THE LONGEST WAR GETS LONGER: President Trump, reading slowly and carefully from a teleprompter, and speaking before hundreds of troops at Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall in Arlington, told the nation that America’s longest war won’t be ending anytime soon. That despite what he said repeatedly on the campaign trail about the Afghanistan war being a “total disaster” and wasting trillions of dollars better spent at home, he was convinced after months of studying Afghanistan “in great detail and from every conceivable angle,” to put aside his deep reservations and stick with the plan, albeit with some major modifications. “My original instinct was to pull out. And historically, I like following my instincts,” Trump said. “But all my life I’ve heard that decisions are much different when you sit behind the desk in the Oval Office.”
In the end Trump was swayed by an argument he made during the campaign, namely that President Barack Obama’s precipitous withdrawal from Iraq led to the rise of the Islamic State, a mistake Trump said he did not want to repeat in Afghanistan. “Our soldiers watched as cities they had fought for and bled to liberate, and won, were occupied by a terrorist group called ISIS,” Trump said. “The vacuum we created by leaving too soon gave safe haven for ISIS to spread, to grow, recruit and launch attacks.”
WHAT’S DIFFERENT: The biggest change is dropping any deadline for ending U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, shifting from a calendar-based strategy to a conditions-based strategy for deciding when it’s time for U.S. troops to leave. “We will not talk about numbers of troops or our plans for further military activities,” Trump said. “Conditions on the ground, not arbitrary timetables, will guide our strategy from now on.” The message is aimed at the Taliban, who will no longer be able to dig in and wait for the U.S. to leave. The idea is to give them little choice but to negotiate a political settlement.
Pakistan on notice: Trump said the U.S. will no longer tolerate safe havens across the border in Pakistan for “organizations that try every single day to kill” Americans. “We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the very terrorists that we are fighting,” Trump said. “But that will have to change. And that will change immediately.”
Unleashing US combat power: Trump did not mention airpower specifically but he pledged to further expand the authority of U.S. commanders to target “terrorists and criminal networks.” Obama instituted restrictions on offensive operations against the Taliban when he declared the combat mission officially over at the end of 2014. Trump cited lessons learned from the battle against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, where airpower has enabled a string of battlefield victories. “These killers need to know they have nowhere to hide, that no place is beyond the reach of American might and American arms. Retribution will be fast and powerful, as we lift restrictions and expand authorities in the field. We’re already seeing dramatic results in the campaign to defeat ISIS, including the liberation of Mosul in Iraq.”
Afghanistan on notice: Trump warned the government in Kabul that America’s patience is not unlimited, and that in return for continued U.S. support, the American people expect to see “real reforms, real progress, and real results.” “Our support is not a blank check,” Trump said. “The government of Afghanistan must carry their share of the military, political and economic burden.”
An end to nation-building: “We will no longer use American military might to construct democracies in faraway lands or try to rebuild other countries in our own image. Those days are now over,” Trump said. “We are a partner and a friend, but we will not dictate to the Afghan people how to live or how to govern their own complex society.” It will be up to the Afghans to figure out how to govern the fractious nation and find a path to peace. “We are not nation-building again. We are killing terrorists.”
WHAT’S THE SAME: The U.S. will continue to lead the NATO “Resolute Support” mission, which provides training, equipment and advice to the Afghan forces, while also operating a separate unilateral counter-terrorism mission, under the “Freedom’s Sentinel” banner, to go after groups that threaten the U.S. “We will ask our NATO allies and global partners to support our new strategy with additional troop and funding increases in line with our own. We are confident they will,” Trump said. “Since taking office, I have made clear that our allies and partners must contribute much more money to our collective defense. And they have done so.
The goals are unchanged: “From now on, victory will have a clear definition.” Trump said. “Attacking our enemies, obliterating ISIS, crushing al Qaeda, preventing the Taliban from taking over Afghanistan, and stopping mass terror attacks against America before they emerge.”
