THE NUMBERS GAME: At the moment there is no clear answer to the question of how many additional U.S. troops will be going to Afghanistan as a result of President Trump’s retooled strategy to eventually win the war that will soon enter its 17th year. Administration officials have privately said the number is roughly 4,000, but the president has announced no number, and probably never will.
Trump has delegated the authority to set U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan to Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who told reporters traveling with him that he has not yet settled on a number, and won’t until he gets a plan from Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford that outlines how the new strategy will be implemented, and the specific tasks to be performed by the U.S. military.
Asked about a widely-reported number of 3,900, Mattis told reporters during a stopover in Iraq that he’d rather not say a number, only to have to change it later. “Let me look at the plan that the military brings me,” Mattis said. “Once I see that, look at the number we have on the ground, reorganize those on the ground to align with the new strategy, and then bring in whatever gap-fillers I need.”
THE 3,900 NUMBER: So where does the very specific 3,900 troop number come from? On Fox News Channel yesterday, Vice President Mike Pence confirmed that was the original request by the military before the strategy debate had been settled. “The Pentagon, in June, made a recommendation for an additional 3,900 troops to support exactly the kind of tactical deployment that I just described, deploying personnel at the brigade level to be able to coordinate Afghan National Army efforts and to be able to effectively deploy American assets.”
HIDDEN SOLDIERS: But since then Mattis has discovered, due to bookkeeping sleight-of-hand employed by the Obama administration to keep publicly announced force levels under artificial caps, he doesn’t actually know precisely how many American troops are in Afghanistan and exactly what they are doing. “There’s a very strange accounting procedure I inherited,” Mattis told reporters on his flight to the region. Mattis says his first task is to put all the troops into one bucket, and count heads. “What I’m probably going to end up doing is outputting everyone into one thing and saying, ‘Here’s how many are really there now,’ because it’s more, I found out, than what I’ve read in the newspaper.”
WHAT’S THE REAL NUMBER? If Mattis picks up this morning’s Wall Street Journal he may get a better idea. The paper reports the U.S. already has 3,500 more troops than it publicly acknowledges, if you count “temporary” deployments where forces slip in and out as required, but are not counted in the official total of 8.400. That puts the real number closer to 12,000, and should 4,000 more troops be sent, the total would be up to 16,000.
SO WHEN DO WE FIND OUT? While President Barack Obama made a big show of announcing the deployment of additional forces to the war zone, Trump is not a fan of previews of coming attractions. “I’ve said it many times how counterproductive it is for the United States to announce in advance the dates we intend to begin or end military options,” Trump said Monday night. “We will not talk about numbers of troops or our plans for further military activities.”
And yesterday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said future deployments will be acknowledged only after the fact. “The intent is there will be visibility to troop levels once the decision has been made. I think what the president has conveyed and I agree wholeheartedly with him is that we’re not going to signal ahead what our plans are. We’re not going to signal ahead an increase, a decrease, the timing of any of that,” Tillerson said. “The only way we can defeat an enemy that is as nimble and as cagey tactically as this enemy is, we have to be as cagey and tactical as they are, and we’ve not been fighting that way.”
PRESSURING PAKISTAN: There was so much focus on the troop numbers that a far more important aspect of the new Trump strategy got short shrift, namely turning the screws on Pakistan. At the State Department yesterday, Tillerson revealed that he talked by phone to Pakistani Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi to warn him Pakistan would be singled out for sharp criticism by the president.
Tillerson said Pakistan faces a stark choice. “If I were the Pakistan government, I would have growing concerns about the strength of the Taliban and other organizations inside of Pakistan who seem to be growing their numbers and their presence to the point that at some point they become a real threat to the stability of the Pakistani government itself,” Tillerson said, noting that instability in Pakistan in not in the U.S. interest. “They are a nuclear power. We have concerns about their weapons, the security of their weapons,” Tillerson said.
“Obviously, we have some leverage that’s been discussed in terms of the amount of aid and military assistance we give them,” Tillerson said. But perhaps the biggest stick that Trump waved on Monday was his embrace of India, Pakistan’s biggest regional worry. “Another critical part of the South Asia strategy for America is to further develop its strategic partnership with India, the world’s largest democracy and a key security and economic partner of the United States,” Trump said in a statement that had to send chills throughout Islamabad.
Tillerson also refused to rule out U.S. airstrikes in Pakistan. “We are going to attack terrorists wherever they live,” he said. “And we have put people on notice that if you are harboring or providing safe haven to terrorists, be warned, be forewarned.”
MICK’S TAKE: We haven’t heard a lot from Gen. John “Mick” Nicholson, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan who Trump once ruminated about firing. But Washington Post columnist David Ignatius reached him by phone yesterday. Nicholson tells Ignatius there were two main reasons that the nation-building of the Obama era failed. “Nicholson now cites two illusions of that period that he says undermined the war effort,” Ignatius writes. “The first was that U.S. commanders didn’t realize just how crucial external support from Pakistan was in allowing an unpopular Taliban insurgency to survive. The second was that commanders didn’t understand how corruption was rotting the Afghan security structure the United States was trying to build. Both problems are addressed, at least modestly, by Trump’s strategy,” Ignatius concludes.
