CHINA, ‘UNPRECEDENTED AND GREATEST’ CHALLENGE: Ahead of tomorrow’s visit of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to Washington, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin huddled with their Japanese counterparts at the State Department to hammer out ways to improve the capability of the U.S.-Japan alliance to counter Chinese aggression.
“China presents an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge,” said Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi at a joint news conference following the 2+2 meetings with Blinken and Austin. “Its foreign policy to recreate international order to serve its self-interest is a grave concern for the Japan-U.S. alliance and for the whole of the international community.”
The meeting, and tomorrow’s summit with Kishida and President Joe Biden, comes as Japan has adopted a radical new security strategy that will boost defense spending to 2% of GDP over the next five years and concentrate on developing weapons and tactics that can strike China.
“Based on the new strategy, in order to expeditiously achieve the fundamental reinforcement of Japan’s defense capabilities, I am committed to making maximum efforts to gain new capabilities, including counterstrike capability and to enhanced persistent warfare capability,” said Japan’s Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada.
JAPAN TO RAMP UP DEFENSE CAPABILITIES OVER NEXT FIVE YEARS AS THREATS GATHER
AUSTIN: JAPAN MAKING ‘BOLD DECISIONS’: Austin praised Japan for what he called “bold decisions” in revising its post-World War II defense strategy to build up its offensive capability. “It is a shared commitment to uphold the rules-based international order and to strengthen resilient partnerships around the globe.”
Austin announced that for its part, the U.S. would configure the 12th Marine Regiment based in Okinawa, into a “littoral regiment” that’s “more lethal, more agile, more capable” over the next two years.
“We will equip this new formation with advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, as well as anti-ship and transportation capabilities that are relevant to the current and future threat environments,” said Austin. “It consists of a combat element, which is a battalion-size element, [and] a long-range fires element, which gives us an anti-ship capability.”
JAPAN AND US EQUIP MARINES TO STRIKE CHINESE SHIPS IN A CRISIS
DOUBTS INVASION OF TAIWAN IS ‘IMMINENT’: While the transformation of Japan’s military into a force with more offensive capabilities is aimed at countering a range of Chinese activities, including its expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea, it’s also seen as a deterrent to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s stated desire to join Taiwan with mainland China, by force if necessary.
“I won’t second-guess Mr. Xi, but what I will tell you, what we’re seeing recently is some very provocative behavior on the part of China’s forces and their attempt to reestablish a new normal,” said Austin in response to a reporter’s question about whether he still believes an invasion of the island by China is unlikely in the near term.
“We’ve seen increased aerial activity in the straits. We’ve seen increased surface vessel activity around Taiwan,” said Austin. “And again, we believe that they endeavor to establish a new normal, but whether or not that means that an invasion is imminent, I seriously doubt that.”
THE UK AND JAPAN JUST BOOSTED DETERRENCE OF CHINA
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin are among the speakers scheduled to eulogize the late Defense Secretary Ash Carter in a memorial service set for 11 a.m. at the Washington National Cathedral. Carter died in October of a heart attack at age 68.
Among the many dignitaries expected to attend today’s service is Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough, former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Joseph Dunford, and Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Carter is remembered for, among other things, expanding the roles for women to fight in combat and opening the way for transgendered personnel to serve. Livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch
ALSO TODAY: The U.S.-Japan consultations continue at the Pentagon today when Austin meets with Hamada at 4 p.m.
AEI’S NEW CHINA PLAYBOOK: Just in time for tomorrow’s White House summit with the Japanese president, the American Enterprise Institute is out with its “New China Playbook,” which draws in the expertise of AEI China scholars Dan Blumenthal, Derek Scissors, and Zack Cooper to offer strategies for confronting China for U.S. presidential candidates.
“The Chinese Communist Party has spun a narrative that China is destined for dominance — a narrative that many inside and outside China have accepted uncritically, but AEI scholars’ research on China paints a different picture,” said an introduction to the report.
“At home, China’s economy is slowing and unsteady. Its political system is becoming more fragile, and the CCP is growing less tolerant of dissent. Abroad, international opposition to Beijing’s aggression is growing. America cannot sit back and wait for the CCP to stumble. A weakening China could be less predictable and its leaders more prone to lash out. The US must work with its allies to strengthen its position and guard against an increasingly vulnerable China.”
UKRAINE WAR UPDATE: As Russia continues to claim its first battlefield victory in months in the tiny salt mine town of Soledar, the Pentagon is not conceding what’s left of the battle-scarred town is totally under Russian control.
“I’ve seen some of that reporting, but you know that this has been a very fluid, dynamic environment, dynamic fight in that area. It’s gone back and forth a number of times, and it really is some pretty brutal fighting,” said Austin. “But the Ukrainians have acquitted themselves … in a very impressive fashion as [they] continue to fight a very determined fight.”
In a Facebook post, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed more than 100 Russian troops were killed in a coordinated strike.
“The fighting continues. The Donetsk direction is holding out,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his nightly video address. “And we do everything, without stopping for a single day, to strengthen Ukrainian defense. Our potential is growing. And I thank all our partners who help in this.”
Zelensky thanked Poland for its pledge to send German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine if other countries join the effort. “Western-type tanks are the work of our entire anti-war coalition, and this is a new level of our potential,” Zelensky said.
POLAND TO SEND LEOPARD TANKS TO UKRAINE ON ONE CONDITION
ANOTHER NEW RUSSIAN COMMANDER: Meanwhile, in a sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not satisfied with how the war is going, Gen. Sergey Surovikin, dubbed “General Armageddon” for his brutal tactics in Syria, was unceremoniously sacked by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and replaced by Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian military’s General Staff.
