views it as a mortal threat to Russia.”
“We need to be really looking at this closely right now. We’ve got maybe six weeks to get this right or we’re going to have an entirely different situation on our hands with NATO,” he said. “We’re forming special committee in Congress to look at China, but this is the war that’s going on right now. And if Gerasimov comes in, pulls things together, maybe uses nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons to get a breakthrough in Luhansk, believe me, all eyes are going to be back on Ukraine. And at that point, it’s too late to do the big surge of equipment in there to help the Ukrainians.”
REPORT DETAILS HORRIFIC HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES BY RUSSIAN FORCES IN UKRAINE
UFOs, UAPs, WHATEVER: You can now download the congressionally mandated report on UFOs from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence website, but don’t expect to learn anything new from it.
The 12-page document dutifully reported that more people are seeing things but offered no answers as to what they’re seeing, except to say that roughly half of the sightings are likely drones, balloons, or other “unremarkable” aerial clutter. As for the rest of the 510 reports, no explanation is offered, including for why there has been a sudden surge of reports since March of 2021, 339 to be exact.
Most of those come from U.S. military pilots flying near bases, which the report suggested may be a result of “collection bias” due to the number of sensors aboard military aircraft along with heightened awareness of pilots who have been told to be on the lookout for anomalies.
Possible explanations include weather, illumination, atmospheric effects, or sensor irregularities or variances, such as operator or equipment error. But nobody knows, except that there remains no evidence or mention of the possibility that the sightings are strange visitors from another planet.
But it’s not like the investigators haven’t been busy. They did come up with an improved acronym for the inquiry of what’s now called UAPs, for Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, or as the Pentagon calls them Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena. The former Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force, with the unpronounceable acronym UAPTF, has been renamed the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office, or AARO, pronounced “arrow.”
So we’ve got that going for us.
NEW GOVERNMENT REPORT DETAILS 171 INVESTIGATED UFO SIGHTINGS STILL UNRESOLVED
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Whither robust, Reagan-style defense budgets?
Washington Examiner: What can the GOP House actually do?
Washington Examiner: Biden reboots border immigration strategy
Washington Examiner: New government report details 171 investigated UFO sightings still unresolved
Washington Examiner: Report details horrific human rights abuses by Russian forces in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Russia releases US Navy veteran Taylor Dudley
Washington Examiner: South Korea fears Russia will inspire ‘rogue nations’ in region
Washington Examiner: Swalwell shares threatening voicemail he says was prompted by McCarthy ‘spreading lies’
Washington Examiner: North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper bans TikTok on state devices
Washington Examiner: ‘ISIS Beatle’ Alexanda Kotey no longer listed in prison system
Washington Examiner: Spain repatriates 15 people with ISIS ties from Syrian camp
Washington Post: Analysts: Elevating A Confidant, Putin Plans To Push For Victory
New York Times: Risks Aside, West Races To Arm Kyiv With Tanks
New York Times: In a First, South Korea Declares Nuclear Weapons a Policy Option
Air & Space Forces Magazine: US and Japan Agree to Protect Each Other in Space, Citing Chinese Threat
Breaking Defense: Though ‘Born Digital,’ Space Force Needs 7 Years to Fully Mature, Deputy CTIO Says
Defense One: NASA, Northrop Drawing Up the Future of Drone Cargo Jet
Defense News: How Biden’s Microchip Ban Is Curbing China’s AI Weapons Efforts
Reuters: Analysis: Why The U.S. Needs Japan’s Help On China Chips Restrictions
Seapower Magazine: SECNAV Wants To Put Naval Strike Missiles On All Littoral Combat Ships
Task & Purpose: Here Comes The Navy’s Laser Fleet. Pew pew pew!
Task & Purpose: War Game Shows Just How Brutal China’s Battle For Taiwan Would Be
Defense Scoop: 5th Fleet Commander Reveals ‘Takeaways’ From Recent Exercise With AI-Enabled Drones
19fortyfive.com: Putin’s Next Big Idea: Have Belarus Invade Ukraine?
19fortyfive.com: Only Putin Knows: Is the Russian Military Running Out of Ammo In Ukraine?
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s T-90M Proryv: Will Putin Send His New Tank to Fight in Ukraine?
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Rules for Vaccine Refusers After DOD Lifts Its COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Reveals New Jolly Green IIs Made First Combat Saves
19fortyfive.com: SSN(X): The U.S. Navy’s Plan to Build the Ultimate Stealth Submarine?
19fortyfive.com: AbramsX: The U.S. Army’s New Tank Looks Like a Game Changer
AP: Late Pentagon Chief Ash Carter Honored as ‘Force of Nature’
Calendar
FRIDAY | JANUARY 13
11:15 a.m. — President Joe Biden hosts Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for meetings at the White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room
12 p.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service discussion: on “Displacement and Disabilities in Ukraine What’s Happened to Children with Disabilities in the Conflict?” with Eric Rosenthal, founder and executive director of Disability Rights International; Elizabeth Ferris, director of ISIM; and Quill Kukla, director of Georgetown’s Disability Studies Program https://www.georgetown.edu/event/displacement-and-disabilities
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 18
6:30 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series” in-person event with Gen. James McConville, Army chief of staff. Register here: https://info.ausa.org
3 p.m. — Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law virtual event: “Secret War: Unauthorized Combat and Legal Loopholes,” with Katherine Yon Ebright, counsel, Brennan Center Liberty and National Security Program; Oona Hathaway, professor of law, Yale Law School; Wesley Morgan, journalist and author, The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan’s Pech Valley; and moderator Elias Yousif, research analyst, conventional defense, Stimson Center https://www.eventbrite.com/e/secret-war-unauthorized-combat-and-legal-loopholes
MONDAY | JANUARY 23
1 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute in-person event: “A Conversation with Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): China, Russia, and America’s Military Readiness,” with Hal Brands, senior fellow, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation-with-sen-john-cornyn
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“This appointment underscores for the public the department’s commitment to both independence and accountability in particularly sensitive matters and to making decisions indisputably guided only by the facts and the law.”
Attorney General Merrick Garland announcing Thursday the appointment of a special counsel to investigate the retention of classified documents by President Joe Biden
