A DAY OF STARK WARNINGS: From President Joe Biden at the White House, to Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the United Nations, to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at NATO, the message was the same: All signs point to a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the coming days.
Biden told reporters the threat is “very high” because Russia has not moved any of its troops out but has moved more troops in. “We have reason to believe that they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in. Every indication we have is they’re prepared to go into Ukraine,” Biden said. “My sense is this will happen within the next several days.”
At the U.N., Blinken laid out how the U.S. believes the invasion would unfold. “Communications will be jammed. Cyberattacks will shut down key Ukrainian institutions. After that, Russian tanks and soldiers will advance on key targets that have already been identified and mapped out in detailed plans. We believe these targets include Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million people,” Blinken told the Security Council. “And conventional attacks are not all that Russia plans to inflict upon the people of Ukraine. We have information that indicates Russia will target specific groups of Ukrainians.”
“I am mindful that some have called into question our information, recalling previous instances where intelligence ultimately did not bear out. But let me be clear: I am here today, not to start a war, but to prevent one,” Blinken said. The information I’ve presented here is validated by what we’ve seen unfolding in plain sight before our eyes for months.”
At NATO, Austin said the U.S. sees no evidence Russia’s 150,000 invasion force is standing down. “We see some of those troops inch closer to that border. We see them fly in more combat and support aircraft. We see them sharpen their readiness in the Black Sea. We even see them stocking up their blood supplies.”
“You don’t do these sort of things for no reason, and you certainly don’t do them if you’re getting ready to pack up and go home.”
LLOYD AUSTIN: RUSSIAN TROOPS ‘INCH CLOSER TO’ UKRAINIAN BORDER
‘MEMBERSHIP IN NATO IS OUR GOAL’: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has steadfastly refused Russian President Vladimir Putin’s key demand that Ukraine gives up its aspirations to join NATO, despite the very real threat he could be deposed by Russian troops in the days ahead.
“With regard to NATO, our position was and is and will remain unchanged. It’s something that we have in our Constitution. It’s something that our people, the majority of Ukrainians, support, and it’s something that we work really hard to get into,” said Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova on CNN.
“We would like to be part of NATO, and we would like to be part of the European Union,” Markarova said. “We want to be not only independent and sovereign, but we also want to be European and democratic. So, membership in NATO is our goal, and we work day and night to get there.”
RUSSIA EXPELS SENIOR DIPLOMAT FROM US EMBASSY AS WAR FEARS RISE
THE COMEDIAN VS THE KGB AGENT: “I give a lot of credit to the Ukrainian president. The Ukrainian president, a young, inexperienced politician, he’s been in office for two years. President Putin has been in office for 22 years. He’s a KGB operative,” says William Taylor, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. “The Ukrainian president is staring down President Putin. He is holding on, and he’s standing up, and he’s not giving in to this pressure of all these troops on the border.”
In an appearance on CNN last night, Taylor said that he thinks Putin may be taken aback, not just by his inability to intimidate Zelensky but also by NATO’s apparent resolve.
“I think what surprises Putin about NATO is its coherence. It is holding together. These European countries, sometimes, don’t hold together. But they’re all pulling in the same direction,” Taylor said. “It’s a major diplomatic feat. And so far, they’re holding firm.”
“I think Putin is going to look for a way out,” Taylor said. “I think that the price that he pays, the cost that is going to be weighed, on him, from the sanctions, from, frankly, dead Russian soldiers, coming back to villages, where they have to bury them, with parents, mothers, and fathers angry about why they are sacrificing their sons to invade their neighbor, their friendly neighbor. I think this is a big problem for President Putin. And I think he knows it.”
WHITE HOUSE WORKS TO KEEP UKRAINE’S NATO AMBITIONS ALIVE AS RUSSIA PRESSURES EUROPEAN BLOC
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Russia-Ukraine crisis is expected to dominate the discussions at the three-day Munich Security Conference just getting underway in Germany.
Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken are representing the United States as well as 40 members of the U.S. Congress.
Harris is scheduled to give a speech and meet today with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday.
KAMALA HARRIS NAVIGATES HIGH-STAKES DIPLOMATIC PATH IN MUNICH
NATO NOT READY FOR RUSSIA: The Center for Strategic and International Studies is out with a new report which argues that whatever happens in Ukraine, the showdown has demonstrated that the U.S. and the NATO alliance are unprepared for a serious military challenge from Russia.
