DNI Dan Coats runs down the biggest threats to the US

Here’s a capsule summary of Coats’ biggest worries:

NORTH KOREA: “North Korea is an increasingly grave national security threat to the United States because of its growing missile and nuclear capabilities combined with the aggressive approach of its leader, Kim Jong Un. Kim is attempting to prove he has the capability to strike the U.S. mainland with a nuclear weapon. He has taken initial steps toward fielding a mobile intercontinental ballistic missile, but it has not yet been flight tested. North Korea updated its constitution in 2012 to declare itself a nuclear power. And its officials consistently state nuclear weapons are the basis for regime survival, suggesting Kim does not intend to negotiate them away.”

SYRIA: “In Syria, we assess that the regime will maintain its momentum on the battlefield provided, as it’s likely, that it maintains support from Iran and Russia. The continuation of the Syrian conflict will worsen already disastrous conditions for Syrians and regional states. Furthermore on April 4th, the Syrian regime used the nerve agent Sarin, against the opposition in Khan Shaykhun, in what is probably the largest chemical attack by the regime since August 2013. The Syrian regime probably used chemical weapons in the response to battlefield losses along the Hama battlefront in late March that threatened key infrastructure. We assess that Syria is probably both willing and able to use CW [chemical warfare] in future attacks, but we do not know if they plan to do so. We are still acquiring and continuing to analyze all intelligence related to the question of whether Russian officials had foreknowledge of the Syrian CW attack on 4 April.”

ISIS: “ISIS is experiencing territorial losses in Iraq and Syria with persistent counter-terrorism operations degrading its strength. However, ISIS will continue to be an active terrorist threat to the United States due to its proven ability to direct and inspire attacks against a wide range of targets around the world. Outside Iraq and Syria, ISIS is seeking to foster interconnectedness among its global branches and networks, align their efforts to its strategy and withstand counter-ISIS efforts. We assess that ISIS maintains the intent and capability to direct, enable, assist and inspire transnational attacks.”

TURKEY: “Tensions in Turkey might escalate rapidly and unpredictably in 2017 as the government’s consolidation of power, crackdowns on dissent and restrictions on free media continue.”

AFGHANISTAN: “The intelligence community assesses that the political and security situation in Afghanistan will almost certainly deteriorate through 2018 even with a modest increase in military assistance by the United States and its partners. This deterioration is [underscored] by its dire economic situation. Afghanistan will struggle to curb its dependence on external support until it contains the insurgency or reaches a peace agreement with the Taliban. Meanwhile, we assess that the Taliban is likely to continue to make gains especially in rural areas. Afghan Security Forces performance will probably worsen due to a combination of Taliban operations, combat casualties, desertion, poor logistic support and weak leadership.”

MATTIS IS BACK: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis in back at the Pentagon today after a week in Europe. His last stop was London, where he attended a conference hosted by British Prime Minister Theresa May on the efforts to prop up the fledgling government in Somalia and defeat the al-Shabab terrorist group that has pledged fealty to al Qaeda. In February, Somalia elected a new president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, who holds U.S. citizenship, and made an appeal in London for an end to the arms embargo against Somalia. Mattis told reporters on his plane flight back to Washington that the U.S. will “probably” provide light arms to the Somali army as it stands up, weaponry he described as “the basic kit that light infantry needs to go into the field.”

“We’ll work on it. I honestly don’t know how — what the specifics are,” Mattis hedged. “I know we’re going to provide a kit to them — may or may not; I’m not sure.” That’s as definitive as it got.

MATTIS TO BRIEF ON ISIS PROGRESS: In his interview with NBC yesterday, President Trump said Mattis will hold a “major” press conference next week to talk about the fight against the Islamic State. NBC’s Lester Holt actually asked Trump about the war in Afghanistan, which is not going well and may soon require an infusion of several thousand U.S. military trainers, but the president quickly pivoted to the war on ISIS, which is going better. “I will say this, most importantly, we are making incredible strides against ISIS and next week Gen. Mattis and my generals are going to be having a major news conference to inform the public and the world how well we’ve done against ISIS,” he said.

