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WHAT HAPPENED IN HANOI? President Trump went into his second summit with Kim Jong Un well aware that his negotiators had not nailed down an agreement ahead of time on North Korea declaring and dismantling its nuclear weapons facilities. But Trump saw himself as the closer who could cajole and charm his “good friend” Kim with flattery and the promise of economic prosperity. The president was relying on his skill as a real estate magnate, using a sales pitch that might appeal to himself, the chance to turn some of the world’s underdeveloped land into a crown jewel. “I think he’s got a chance to have one of the most successful countries, rapidly, too, on Earth. Incredible country, incredible location,” said Trump wistfully, in his post-summit news conference. “If you think of it, you have on one side Russia and China and on the other you have South Korea, and you’re surrounded by water and among the most beautiful shorelines in the world.” But Kim had a shorter, more immediate goal, to begin to break the stranglehold sanctions have on his economy, and he wanted to treat the easing of sanctions as a humanitarian issue, framed as a way to help the long-suffering people that he has cruelty subjugated. SUNK BY SANCTIONS: President Trump insisted that Kim’s intransigent demand that all sanctions be lifted in return for a partial dismantling of nuclear sites at and around the Yongbyon nuclear plant is what sunk the deal. “They were willing to denuke a large portion of the areas that we wanted, but we couldn’t give up all of the sanctions for that,” Trump said. “We had to walk away from that.” But foreign minister Ri Yong-ho, in a rare news conference after Trump left Hanoi aboard Air Force One, disputed that account, insisting the North Koreans offered partial denuclearization for partial sanctions relief. “If the United States removes partial sanctions, mainly removes the articles of sanctions that hamper the civilian economy and the livelihood of our people in particular, we will permanently and completely dismantle all the nuclear material production facilities in the Yongbyon area, including plutonium and uranium, in the presence of U.S. experts,” Ri said through a translator. And Ri cast doubt on where the negotiations go from here, restating North Korea’s desire for a step-by-step approach. “It is difficult to say whether there might be better agreements than the one based on our proposal at current stage,” Ri said. “Such first stage of process is inevitable for the complete denuclearization. Our principle stands will remain in variable and our proposal will never be changed even though the United States proposes negotiation again in the future.” PROGRESS MADE: Both the president and later Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking to reporters on his plane to Manila, called the summit a success even though no agreements were reached. Pompeo was in a combative mood, according to the transcript released by the State Department. He sparred with reporters and railed against some of the press coverage, which he called “radically uninformed and now I think can be proven incorrect.” By Pompeo’s account, much was accomplished, just not enough to get across the finish line. “We worked through the night. We were very hopeful we’d make enough progress that it would justify a signing statement at the ultimate concluding, and we didn’t. The president made that decision.” THE KUDOS: Given the fear that Trump might give away too much in his zeal to get a deal, the president won widespread bipartisan praise for walking away. “President Trump is right to push for real progress on North Korea denuclearization and for being willing to walk away from a bad deal,” said Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and that sentiment was typical of dozens of statements issued by lawmakers and national security experts. “I appreciate the effort by President Trump to reach a peaceful conclusion to the North Korean nuclear threat. It’s better to walk away than sign a bad deal,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., the president’s new best friend in Congress. “I am encouraged that there are plans to continue talking. We must not go back to the status quo. If negotiations fail, it would be time to end the nuclear threat from North Korea — one way or the other.” THE CRITICISM: The most oft-repeated criticism heard in Washington in the wake of the collapse of the summit was that Trump’s top-down style — in which he believes “only he can fix it” — doomed the talks from the start and ignored decades of diplomatic norms, in which lower-level negotiators work out the nuts and bolts ahead of time, so that when the principals meet, they have something firm to announce. “Amateur