Russian winter offensive in Ukraine fails to meet its goals

“There is a realistic possibility that Gerasimov,” Russia’s chief of the general staff, “is pushing the limits of how far Russia’s political leadership will tolerate failure,” the assessment concluded.

“Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed on April 1 that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast administrative borders by March 31,” said the Institute for the Study of War in its Saturday campaign assessment, which cited “growing Russian speculation” that the Kremlin “may soon reshuffle its senior military command due to the failed winter offensive.”

“Russian milbloggers fretted that Russian forces must finish their offensive operations in Bakhmut and Avdiivka to prepare for the Ukrainian counteroffensives they expect between Orthodox Easter on April 16 and Soviet Victory Day on May 9,” the ISW said. “Milbloggers highlighted their disappointment that there have not been any decisive battles throughout the winter and observed that Russia will not be capable of continuing a large-scale offensive operation if it is unable to secure Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the coming weeks.”

‘IMPALED ON THIS UKRAINIAN BAYONET’: In congressional testimony last week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Gen. Mark Milley, Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, both said Russian forces are reeling from the high casualties suffered in the effort to wrest control of Bakhmut in the face of a stubborn Ukrainian defense.

“The Russians have well over 200,000 casualties. Their offensive aspirations have come sensibly to a halt,” said Milley in Senate testimony last Tuesday. “Their ground forces have been absolutely impaled on this Ukrainian bayonet.”

“The Ukrainians have inflicted significant casualties on the Russians, and they have depleted their inventory of armored vehicles in a way that no one would have ever imagined,” said Austin, noting that Russia has been forced to pull post-World War II-era T-54 and T-55 tanks out of mothballs. “It demonstrates that their capability is waning.”

In an interview Friday with Defense One, Milley continued to downplay the chances for all-out victory this year. “[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky has publicly stated many times that the Ukrainian objective is to kick every Russian out of Russian-occupied Ukraine,” said Milley. “That is a significant military task. Very, very difficult military task. You’re looking at a couple hundred thousand Russians who are still in Russian-occupied Ukraine. I’m not saying it can’t be done. I’m just saying it’s a very difficult task.”

MILLEY SAYS UKRAINE UNLIKELY TO RETAKE ALL OF ITS TERRITORY THIS YEAR

RUSSIA’S DRUNKEN ARMY: Another British assessment cites Russian media reports suggesting the Russian military is hoping to recruit an additional 400,000 troops to replace the more than 200,000 who have been killed, wounded, or have deserted in Ukraine.

“Russia is presenting the campaign as a drive for volunteer, professional personnel, rather than a new, mandatory mobilization,” the U.K. assessment says. “There is a realistic possibility that in practice, this distinction will be blurred, and that regional authorities will try to meet their allocated recruitment targets by coercing men to join up.”

“Rebuilding Russia’s combat power in Ukraine will require more than just personnel,” it continued. “Russia needs more munitions and military equipment supplies than it currently has available.”

Meanwhile, the British Defense Ministry is also citing reports that a large number of Russia’s war deaths appear to be the result of non-combat causes.

“On 27 March 2023, a Russian Telegram news channel reported there have been ‘extremely high’ numbers of incidents, crimes, and deaths linked to alcohol consumption amongst the deployed Russian forces,” the U.K. said. “Russian commanders likely identify pervasive alcohol abuse as particularly detrimental to combat effectiveness,” the Twitter update said. “Other leading causes of non-combat casualties likely include poor weapon handling drills, road traffic accidents and climatic injuries such as hypothermia.”

CONSCRIPTING 147,000 MORE SOLDIERS, PUTIN READIES FOR AN AMBITIOUS UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE

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HAPPENING TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a news conference at 7 a.m. ahead of tomorrow’s two-day meeting of foreign ministers at NATO headquarters. The meeting is the first since Finland cleared the final hurdle to become the 31st member of the trans-Atlantic alliance with a unanimous vote in the Turkish parliament last week.

In an interview with Fox News last week, Stoltenberg sidestepped a question about Turkey’s continued economic and military ties with Russia, whose state nuclear energy company Rosatom has built Turkey’s first nuclear power reactor, which is scheduled to begin operation later this month.

“What I have seen over these years is that Turkey is a committed NATO ally. The location, the strategic geographic location of Turkey, makes it an important ally, a Black Sea nation, but also bordering Iraq and Syria,” Stoltenberg told Fox’s Neil Cavuto. “Of course, when we have 30 allies on both sides of the Atlantic, there are sometimes differences. But when it comes to the core responsibility of NATO to protect each other, both against the aggressive actions of President Putin and Russia, but also against terrorist organizations in Syria and Iraq, Turkey plays an important role.”

ZELENSKY TO POLAND: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to travel to Warsaw on Wednesday for meetings with one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters, Polish President Andrzej Duda.

Also in Poland yesterday was House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner (R-OH), who told CNN, ‘The successes on the battlefield in Ukraine are real. The support that we’re providing them is instrumental.”

