‘BIGGEST TANK BATTLE OF THE WAR’: As Russian commanders desperate for a win in Ukraine continue to throw their best troops into the battle for the eastern town of Bakhmut, we’re learning more details about the country’s catastrophic losses suffered last month in the failed siege of the southern town of Vuhledar.
The heavy losses suffered by Russia’s elite 155th Naval Infantry have been previously documented by British intelligence and in tweets from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, but an investigation by the New York Times reveals the extent of the battlefield blunders that reportedly produced what Ukrainian officials say was “the biggest tank battle of the war so far, and a stinging setback for the Russians.”
“Not only had Russia failed to capture Vuhledar, but it also had made the same mistake that cost Moscow hundreds of tanks earlier in the war: advancing columns into ambushes,” the paper reported.
“NYT reported that Russian forces lost at least 130 tanks and armored personnel carriers (APCs) during the three-week offensive, forcing them to resort in the last week to frontal infantry attacks,” noted the Institute for the Study of War in its daily campaign assessment. “Ukrainian troops outlined their tactics to NYT, stating they lured Russian forces into kill zones before immobilizing Russian columns and channeling them into mine-laden road shoulders, before destroying them with artillery — including HIMARS, typically used against static, rear area targets.”
“ISW previously reported on Russian losses near Vuhledar and assessed that they are emblematic of the Russian military‘s inability to learn from its failures,” the ISW said, noting that the New York Times report “supports ISW’s assessment that the continued re-creation and reinforcement of Russian military failures will impede the Russian military’s ability to conduct effective offensive operations.”
MOSCOW ACCUSES UKRAINE OF LAUNCHING STRIKES INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY
‘WINTER IS OVER’: In his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that with the return of warmer temperatures, Ukraine had weathered the winter despite Russia’s unrelenting missile attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure.
“This winter is over. It was very difficult, and every Ukrainian without exaggeration felt this difficulty. But we still managed to provide Ukraine with energy and heat, Zelensky said, promising that Ukraine’s energy companies will continue to rebuild what Russia has destroyed.
“The threat to the energy system remains, but the work for the sake of the energy system is also continued,” he said. “At the energy meeting, we have set the current tasks to ensure that this heating season is completed properly, and we have already started preparing for the next season.”
MUD RETURNS: The warmer weather is also having an effect on the battlefield, notes the British Defense Ministry in its latest Ukraine intelligence update.
“As Ukrainian forces continue their defense of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, rising temperatures are now creating the muddy conditions known in Ukrainian as ‘bezdorizhzhia’, limiting cross country movement,” according to the update, which says daytime soil temperatures have risen and are now largely above freezing.
“It is almost certain that by late-March, [cross country movement] will be at its worst following the final thaw. This will add further friction to ground operations and hamper the off-road movement of heavier armored vehicles, especially over churned-up ground in the Bakhmut sector.”
‘ZERO EVIDENCE’ PUTIN IS READY FOR PEACE TALKS, BLINKEN SAYS
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in New Delhi, India, to participate in the G-20 foreign ministers meeting. The war in Ukraine and rising tensions with China are expected to dominate the meeting of top diplomats from the world’s largest industrialized and developing nations.
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are attending, but at a news conference in Uzbekistan, Blinken said he had no plans to meet with either of them. “Although I suspect that we’ll certainly be in group sessions of one kind or another together.”
Then, apparently, Blinken did bump into Lavrov, and the two talked briefly. According to a U.S. official quoted by the New York Times, “Blinken made three points to Mr. Lavrov: That the U.S. would continue to support Ukraine; that Russia should rejoin the New START nuclear arms control treaty; and that Russia should release Paul Whelan, an imprisoned American citizen.”
Yesterday, Blinken dismissed China’s proposed 12-point plan to end the Ukraine war as a non-starter, despite having some “positive elements.”