hour” was the phrase that echoed through much of the criticism, as in the reaction from Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., on CNN yesterday morning. “What we saw in Hanoi was amateur hour with nuclear weapons at stake and the limits of reality TV diplomacy,” said Menendez, who is the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “Real diplomacy is the only way to effectively address the threat from North Korea. Unfortunately, what we’ve seen over the last year — and what we saw in Hanoi — was diplomatic amateur hour,” said Michael Fuchs, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. “There should be no more summits until the two sides are ready to announce an agreement that includes concrete, verifiable concessions on North Korea’s nuclear program. Let the real negotiators from both sides get to work. Until then, no more reality TV summitry.” Pompeo suggested that kind of thinking reflected ignorance of the nuance of dealing with the North Korean regime, in which only Kim is empowered to make decisions. “It is often the case that the most senior leaders have the capacity to make those important decisions,” said Pompeo. “We got some of them on this trip, but you don’t know which ones you’re actually going to get until the two leaders actually have a chance to get together.” MOSCOW MOCKS US: The chief Kremlin spokesman picked up on the idea that the U.S. rejection of baby steps was at the root of the failure to reach any agreement. “Each step towards should show certain flexibility, concessions and small agreements. It is impossible to expect that such a challenging problem as [North Korea] can be solved at once,” said Dmitry Peskov, according to TASS. “As far as we understand, the lack of this practice and unreasonably high demands certainly may lead to creating troublesome moments in the negotiating process.” EVERYBODY LOSES: “The summit ending without an agreement increases the risk of North Korea-U.S. diplomacy breaking down,” says Alison Evans, an analyst with IHS Markit, who argues the Trump administration’s “all-or-nothing” approach undermines possible progress towards concrete steps in 2019. “It will be difficult for Kim to save face domestically with no concrete outcome from the Hanoi summit.” “South Korea loses the most from the Hanoi summit ending without agreement. Multiple stalled inter-Korean projects require sanctions exemptions to progress. Importantly, Moon’s support rating has fallen steadily, with only a brief peak during the inter-Korean summit in September 2018. Without progress on North Korea, Moon’s domestic agenda becomes his only metric of success for voters, who have already criticised his administration for failing to deliver on economic metrics such as unemployment,” Evans writes. UNIVERSAL CONDEMNATION: There was no divide when it came to denouncing Trump’s comments about taking Kim’s word that he had no knowledge of what was done to Otto Warmbier, the American student who died after returning to the United States in a coma in June 2017 after more than a year of imprisonment in North Korea. Virtually no one defended the president, and many expressed puzzlement about why Trump would say what he did. “I don’t understand why the president does this. I am disappointed, to say the least,” said former Republican senator Rick Santorum on CNN. “This is reprehensible, what he just did. He gave cover, as you said, to a leader who knew very well what was going on with Otto Warmbier.” “This is the conundrum of Donald Trump for many of us who like his policies and don’t like a lot of the things he does and says,” said Santorum, who is now a paid CNN contributor. Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY: Day two of the Air Force Association Air Warfare Symposium in Orlando, Florida. Today’s highlight: Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein and Chief Master Sgt. of the Air Force Kaleth Wright hold forth at 9 a.m. You can watch live here. HEATHER WILSON — ‘STOP WASTING TIME ON STUPID STUFF’: At yesterday’s Air Warfare Symposium, Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson touted a paperwork reduction initiative that has resulted in the elimination of of 302 Air Force instructions over the last 17 months, which means less time filling out reports that nobody reads and more time actually flying planes. It’s all part of the Air Force plan to focus on regaining lost readiness. “It’s not just what we are doing to improve readiness,” Wilson told the audience. “It’s what we’re trying to stop doing, including wasting time on stupid stuff.” Wilson called many of the rescinded reporting requirements “annoying and time consuming” but said eliminating the paperwork has a larger purpose. “In a high-end conflict, you will not be able to rely upon