Asked about Milley’s comments suggesting Ukraine is not likely to secure a victory this year and former President Donald Trump’s statement to Sean Hannity that ultimately Putin’s “going to take over all of Ukraine,” Turner said, “There’s a number of people I think that should just stop the speculation.”

“We had the ranking member, former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, saying they won’t win back Crimea. I think statements like that are very irresponsible. I think everyone should just continue the path that we’re on. We know that they’re making tremendous headway and certainly encourage Ukraine.”

BLINKEN-LAVROV CALL: In a Sunday call with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for the “immediate release” of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who was arrested last week and accused of spying.

“Blinken conveyed the United States’ grave concern over Russia’s unacceptable detention of a U.S. citizen journalist,” said spokesman Vedant Patel in a statement. “Secretary Blinken further urged the Kremlin to immediately release wrongfully detained U.S. citizen Paul Whelan.

According to Russia’s Foreign Ministry, Lavrov told Blinken that U.S. officials and Western media should refrain from “hype” over the arrest of Gershkovich and said, “a court will determine his future fate.”

BIDEN SAYS US WON’T EXPEL RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS OVER ARRESTED JOURNALIST

RATCHETING UP THE ECONOMIC PRESSURE: Gershkovich’s arrest came just days after he collaborated on a story about Russia’s unraveling economy. The Wall Street Journal has lifted the paywall for that story and others Gershkovich has written during his time in Moscow.

And this morning, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies is out with a new report, “Ruble Rumble: Offensive and Defensive Measures to Defeat Russia in the Economic Domain,” which outlines ways the West can “maximize the leverage of an economic and financial pressure campaign to undermine Moscow’s war efforts and economy for the long term.”

“As the fighting in Ukraine drags on, the economic and financial measures intended to weaken Russia’s ability to wage war will become an even more important part of the Western response,” the report suggests. “Western weapons and Ukrainian courage have allowed Kyiv to defend itself and retake large swathes of territory. But prevailing in the economic domain will require a sustained, concerted, and strategic effort from the West.”

“To maximize the leverage of an economic and financial pressure campaign, more aggressive offensive and defensive measures are necessary,” the report said. “With sufficient political will and a strengthened coalition, the United States can wear down the Russian war machine and hamstring its ability to harness malign finance to destabilize democratic governments and evade sanctions and export controls.”

FORGET RUSSIA’S SPY FICTION, HERE’S WHY US REPORTER EVAN GERSHKOVICH WAS LIKELY ARRESTED

IS TAIWAN ON THEIR DANCE CARD? House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) is readying a bipartisan congressional delegation to the Indo-Pacific region to meet with government officials and U.S. military personnel.

The announcement of the visit made no mention of specific countries, but in a statement, McCaul said the purpose of the trip is to “strengthen relationships with our allies and partners in the region.”

“We are confronting a generational threat from the Chinese Communist Party, and the Indo-Pacific theater is our first line of defense against their encroachment,” he said. “I look forward to our engagements and learning what more the United States can do to ensure the balance of power in the region and beyond is not further disrupted.”

Traveling with McCaul are Reps. Young Kim (R-CA), Ami Bera (D-CA), French Hill (R-AR), Madeleine Dean (D-PA), Guy Reschenthaler (R-PA), Mike Waltz (R-FL), Michael Lawler (R-NY), and Nathaniel Moran (R-TX).

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Milley says Ukraine unlikely to retake all of its territory this year

Washington Examiner: Ukraine honors anniversary of Bucha liberation, recognizes atrocities

Washington Examiner: Russia to outline ‘contours of a new world order’ as UN Security Council chair

Washington Examiner: Russia does not ‘deserve’ UN Security Council seat, US ambassador says

Washington Examiner: Biden says US won’t expel Russian diplomats over arrested journalist

Washington Examiner: Bipartisan lawmakers criticize DOD over failure to comply with information requests

Washington Examiner: McConnell could be key to Biden strategy of splitting GOP on debt ceiling

Washington Examiner: House Republicans prepare major border bill after months of infighting

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Forget Russia’s spy fiction, here’s why US reporter Evan Gershkovich was likely arrested

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Conscripting 147,000 more soldiers, Putin readies for an ambitious Ukrainian counteroffensive

Washington Examiner: Opinion: China reminds Europe that obedience is the cost of profit

AP: Ukrainian official offers plan for a Crimea without Russia

New York Times: Russian Military Blogger Who Backed Invasion Is Killed In St. Petersburg

Reuters: Russia To Form Special Division Of Poseidon Torpedo Carriers — TASS

AP: South Korea, US, Japan hold anti-North Korea submarine drill

The Economist: Guam, Where America’s Next War May Begin

Defense One: ‘Lower The Rhetoric’ On China, Says Milley

Defense One: Milley: Don’t Send Uninvited U.S. Troops To Mexico

Wall Street Journal: Russia-China Ties Worry Japan

Fox News: U.S. Navy Warship Successfully Intercepts Medium-Range Ballistic Missile In Test

Marine Corps Times: Top Marine Acknowledges Mechanical Issues With New Amphibious Vehicles