“If China was genuinely serious about this, the very first principle it put out – sovereignty – it would have been spending all of the last year working in support of the restoration of Ukraine’s full sovereignty,” Blinken said. “So China can’t have it both ways. It can’t be putting itself out as a force for peace in public while it, one way or another, continues to fuel the flames of this fire that Vladimir Putin started.”
Blinken is scheduled to hold a news conference at 8:35 a.m. EST which will be streamed at https://www.dvidshub.net/webcast/31301
CHINESE LEADER XI HOSTS PUTIN-ALIGNED BELARUSIAN PRESIDENT LUKASHENKO
FDD: ‘TURKEY AFTER ERDOGAN’: The Foundation for Defense of Democracies came out this morning with a report that traces the transformation of NATO ally Turkey from a democracy to an autocracy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The monograph “Turkey after Erdogan,” written by Sinan Ciddi, a nonresident senior fellow at FDD, says over the past two decades “Erdogan has taken control of just about every institution and imposed one-man rule. All decisions, big and small, are taken by him.”
“During the Cold War, shared perceptions of the Soviet threat motivated Turkey, the United States, and the rest of NATO to coalesce to prevent Moscow from gaining a foothold on the alliance’s eastern flank. Today, there is little that binds Turkey and the West,” Ciddi writes.
“Indeed, the Biden administration spent its first year mostly ignoring Turkey, mainly because it saw engagement with an intransigent Erdogan as a waste of time, with few mutual interests to pursue. Then the war in Ukraine altered calculations, ushering in a brief wave of optimism that Turkey, fearful of Russian aggression in the region, would naturally want to collaborate more closely with the United States and NATO to contain Putin’s ambitions.”
“Yet efforts to reset U.S.-Turkish ties have proven fruitless. Both sides appear to be overestimating their respective countries’ importance towards the other,” Ciddi concludes. “The Biden team quietly floated the idea that if Turkey transferred its S-400 missiles to Ukraine, it would mend ties with NATO and generate goodwill with Congress. Congress then might lift CAATSA sanctions and allow the Turkish Air Force to acquire the latest version of F-16 fighter jet as well as upgrade kits for its existing fleet. But the plan fizzled. Erdogan likely concluded that good relations with Moscow have greater value. His successors may face a similar calculus even if they would prefer not to be dependent on Putin.”
INDUSTRY WATCH: The State Department has approved the sale of various missiles to Taiwan for its fleet of F-16 fighter jets. The potential sale is worth $619 million and includes 100 Raytheon AGM-88B anti-radar missiles, 200 AIM-120C AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, along with various launchers and guidance systems, according to a release from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency.
The sale is “consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act and our longstanding One-China policy,” said a State Department official. “The United States makes available to Taiwan defense articles and services necessary to enable it to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability.”
“The United States’ support to Taiwan and steps Taiwan takes to enhance its self-defense capabilities contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region,” the official said.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: ‘Zero evidence’ Putin is ready for peace talks, Blinken says
Washington Examiner: Chinese leader Xi hosts Putin-aligned Belarusian President Lukashenko
Washington Examiner: Moscow accuses Ukraine of launching strikes inside Russian territory
Washington Examiner: US looks to fortify Central Asia amid ‘deep concern’ over Russian aggression
Washington Examiner: Rubio says Senate Intel Committee ‘no closer’ on classified documents oversight after Gang of Eight briefing
Washington Examiner: ‘Havana syndrome’ not caused by energy weapon or foreign adversary, US finds
Washington Examiner: Opinion: US intelligence community has proven it can’t investigate Havana Syndrome, it should let UK and Australia try
Washington Examiner: US ‘very, very’ worried about Iranian nuclear advances
Washington Examiner: Congress told of likely Chinese spy balloon threat as early as 2019
Washington Examiner: Senate passes bill demanding pandemic origin info be made public
Washington Examiner: Air Force personnel removed after failed nuclear inspection
Washington Examiner: US at crossroads in handling of Netanyahu government’s ‘violent’ rhetoric
New York Times: Biden Challenged by Softening Public Support for Arming Ukraine
New York Times: Ukraine Reinforces Embattled Bakhmut, But The Purpose Is Unclear
Wall Street Journal: Putin’s Propaganda Fuels War Support
AP: Zelenskyy didn’t say US troops needed to fight in Ukraine
Politico: Biden admin plans new regulations to protect U.S. infrastructure from cyberattacks
Bloomberg: China’s Imports of Russian Uranium Spark Fear of New Arms Race
AP: Taiwan says 25 Chinese planes, 3 ships sent toward island
19fortyfive.com: Afghanistan: The Avoidable 20-Year Disaster
19fortyfive.com: T-14 Armata ‘Super Tank’ Headed to Ukraine: Reality or Rumor?
