THE WINDS OF WAR: Tensions are high as U.S. intelligence continues to monitor Russian troop movements and disinformation activities that point to a likely invasion of Ukraine as soon as midweek.
“We have seen over the course of the past 10 days a dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces and the disposition of those forces in such a way that they could launch a military action essentially at any time,” said national security adviser Jake Sullivan on CBS, repeating a dire assessment he first made Friday at a White House briefing. “They could do so this coming week. But, of course, it still awaits the go order. And so, therefore, we cannot predict the precise day or time that they may take action.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has told his commanders to be ready by Wednesday, as the final pieces of the invasion force are brought in from far reaches of Russia, according to U.S. intelligence that has been shared with Ukraine and U.S. allies in Europe.
OPINION: PUTIN HAS NOT YET ORDERED UKRAINE INVASION BUT NEW INDICATIONS SUGGEST IT IS IMMINENT
BEWARE THE FALSE FLAG: “We also are watching very carefully for the possibility that there is a pretext or a false flag operation to kick off the Russian action, in which Russian intelligence services conduct some kind of attack on Russian proxy forces in Eastern Ukraine or on Russian citizens and then blame it on the Ukrainians,” said Sullivan.
“The Russian media has been laying the groundwork for this publicly by trying to condition their public that some kind of attack by the Ukrainians is imminent,” Sullivan told Margaret Brennan on Face the Nation. “There is a kind of bizarre quality to all of this, where the Russians are claiming they are the ones who are under threat, despite the fact that they have amassed more than 100,000 troops on the border of their neighbor.”
BIDEN’S UNPRODUCTIVE CALL WITH PUTIN: In an hourlong call on Saturday, President Joe Biden warned Putin that if Russia moves forces into Ukraine, the U.S. and its allies will “impose swift and severe costs on Russia,” according to a readout from the White House. “President Biden reiterated that a further Russian invasion of Ukraine would produce widespread human suffering and diminish Russia’s standing.”
But afterward, a senior administration official admitted the phone call, while “professional and substantive” in tone, produced “no fundamental change in the dynamic that has been unfolding now for several weeks.”
Putin seemed unmoved and uninterested in de-escalating. “Russia may decide to proceed with military action anyway. Indeed, that is a distinct possibility,” the official told reporters in a conference call. “We are basing this assessment on what we are seeing on the ground with our own eyes, which is a continued Russian buildup on the border with Ukraine and no meaningful evidence of de-escalation or, really, of any interest in de-escalation.”
BIDEN TELLS PUTIN A UKRAINE INVASION WOULD BRING ‘SEVERE CONSEQUENCES’
WORST CASE: 50,000 CASUALTIES: The U.S. is warning that if Russia conducts a full-scale mechanized invasion, it would result in a political, economic, and humanitarian disaster, resulting in thousands of civilian deaths and creating a massive wave of refugees fleeing the fighting.
“If there is a military invasion of Ukraine by Russia, it’s likely to begin with a significant barrage of missiles and bomb attacks,” said Sullivan on CNN. “Those are never as precise as the army — any army — would like them to be. And we don’t even know how precise the Russian army would like them to be. So, innocent civilians could be killed regardless of their nationality.”
“It would then be followed by an onslaught of a ground force moving across the Ukrainian frontier, again, where innocent civilians could get caught in the crossfire or get trapped in places that they could not move from,” he said.
On Friday, the Pentagon announced it has ordered the remaining 3,000 soldiers of the 82nd Airborne Infantry Brigade Combat Team to move to Poland. They are leaving from Fort Bragg, North Carolina, and are expected to be in place by tomorrow.
The troops will join 1,700 already there, who have been erecting tents on the Polish side of the border with Ukraine, in anticipation of the need to assist Americans who are evacuating Ukraine at the urging of the U.S. government.
AUSTIN DEPLOYS 3,000 MORE TROOPS TO POLAND AMID HEIGHTENED WARNINGS ABOUT UKRAINE
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden returns to the White House at 10:30 a.m. after spending the weekend at Camp David along with the first lady. The only thing on his public schedule is his regular Oval Office daily intelligence briefing.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in Ukraine today, and he plans to go to Moscow, where he will be the latest NATO leader to try to persuade Putin to stand down.
