NO PLAN FOR TRANSGENDER TROOPS: When President Trump unleashed a mini-tweetstorm yesterday morning announcing that transgender troops would no longer be allowed to serve in the U.S. military in any capacity, he caught virtually everyone flat footed. The major policy shift came as a surprise, and left the Pentagon scrambling to answer basic questions about what it means. No one could say what the next step was. While officials who did not want to be named said they believed the White House “consulted” at the “highest levels” of the Defense Department, no one could say definitively whether Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who was on vacation in the Pacific Northwest, was consulted, or simply informed of the decision.
Trump said he was relying on his generals and military experts, but no one could say who specifically that was. The spokesman for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs was not returning calls, or seeing reporters as he worked behind a closed office door. No member of the Joint Chiefs came forward to make any statement. The Pentagon was awash in confusion all day. Officials said they were awaiting guidance from the commander in chief. A statement issued mid-morning said, “We will continue to work closely with the White House to address the new guidance provided by the Commander-in-Chief on transgender individuals serving the military,” and told reporter to call the White House.
WHITE HOUSE HAD NO ANSWERS: At the White House, spokeswoman Sarah Sanders insisted the president based his decision to reverse course on transgender service on the advice of the military that the policy was hurting combat readiness and unit cohesion. “The president’s expressed concern since this Obama policy came into effect, but he’s also voiced that this is a very expensive and disruptive policy,” Sanders said. (The Washington Post’s Philip Bump points out that this argument is similar to the ones used to keep black people, women and gays from serving.) It largely will be up to the Pentagon, Sanders said, to figure out how to carry out the president’s orders. “Implementation policy is going to be something that the White House and the Department of Defense have to work together to lawfully determine,” Sanders said. “And I would imagine the Department of Defense will be the lead on that and keep you posted as that takes place.”
BY THE NUMBERS: The Pentagon yesterday would give no firm estimate of how many transgender troops are in the ranks, but said the number was in the hundreds, not thousands. A Rand study last year estimated the number at 1,320 to 6,630 out of a total active duty force of about 1.3 million service members. It estimated the cost of hormone treatments and gender transition-related surgeries at between $2.4 million and $8.4 million, representing an approximate 0.13-percent increase in medical expenses.
But critics of the policy cited much higher numbers. “This policy is going to cost $1.35 billion over the next 10 years alone just for the sex reassignment surgeries of the transgender members of our service,” Rep. Vicky Hartzler told CNN yesterday. “And that equals 13 F-35 airplanes that we could buy with that or 14 F-18s.” Hartzler, who led an effort in Congress to bar defense dollars to be used for treating gender dysphoria, called the Rand study flawed, and said a study by conservative Family Research Council puts the annual costs for surgeries alone as high as $3.7 billion. “The question is, though, should we be spending any tax dollars to do gender reassignment surgeries when we don’t have soldiers who don’t have body armor or bullets?” Hartzler said. “We need to be investing every dollar that we have to meet the threats we’re facing as a nation.”
Politico has a sourced story naming Hartzler as the driving force behind Trump’s surprising “snap” decision, and suggesting she did an end-run around Mattis, who was stiff-arming her to get more time to study the policy. Politico says Hartzler’s winning argument with the White House was that GOP infighting over funding gender surgery was threatening funds for the president’s border wall.
NOT SO FAST, SAYS McCAIN: Any policy change is inappropriate until the DOD finishes its study on recruiting transgender troops in January and the study is reviewed by Congress, Sen. John McCain said. “There is no reason to force service members who are able to fight, train and deploy to leave the military — regardless of their gender identity,” he said. The Armed Services chairman also criticized the way Trump delivered the big news, in 140-character snippets, as usual. “The president’s tweet this morning regarding transgender Americans in the military is yet another example of why major policy announcements should not be made via Twitter,” McCain said. “The statement was unclear.”
DEMS DIG IN: Meanwhile, the Democrats on the House Armed Services Committee said they were preparing for a political rumble over Trump’s transgender ban. “We will fight this decision, just like we fought ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,’ and ultimately justice will prevail,” the committee’s minority members said in a Twitter statement. Rep. Adam Smith, the top Armed Services Democrat, questioned the president’s claim of “tremendous medical costs” being a reason for the decision. “The inflated cost estimates that President Trump appears to be alluding to have no basis in fact, and appear to be cooked up by right-wing advocacy organizations whose real interest is not to support military readiness but to further discrimination,” Smith said.
SEE YOU IN COURT: Trump’s tweets immediately sparked threats of legal action. The advocacy group OutServe-SLDN said Wednesday it is prepared to sue the Trump administration if the president follows through. “If the president pushes this, we will take him to court,” said Matt Thorn, the executive director of OutServe-SLDN, which provides legal services to lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender members of the military. Thorn said he does not believe Trump has the authority to institute a ban and that it would have to come from Mattis. “I think this is an overreach,” he said.
