Russia’s military offensive, which has struggled to sustain its effectiveness through its war in Ukraine, is “likely becoming” a more serious issue, according to the U.K.’s Ministry of Defense.
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The agency described Russia’s status as “becoming increasingly acute,” in part because it’s “dealing with severe under-manning,” and as a result, as the U.K. ministry said a day earlier, it is using the Wagner Group, which is a mercenary group. Wagner has lowered its standards and has begun hiring convicts and “formerly blacklisted individuals,” who receive “very limited training,” which will likely diminish the group’s future operational effectiveness.
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“Russia continues to commit what are nominally six separate armies to its Donbas offensive. At full strength, before the invasion, these formations were established for around 150,000 personnel,” the update said. “In recent weeks, Russia has often operated with company-sized groupings of around 100 personnel when undertaking offensive operations in any one sector at a time.”
It will be forced to decide whether to deploy reserve troops to the Donbas, and its “stated immediate policy objective is to seize all of the Donetsk Oblast” or defending against Ukrainian counterattacks in Kherson.
“While Russia may still make further territorial gains, their operational tempo and rate of advance is likely to be very slow without a significant operational pause for reorganization and refit,” the U.K. update said.
Russia’s military took an operational pause earlier this month, though the Institute for the Study of War said in its Sunday update that Moscow’s forces are “continuing a measured return.” On Monday, the institute noted that Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shogiu met with Lt. Gen. Rustam Muradov, the commander of the eastern group of forces, on Monday and directed him to focus on seizing Siversk and Bakhmut and not Slovyansk.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting Iran this week.
Last week, the Biden administration divulged that Iran was planning to provide Russia with “hundreds” of unmanned aerial vehicles, though a senior defense official told reporters on Friday that they hadn’t seen any on the battlefield. National security adviser Jake Sullivan said training on the weapons could begin any day if it hasn’t already.
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A Russian delegation has traveled to Iran at least twice in the last month to examine the weapons, Sullivan told CNN.