19fortyfive.com: Where are Iran’s Kamikaze Drones in Ukraine?
19fortyfive.com: Amazing New Footage Shows Ukraine Hitting Russian Armor with Suicide Drone
Inside Defense: Collaborative B-21 Acquisition Effort Earns Glowing Reviews From Officials
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Separated 610 Airmen For Refusing COVID-19 Vaccine
Stars and Stripes: Air Force Command Climate Investigation Ends With Okinawa Commander’s Removal
Defense One: DARPA Wants a High-Speed, No-Runway Aircraft
Defense News: US Army Chooses Five Companies to Compete for Army’s Future Tactical UAS
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Testing Underway for New B-52 Engines
Air & Space Forces Magazine: US Set Up Afghans for Failure, With a Force Too Complex to Maintain, IG Says
Calendar
THURSDAY | MARCH 2
9 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “A Test of Will: Why Taiwan Matters,” with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) https://www.hudson.org/events/test-will-why-taiwan-matters
10 a.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs conference: “War in Ukraine: Societal Transformation, Peace and Reconciliation, Post-War Reconstruction,” with Borys Gudziak, archbishop of the Ukrainian Catholic Archeparchy of Philadelphia; Cyril Hovorun, associate dean of political ecclesiology at the Sankt Ignatios Theological Academy; Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst; and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine John Tefft https://www.georgetown.edu/event/war-in-ukraine
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute event: “Building a More Resilient Indo-Pacific Security Architecture,” with Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs; Lindsey Ford, deputy assistant secretary of defense for South and Southeast Asia; Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair, Hudson Institute; and Rebeccah Heinrichs, senior fellow and director, Keystone Defense Initiative https://www.eventbrite.com/e/building-a-more-resilient-indo-pacific
10:30 a.m. — Day One of the three-day Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), with Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, speaking at 10:35 a.m.; Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), ranking member on the Senate Commerce Committee, speaking at 12:25 p.m.; Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), speaking at 1:25 p.m.; Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL); speaking at 2:55 p.m.; and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking at 5 p.m. https://www.conservative.org
11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group discussion: “State of the Army,” as part of the “State of Defense” series with Army Lt. Gen. Christopher Donahue, commanding general, XVIII Airborne Corps and Fort Bragg; XVIII ABN Corps Chief Technology Officer Jock Padgett; and Army Deputy Chief Information Officer Maj. Gen. Jan Norris https://d1stateofdefense.com/
11 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Russian Political Stability: Assessing How the Kremlin’s War in Ukraine is Affecting Putin’s Hold on Power,” with Timothy Frye, professor of post-Soviet politics at Columbia University; Marlene Laruelle, director of George Washington University’s Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies; Brian Taylor, director of Syracuse University’s Institute of Global Affairs; Daniel Treisman, professor at the University of California at Los Angeles; and Andrea Kendall-Taylor, director of the CNAS Transatlantic Security Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-russian-political-stability
11 a.m. — National Press Club’s Press Freedom Committee and Journalism Institute virtual discussion: “Living Under Threat: Ukraine, Russian journalists share struggles of wartime reporting,” with Elizaveta Kirpanova, former reporter at Novaya Gazeta; Olga Rudenko, editor in chief of the Kyiv Independent; Anastasia Tishchenko, human rights reporter at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Radio Svoboda; and Jessica Jerreat, editor of Voice of America’s Press Freedom https://www.press.org/events/living-under-threat
11:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual book discussion: Mao’s Army Goes to Sea: The Island Campaigns and the Founding of China’s Navy, with author Toshi Yoshihara, CSBA senior fellow https://csbaonline.org/about/events/book-talk-webinar
12 p.m. —New America virtual discussion: “The Invasion of Iraq – Twenty Years On,” with former U.S. Special Envoy for Syria Joel Rayburn, author of the U.S. Army in the Iraq War; Simona Foltyn, special correspondent at PBS NewsHour; and Abdulrazzaq Al Saiedi, technical expert on Iraq at Physicians for Human Rights https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/events
