‘A DECISIVE MOMENT … IN A DECISIVE DECADE’: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin opened this morning’s meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group with a sober message: As much aid as the West has provided to Ukraine, with Russia regrouping, it’s not enough.
“We need to dig even deeper,” Austin told the gathering of ministers of military officers from some 50 countries at Germany’s Ramstein Air Base “This is a decisive moment for Ukraine in a decisive decade for the world, so make no mistake: We will support Ukraine self-defense for as long as it takes.”
Despite Russia running low and ammunition and suffering significant battle losses, Austin warned Russia is “regrouping, recruiting, and trying to reequip.”
“This is not a moment to slow down,” he said. “The Ukrainian people are watching us, the Kremlin is watching us, and history is watching us. So we won’t let up, and we won’t waver in our determination to help Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s imperial aggression.”
NO TANKS IN LATEST PACKAGE: Austin touted the latest package of U.S. military equipment bound for Ukraine, valued at $2.5 billion, announced last night ahead of today’s meeting in Germany.
“This new security assistance package is worth up to $2.5 billion, and it’s one of the largest yet,” Austin said, adding that it would help meet “Ukraine’s most urgent battlefield needs.”
“Our new package provides even more air defense capabilities to help Ukraine defend its cities and its skies, and that includes NASAMS munitions and eight Avenger Air Defense Systems. This new assistance package also helps meet Ukraine’s urgent need for armor and combat vehicles, so we’re providing 59 more Bradleys, 90 Strykers, 53 MRAPS, and 350 up-armored Humvees.”
But no tanks, as the impasse with Germany continues over its insistence it won’t allow its Leopard tanks to be exported to Ukraine from any country unless the U.S. leads the way by sending M1 Abrams.
US ANNOUNCES MAJOR $2.5 BILLION MILITARY AID PACKAGE TO UKRAINE
ZELENSKY: 100s OF THANK-YOUS ARE NOT 100s OF TANKS’: Underscoring the perilous inflection point as the war approaches the one-year mark, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise virtual appearance to plead with the assembled ministers to stop squabbling and send the heavy weapons Ukraine needs now — including main battle tanks and F-16 fighter jets.
“I’m truly grateful to all of you for the weapons you have provided. Every unit helps to save our people from terror, but time remains a Russian weapon,” Zelensky said, speaking in English. “The war started by Russia does not allow delays, and I can thank you hundreds of times … but hundreds of thank-yous are not hundreds of tanks.”
“Time must become our common weapon,” he said. “You and I have to speed up. We have to do it. … It is in your power to make a Ramstein of tanks, not to bargain about different numbers of tanks but to open a principal supply that will stop Russian evil.”
Zelensky implored the group to make its next gathering “go down in history as Ramstein of F-16s and long-range missiles.”
“All of us can use thousands of words in discussions, but I cannot put words instead of guns that are needed against Russian artillery,” he said. “Russia is concentrating its forces, its last forces, trying to convince everyone that hatred can be stronger than the world. …The Kremlin must lose.”
LONG-RANGE MISSILES WON’T BE INCLUDED IN FORTHCOMING AID PACKAGE
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin didn’t take questions from reporters during the opening session of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group earlier this morning, but Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley will face the media at 10:30 a.m. EST. Livestream at https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
The pair is sure to be asked about whether any progress has been made behind the scenes in convincing Germany to release its hold on the provision of German-made Leopard 2 tanks, of which there are roughly 2,000 spread among NATO allies in Europe.
“[It’s] difficult to know exactly what the Germans are thinking, and I certainly wouldn’t want to speak for them,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on CNN yesterday. “The Germans understand very much what’s at stake in Ukraine, and they have stepped up. They have improved and advanced and contributed more than they were in the early months of the war.”
“And so they’re working through this in a sovereign way, in a way that’s unique to Germany and to their domestic concerns. And we have to respect that. We’re grateful for what they have provided, and we’re grateful that they’re thinking about providing tanks, and we’re just going to have to see where this goes.”
Kirby repeated the administration’s argument that U.S. M1A1 Abrams tanks would be difficult for Ukraine to integrate into their armed forces because of the high maintenance and jet fuel requirements.
“The Abrams tank is a very sophisticated, very capable armored vehicle, armored weapon system, and it does have special requirements,” he said. “It would require some unique supply chain requirements and maintenance and operation requirements that other tanks probably wouldn’t and would be easier for the Ukrainians to learn how to use and to use effectively on the battlefield.”
OPINION: FAILING TO PROVIDE TANKS TO UKRAINE, BIDEN ADMINISTRATION REPEATS DECEPTIVE EXCUSE
POLAND: FORGIVENESS VS PERMISSION: Meanwhile, Poland, which is anxious to offload some of its older German tanks and replace them with American M1 Abrams, is considering flouting German export restrictions and sending a squadron of 14 Leopard tanks to Ukraine without getting prior approval.
“Consent is secondary,” said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki in an interview with Polsat News. “Either we will obtain this consent, or we will do the right thing ourselves.”
SCHOLZ’S HESITANCE ON TANKS COULD MAKE GERMANY ‘SCAPEGOAT’ FOR UKRAINE’S LOSSES
A SHOOTING WAR ON DRUGS: Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) was on Fox yesterday explaining why he and fellow Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) are pushing for the Biden administration to take military action against Mexican drug cartels.
“So, why now?” Crenshaw told Fox News anchor Neil Cavuto. “These Mexican drug cartels have been around for a while. But the difference now is fentanyl. This is not a drug problem. This is not a war on drugs problem. This is a poisoning problem. And they are killing about 80,000 Americans a year. And the Mexican government does very little to thwart this.”
Earlier this month, Crenchsaw and Waltz introduced legislation to create an AUMF, or Authorization for Use of Military Force, to allow the president to go to war with the cartels facilitating the fentanyl crisis at the southern border.