EVERYBODY’S CALLING EVERYBODY: For the past few days, everyone has been burning up the phone lines consulting about the declining prospect for a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine crisis and the increasing prospect of war.
In addition to talking to Putin on Saturday, Biden called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday to reaffirm the U.S. commitment to Ukraine’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity,” according to the White House, and Biden made clear that the United States would respond swiftly and decisively, together with its allies and partners, to any further Russian aggression.
Meanwhile, Putin spoke on Saturday with President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, where 30,000 Russian troops are conducting joint exercises and would be the forces used to attack the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, which is just an hour’s drive south of the Belarussian border.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was on a tour of Pacific nations, called his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov Saturday to discuss “acute and shared concerns that Russia may be considering launching further military aggression against Ukraine in the coming days.” Afterward, Blinken called British Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss, to stress that any decision the U.S. makes in response to Russia’s actions “will be in consultation with our allies and partners,” and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, to reaffirm America’s robust support for Ukraine.
At the Pentagon, both Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley called their Russian counterparts, Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and Chief of Russian General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov.
Austin discussed “Russia’s force build-up in Crimea and around Ukraine,” according to a Pentagon statement, while Milley discussed “several security-related issues of concern,” according to his office.
Austin and Milley also made a round of calls Friday to their counterparts in key NATO countries, including Poland, Germany, Canada, France, Romania, and Italy.
TRAINS, PLANES, OR AUTOMOBILES: The U.S. government is screaming to Americans still in Ukraine, “Pick your mode of transportation, and get the heck outta Dodge.”
“It isn’t just time to leave Ukraine; it is past time for private citizens to leave Ukraine,” said a senior State Department official over the weekend. “It appears increasingly likely that this is where this situation is headed, toward some kind of active conflict,” the official told reporters in a conference call on Saturday. “There are real limits to what we are able to do in a war zone.”
“There is plenty of time … and there’s plenty of infrastructure in Ukraine right now to do that. The airports are still running, the railroads are still running, the highways are still open,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby on Fox News Sunday. “So, there’s plenty of opportunities for Americans to leave, and they really should take these warnings and these advisories very seriously.”
The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine is urging Americans to head to the Polish border, where U.S. troops will be there to greet them.
“Poland has indicated to the U.S. government that U.S. citizens may now enter Poland through the land border with Ukraine. No advanced approval is required,” the embassy says on its website. “We encourage those traveling into Poland by land from Ukraine to cross at the Korczowa-Krakovets or Medyka-Shehyni border crossings. U.S. citizens must present a valid U.S. passport and proof of COVID-19 vaccination.”
THE CAVALRY ISN’T COMING: In his Super Bowl pregame interview, recorded Thursday, Biden said sending U.S. troops into Kyiv or other parts of Ukraine to rescue Americans after an invasion is underway would risk direct combat with Russian forces.
Biden told NBC’s Lester Holt there’s no scenario under which U.S. troops would enter Ukraine. “That’s a world war,” Biden said. “When Americans and Russians start shooting at one another, we’re in a very different world than we’ve ever been.”
“Not even on behalf of simply evacuating Americans?” Holt pressed.
“No. How do you do that? How do you even find them?” Biden replied, while adding he doesn’t think Putin would intentionally target U.S. troops. “If, in fact, he’s foolish enough to go in, he’s smart enough not to, in fact, do anything that would negatively impact on American citizens.”
The U.S. has already pulled 160 military trainers from the Florida National Guard out of Ukraine and “repositioned” them elsewhere in Europe.
AUSTIN ORDERS FLORIDA NATIONAL GUARD MEMBERS IN UKRAINE TO LEAVE
THIS IS NO AFGHANISTAN: “Because the American people saw the United States deploy thousands of soldiers and then evacuate 124,000 people from Kabul last August, it’s totally possible that there are some Americans out there in Ukraine thinking the exact same thing is going to happen in Ukraine,” said Sullivan on CBS.