WHAT’S NEXT: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has been waiting for the president to sign off on his recommended strategy before exercising his new authority to set troops levels in Afghanistan. Immediately following Trump’s speech, Mattis ordered Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford to make preparations to carry out the president’s strategy, including sending more military trainers, something other NATO nations committed to in late June. “I will be in consultation with the Secretary General of NATO and our allies — several of which have also committed to increasing their troop numbers,” Mattis said. “Together, we will assist the Afghan Security forces to destroy the terrorist hub.” The U.S. has 8,400 troops in country, part of the 11,000-strong NATO force. It’s expected both NATO and the U.S. will send several thousand more, whose mission will be to train, advise and assist the Afghan military.
GENERAL SUPPORT: The generals are always expected to salute smartly and swiftly execute the orders of their commander in chief, and Gen. John “Mick” Nicholson, the top commander in Afghanistan, who Trump last month thought about firing, was quick to endorse the president’s way ahead. He called Trump’s strategy “a new approach to Afghanistan and the region,” and said that America’s Afghan partners can now be reassured the U.S. commitment is strong and enduring. “Our future presence will be based on conditions and not arbitrary timelines,” Nicholson said. “This new strategy means the Taliban cannot win militarily. Now is the time to renounce violence and reconcile.”
PARTISAN DIVIDES: The speech drew plaudits from congressional Republicans, and predictable pans from Dems. Senate Armed Services Chairman Sen. John McCain, who wrote his own strategy in frustration while waiting for Trump to make a decision, commended Trump for “taking a big step in the right direction.” In a statement McCain said, “The unfortunate truth is that this strategy is long overdue, and in the interim, the Taliban has made dangerous inroads. Nevertheless, I believe the President is now moving us well beyond the prior administration’s failed strategy of merely postponing defeat.” House Armed Services Chairman Rep. Mac Thornberry called Trump “clear-eyed about the complexities of the mission,” and said “he has set out a reasonable way ahead that begins with being honest about the requirements needed to win.”
On the other side of the aisle, Sen. Tammy Duckworth called Trump’s speech “filled with bluster but devoid of details,” and charged it with putting U.S. and NATO troops in danger without giving them the certainty they need. “I don’t trust him,” said Rep. Eric Swalwell, a ranking Democratic on the House Intelligence panel. “Sixteen years of war in Afghanistan is enough. Time for Donald Trump to come to Congress for a vote on further action.” And House Democratic Caucus Chairman Joe Crowley insisted he didn’t hear any new strategy in the president’s remarks last night. “Despite campaigning on a grand vision to withdraw troops from this long-running military conflict, it is clear that President Trump lacks a comprehensive plan to keep American troops out of harm’s way,” Crowley said.
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.
BIG WINS FOR BOEING, NORTHROP: Boeing and Northrop Grumman both won contracts Monday for the next phase of the Air Force’s Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent program to replace its Minuteman III missiles, the Defense Department announced.
The development leaves Lockheed Martin out of the competition to replace the intercontinental ballistic missile, which is the land-based leg of the nation’s nuclear triad.
Boeing received a $349 million contract, while Northrop’s was for $328 million. The cash covers “technology maturation and risk reduction” for the program and work will be completed by Aug. 20, 2020, the Pentagon said. After this phase, the Air Force will choose a single contractor to build the missiles.
HAPPENING TODAY: Mattis landed in Baghdad today for a quick in-and-out visit to confer with senior Iraqi government leaders and U.S. commanders. As is the usual practice, for security reasons, the stop was not announced ahead of time. Mattis will also stop in Irbil in northern Iraq to meet with Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani, to thank him for the vital help in defeating ISIS. Mattis will leave Iraq today for Turkey, and then continue on to Ukraine before returning to Washington Thursday.
