TRUMP’S WAR ON INTELLIGENCE: One thing we know about President Trump is he trusts his gut instincts over complicated data analysis. And one thing we know about intelligence is that it is rarely 100 percent conclusive, even when it’s said to be a “slam dunk,” as former CIA Director George Tenet described the flawed intelligence on Saddam Hussein’s WMD in 2002.

HAPPENING TODAY— MORE 4Q EARNINGS: The fourth quarter of 2019 is turning out to be a mixed one for the nation’s major defense contractors, who should be benefiting from the full-funding of the Pentagon, as well as stronger global demand for fighter jets and munitions.

So far Lockheed Martin, Boeing and General Dynamics have reported fourth-quarter results, and two more major weapons-makers are reporting results today, Northrop Grumman and Raytheon.

GD EARNINGS DISAPPOINT: General Dynamics Corp on forecast 2019 profits lower than analysts estimated and said margins in its critical business jet unit would not improve substantially until 2020, sending shares down nearly 4 percent, per Reuters.

BOEING GOING GANGBUSTERS: On the other hand Boeing Co. saw its stock price jump 6 percent after it raised its profit and cash flow expectations for 2019.

The Chicago-based plane-maker won lucrative new contracts for a Navy drone and an Air Force training jet in 2018, which pushed its sales figures to a new high.

Revenue grew 8 percent to $101.1 billion, Boeing said yesterday, driven by a lucrative fourth quarter that included higher fighter-jet sales in its military unit and increased deliveries of commercial planes, such as the composite-plastic 787 Dreamliner. Earnings of $16.01 a share topped the $15.11 average estimate from analysts surveyed by FactSet.

$2 BILLION AEGIS DEAL TO JAPAN: The State Department has approved the potential sale to Japan of two Lockheed Martin Aegis Weapon Systems, along with related equipment in a deal that is estimated to be worth $2.15 billion. General Dynamics Corp will get the work for “command and control processor refresh.”

The Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of the possible sale Tuesday.

DEMS PUSH FOR ‘NO USE FIRST’ OF NUKES: House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep.  Adam Smith, D-Wash. has teamed with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee to introduce legislation in both chambers of Congress to restrict bar U.S. from initiating the use of nuclear weapons.

The U.S. has never adopted a “no use first” policy for nuclear weapons, but Smith and Warren argue “our current nuclear strategy is not just outdated — it is dangerous.”

Still, it’s unlikely that the legislation if it were to pass, would ever be signed by President Trump, who would be ceding what has been a presidential prerogative since the dawn of the nuclear age.

Trump’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review states a “no first use” policy for nuclear weapons would limit the U.S. ability to preserve strategic ambiguity about when and how the U.S. might employ nuclear weapons.

NO WALL, NO DEAL: President Trump says lawmakers are “wasting their time” if the border security talks that began yesterday don’t include funding for a physical barrier at the southern border. “If the committee of Republicans and Democrats now meeting on Border Security is not discussing or contemplating a Wall or Physical Barrier, they are Wasting their time!” Trump tweeted yesterday morning.

House Democrats drafted an opening bid that leaves out funding for a wall or barrier along the southern border. “If you are asking if there is any money for a border wall, there is not,” Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard, D-Calif., a top appropriator and member of the panel, said.

Roybal-Allard is among a bipartisan group of 17 House and Senate lawmakers who met for the first time yesterday in an effort to strike a deal on border security and federal funding by a Feb. 15 deadline.

The leader of the group, House Appropriations Chair Rep. Nita Lowey, D-N.Y., said she is not ruling out wall funding as the negotiations proceed. But she suggested Democrats will stick to their currently-held view that a border wall is unnecessary and that other enhancements, such as technology, would be more effective.

In an appearance Tuesday night on Fox, the president’s son Eric Trump told Sean Hannity, his father would likely declare an emergency if he doesn’t get sufficient money for wall or border barriers. “I want him to declare an emergency,” he said.

Speaking on CNN, Sen. Chris Coons D-Del., repeated the Democrats’ mantra that there is no crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border, citing the fact the subject never came up when all the top intelligence and law enforcement official testified Tuesday Senate hearing on worldwide threats

“Notice they did not testify that the southern border and the absence of a wall there is a great security threat to our country,” Coons told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer.