“That is not, in fact, the case,” he said. “There is a big difference between ending a 20-year war in Afghanistan and sending American forces in to fight Russian forces near their border in a war in Ukraine, which the president is not prepared to do. So, we are trying to dispel any notion that the United States is going to deploy thousands of forces to Ukraine to fight in order to evacuate Americans.”
‘I AM REJECTING THEM’: On the subject of Afghanistan, in that same NBC interview, Biden rejected the opinions of senior commanders cited in two Army after-action reports that faulted the August evacuation effort in Afghanistan for failing to grasp how fast Kabul would fall and for resisting efforts from the military to prepare for an evacuation operation much sooner.
“That’s not what I was told,” Biden said. “No one told me that — look, there was no good time to get out.”
“I just want to clarify,” Holt said. “Are you rejecting the conclusions or the accounts that are in this Army report?
“Yes, I am,” Biden replied.
“They are not true?” Holt pressed, to which Biden said, “I am rejecting them.”
‘THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE’: Biden’s national security adviser also disputed the report, insisting that “the opposite is true.”
“From the president on down, it was the White House and the NSC pushing military leaders and diplomats day by day through those early days of August to say, should we begin the evacuation now?” Jake Sullivan said on CBS. “And as soon as, the minute our military leaders and diplomats recommended to the president that he do so, literally, that minute, he ordered the evacuation.”
On Fox, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby argued the interviews presented just a partial picture that will be incorporated into a wider study of the end of the U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.
“I think we need to keep these documents in perspective. They’re basically interview documents that were meant to assist our investigation into the Abbey Gate bombing,” Kirby said. “They’re valuable documents that will be used for a much larger after-action review that the Pentagon is conducting right now, which will take not just what was happening at the airport, but what was happening over the course of — since the Doha agreement was signed in February 2020, and a larger strategic level.”
US-CANADA BORDER CROSSING REOPENED: Canada says it has managed to reopen the Ambassador Bridge between Windsor, Ontario, and Detroit, Michigan, after a series of arrests of truckers protesting coronavirus restrictions who had blocked the major border crossing for almost a week.
“We are working closely with our Canadian counterparts to end the blockade of key bridges and crossings between the United States and Canada and to restore vital commerce between our two nations,” said Liz Sherwood-Randall, White House homeland security adviser, in a statement.
The Canadian government has indicated that “most protestors have been cleared from the Ambassador Bridge, barriers are being removed, and the corridor is being secured,” Sherwood-Randall said, adding, “Canadian authorities are taking proactive steps to ensure no further unlawful disruption of the flow of people and goods occurs.”
SMALL COUNTERPROTESTS POP UP IN OTTAWA, BUT SUPPORT FOR FREEDOM CONVOY GROWS
LOOK, UP IN THE SKY: If you blinked, you missed it. The Air Force’s Heritage Flight Team conducted a first-of-its-kind flyover of SoFi Stadium at last night’s Super Bowl. The five-plane formation was led by a World War II-era P-51 Mustang, flanked by an A-10C Thunderbolt II, an F-16 Fighting Falcon, an F-22 Raptor, and an F-35A Lightning II.
You get a slightly better view on the Twitter video of the rehearsal.