The American Civil Liberties Union said yesterday it also stands ready to challenge the policy, as soon as it’s clear what it is. In a statement on its website, the ACLU is already soliciting clients for a lawsuit. “There is no basis for turning trans people away from our military and the ACLU is examining all of our options on how to fight this,” said Joshua Block, a senior ACLU attorney “For any trans service member affected by today’s announcement: Please get in touch with us, because we want to hear from you.”
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
HAPPENING TODAY: Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley speaks at a National Press Club luncheon 12:30 p.m., and will no doubt be asked about the transgender ban. Milley was a vocal supporter of allowing transgender troops to serve openly, and when Defense Secretary Ash Carter announced he was lifting the ban on transgender service last summer, he quoted Milley.
“The United States Army is open to all Americans who meet the standard, regardless of who they are. Embedded within our Constitution is that very principle, that all Americans are free and equal,” Milley said. “And we as an Army are sworn to protect and defend that very principle. And we are sworn to even die for that principle. So if we in uniform are willing to die for that principle, then we in uniform should be willing to live by that principle.”
Carter’s policy said simply, “Otherwise qualified servicemembers can no longer be involuntarily separated, discharged, or denied reenlistment or continuation of service just for being transgender.” Yesterday, the former Obama administration secretary issued a statement saying what matters in choosing those who serve is that they are best qualified. “To choose service members on other grounds than military qualifications is social policy and has no place in our military,” Carter said.
Q2 EARNINGS: Three major defense contractors announced their second quarter earnings yesterday.
BOEING: Revenue dropped in the second quarter, coming in at $22.7 billion, down from $24.7 billion the second quarter of last year. “In the second quarter, we added to our large and diverse order backlog with key wins in commercial airplanes, defense, space and services, while achieving important milestones such as delivering the first 737 MAX airplane, flying the second production-ready T-X trainer aircraft, and conducting a successful Ground-based Midcourse Defense intercept test,” said Chairman, President and CEO Dennis Muilenburg.
Revenue for the Defense, Space & Security division came in at $6.9 billion, down from $7.1 billion a year ago. “Boeing Military Aircraft (BMA) second-quarter revenue was $2.9 billion, reflecting lower planned C-17 deliveries, and operating margin increased to 13.2 percent on improved performance. During the quarter, BMA was awarded a contract for the remanufacture of 38 AH-64E Apache helicopters for the United Kingdom, and the second production-ready T-X aircraft completed first flight,” a company release said.
NORTHROP GRUMMAN: Sales increased from $6 billion last year to $6.4 billion, and earnings inched up from $517 million to $552 million. “Aerospace Systems second quarter 2017 sales increased 14 percent primarily due to higher volume for Manned Aircraft programs, including restricted work and the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye,” a company statement said. “Autonomous Systems and Space sales also increased. Autonomous Systems sales reflect higher volume for several programs, including Triton, partially offset by lower NATO Alliance Ground Surveillance volume.”
GENERAL DYNAMICS: Revenue dipped slightly from $7.7 billion last year to $7.6 billion this year, while net earnings jumped from $714 million to $749 million. Significant orders included munitions to the Middle East, U.S. Air Force and U.S. Army; gun systems for the F-35; Stryker vehicle support; and conversions of M1A2 tanks for Saudi Arabia. “General Dynamics’ strong second quarter performance reflects our focus on operations and executing on our programs,” said Phebe Novakovic, chairman and chief executive officer. “We are confident in our outlook for the future, built on a solid defense backlog and continued good order activity across the portfolio of Gulfstream business jets.”
Next up is Raytheon, which announces earnings today.
CLOSING THE BOOK ON BASE CLOSINGS: If there were any lingering doubts that the House majority is opposed to BRAC, they were likely dispelled last night when the chamber again voted to block any Pentagon attempts to close excess military bases across the country. Lawmakers added the amendment prohibiting shuttering facilities under the Base Realignment and Closure program to an annual veterans and military construction spending bill by voice vote. A similar ban was passed as part of the National Defense Authorization Act this month.
One of the sponsors, Rep. John Ratcliffe, said it would help protect Red River Army Depot in his district in northeast Texas. Many in the House are loath to close bases that are economic drivers for their districts, despite Pentagon urging and claims it could save $2 billion annually. “We are essentially leaving that money on the table when we could be providing it for our national defense,” Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz said, summing up minority Democrat attitudes.
SANCTIONS WILL HAPPEN: The Senate plans to pass House legislation sanctioning Russia over the 2016 election meddling, ensuring it will reach Trump’s desk this summer, Susan Ferrechio writes. Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Corker announced he has signed off on a House-passed bill that sanctions Russia and Iran as well as North Korea. Corker had been holding up Senate endorsement of the House bill because, he said, senators wanted input on the North Korea sanctions. As part of the agreement to greenlight the bill in the Senate, Corker said the House has agreed to “expeditiously consider and pass enhancements to the North Korea language, which multiple members of the Senate hope to make in the very near future.”
NO #REXIT YET: A smiling Secretary of State Rex Tillerson shot down rumors he might leave the State Department following reports of tension with the White House over staffing decisions. “I’m not going anywhere,” Tillerson told reporters during a brief exchange yesterday. Tillerson’s future became an subject of speculation following reports that he’s grown increasingly frustrated with Trump. “[I’ll be here] as long as the president lets me,” Tillerson replied when asked how long he might remain in the administration.