In Jordan yesterday, Mattis and special White House envoy Brett McGurk spoke to the traveling press and McGurk said the just-launched Iraqi offensive to clear ISIS out of Tal Afar, was “going well,” despite stiff resistance. Tal Afar is the last major city that ISIS is holding in northern Iraq. “That will be a very difficult battle, but even in the first 24 hours about 235 square kilometers were cleared,” McGurk said. “These delegations of tactical authorities from the president has really made a difference on the ground. I’ve seen that with my own eyes.”
ISIS “LAST STAND” IN THE MERV: Much of the focus now is in an area referred to as the MERV, an acronym for Middle Euphrates River Valley, a geographic area roughly bounded by the western Iraqi city of al-Qaim and the eastern Syrian city of Der el-Zour. Mattis told reporters that remaining ISIS fighters are trapped there in a military vise that will squeeze them from both sides, and referred to the MERV as “ISIS’s last stand,” according to AP. “You see, ISIS is now caught in-between converging forces,” Mattis said. “So ISIS’s days are certainly numbered, but it’s not over yet and it’s not going to be over any time soon.”
McCAIN BACKS FLEET PAUSE: In another statement issued while he is undergoing chemo treatment at his home in Arizona, McCain said yesterday that he supports Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson’s decision to institute “an operational pause” spread over the next week or so. The pause will allow commanders time to review training and procedures following the second collision in recent months involving a U.S. Navy ship, this one named after his father and grandfather, the USS John S. McCain
“I agree with Admiral Richardson that more forceful action is urgently needed to identify and correct the causes of the recent ship collisions,” McCain said in a statement. “Our sailors who risk their lives every day, in combat and in training, deserve no less. I expect full transparency and accountability from the Navy leaders as they conduct the associated investigations and reviews.”
BREAKING THIS MORNING: “Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet says some remains of Navy sailors were found in a compartment of USS John S. McCain,” the Associated Press reports. Ten sailors were listed as missing after the collision, and the search at sea east of the Strait of Malacca is continuing.
JUST AN ACCIDENT? Human nature is suspicious of coincidences, even though they happen all the time. For now there is no indication that the two similar incidents, in which the destroyers USS Fitzgerald and USS John S. McCain suffered similar damage under similar circumstances in the same part of the world are directly related or the result of any nefarious act, such as sabotage or cyber attack. Nevertheless CNN reported this morning that McCain “experienced a loss of steering before the collision, but that steering had been regained.”
The Navy’s top admiral said yesterday a broad fleet-wide review will look at all possible causes for the unusual coincidence, including the unlikely possibility either accident was the result intentional hostile acts or sabotage. “That is something that we are giving full consideration to,” Richardson said. “We have no indication that that’s the case, yet, but we are looking at every possibility. We are not leaving anything to chance.” Richardson noted that for two ships of the same class from the same fleet to be involved in similar at-sea collisions in the same part of the world is highly unusual. “That gives great cause for concern that there is something out there that we are not getting at,” Richardson said.
In a nod to the rampant social media speculation that Chinese hackers may have played a role in the collisions, Richardson later tweeted: “2 clarify Re: possibility of cyber intrusion or sabotage, no indications right now…but review will consider all possibilities.”
SEARCH SUSPENDED FOR ARMY AVIATORS: The search for five U.S. Army aviators aboard a Black Hawk helicopter that went missing off the Hawaiian island of Oahu on Aug. 15 during a night-time training operation has been called off. “A decision to suspend searching without finding survivors is extremely difficult given the depth of its impact and I know I speak for the entire Coast Guard when I say our thoughts and prayers are with the Army helicopter squadron and particularly with families and loved ones of those missing,” Rear Adm. Vincent Atkins, a Coast Guard commander, wrote in a statement. The lost helicopter was part of the Army’s 25th Infantry Division combat aviation brigade based at Schofield Barracks on Oahu. The UH-60 Black Hawk’s aircrew was conducting a training exercise between Dillingham Airfield and Ka’ena Point when communications were lost.
NEW RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Anatoly Antonov is replacing Sergei Kislyak as Russia’s ambassador to the U.S. “Under a presidential decree Anatoly Antonov has been appointed Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the United States of America and permanent observer of the Russian Federation at the Organization of American States in Washington, the United States of America,” the Kremlin said Monday, according to Tass, Russia’s state-owned news agency.