For the record, the Los Angeles Rams came back to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals, scoring a late touchdown with less than two minutes on the clock. Final score: 23-20
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Biden tells Putin a Ukraine invasion would bring ‘severe consequences’
Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin deploys 3,000 more troops to Poland amid heightened warnings about Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin orders Florida National Guard members in Ukraine to leave
Washington Examiner: US evacuates embassy as warnings to Americans in Ukraine reach new levels
Washington Examiner: White House warns Americans to leave Ukraine in ’24 to 48 hours,’ threat ‘now immediate enough’
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Putin has not yet ordered Ukraine invasion but new indications suggest it is imminent
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian ambassador compares Emmanuel Macron to Neville Chamberlain as Russian attack looms
Washington Examiner: Biden: ‘I’m rejecting’ military’s firsthand account of White House failures in Afghanistan evacuation
Washington Examiner: Judge extends temporary order protecting two military officers who refused vaccine
Washington Examiner: Retired Marine lieutenant general says critical race theory ‘undermines our military’s unity’
USNI News: Ukraine On High Alert As Russian Naval Exercise Threatens To Block Parts Of The Black Sea
Navy Times: Navy Deploys Four Destroyers To 6th Fleet To Support NATO Allies
New York Times: Amid Threats, Ukraine Is Led By An Optimist
Reuters: U.S. Denies It Carried Out Operations In Russian Territorial Waters
The Hill: GOP faces hurdles in blocking a Biden Iran deal
Reuters: Nuclear Talks Harder As West ‘Pretends’ To Take Initiative -Iran Official
Air Force Magazine: U.S. Jets Deployed to Poland, Romania Are ‘Prepared to Scramble’ in Support of NATO Air Policing
Bloomberg: U.S. Sees China Watching Ukraine Crisis As Proxy For Taiwan
Reuters: Quad Ministers Address Indo-Pacific ‘Coercion’, Climate, COVID
New York Times: In Fiji, Blinken Says U.S. Has ‘Long-Term Future’ In The Pacific Islands
New York Times: Afghan Diplomats Seek Permission to Stay in U.S.
Air Force Magazine: Air Force to Field MRAPs Fitted With Laser, Robotic Arm to Blow Up Unexploded Bombs
Air Force Magazine: Space Force’s Innovation Chief Thinks Investment in the Metaverse Could Pay Off for the Military
Air Force Magazine: Finland Formalizes Deal for 64 Block 4 F-35s
Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Hawaii’s Congressional Delegation Introduces Bills To Permanently Close Red Hill Fuel Tanks
Military.com: ‘I’m Pretty Much Leading A Double Life:’ Nonbinary Troops And The Pentagon’s Next Frontier
19fortyfive.com: A Russia-Ukraine War: A Missile and Artillery Battle Like No Other?
19fortyfive.com: Ukraine Crisis: B-52 Bombers, F-15, and F-16 Fighters Move Closer to Russia
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Joe Biden Should Go To Ukraine, Not Evacuate It
Calendar
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 14
8 a.m. — Arab Center virtual conference: “The Conflict in Yemen: Current Situation and Future Prospects,” with State Department Special Envoy for Yemen Timothy Lenderking https://dohainstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
9 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Raising the Economic Costs For Russia’s Continued Aggression Toward Ukraine,” with Maria Shagina, visiting fellow in the U.S. Center for Politics and Power’s Finnish Institute of International Affairs; Tom Keatinge, director of the Centre for Financial Crime and Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute; and Edward Fishman, adjunct fellow in the CNAS Energy, Economics, and Security Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-raising-the-economic-costs-for-russia
9 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Asia Program virtual China Conference on “The U.S.-China Trade War, Multinationals, and China’s Economy” https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/wilson-china-fellowship-conference-2022#
12 p.m. — Project 2049 Institute event: “Taiwan’s Global Gravity: The Push and Pull of Coercive and Annihilative Cross-Strait Scenarios,” with Amb. Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan’s representative to the U.S.; Randall Schriver, former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs; Rep. Elaine Luria D-Va.; and others https://project2049.net/event/taiwans-global-gravity
1 p.m. — East-West Center in Washington virtual discussion: “North Korea and the Middle East: Lessons Learned for U.S.-North Korea Relations,” with Suzanne DiMaggio, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Yaakov Katz, editor-in-chief at the Jerusalem Post; Siegfried Hecker, senior fellow at Stanford University’s Institute for International Studies; Keith Luse, executive director of the National Committee on North Korea; and Satu Limaye, director of the East-West Center https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 15
5:30 a.m. — International Institute for Strategic Studies virtual launch of its 2022 edition of “The Military Balance” https://www.iiss.org/events/2022/02/military-balance-2022-launch
7 a.m. — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg briefs reporters at NATO headquarters ahead of Wednesday and Thursday meeting of the NATO defense ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
8 a.m. — Arab Center virtual conference: “The Conflict in Yemen: Current Situation and Future Prospects,” with U.N. Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg https://dohainstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Robert Storch to be DOD Inspector General; Dr. Lester Martinez-Lopez to be assistant secretary of defense for health affairs; and Christopher Lowman to be assistant secretary of defense for sustainment. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/nominations