ANKARA TENSION: Mattis continued to downplay friction with Turkey as the White House prepares to host Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan next Tuesday. Erdogan is still smarting over what he sees as an act of betrayal, which was Trump’s decision to arm Kurdish YPG fighters that Turkey considers terrorists. “I have no doubt that Turkey and the United States will work this out with due consideration, significant attention paid to Turkey’s security, to NATO’s security, and the continuing campaign against ISIS,” Mattis said aboard his plane yesterday.

Meanwhile, U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish fighters say they expect to push on and capture the Islamic State group’s de facto capital of Raqqa in northern Syria this summer, according to the AP.

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING: The Navy spent the day yesterday trying to figure out what it could say about Trump’s surprise attack on a key feature of the new Gerald R. Ford class of supercarriers. In an interview with Time magazine, the president railed against the newfangled electromagnetic catapults used to launch planes from the carrier deck. The system known as EMALS has had a troubled development, and upon hearing a less-than-glowing progress report, the president told Time he ordered the Navy to ditch the new technology, which he called “digital” and return to the old-school steam catapults. “It sounded bad to me. Digital. They have digital. What is digital? And it’s very complicated, you have to be Albert Einstein to figure it out,” Trump said. “I said what system are you going to be–’Sir, we’re staying with digital.’ I said no you’re not. [You’re] going to goddamned steam, the digital costs hundreds of millions of dollars more money and it’s no good.”

The Navy promised a response, but the problem was, what can you say other than the obvious, namely that any change in design at this point would result in billions of dollars and years more delay for a program that is already billions over budget and years behind schedule. The scramble to come up with a statement that would provide some context, but not seem to be in open defiance, turned into a full-fledged FLAIL-EX, and at the end of the day the Navy decided it was better to say nothing at all. Unsure whether to take the president literally or seriously or neither, the Navy demurred apparently hoping the president won’t raise the subject again.

INFLATING THE F-35 FLEET: In that Time interview, the president, in telling a story about Mattis’ visit to Japan, appeared to dramatically inflate the number of F-35 fighter jets deployed there. Trump bragged that the U.S. flew 35 of the stealthy joint strike fighters unannounced over Tokyo as Mattis was meeting with Japan’s President Shinzo Abe and other top officials in early February. “They flew right over the top of the deal, nobody knew they were coming,” he said, repeatedly calling the high-tech, fifth-generation aircraft’s stealth abilities “pretty cool.”

But a top Marine Corps officially testified to Congress in mid-February that only 10 of the aircraft were deployed to Japan at that time. The F-35 was deployed overseas for the first time in January to a Marine Corps base about 500 miles southwest of Tokyo. It was unclear what the Marine Corps squadron might have been doing flying “low” over Tokyo during Mattis’ visit. The U.S. does have a major Air Force and Navy base just outside the Japanese capital. The Pentagon referred questions Thursday to U.S. Pacific Command, which referred questions back to the Pentagon.

HAPPENING TODAY: Sean Spicer is on the schedule to perform the regular White House briefing duties, which would seem to put to rest the rumor that he might be benched in favor of his deputy Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who has been mixing it up with the press ever since the bombshell firing of Comey Tuesday. Sanders insisted all along she was just filling in as Spicer fulfilled more of his Navy Reserve duty.

MCCABE TESTIMONY: Questions about Trump’s firing of Comey dominated the Senate Intelligence Committee’s hearing Thursday, and prompted senators to ask questions of McCabe, the acting FBI director, about how Comey’s abrupt departure is affecting its investigation into Russian activity in the 2016 elections. “The work of the men and women of the FBI continues despite any changes in circumstance, any decisions,” McCabe said. “Quite simply put sir, you cannot stop the men and women of the FBI from doing the right thing, protecting the American people, and upholding the Constitution.”

Click here for five takeaways from the hearing, compiled by Todd Shepherd.