exquisite command and control to be told what to do. You won’t be able to find out even sometimes where everybody else is on the battlefield. You’re going to have to act on mission orders and adapt and get the job done,” she said. “If we expect you to fight that way in wartime, we must treat you that way in peacetime.” FIVE-YEAR EXIT PLAN: All U.S. troops could exit Afghanistan within the next half-decade, the New York Times reported yesterday. A plan under consideration as part of Afghanistan peace negotiations would pull all of the roughly 14,000 U.S. troops from Afghanistan within three to five years, along with other international troops in the region. Portions of the plan were shared with the outlet by current and former U.S. and European officials. The plan would halve the U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan in the next few months. With European and Australian troops taking charge of training Afghan forces, remaining U.S. forces would be freed up to focus more attention on counterterrorism strikes. Although the plan has been welcomed in Washington and at NATO headquarters, American officials warned Trump could still go in another direction. Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Kone Faulkner said nothing is finalized, and the Pentagon is “considering all options of force numbers and disposition.” CLIMATE CHANGE: The Democratic chairs of four House committees have sent a letter to President Trump expressing concern about recent reports that the National Security Council plans to assemble a “secret panel” to counter the scientific consensus on climate change and question its impact on national security. “The decision to convene this NSC panel represents yet another action by your Administration in a line of many that run counter to the overwhelming scientific consensus on the causes and impacts of climate change,” wrote the lawmakers. “Given the previous statements you have made that fly in the face of explicit scientific evidence and the findings of your own DoD and Director of National Intelligence, we have serious concerns about any effort to construct a secret committee to question the basic scientific fact of climate change.” The letter also questions the reported involvement of William Happer, a former physics professor at Princeton University who has argued that carbon dioxide emissions that scientists claim are causing global warming are in fact good for the planet. “Dr. Happer does not have the qualifications to serve on a working group that should be composed of climate scientists, if it is to exist at all,” the letter states. “Dr. Happer is an atomic physicist, not an expert on climate, and his statements on climate change have been repeatedly debunked by actual climate scientists.” The letter was signed by Armed Services Committee chairman Adam Smith, D-Wash., Energy and Commerce’s Frank Pallone, D-N.J., Natural Resources’ Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., and Science, Space, and Technology’s Eddie Bernice Johnson, D-Texas. NAVY DECLARES F-35C READY FOR COMBAT: The Navy is the final service to declare what is known as “Initial Operational Capability” (IOC) for its version of Lockheed Martin’s joint strike fighter, the C variant equipped with a tailhook for landing on aircraft carriers. “The Navy joins the U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Air Force now as the third and final U.S. service to declare their F-35s mission ready and combat capable,” said a release from the Navy yesterday. “The F-35C is ready for operations, ready for combat and ready to win,” Vice Adm. DeWolfe Miller, commander of Naval Air Forces, said in a statement. “We are adding an incredible weapon system into the arsenal of our Carrier Strike Groups that significantly enhances the capability of the joint force.” Six F-35 operators are now IOC: the U.S. Marines, Air Force, and Navy, and the Israeli Air Force, the Italian Air Force, and the United Kingdom Royal Air Force. SEN INDIA CAUCUS: Senators Mark Warner, D-Va., and John Cornyn, R-Texas, co-chairs of the bipartisan Senate India Caucus, expressed concern in a statement yesterday about rising tensions between India and Pakistan, two countries armed with nuclear weapons. The senators cited both the downing by Pakistan of an Indian military plane and a terrorist attack that killed 40 Indian military police earlier this month. “We condemn the horrific attack on Indian security forces by a known terrorist group based in Pakistan. For too long Pakistan has harbored terrorist groups that have threatened stability in Asia and around the world,” their joint statement said. “At the same time, it is critical that both India and Pakistan take immediate measures to deescalate the volatile situation along their border. We urge