MORE AIR POWER? Trump, didn’t say, but implied strongly that by giving more authority to commanders in the field, he was willing to unleash the full fury of U.S. airpower against the Taliban, as the U.S. led-coalition has done to great effect in Iraq and Syria. In a joint interview with Reuters, the two top leaders of the Air Force said it too soon to say that will happen.
Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein says he is still examining the matter, and when asked directly if the Air Force would dedicate more assets to Afghanistan, Goldfein said, “Possibly.”
“It’s actually too early to tell what this will mean in terms of plus-ups and reductions,” Goldfein said. The general and Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson spoke to Reuters while flying back to the United States after a nine-day trip that included a visit to Afghanistan. “Obviously, the Joint Chiefs will work through their plans and make proposals, but I think the guidance was pretty clear from the president last night, and we’re going to go on the offensive and destroy these terrorist networks,” Wilson said.
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
7TH FLEET COMMANDER SACKED: While you slept, on the other side of the world the U.S. Navy was firing the three-star commander of the 7th Fleet, following four ship-handling mishaps at sea in the Western Pacific this year. Vice Adm. Joseph Aucoin was relieved “due to a loss of confidence in his ability to command,” said a statement issued in the name of Adm. Scott Swift, commander of U.S. Pacific Fleet. Aucoin was due to retire in a few weeks. His successor, Rear Adm. Phillip Sawyer, has already been nominated and confirmed for the position and promotion to vice admiral, will assume command immediately. The news was first reported by the Wall Street Journal. This past weekend the destroyer USS John S. McCain collided with an oil tanker near Singapore, and led to a search-and-rescue mission for 10 missing sailors. Some remains have been found, but the search continues. 7th Fleet announced this morning that the search area east of Singapore is widening.
HAPPENING TODAY: Mattis is in Turkey today, after spending yesterday in Iraq meeting with government officials and his top commander Gen. Steve Townsend. While touting the progress in the battle against the Islamic State, Mattis was careful not to declare victory. “We in this coalition will remain steadfast with our Iraqi allies all the way through the defeat of ISIS,” Mattis said. “It’s not over yet. There’s hard fighting ahead.”
Today, British Maj. Gen. Rupert Jones, deputy commander of Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, will provide an update on military operations live from Baghdad at 11 a.m. EDT in the Pentagon Briefing Room. Live streamed on www.defense.gov/live.
ALSO HAPPENING TODAY: Trump will be in Reno, Nevada, this morning to give a speech to the national convention of the American Legion. He will also sign the Veterans Appeals Improvement and Modernization Act before boarding Air Force One for the trip back to Washington.
TRUMP THREATENS GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN: In a campaign-style rally in Arizona last night, Trump threatened to shut down the federal government if he doesn’t get funding for his border wall with Mexico. As the raucous crowd chanted “Build that wall. Build that wall,” Trump said, “Believe me, if we have to close down our government, we’re building that wall.” He blamed “obstructionist Democrats” for blocking his pet project, saying they are jeopardizing national security. “Let me be very clear to Democrats in Congress who oppose a border wall and stand in the way of border security: You are putting all of America’s safety at risk.”
KIM RESPECTS US NOW: Trump last night also took credit for lowering tensions on the Korean Peninsula by calling Kim Jong Un’s bluff, with his tactic of matching North Korea’s bellicose rhetoric with even more bellicose threats of his own. “Kim Jong Un, I respect the fact that I believe he is starting to respect us. I respect that fact very much. Respect that fact,” Trump said. “I can tell you, what I said, that’s not strong enough. Some people said it’s too strong, it’s not strong enough,” Trump said, referring to his “fire and fury,” and “locked and loaded,” statements, threatening a military response to North Korea’s missile threats. “Probably not, but maybe something positive can come about. They [the news media ] won’t tell you that, but maybe something positive can come about.”
At the State Department, Tillerson expressed a similar sentiment about North Korea’s recent restraint. “I’m pleased to see that the regime in Pyongyang has certainly demonstrated some level of restraint, that we’ve not seen in the past,” Tillerson said. “We hope that this is the beginning of this signal that we’ve been looking for, that they are ready to restrain their level of tensions, they’re ready to restrain their provocative acts, and that perhaps we are seeing our pathway to some time in the near future to having some dialogue.”
LIFELINES TO NORTH KOREA: The Treasury Department imposed sanctions on several Chinese and Russian companies on Tuesday due to their cooperation with the North Korean regime. The sanctions are designed to slow the development of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program. But they also represent an escalation of that effort, by targeting the companies that China and Russia have allowed to provide economic lifelines to a regime badly in need of funds.
“It is unacceptable for individuals and companies in China, Russia and elsewhere to enable North Korea to generate income used to develop weapons of mass destruction and destabilize the region,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Tuesday. “We are taking actions consistent with UN sanctions to show that there are consequences for defying sanctions and providing support to North Korea, and to deter this activity in the future.”