SO … WHAT’S OUR OFFICIAL LINE AGAIN? After Trump administration officials spent all day Wednesday saying the president made his decision to fire Comey based on the recommendation of his deputy attorney general, Trump rolled a grenade into the storyline. During the NBC interview yesterday, Trump said his mind was already made up before he heard from Rod Rosenstein.

“Regardless of recommendation I was going to fire Comey knowing there was no good time to do it,” Trump said, and then admitted the Russia investigation also figured in his decision. “And in fact when I decided to just do it, I said to myself, I said you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story, it’s an excuse by the Democrats for having lost an election that they should have won.”

Earlier yesterday, acting FBI director McCabe also directly contradicted Trump’s assertion that Comey had lost the confidence of the bureau’s rank and file and the assertion that Comey left the agency in turmoil. “I can tell you also that Director Comey enjoyed broad support within the FBI and still does until this day,” McCabe said.

Asked about that at the White House briefing, Sanders said, “I can speak to my own personal experience. I’ve heard from countless members of the FBI that are grateful and thankful for the president’s decision.” She also had to defend her version of the timeline of events from Wednesday, which the president contradicted less than 24 hours later.

It all led to a pretty rough press briefing for Sanders, as David M. Drucker reports here.

THOSE LYING RUSSIANS: A White House official is accusing Russian officials of lying after a state news agency released photographs of Trump meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Sergey Kislyak. “They tricked us,” an unnamed White House official told CNN. “That’s the problem with the Russians — they lie.”

Only Russian state and official White House photographers were allowed into the meeting, which was closed to the media. But because the White House didn’t release photos until yesterday, the Tass news agency’s photos were the only ones anyone saw. The photos posted showed Trump smiling and shaking hands with the top Russian diplomats.

THEN THE PHOTOG HIT BACK: “Honestly, this is nonsense to me. I am an individual who is not in the public eye and I’ve never commented on my work before but this hysteria around my photoshoot at the White House has forced me to write this post,” Tass photographer Alexandr Scherbak posted to Facebook. “I am urging US journalists not to lose their professional dignity and not to pin the blame on other people for their failure in organizing the photoshoot and the failure to provide access to their media. I have worked as a professional photo correspondent for many years and I am facing such absurd and ludicrous charges for the first time.”

THIS TIME, IT’S PROFESSIONAL: The Navy had another close run-in with Russian aircraft over the Black Sea on Tuesday, but unlike recent aggressive Russian fly-bys near a U.S. destroyer, the Navy claimed it was not dangerous. A Russian Su-27 Flanker fighter jet flew within 20 feet of a P-8 Poseidon, a maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft. The P-8 crew determined that the maneuver was “safe and professional.” The service used the exact opposite language in February when Russian fighters and other aircraft buzzed the USS Porter several times in the Black Sea. In that case, the foreign aircraft were flying with their radio transponders turned off. The Navy did not immediately say whether that was the case during the Tuesday incident.

CYBER PROGRESS? The president signed an executive order Thursday tasking federal agencies including the Defense Department to assess what is needed to safeguard from cyber attacks, but it was just another delay to Sen. John McCain. “The fact is that the challenges we confront are well known and well documented,” the Armed Services Committee chairman said. “We do not need more assessments, reports, and reviews.” McCain had just knocked Trump on Tuesday for blowing its own deadline on unveiling a new cyber strategy within 90 days of inauguration. The executive order signed Thursday requires a series of federal reports to Trump on shoring up cyber security with deadlines of three to six months.