the governments of both nuclear-armed neighbors to step back and avoid further provocative actions while keeping open lines of communication and working to reduce tensions.” Yesterday, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan promised to release the Indian air force pilot captured Wednesday, in a gesture that appeared to ease tensions. LINDSEY GRAHAM’S CONVERSION: Many have marveled at how Sen. Lindsey Graham, once one of Trump harshest critics, has undergone a complete conversion as a born-again Trump fan. In the past, Graham has called Trump a “kook” and “unfit for office.” During the campaign, when Graham himself was a candidate, he called Trump a “race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot.” In a speech yesterday at the Conservative Political Action Conference, Graham addressed the matter with his trademark self-deprecating humor. “So President Trump and I did not start off well. I remember meeting him after he got elected and he said, ‘Hey Lindsey, I don’t have your phone number.’ And I said, ‘There is a reason for that.’ So I’ve given him my phone number, and trust me, he uses it. And I couldn’t be more proud of the fact that he talks to me and asks my opinion. And we’ve got a lot in common now. I like him and he likes him.” That’s not a typo. He said, “I like him and he likes him.” THE RUNDOWN New York Times: Trump Ordered Officials to Give Jared Kushner a Security Clearance Bloomberg: Pentagon Chief Sees U.S. Forces at Ideal Levels in South Korea Los Angeles Times: Acting Pentagon Chief To Certify Emergency To Help Build Wall — And Win Trump’s Favor The Economist: The Pentagon Changes Its Focus To Russia And China Stars and Stripes: Pentagon plans scaled-back spring training exercise in South Korea as Trump-Kim negotiations falter AP: Pompeo: US to make sure China can’t blockade South China Sea Deutsche Welle: NATO steps up naval presence on the Black Sea Air Force Magazine: Air Force Didn’t Ask for New F-15s, But Needs to Bolster Fighter Buy USNI News: Navy, Experts Make Case For More Than 12 Columbia-Class Boomers The Diplomat: Russia’s Latest Diesel-Electric Attack Sub to Commence Sea Trials in 2019 Military Times: Report: If The Military Wants To Hold On To Special Operators, They Should Do This Air Force Magazine: USAF Pauses KC-46 Acceptance After FOD Found on Aircraft American Military News: Rep. Crenshaw demands fellow SEAL’s release from pre-trial confinement, implores Congress to sign letter |
CalendarFRIDAY | MARCH 1 11:45 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400. “Victory Over the Islamic State and U.S. Withdrawal From Syria.” www.hudson.org 12:15 p.m. 740 15th Street N.W. “Trump’s Taliban Negotiations: What it Means for Afghanistan.” www.newamerica.org SUNDAY | MARCH 3 10:30 a.m. 8900 Little River Turnpike, Fairfax. Breakfast discussion with rocket scientist behind Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, Dr. Ari Sacher. jnf.org/vabreakfast MONDAY | MARCH 4 12:30 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Peacebuilding in Northeast Asia: North Koreans in Russia and Implications for the United States and Japan.” www.sais-jhu.edu 3 p.m. 2301 Constitution Avenue N.W. Pakistani Ambassador to U.S. Dr. Asad Majeed Khan on Pakistan’s Priorities. www.usip.org TUESDAY | MARCH 5 8 a.m. 2201 G St N.W. Defense Writers Group Breakfast featuring Dr. Kiron Skinner, director of policy planning, U.S. State Department, Crain Center Duques Hall George Washington School of Business. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/ 6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Boulevard. Breakfast discussion with Army chief information officer Lt. Gen. Bruce T. Crawford. www.ausa.org WEDNESDAY | MARCH 6 9:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. “After the Trump-Kim summit 2.0: What’s next for US policy on North Korea?” www.brookings.edu 10 a.m. Cannon 310. “The Way Forward on Border Security.” www.homeland.house.gov 10 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Avenue, N.W. “The Hanoi Summit: Implications and Opportunities.” www.stimson.org THURSDAY | MARCH 7 2:45 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Bridging America’s Civil-Military Divide.” www.sais-jhu.edu MONDAY | MARCH 11 7 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. www.carnegieendowment.org TUESDAY | MARCH 12 7 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference (Day 2). www.carnegieendowment.org WEDNESDAY | MARCH 13 4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. “Putin’s World.” www.brookings.edu TUESDAY | MARCH 19 8 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Religious Authority in the Middle East: Implications for U.S. Policy.” www.carnegieendowment.org |
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