1 p.m. — Defense One and Babel Street virtual discussion: “Information and Insider Intelligence: Understanding and Responding to Global Chinese Influence,” with retired Army Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency; Mark Quantock, executive vice president of strategic accounts at Babel Street; and McDaniel Wicker, vice president of strategy at Babel Street https://events.govexec.com/babel-street-information-and-insider-intelligence
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Biden-Harris Administration’s National Cybersecurity Strategy,” with Jake Sullivan, assistant to the president for national security affairs; Anne Neuberger, deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technologies; and Acting National Cyber Director Kemba Walden https://www.csis.org/events/biden-harris-administrations-national-cybersecurity-strategy
2 p.m. 2720 34th St. NW — Atlantic Council conference: “Looking north: Security in the Arctic,” with Melissa Dalton, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs: Norwegian Ambassador to the U.S. Anniken Ramberg Krutnes; former Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Defense Ine Eriksen Soreide; and Douglas Jones, deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/2023-looking-north
4 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “No Limits Partnership: The China-Russia Information Nexus,” with Bret Schafer, senior fellow at the Alliance for Securing Democracy https://www.iwp.edu/events/no-limits-partnership
FRIDAY | MARCH 3
11 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Pressing Challenges to U.S. Army Acquisition,” with Douglas Bush, assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics, and technology https://www.csis.org/events/pressing-challenges-us-army-acquisition
12 p.m. — Cato Institute virtual book discussion: “Unreliable Watchdog: The News Media and U.S. Foreign Policy,” with author Ted Galen Carpenter, senior fellow at Cato; George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute; and Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at Cato https://www.cato.org/events/unreliable-watchdog
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Army modernization,” with Gen. James Rainey, commander of Army Futures Command; and Douglas Bush, assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics, and technology https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-fireside-chat
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 8
10 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Select Committee on Intelligence annual hearing: “Worldwide Threats,” with testimony from heads of U.S. intelligence agencies, including Avril Haines, director of national intelligence; William Burns, director, Central Intelligence Agency; Christopher Wray, director, Federal Bureau of Investigation; Gen. Paul Nakasone, director, National Security Agency; and Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/hearings
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army’s “Noon Report” webinar on Army’s efforts to reduce harmful behaviors and prevent suicide with James Helis, director of the Army Resilience Directorate, and Chaplain Maj. Gen. Thomas Solhjem, the Army’s chief of chaplains https://info.ausa.org
THURSDAY | MARCH 9
8 a.m. 2043 Rayburn — Amphibious Warship Industrial Base Coalition “Congressional Forum,” with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI); Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS); Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI); Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA); and Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT) https://amphibiouswarship.org/congressional-forum
THURSDAY | MARCH 23
TBA 2123 Rayburn — House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing on TikTok’s consumer privacy and data security practices, the platforms’ impact on kids, and their relationship with the Chinese Communist Party, with testimony from TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew http://energycommerce.house.gov
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“No one wants peace more urgently than the people of Ukraine. They’re the victims every single day of Russia’s aggression, and if they could have peace yesterday, they’d take it and so would we … If Russia, President Putin, were genuinely prepared to engage in meaningful diplomacy necessary to end the aggression, of course we’d be the first to work on that and to engage. But there is zero evidence of that.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, Wednesday