10 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Middle East Program virtual discussion: “War in Yemen: Implications for Regional and U.S. Security,” with former State Department Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook, vice chairman of Cerberus Global Investments; Fatima Abo Alasrar, nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute; and Katherine Zimmerman, fellow at the American Enterprise Institute https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/war-yemen-implications
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army webinar: “Warrant Officer Talent Management,” with Chief Warrant Officer 5 Rick Knowlton, the senior warrant officer adviser for the Army Talent Management Task Force; CW5 Patrick Nelligan, command chief warrant officer of the Army Reserve Command; and CW5 Teresa Domeier, command chief warrant officer of the Army National Guard https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/-Noon-Report-Talent-Management
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Strategic Readiness: Meeting the Challenges of Today and Tomorrow,” with Shawn Skelly, assistant defense secretary for readiness; and Becca Wasser, fellow at the CNAS Defense Program: Register at https://www.cnas.org/events/mission-brief-preserving-readiness
1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion: “War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict,” with author and Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan https://www.csis.org/events/book-launch-war-transformed
2 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual discussion: “Russia and China on the Brink,” with former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner at WestExec https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/russia-and-ukraine-brink-discussion
2 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation discussion with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; and retired Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, dean of The Mitchell Institute https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 16
All Day — A two-day meeting of allied defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “What’s Next for India and the Quad?” with Sana Hashmi, visiting fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation; Manjari Chatterjee Miller, senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations; and Harsh Pant, director of studies at the New Delhi Observer Research Foundation’s Strategic Studies Program https://www.csis.org/events/whats-next-india-and-quad
10 a.m. — Air Force Association Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion on a new report, “Beyond Pixie Dust: A Framework for Understanding and Developing Autonomy in Unmanned Aircraft,” with author Heather Penney, AFA senior resident fellow https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/beyond-pixie-dust
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Missile Defense Project virtual discussion: “Project Convergence: An Experiment for Multidomain Operations,” with Lt. Gen. James Richardson, acting commanding general of Army Futures Command; Army Col. Toby Magsig, deputy exercise director for Project Convergence; and Gary Lambert, data collection and analysis lead for Project Convergence https://www.csis.org/events/project-convergence-experiment
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual book discussion on “War Transformed: The Future of 21st Century Great Power Competition and Conflict,” with author and Australian Army Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan, commander of the Australian Defense College; former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Eric Edelman, CSBA counselor; and Thomas Mahnken, CSBA president https://csbaonline.org/about/events/the-future-of-war
11 a.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “Who’s Afraid of the Military Industrial Complex? – The Shifting Politics of Pentagon Spending.” with Michael Brenes, interim director of the Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy and history lecturer at Yale University; Shana Marshall, associate director of the Institute for Middle East Studies at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs; William Hartung, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute; and Kelley Beaucar Vlahos, senior adviser at the Quincy Institute and editorial director of its online magazine https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — American Bar Association virtual discussion: “Germany’s Perspective of the Ukraine Crisis,” with Liana Fix, resident fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s Washington office; and Hermann Knott, partner at Koblenz, Mainz, Cologne and Dsseldor Law, Germany https://americanbar.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual discussion: “Targeting the Islamic State: Jihadist Military Threats and the U.S. Response,” with Craig Whiteside, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College; and Ido Levy, associate fellow at WINEP https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/targeting-islamic-state
12 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Assessing the Impact of Iraq’s Incoming Government,” with Feisal Al-Istrabadi, professor of global strategic studies at Indiana University at Bloomington; Sajad Jiyad, fellow at the Century Foundation; and Marsin Alshamary, research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Middle East Initiative https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/assessing-the-impact-of-iraqs-incoming-government