“Regardless of how the current crisis develops, the Russian buildup on the border with Ukraine underscores the need for the U.S. and its NATO allies to take a far more serious look at how they are shaping the future defense of Europe,” says the report written by Anthony Cordesman and Grace Hwang.
“It is equally clear that the U.S. blundered badly under the Trump administration by focusing on burden-sharing rather than developing an effective mix of U.S. forces and a coherent effort to correct the many shortfalls in European forces,” the authors write. “Furthermore, it is clear that NATO is not making any serious real-world effort to improve its capabilities.”
AFGHANISTAN DISSENT CABLES: Republican Sens. Jim Risch of Idaho and John Thune of South Dakota have introduced legislation that would force the State Department to make public an unclassified version of the July 13, 2021, internal dissent channel cable that reportedly warned of the rapidly deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan and the Taliban’s ability to capture Kabul.
“There is a growing body of evidence that this administration dismissed dire reports from diplomats and military officers on the ground in Afghanistan that predicted a rapid Taliban advance and the need to drastically accelerate evacuation efforts,” said Risch, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in a press release. “Despite repeated requests, the State Department has refused to provide the Senate Foreign Relations Committee with a copy of the July 13 dissent cable and a description of changes the secretary made as a result.”
The bill would also require the State Department to provide Congress with a classified version of the dissent cable, removing any personally identifiable information of the senders.
BURN PIT BILL SAILS THROUGH SENATE: On Wednesday, the Senate unanimously passed the bipartisan Health Care for Burn Pit Veterans Act, which is designed to expand healthcare for post-9/11 combat veterans who are suffering from conditions believed to be linked to exposure from burn pits and other toxic exposures.
There are an estimated 3.5 million veterans who may have experienced some level of exposure to burn pits during their service, but nearly one-third are not currently eligible for healthcare from the VA. The bill, which now goes to the House, would extend the period eligibility for combat veterans from five years to ten years after they leave the military service.
While veterans groups generally applaud the passage, their praise is tempered by the fact that a key provision was not included — the addition of many illnesses and ailments to the list of diseases that are presumed to be the result of toxic exposure.
“The bill that just passed in the Senate basically does about a third of what we were asking for. Unfortunately, that’s because healthcare is expensive. Benefits are expensive,” says Jeremy Butler, CEO of Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America.
“But when you are sick and dying from rare cancers, that’s what you need. You need healthcare and benefits. So, that’s why we are not applauding this step. This is a small first step because it moves the ball legislatively down the line,” Butler said on CNN. “But it doesn’t get to where we need as veterans groups. So, we’re fighting for the much larger legislation that has been supported by veterans groups across the country for literally years now.”
“It’s frustrating. Almost every single veterans support organization in this country supports this larger legislation. It is mind blowing that Congress is not keeping the promise that it made over the 20 years that it was sending military members overseas,” he said. “For 20 years, we had no problem coming up with the trillions of dollars necessary to send them overseas. And now they’re saying it’s a little too expensive to keep that promise.”
WHEN SCIENCE IS TOO SLOW: DOING RIGHT BY BURN PIT VICTIMS
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: White House works to keep Ukraine’s NATO ambitions alive as Russia pressures European bloc
Washington Examiner: Kamala Harris navigates high-stakes diplomatic path in Munich
Washington Examiner: Biden warns Russian invasion of Ukraine could occur within ‘several days’
Washington Examiner: US: Russia ‘moving toward an imminent invasion’ of Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Russia expels senior diplomat from US Embassy as war fears rise
Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin: Russian troops ‘inch closer to’ Ukrainian border
Washington Examiner: UN officials tell Kremlin not to worsen ‘extremely dangerous situation’
Washington Examiner: Antony Blinken: Russia might use chemical weapons for Ukraine attack pretext
Washington Examiner: Congress approved a big increase in defense spending. The Pentagon has yet to see the money
Washington Examiner: US military is behind in meeting China threat: GAO
Washington Examiner: Navy grants first religious vaccine exemption, while Marines grant a handful more
Washington Examiner: Reported sexual assaults at military academies at a new height
Washington Examiner: Defense Department completes first unmanned Black Hawk helicopter flight
Washington Examiner: Opinion: China and Russia align against the world
AP: In Ukraine’s volatile east, a day of shelling, outages, fear
New York Times: Fear of War Rises as Shelling Pelts Eastern Ukraine