“Gerasimov’s appointment is likely intended to support an intended decisive Russian military effort in 2023, likely resumed Russian offensive operations,” said the Institute for the Study of War in its latest assessment. “Gerasimov’s appointment as theater commander likely advances two Kremlin efforts: an attempt to improve Russian command and control for a decisive military effort in 2023, and a political move to strengthen the Russian MoD against challenges from the Russian millbloggers and siloviki, such as Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin, who have criticized the Kremlin’s conduct of the war.”
RUSSIAN MERCENARY CHIEF CLAIMS VICTORY DESPITE KREMLIN HESITATION
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Japan and US equip Marines to strike Chinese ships in a crisis
Washington Examiner: The UK and Japan just boosted deterrence of China
Washington Examiner: Poland to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine on one condition
Washington Examiner: Putin replaces commander of war in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Putin replaces ‘General Armageddon’ as commander of Russia’s war in Ukraine after just 3 months
Washington Examiner: Russian mercenary chief claims victory despite Kremlin hesitation
Washington Examiner: Putin snaps in recorded meeting with ministers
Washington Examiner: Mayorkas has no plans to resign after Republicans work to impeach him
Washington Examiner: Lindsey Graham calls for special counsel over Biden document revelations
Washington Examiner: GOP bill grants service members discharged over vaccine mandate education benefits
Washington Examiner: Republican senator presses for ‘crucial’ hearing on TikTok influence as Congress weighs ban
Washington Examiner: SEE IT: Crenshaw fires back at detractors after missing vote for Navy SEAL’s funeral
Washington Examiner: Russia to launch rescue mission for stranded astronauts on International Space Station
Breaking Defense: UK and Japan Sign Landmark Defense Pact in Bid to Counter China
Bloomberg: China Calls Military Flights A Response To U.S.-Taiwan ‘Collusion’
AP: In Ukraine, power plant workers fight to save their ‘child’
Defense News: Congress Announces Commission to Review National Defense Strategy
The Hill: Group Of Moderate Democrats Lobbying Against Defense Spending Cuts
Defense Scoop: Navy Pondering Air-Launched Hypersonic Weapons
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Northrop Grumman Reveals It’s Developing the F-35’s New Radar
Defense News: Navy Frustration Building Over Late Weapons, Ship Deliveries
USNI News: SECNAV: New Virginia Attack Boat Contracts Still Stalled Over Missile Insurance Issue
The War Zone: The B-21 Raider Is and Isn’t A ‘B-2 Spirit 2.0’
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Report, Leaders Detail How the US Can Stay Ahead of China in Space Race
Inside Defense: Nine Senior House Lawmakers Back AUKUS Amid Reed’s Industrial Base Concerns
Voice of America: US Announces $9 Million in Military Support to Somalia
19fortyfive.com: Time to Train Ukraine on F-16 Fighter Jets
19fortyfive.com: Su-57 Felon: Putin Won’t Send His Best Fighter to War in Ukraine
New York Times: Iran Gives Death Sentence To Former Defense Official, A Dual U.K. Citizen
19fortyfive.com: NGAD: America’s Next Stealth Fighter Could Be Everything
19fortyfive.com: Zumwalt: The U.S. Navy’s ‘Stealth’ Warships Will Get Hypersonic Missiles
USNI News: SECNAV Del Toro Names Future Destroyer After MoH Recipient Thomas Gunning Kelley
Forbes: Lockheed Martin Protest Of Army Rotorcraft Award Alleges Unequal Treatment, Rampant Subjectivity
Calendar
THURSDAY | JANUARY 12
7:30 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Virginia — Surface Navy Association annual National Symposium, with the theme “Sharpening Our Competitive Edge,” with Joint Chiefs of Staff Vice Chairman Christopher Grady delivering remarks at 7 p.m. https://www.navysnaevents.org/national-symposium
8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Northern Virginia Chapter 2023 NOVA Army IT Day forum, with Army Undersecretary Gabriel Camarillo; Lt. Gen. John Morrison, deputy chief of staff of the Army for command, control, communications, cyber operations, and networks; Dovarius Peoples, chief information officer of the Army Corps of Engineers; Kenneth McNeill, chief information officer for command, control, communications, and computers/cyber, J-6, of the Army National Guard Bureau; Lt. Gen. Maria Gervais, deputy commanding general and chief of staff of the Army Training and Doctrine Command; Margaret Boatner, deputy assistant Army secretary for strategy and acquisition reform; Kimberly Buehler, director of the Army Office of Small Business Programs; Megan Dake, deputy assistant Army secretary for procurement; William Nelson, deputy assistant Army secretary for research and technology; and Maj. Gen. Christopher Eubank, commanding general of the Army Network Enterprise Technology Command https://afceanova.swoogo.com/ArmyITDay2023
6 p.m. — Economic Club of Washington, D.C., virtual discussion with U.K. Ambassador to the United States Karen Pierce https://www.economicclub.org/events/he-dame-karen-pierce
FRIDAY | JANUARY 13
TBA — President Joe Biden hosts Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for meetings at the White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room
12 p.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service discussion: on “Displacement and Disabilities in Ukraine What’s Happened to Children with Disabilities in the Conflict?” with Eric Rosenthal, founder and executive director of Disability Rights International; Elizabeth Ferris, director of ISIM; and Quill Kukla, director of Georgetown’s Disability Studies Program https://www.georgetown.edu/event/displacement-and-disabilities
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 18
6:30 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series” in-person event with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville Register here: https://info.ausa.org/
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Japan reiterated its resolve, under its new strategies, to fundamentally reinforce its defense capabilities, including counterstrike, through a substantial increase of its defense budget. … The United States expressed its determination to optimize its force posture in the Indo-Pacific, including in Japan, by forward-deploying more versatile, resilient, and mobile capabilities.”
” Joint statement issued after meeting of U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee