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “The Shrinking U.S. Fighting Force: Is the American Military Fading Into Irrelevance?” with retired Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro, CEO of the Punaro Group; Dan Patt, senior fellow at the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; and Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/2075-virtual-event-the-shrinking-us-fighting-force-is-the-american-military-fading-into-irrelevance-22022
12:30 p.m. — George Washington University Security Policy Studies Program virtual discussion: “American Arctic Strategy for the 21st Century,” with representatives from the Air Force and Space Force. https://calendar.gwu.edu/american-arctic-strategy-21st-century
3 p.m. —Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Future of the Royal Navy,” with UK First Sea Lord and Chief of Naval Staff Adm. Ben Key https://www.csis.org/events/future-royal-navy
3:30 p.m. — Bipartisan Policy Center virtual discussion, beginning at 3:30 p.m., on “Linking Climate, Trade, and Geopolitics,” with Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D.; former White House national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster; George David Banks, fellow at BPC; and Xan Fishman, director of energy policy and carbon management at BPC https://bipartisanpolicy.org/event/the-geopolitical
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 17
8:30 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual book discussion on “The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict,” with author Elbridge Colby, former deputy assistant defense secretary for strategy and force development https://www.gmfus.org/event/strategy-denial-american-defense-age-great-power-conflict
10 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Franklin Parker to be assistant secretary of the Navy for manpower and reserve affairs; Agnes Schaefer to be assistant secretary of the Army for manpower and reserve affairs; Ravi Chaudhary to be assistant secretary of the Air Force for energy, installations, and the environment; and Frank Calvelli to be assistant secretary of the air force for space acquisition and integration https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/nominations
10 a.m. — Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual Aerospace Nation discussion: “Spectrum Warfare,” with Maj. Gen. Daniel Simpson, assistant Air Force deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; Air Force Col. William Young, commander of the 350th Spectrum Warfare Wing; former assistant deputy defense undersecretary for airborne reconnaissance Maj. Gen. Ken Israel; and Ken Dworkin, executive adviser for electromagnetic combat at Booz Allen Hamilton https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/aerospace-nation-spectrum-warfare
10 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “The Olympics and Russian Invasion,” with Robert McConnell, co-founder of the U.S.-Ukraine Foundation; Gonul Tol, director of the MEI Turkey Program; Iulia Joja, director of the MEI Frontier Europe Initiative; and retired Air Force Gen. Phillip Breedlove, chair of the MEI Frontier Europe Initiative https://www.mei.edu/events/olympics-and-russian-invasion
10:45 a.m. — American Bar Association’s Standing Committee on Law and National Security virtual National Security Law conference discussion: “The National Security Implications of Domestic Discord: How Our Adversaries Create, Enhance, and Use Our Internal Disagreements Against Us,” with Assistant Attorney General for National Security Matthew Olsen https://web.cvent.com/event
11 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center’s Middle East Program virtual book discussion on “The Unfinished History of the Iran-Iraq War: Faith, Firepower, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards,” with author Annie Tracy Samuel, assistant professor of history at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/documenting-irgc
12 p.m. — Vandenberg Coalition virtual discussion: “The Future of Conservative Foreign Policy,” with former State Department Policy Planning Staff Director Peter Berkowitz, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Washington Post Live event: “World Stage: Crisis in Ukraine,” with William Taylor, Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 18
All Day — The Munich Security Conference begins and goes through Sunday. Feb. 20 at its traditional venue, the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich. Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken attend, along withUkrainian President Vladimir Zelensky also plans to participate. https://securityconference.org/en/news/full/information
8 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Japan Institute of International Affairs virtual 2022 U.S.-Japan Security Seminar, with Japanese Foreign Affairs Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi; Kenichiro Sasae, president of JIIA; Tetsuo Kotani, senior fellow at JIIA; and Bonnie Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project https://www.csis.org/events/2022-us-japan-security-seminar
10:45 a.m. — American Bar Association virtual National Security Law conference with sessions on “The End of Forever War? Now What?” and “The Future of National Security Surveillance” https://web.cvent.com/event
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“There was no fundamental change in the dynamic that has been unfolding now for several weeks … Russia may decide to proceed with military action anyway. Indeed, that is a distinct possibility.”
A senior administration official telling reporters no progress was made in President Joe Biden’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday.