STRIKES SHOW ISIS STILL PUTTING UP A FIGHT: Sometimes it pays to look at the details of the routine strike releases put out by the U.S.-led coalition still fighting what’s left of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

For the two-week period between Jan. 13-26 the coalition conducted 645 strikes against 1,360 targets in Syria, using “fighter, attack, bomber, rotary-wing, or remotely piloted aircraft, rocket-propelled artillery and ground-based tactical artillery.” The numbers show that even as the Pentagon predicts victory by the end of February, the fighting is fierce:

“In Syria, 645 strikes engaged 394 ISIS tactical units, and destroyed 244 fighting positions, 172 supply routes, 85 staging areas, 21 vehicles, 17 buildings, 15 vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices, 14 mortar launching sites, 13 manufacturing facilities for improvised explosive devices, 12 command and control nodes, nine tunnels, eight weapons catches, seven pieces of engineering equipment, five launching sites for unmanned aircraft systems, two weapons storage facilities, two mortar tubes, two improvised explosive devices, one unmanned aircraft system, one machine gun, one logistic node and one checkpoint.”

Repeating for emphasis, over two weeks 394 ISIS tactical units 244 “fighting positions” were attacked by mostly U.S. assets.

PAY RAISE FOR DoD CIVILIANS: When Congress passed the Pentagon’s budget for the current fiscal year, it included a 2.6 percent pay increase for the uniformed military. But the more than 700,000 civilians who work side-by-side were left out, and President Trump wanted to freeze their salaries and give them no pay raise for 2019.

That was before the 35-day shutdown, after which Trump heaped praise on the federal workforce, including those DoD civilians. “I want to thank all of the incredible federal workers, and their amazing families, who have shown such extraordinary devotion in the face of this recent hardship,” Trump said last week when he announced he was temporality ending the partial government shutdown. “You are fantastic people. You are incredible patriots. Many of you have suffered far greater than anyone, but your families would know or understand.”

Yesterday, with the help of 29 Republicans, the House voted to give federal workers the same 2.6 percent raise. That came over the objections of most Republicans, who said federal employees are already paid more on average than their private-sector counterparts. Every Democrat voted for the bill, which passed the House 259-161.

THE PROBLEM WITH PARTNERS: The Center for Strategic and International Studies is out with a new analysis of the pros and cons of working “by, with, and through” partner forces in counterterrorism missions, titled: “Imperfect Proxies: The Pros and Perils of Partnering with Non-State Actors for CT.” From the report:

Pro: Will to Fight: Lacking the resources and capabilities of a national army, non-state actors may have a strong incentive to partner with foreign powers when terrorist groups pose a military or even existential threat to the militia and its people.

Con: But Not Just for You: Militia may perceive terrorist groups as one among several enemies amid a multi-faceted civil conflict and shift their attention and arms toward other foes when the terrorist threat ebbs, losing the incentive to press the CT fight to the finish. Non-state actors may also view Western-backed CT campaigns as a means to expand their own spheres of influence at the expense of local rivals and adversaries.

MEA CULPA: Yesterday, I unintentionally broke an embargo on the latest SIGAR report on Afghanistan. It was supposed to be held for release for this morning. After hearing the report cited on BBC in the predawn hours, I misread the embargo time and mistook midnight last night for the night before.

My apologies to both the office of Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction and my colleagues in the press for the inadvertent scoop. “To err is human, to forgive divine,” but unfortunately neither is the policy of my editor David Mark.

THE RUNDOWN

Breaking Defense: HASC Dems Press To Resume Korea Wargames; Trump Tweets Vs. Intel Community

Bloomberg: Stagnant F-35 Reliability Means Fewer Available Jets: Pentagon

The Hill: Bipartisan House group introduces bills to stall Syria, South Korea troop withdrawals

Wall Street Journal:  Islamic State Enlists Women as Covert Operatives in Survival Bid

Military Times: Iraq, Afghanistan vets are split on whether wars were ‘worth it’

New York Times: Kremlin Sees Venezuela As Different From Syria

Military.com: As Russia, China Threaten, Navy SEALs Get a New Focus

Military.com:  Family of Fallen Navy Linguist Fights Regulation That Forced Her Deployment

Stars and Stripes:  VA unveils proposed new rules to expand private-sector care

The National Interest: What the Coast Guard Crisis Should Teach Congress

USNI News: Navy to Honor First Female Fighter Pilot with Female-Piloted Flyover at Funeral