MOSCOW VS. CNN: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s team is denying that Russia is arming the Taliban and is mocking a CNN report that included “exclusive video” purporting to provide evidence of Russian weapons in Taliban hands.
“We have to say this again: Russia is not supplying weapons to the Taliban,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said yesterday. “Russia only maintains contact with them so as to protect the security of Russian citizens in Afghanistan and to encourage the Taliban to join the national reconciliation process.”
POWER TO CONGRESS: President Obama’s U.N. ambassador Samantha Power has a date tomorrow with the Senate Intelligence Committee as it continues its investigation into the extent of Russia’s attempts to meddle in the 2016 U.S. elections. A source close to the matter confirmed the interview, according to a report from CNN. Power’s turn before the committee comes after a number of other Obama administration officials testified in the previous week, including former national security advisor Susan Rice and former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.
INBOX: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments has released “Analysis of the FY 2018 Defense Budget and Trends in Defense Spending,” by Katherine Blakeley. “President Trump’s FY 2018 defense budget promises a ‘historic’ defense buildup. At $603 billion in the base national defense budget, some $54 billion over the Budget Control Act caps, it grows the size of military slightly and boosts RDT&E efforts, but doesn’t move the needle on procurement. Does the FY 2018 budget request build the military the U.S. needs? Will Congress succeed in funding more for defense?” Read the report here.
THE RUNDOWN
AP: AP sources: US seeks to test Iran deal with more inspections
Reuters: Japan defense minister to quit: NHK
Yonhap New Agency: Pentagon Dismisses Speculation Over Imminent North Korea Missile Test
Washington Post: The Pentagon’s history of resisting transgender troops
USA Today: President Trump’s ban came on anniversary of Truman desegregating troops
Navy Times: Navy announces fix to Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System
Reuters: Pratt & Whitney in hot seat as Airbus profits fall
DoD Buzz: Pentagon works to avoid past mistakes with next-gen helicopter program
AP: Isolated Qatar hires firm founded by Trump aide
Reuters: Russia, EU bristle at proposed new U.S. sanctions on Moscow, warn of action
UPI: China military setting up technology research agency
Defense News: Congress’s defense budgeting headed toward ‘colossal crackup’
War on the Rocks: Russia’s new and unrealistic naval doctrine
USA Today: ISIS is rapidly losing control of Raqqa, its headquarters in Syria
Defense One: US Air Force wants robots watching Twitter
Stars and Stripes: Goodbye Incirlik? As Relationship With Nato Falters, Some Experts Question The Presence Of U.S. Troops And Nuclear Weapons
Reuters: Britain plans to send warship to South China Sea in move likely to irk Beijing
Calendar
THURSDAY | JULY 27
9:30 a.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Economic levers of U.S. policy toward North Korea. cnas.org
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Hostilities in the Himalayas? Assessing the India-China border standoff. wilsoncenter.org
10:30 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Continued oversight of the transfer of excess military equipment to civilian law enforcement agencies. Armedservices.house.gov
11:00 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Army Col. Ryan Dillon, spokesman, Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve briefs the media on operations against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
12:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. Luncheon with Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley. press.org
2 p.m. Rayburn 2154. Subcommittee hearing on combating homegrown terrorism. oversight.house.gov
2:15 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Hearing on a bill to prohibit travel-related transactions to, from, and within North Korea by persons subject to the jurisdiction of the United States. foreignaffairs.house.gov
2:30 p.m. Rayburn 2172. U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific region, a Fiscal Year 2018 budget hearing. foreignaffairs.house.gov
FRIDAY | JULY 28
12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The ramifications of Rouhani’s reelection. atlanticcouncil.org
2:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Retired military leaders from Japan and the U.S. discuss the results of the Military Statesmen Forum. csis.org
MONDAY | JULY 31
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. NATO at a crossroads and the next steps for the transatlantic alliance. brookings.edu
12 p.m. 5000 Seminary Rd. iFest 2017 with a keynote by Maj. Gen. Thomas Deale, vice director of Air Force Joint Force Development. ndia.org
TUESDAY | AUGUST 1
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The U.S. Coast Guard’s priorities for the future with the commandant, Adm. Paul Zukunft. csis.org
6:30 p.m. 14750 Conference Center Dr. Peter B. Teets Award Dinner. ndia.org
6:30 p.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr. Reception and welcome dinner for Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. afa.org
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 2
7 a.m. 4803 Stonecroft Blvd. National Security Space Policy and Architecture Symposium. ndia.org
9:30 a.m. Senate Visitors Center 212-10. Release of the study “Survivability in the Digital Age: The Imperative for Stealth” with opening remarks by Sen. Mike Rounds. mitchellaerospacepower.org
2 p.m. Senate Visitors Center 217. Closed top-secret meeting on the authorizations for the use of military force and the Trump administration perspective with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. foreign.state.gov
4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Cyber Risk Wednesday: DEF CON to DC. atlanticcouncil.org