Antonov has served as Russia’s acting ambassador to the U.S. since Kislyak’s return. Kislyak was recalled by Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 25 and returned home in early July, after he became the center of attention in news stories about his meetings with then-presidential candidate Trump and other meetings with members of Trump’s inner circle.
DID RUSSIA REALLY VIOLATE THE INF? Arms control expert Hans Kristensen notes that the Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center has quietly published a corrected report on the world’s Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threats that deletes a previously identified Russian ground-launched cruise missile. The earlier version, published on June 26, identified a “ground” version of the 3M-14 land-attack cruise missile that appeared to identify the ground-launched cruise missile the United States has accused Russia of testing and deploying in violation of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. The corrected version, available on the NASIC website, no longer lists a “ground” version of the 3M-14 (popularly referred to as Kalibr) but only ship- and submarine-launched versions of the missile.
NOT COOL, AMERICANS: State Department officials have suspended the issuance of visas to Russian citizens, to the annoyance of Russian diplomats. “[W]e will not take it out on US citizens,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Monday, per state-run media. “That is, if someone hoped that in that case one fool makes many, they were mistaken.”
The U.S. embassy in Moscow announced the decision in response to Putin’s move to slash the number of American personnel working in his country. The development continues a diplomatic back and forth that traces back to Russian interference in the 2016 election. The target audience is the Russian people, as Putin’s team seeks to blame western powers for the standoff.
NO JURY FOR BERGDAHL: Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl has waived his right to a jury trial, and instead will put his fate exclusively in the hands of the judge who will hear his case. Bergdahl’s decision was made clear in court documents filed by his attorneys, according to the Associated Press. Bergdahl stands accused of desertion and misbehavior before the enemy by leaving his post while on duty in Afghanistan in 2009. His trial is scheduled for October at Fort Bragg. One of the charges he’s facing carries a maximum sentence of life in prison.
UNDER NEW MANAGEMENT: The Defense Writers Group, a breakfast series that brings newsmakers and people who used to be called “print reporters” together is changing hands after nearly four decades. “The DWG was started in late ‘70s by Ken Bacon and Vern Orr, who believed there needed to be an alternative to the standard ways in which national security information was disseminated,” writes Harry Disch, who ran the popular program for 34 years, as part of the Center for Media and Security programs. George Washington University’s School of Media and Public Affairs has stepped in to keep the group going as part of its Project for Media and National Security. “Our school shares DWG’s mission to best inform the public and the belief that your work is crucial for an effective democratic process,” writes former CNN Washington Bureau chief Frank Sesno, who is now the director, of GW’s School of Media and Public Affairs. “We highly value the opportunity to bring this D.C. institution to GW.”
THE RUNDOWN
USNI News: Chain of incidents involving U.S. Navy warships in the Western Pacific raise readiness, training questions
Foreign Policy: Building the Afghan air force will take years
Stars and Stripes: Army identifies missing Black Hawk crew members after suspending lengthy search
Defense One: What we still don’t know about the Islamic State’s foreign fighters
Reuters: North Korea shipments to Syria chemical arms agency intercepted: U.N. report
Politico: U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan since 2001
New York Times: South Korea and U.S. begin drills as North warns of rising tensions
Washington Post: Here are six costly failures from America’s longest war. No. 1: cashmere goats.
War on the Rocks: U.S. Cyber Command now stands taller, but can it see further?
Wall Street Journal: Russia’s new ambassador to U.S. seen as hard-liner
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | AUG. 23
12:30 p.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Reddit ‘ask me anything’ on artificial intelligence and global security. cnas.org
THURSDAY | AUG. 24
1:30 p.m. 1300 Wilson Blvd. PSA Captains of Industry roundtable lunch with Rear Adm. David Hahn, chief of naval research and director of innovation, technology requirements, and test and evaluation. ndia.org