THE RUNDOWN

Military Times: The Pentagon would consider sending more US troops to Somalia

Washington Post: Afghans Debate Possible U.S. Troop Surge

Wall Street Journal: Lithuania Calls For Permanent U.S. Military Presence Amid Russia Tensions

AP: Guam drills indefinitely postponed after craft runs aground

New York Times: How Trump’s N.S.A. came to end a disputed type of surveillance

War on the Rocks: Congress needs to stand up and reclaim its authorities on making war

Defense One: Spy chief searching for cuts across entire U.S. intelligence community

Wall Street Journal: Kurd-led force homes in on ISIS bastion with assent of U.S. and Syria alike

New York Times: Leaders Of South Korea And China Talk, And U.S. Missile Defense Is On The Table

USA Today: Arctic nations meet amid drilling concerns

Foreign Policy: The annexation of Crimea isn’t going as planned

UPI Security News: U.S. Army awards contract for extended range drone

Roll Call: Former Navy pilot challenging New Jersey’s Rodney Frelinghuysen

Defense News: Italy’s anti-establishment Five Star party would scrap F-35 program

Reuters: Hezbollah says future war would be on Israeli territory

AP: New TV ad shows Marines looking for a few good women

Military.com: Marine unit in Norway first to deploy with rifle suppressors

Calendar

FRIDAY | MAY 12

Seward Square. Team America rocketry challenge, rockets on the Hill. aia-aerospace.org

12 p.m. Dirksen G50. Forum on securing smart grid data. lexingtoninstitute.org

3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Cold War series on the Six-Day War: The Breaking of the Middle East wilsoncenter.org

MONDAY | MAY 15

2 p.m. Hyatt Regency Reston. Forum to present, discuss and answer questions related to the tactical wheeled vehicle acquisition program. ndia.org

3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. State manipulation of Islamic rituals and symbols as a means for managing society in Tatarstan, the North Caucasus and Turkmenistan. wilsoncenter.org

4 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. U.S. Cold War diplomacy and the formation of the Third World. wilsoncenter.org

TUESDAY | MAY 16

8 a.m. 300 1st St. SE. A discussion of nuclear deterrents and missile defense realities with Jim Miller, president of Adaptive Strategies. mitchellaerospacepower.org

10 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Ambassador Wendy Sherman, a lead negotiator, discusses the Iran nuclear deal. cato.org

5 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. The European perspective and the case for U.S. engagement in the Balkans. atlanticcouncil.org

7 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. “Eyeless in Gaza” documentary film screening with Bassem Eid. press.org

WEDNESDAY | MAY 17

8 a.m. 300 1st St. SE. A discussion with Gen. Robin Rand, commander of Air Force Global Strike Command, on nuclear deterrent modernization. mitchellaerospacepower.org

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Setting the path for streamlining and improving defense acquisition. armedservices.house.gov

10 a.m. Dirksen 342. Business meeting. hsgac.senate.gov

10 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Is strategic competition in Southern Asia an arms race or modernization? stimson.org

10:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Drivers of insecurity and instability in the Middle East and South Asia. wilsoncenter.org

11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The rise of America’s special operations forces with scholar and author Mark Moyar. heritage.org

1 p.m. 1152 15th St. NW. How the Defense Department can evolve and adapt the force for an uncertain future. cnas.org

2 p.m. Rayburn 2247. Combating homegrown terrorism. oversight.house.gov

3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Military personnel posture for Fiscal Year 2018. armedservices.house.gov

3:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. United States military small arms requirements. armed-services.senate.gov

THURSDAY | MAY 18

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Marshall Plan at 70 with H.E. Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s federal minister for foreign affairs. csis.org

10:30 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. Katherine Blakeley previews the Trump administration’s Fiscal Year 2018 budget request. csbaonline.org

2 p.m. Rayburn 2212. Amphibious warfare in a contested environment. armedservices.house.gov

6:30 p.m. 1250 South Hayes St. Rep. Mac Thornberry, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, receives the Dwight D. Eisenhower Award. ndia.org

FRIDAY | MAY 19

8 a.m. 300 1st St. SE. Maj. Gen. Michael Fortney, vice commander of Air Force Global Strike Command, discusses strategic deterrence. mitchellaerospacepower.org

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Paul A. Rahe, an historian of political philosophy, examines how ancient Sparta stood firm against a great empire. heritage.org

1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Why should the United States care about Ukraine? csis.org