“These people are a lot more like ISIS than they are the mafia. You recently saw a war in the state of Sinaloa after the Mexican government arrested El Chapo’s son. These cartels can actually battle close air support,” said Crenshaw. “They’re battling government helicopters. This looks a lot more like Mogadishu than it does your typical organized crime battle.”
“I think there should be bipartisan efforts in Congress to pass an authorized use of military force to deal with them,” he said. “If anything, that simply gives our president more leverage when trying to get the Mexican government to do its job.”
CRENSHAW AND WALTZ CALL FOR US TO WAGE WAR ON MEXICAN DRUG CARTELS
DRONE ATTACK IN SYRIA: The U.S. Central Command is reporting this morning that U.S. and partner forces came under drone attack at their base near the At Tanf border crossing in southeastern Syria.
No U.S. forces were injured, but two members of the Syrian Free Army partner force required medical treatment.
“This morning, three one-way attack drones attacked the At Tanf Garrison in Syria. Two of the drones were shot down by Coalition Forces while one struck the compound,” said CENTCOM spokesman Col. Joe Buccino in a statement. “Attacks of this kind are unacceptable — they place our troops and our partners at risk and jeopardize the fight against ISIS.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US announces major $2.5 billion military aid package to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: UN nuclear chief warns against complacency about Russian-held plant in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Scholz’s hesitance on tanks could make Germany ‘scapegoat’ for Ukraine’s losses
Washington Examiner: Kremlin says Putin still exists amid Zelensky’s musings on whether he’s ‘still alive’
Washington Examiner: Top Putin ally Medvedev escalates nuclear rhetoric ahead of NATO meeting
Washington Examiner: Long-range missiles won’t be included in forthcoming aid package
Washington Examiner: Coast Guard monitoring suspected Russian intelligence vessel off Hawaiian coast
Washington Examiner: ‘Peace-loving’ Japan to add more offensive firepower
Washington Examiner: Navy relieves two commanding officers, citing loss of confidence
Washington Examiner: Biden’s new border strategy ‘significantly’ deterring illegal migration: Mayorkas
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Failing to provide tanks to Ukraine, Biden administration repeats deceptive excuse
Washington Examiner: Opinion: The enemy is us, again?
Washington Examiner: Opinion: China rightly laments Jacinda Ardern’s resignation
Washington Examiner: Opinion: How Russia’s failure in Ukraine affects China
Washington Post: CIA director holds secret meeting with Zelensky on Russia’s next steps
AP: NATO warns of Russia’s long war in Ukraine, vows to be ready
New York Times: NATO Allies Pledge To Send Major Infusion Of Military Aid To Kyiv
Inside Defense: Pentagon Using ‘AI Tools’ To Predict Future Aid For Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Giving Ukraine Modern NATO Weapons Is No Game Changer
19fortyfive.com: Putin’s Next Big Mistake: Sending T-14 Armata Tanks to Ukraine
New York Times: South Africa to Hold Naval Drill With Russia and China Amid Ukraine War
Nikkei Asia: U.S. Expands Training Of Taiwanese Military With National Guard
AP: GOP action on mail ballot timelines angers military families
Air & Space Forces Magazine: What’s Needed to Put Nukes in S. Korea? It’s Time to Start Planning, New Report Says
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Emphasis on Speed, Commercial Capabilities Highlight a Changing Culture in Space Acquisition
Marine Corps Times: The Corps Is Shelling Out Up To $9K In Bonuses To Keep Recruiters
Space News: With Starshield, SpaceX Readies for Battle
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Daring Hostage Rescue Nets 2 Distinguished Flying Crosses
19fortyfive.com: Should Turkey Get New F-16 Fighter Jets?
19fortyfive.com: The F-15EX Is A Powerhouse (But No F-35 Stealth Fighter)
19fortyfive.com: Russia Just Threatened Nuclear War over Ukraine (Again)
Calendar
FRIDAY | JANUARY 20
10:30 a.m. Ramstein Air Base — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley joint press briefing after Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion on Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise, with author Susan Shirk, chairwoman of the University of California at San Diego’s 21st Century China Center https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-overreach
4:15 p.m. 5801 South Ellis Ave., Chicago, Illinois — University of Chicago Institute of Politics discussion: “The Biden administration’s approach to foreign policy,” with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Institute of Politics founder and director David Axelrod, former senior adviser to President Barack Obama. Livestream at https://www.state.gov/
MONDAY | JANUARY 23
1 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute in-person event: “A Conversation with Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX): China, Russia, and America’s Military Readiness,” with Hal Brands, senior fellow, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation-with-sen-john-cornyn
TUESDAY | JANUARY 24
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies invites you to join our Aerospace Nation event: “The importance of the Air Force’s nuclear enterprise to the nation’s security,” with Lt. Gen. James Dawkins, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, and Maj. Gen. Michael Lutton, commander, 20th Air Force, Air Force Global Strike Command https://afa-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 1
9 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book discussion: No Limits: The Inside Story of China’s War with the West, with author Andrew Small. Register at [email protected]
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 8
6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. — Association of the U.S. Army Coffee Series in-person event featuring Gen. James Rainey, commanding general, U.S. Army Futures Command https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/gen-rainey
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 23
1:30 p.m. — The Cipher Brief virtual briefing: “DIA’s Global Intelligence Picture,” with Trent Maul, director for analysis, Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.thecipherbrief.com
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Ladies and gentlemen, this is a crucial moment. Russia is regrouping, recruiting, and trying to reequip. This is not a moment to slow down. It’s a time to dig deeper. The Ukrainian people are watching us, the Kremlin is watching us, and history is watching us.”
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, speaking at the opening of the eighth meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base, Germany