‘PRETTY DAMN SCARY’: James Clapper, the former director of national intelligence, said he is seriously worried about the commander in chief’s access to the nuclear codes after watching Trump’s performance at his Arizona rally last night. Clapper, who served in the Obama administration as DNI and is now a CNN contributor, said he also questions Trump’s ability and fitness to be president. Asked by CNN’s Don Lemon if that means Trump is a threat to national security, Clapper replied, “Well, he certainly could be. … Again, having some understanding of the levers that a president can exercise, I worry about, frankly, you know, the access to nuclear codes,” Clapper answered. “There’s actually very little to stop him. … The whole system’s built to ensure rapid response if necessary. So there’s very little in the way of controls over you know, exercising a nuclear option, which is pretty damn scary.”
AFGHANISTAN STRATEGY IS ‘NO PLAN’: The top Democrat on House Armed Services, Rep. Adam Smith, has weighed in the Afghanistan strategy recommended by Trump’s generals, calling it “no plan” at all. “Many of the principles he laid out were vague, and he made almost zero effort to explain how he will achieve these objectives,” Smith said. Trump is “committing to an open-ended war effort in Afghanistan without clearly explaining to the American people or the service members he is sending into harm’s way what he wants and how he intends to accomplish his goals,” he said. The president’s strategy also did not impress Smith’s Armed Services counterpart, Democrat Sen. Jack Reed, who called it vague.
GETTING THE TALIBAN TO THE TABLE: The Trump administration is not demanding that women’s rights be protected as part of any future settlement between Afghanistan and the Taliban, according to Tillerson. Asked if he would be dropping a demand that women’s rights be guaranteed as part of any final settlement in the country, Tillerson indicated it would not be a demand put forward by the United States. “The government of Afghanistan and the Taliban representatives need to sit down and sort this out,” Tillerson said in reply. “It’s not for the U.S. to tell them it must be this particular model, it must be under these conditions, and I think that’s what the president means when he says we’re no longer nation-building.”
FASCINATING FIND: The Naval History and Heritage Command is doing a live Q&A at 11:30 a.m. about the discovery of the USS Indianapolis. Command historian Richard Hulver and Robert Neyland, head of the command’s underwater archaeology branch, both provided assistance to entrepreneur and philanthropist Paul Allen, whose team announced over the weekend it found the wreck of the World War II cruiser. Hulver and Neyland will be answering questions here about the successful search and the ship’s final resting place.
JARGON ABATEMENT INITIATIVE: Wilson, the Air Force secretary, acknowledged on Twitter yesterday that her service could do a better job explaining in plain English how it’s spending taxpayer dollars. After Defense One’s Marcus Weisgerber pointed out in a tweet that the Pentagon’s announcement of a contract award for the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent program “used confusing language that ordinary Americans don’t understand,” Wilson tweeted back, “You are right.”
“We are starting to replace the Minuteman III missiles. We chose 2 companies to help design and try new pieces for it.”
The Washington Examiner chimed in, asking her to explain the Third Offset Strategy, an initiative begun under the last administration to pursue innovative technologies to stay ahead of America’s competitors, a plan loaded with a heaping helping of acquisition jargon. “Funny,” Wilson responded, “I asked the same thing recently!”
THE RUNDOWN
New York Times: Naval collision adds to fears about U.S. decline in Asia
San Diego Union-Tribune: After Navy’s 2nd Deadly Collision, Call For A Congressional Probe
AFP: US Defence Chief In Turkey For Talks On Syria, Kurds
Washington Post: Military leaders consolidate power in Trump administration
USA Today: Here’s how Trump’s position on Afghanistan has shifted over time
Defense & Aerospace Report: AU’s Bensahel: Trump’s New Afghanistan Plan ‘Remarkably Consistent With’ Obama, Bush Strategies
Wall Street Journal: Trump’s shift boosts Afghans, risks pushing Pakistan toward China
USNI News: Regional territorial dispute could cloud USS John S. McCain search and rescue effort
UPI: Future USS Portland completes trials ahead of spring 2018 commissioning
Reuters: Trump’s Afghan decision may increase U.S. air power, training
DefenseTech: Another MQ-1 Predator drone crashes in the Middle East
Fox News: North Korea’s latest propaganda puts Trump in cemetery
Foreign Policy: Back to the future in Afghanistan
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | AUG. 23
11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Maj. Gen. Rupert Jones, U.K., deputy commander, Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve briefs the media live from Baghdad. Live streamed on www.defense.gov/live
12:30 p.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Reddit “ask me anything” on artificial intelligence and global security. cnas.org
THURSDAY | AUG. 24
1:30 p.m. 1300 Wilson Blvd. PSA Captains of Industry roundtable lunch with Rear Adm. David Hahn, chief of naval research and director of innovation, technology requirements, and test and evaluation. ndia.org
WEDNESDAY | AUG. 30
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Iran’s nuclear, regional and proxy challenges. heritage.org