Military.com: Navy Fighting Against Surging Russian Disinformation Ahead Of Potential Ukraine Invasion
Marine Corps Times: The Marine Corps Is Not Moving Fast Enough To Face China, General Says
Task & Purpose: We’re Not Doing An Iwo Jima Again’ — Marine General Describes What Ground Combat With China Would Be Like
AP: Sexual Assault Reports Increase At U.S. Military Academies
New York Times: Revival of Nuclear Deal With Iran Inches Closer
CNN: U.S. Military Has Approved Religious Exemptions To Vaccine Mandate For 15 Service Members Out Of 16,000 Requests
Washington Post: Maryland Lawmakers Demand Answers About Living Conditions At Walter Reed Base Barracks
Bloomberg: Navy Tilt-Rotor Falls Short in U.S. Tests for Reliability at Sea
Defense News: Unmanned Or Minimally Manned Vessels Could Deploy Alongside Strike Groups As Soon As 2027
Air Force Magazine: Space Acquisition Nominee Pledges ‘Culture of Program Management Discipline’
Air Force Magazine: Air Force Installations Nominee ‘Regrets’ Calling for AI-monitoring of Troops for Extremism
Marine Corps Times: Russian Jets Intercepted On Marine F-35B Deployment With UK
Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Congress Passes Bill That Includes Funding To Defuel Red Hill
Air Force Magazine: Famed ‘Candy Bomber’ Gail Halvorsen Dies at 101
19fortyfive.com: Could Biden’s Offer of a New INF Treaty Stop a Russian Attack on Ukraine?
19fortyfive.com: Here’s What Joe Biden Is Offering to Russia to End the Ukraine Crisis
19fortyfive.com: Why North Korea’s Missiles Are a Growing Threat to US Military Bases
Calendar
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 18
All Day — The Munich Security Conference begins and goes through Sunday. Feb. 20 at its traditional venue, the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich. Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken attend, along withUkrainian President Vladimir Zelensky also plans to participate. https://securityconference.org/en/news/full/information
8 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Japan Institute of International Affairs virtual 2022 U.S.-Japan Security Seminar, with Japanese Foreign Affairs Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi; Kenichiro Sasae, president of JIIA; Tetsuo Kotani, senior fellow at JIIA; and Bonnie Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project. https://www.csis.org/events/2022-us-japan-security-seminar
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Future Foreign Policy: Where Now for U.S.-Russia Relations?” with Samuel Charap, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation; Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA; Alex Ward, national security reporter at Politico; and Emma Ashford, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ffp-where-now-for-us-russia-relations
10 a.m. — Center for the National Interest webinar: “A Discussion with Mike Pompeo: The Future of US Nuclear Strategy and Deterrence,” moderated by Harry Kazianis, senior director, Center for the National Interest, and executive editor of The National Interest. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Ukraine on the Eve of the Munich Security Conference,” with Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, ranking member on the House Permanent Select Intelligence Committee, member of the House Armed Services Committee. https://www.hudson.org/events/2076-virtual-event
10:45 a.m. — American Bar Association virtual National Security Law conference with sessions on “The End of Forever War? Now What?” and “The Future of National Security Surveillance.” https://web.cvent.com/event
12 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Last Chance: Preventing Europe’s Next Big War,” Hanna Shelest, director of security programs at the Foreign Policy Council’s Ukrainian Prism; Pavel Felgenhauer, defense analyst and columnist at Novaya Gazeta; former Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried, fellow at the Atlantic Council; former NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow, fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and Harlan Ullman, senior adviser at the Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/last-chance
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 22
10 a.m. — Center for a New American Security Mission Brief: “The Future of the Army National Guard,” with Lt. Gen. Jon Jensen, director, Army National Guard; and Becca Wasser, fellow, CNAS Defense Program. https://www.cnas.org/events/mission-brief-the-future-of-the-army-national-guard
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 24
2 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army webinar: “Understanding Russia’s Grand Strategy,” with Andrew Monaghan, director of the Russia Research Network. https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/anding-Russia-s-Grand-Strategy
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I am mindful that some have called into question our information, recalling previous instances where intelligence ultimately did not bear out. But let me be clear: I am here today, not to start a war, but to prevent one. The information I’ve presented here is validated by what we’ve seen unfolding in plain sight before our eyes for months.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, addressing the U.N. Security Council on Thursday