USNI News: Navy Estimates 5 More Years For Virginia Attack Sub Production To Hit 2 Boats A Year

Air & Space Forces Magazine: GAO Tells Congress: Pentagon Still Needs a Portfolio Plan for Tactical Aviation

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Plans New Campaign, Social Media Partnerships to Combat Recruiting Shortfall

Air & Space Forces Magazine: US Should Consider Expanding Nuclear Arsenal to Cope with China and Russia, Study Says

19fortyfive.com: Opinion: The U.S. Military’s Great Relearning

Calendar

MONDAY | APRIL 3

7 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — News Conference by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of a two-day meeting of foreign ministers at NATO headquarters that begins Tuesday, April 4 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “US Policy and Taliban Rule in Afghanistan,” with former Afghan Ambassador to the U.S. Adela Raz, visiting fellow at Hudson; and former Pakistani Ambassador to the U.S. Husain Haqqani, director of Hudson’s South and Central Asia program https://www.hudson.org/events/us-policy-taliban-rule-afghanistan

2:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “The China Challenge in the Middle East,” with Michael Doran, director of Hudson’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East; and Mohammed Khalid Alyahya, nonresident senior fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/china-challenge-middle-east

3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies launch of the Wadhwani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Technologies,” with Romesh Wadhwani, founder and chairman of SymphonyAI https://www.csis.org/events/launch-event-wadhwani-center

3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Game-changers or little-changed? Implications of ground combat in Ukraine,” with Brig. Gen. Mark Clingan, deputy commanding general of Marine Corps Combat Development Command https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/game-changers-or-little-change

5 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The Free World’s Response to a Sino-Taiwanese War,” with Lt. Cmdr. Chris Glass, lead analyst for the Office of Naval Intelligence Maritime Analysis Center’s Fleet Operations Integration Division https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-free-worlds-response-to-a-sino-taiwanese-war

TUESDAY | APRIL 4

7 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — Two-day meeting of NATO foreign ministers at NATO headquarters, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_212528.htm

9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies “Smart Women, Smart Power” virtual discussion: “Beyond America’s Coastline,” with Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Linda Fagan https://www.csis.org/events/beyond-americas-coastline

12:45 p.m. Brussels, Belgium — News conference by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg after day one of a two-day meeting of NATO foreign ministers at NATO headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_212528.htm

1:30 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Peninsula Plus: Enhancing U.S.-South Korea Cooperation on China, Multilateralism, and Military and Security Technologies,” with Lami Kim, director of Asian studies at the U.S. Army War College; Alex Ward, national security reporter at Politico; and Andrew Yeo, chair of the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-peninsula-plus

4 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Cato Institute discussion: “Cut the Budget, Change the Strategy,” focusing on the defense budget, with former Acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller; and Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at Cato https://www.cato.org/events/cut-budget-change-strategy

WEDNESDAY | APRIL 5

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies: “Global Security Forum focused on Transatlantic Defense,” with Adm. Christopher Grady, Joint Chiefs of Staff vice chairman; William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; Marek Magierowski, Polish ambassador to the U.S.; and German Air Force Gen. Chris Badia, deputy supreme allied commander transformation, NATO https://www.csis.org/events/2023-global-security-forum-transatlantic-defense

9 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies in-person “Spacepower Security Forum,” with Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman; Lt. Gen. DeAnna Burt, deputy chief of space operations for operations, cyber, and nuclear; Derek Tournear, director, Space Development Agency; and Lisa Costa, chief technology and innovation officer, U.S. Space Force https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event

10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Managing China-Related Proliferation Challenges,” with Youngjun Kim, professor of international politics at Korea National Defense University; Yeseul Woo, Ph.D. candidate at King’s College London; and Maximilian Hoell, senior policy fellow at the European Leadership Network https://www.hudson.org/events/managing-china-related-proliferation-challenges

10:30 a.m. 789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion: “A National Strategy for Countering North Korea,” with Joseph DeTrani, senior adviser at the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea; Robert Joseph, senior scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy; and Greg Scarlatoiu, executive director of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea https://www.aei.org/events/a-national-strategy-for-countering-north-korea

THURSDAY | APRIL 6

9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Ways Ukraine can join the European Union within a reasonable timeline and with clear conditions for accession,” with Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stefanishyna https://www.csis.org/events/conversation-olga-stefanishyna

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” event with Lt. Gen. Richard Moore, deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, U.S. Air Force; and Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant, deputy chief of space operations, strategy, plans, programs, and requirements, U.S. Space Force https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/april-6

2 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion: “Reconstructing Ukraine’s Infrastructure,” with R. Richard Geddes, nonresident senior fellow, AEI; Natalie Jaresko, managing director of EY-Parthenon; Matthew Murray, adjunct professor at Columbia University; former U.S. trade representative Robert Zoellick, senior counselor at the Brunswick Group; and former Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), distinguished visiting fellow in the practice of public policy, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/reconstructing-ukraines-infrastructure

FRIDAY | APRIL 7

9 a.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs annual conference: “China’s Economic Development and U.S.-China Economic Relations” https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/annual_conference_on_china