‘YOU’LL SEE’ … TIME FRAME WAS ‘WELL WORTH’ THE WAIT: The top general in charge of the joint U.S.-Canadian North American Aerospace Defense Command says when he first saw the Chinese spy balloon approaching Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, he “could not take immediate action,” because it appeared unarmed and “didn’t exhibit hostile intent.” As it passed into Canadian airspace, he had to check with the Canadian government. “I have a boss in Canada as well,” Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck told reporters at a Pentagon briefing Monday.
“It was my assessment that this balloon did not present a physical military threat to North America, this is under my NORAD hat,” VanHerck said. Once the balloon crossed into Montana, one of a handful of states that are home to Minuteman III missile fields, the military took “maximum protective measures,” while “multiple options [were] considered and asked for at multiple levels.”
In the end, “based on safety first, and then effectiveness and being able to take the balloon down within our sovereign airspace and territorial waters,” VanHerck said it was decided that valuable intelligence could be gleaned by tracking the balloon as it was blown across the United States by the jet stream.
“This gave us the opportunity to assess what they were actually doing, what kind of capabilities existed on the balloon, what kind of transmission capabilities existed,” VanHerk said. “I think you’ll see in the future that that time frame was well worth its value.”
JAKE SULLIVAN: US WILL ‘EXPLOIT’ SPY BALLOON WRECKAGE FOR INTELLIGENCE GAINS
BY THE NUMBERS: VanHerck provided some rough estimates of the size of the Chinese balloon and the scale of the recovery effort roughly six miles off the coast of South Carolina in U.S. territorial waters.
- Balloon size: 200 feet tall
- Payload weight: One ton, or more
- Payload dimensions: About the size of a small regional jetliner
- Search area: 10 miles square
- Ocean depth: About 50 feet
- Debris field: 15 football fields by 15 football fields (1,500 meters square)
- Ships involved in recovery effort: Five vessels, including an oceanographic survey ship, three Coast Guard cutters, and at least one unmanned underwater vehicle.
US MILITARY RECOVERED ‘SOME REMNANTS’ OF CHINESE SPY BALLOON
AN EXPLANATION, SORT OF: In explaining how some previous balloon incursions by China went unnoticed and unreported until well after the fact, VanHerck introduced a new idiom into the Washington political vernacular: the “domain awareness gap.”
“As a NORAD commander it’s my responsibility to detect threats to North America. I will tell you that we did not detect those threats. And that’s a domain awareness gap that we have to figure out,” VanHerk said, providing few details about the previous incidents, three during the previous administration and one about a year ago.
The other airspace violations said to be near Hawaii, Guam, Florida, and Texas were “brief” and “nothing like we saw last week,” according to NSC spokesman John Kirby, who added that the White House is offering to brief former Trump administration officials about what subsequent intelligence revealed. “I can’t speak to what awareness there was in the previous administration,” Kirby said. “I can tell you that we discovered these flights after we came into office.”
‘DOMAIN AWARENESS GAP’ EXPLAINS TRUMP-BIDEN DIFFERENCES ON CHINESE SPY BALLOONS: PENTAGON
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HAPPENING TODAY: Coincidentally, the House Armed Services Committee, well before the balloon episode, had scheduled a hearing for 10 a.m. today on “The Pressing Threat of the Chinese Communist Party to U.S. National Defense.” Witnesses include former national security advisor Robert O’Brien; retired Adm. Harry Harris, former U.S. Pacific commander; and Melanie Sisson, foreign policy fellow at the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
HAPPENING TONIGHT: President Joe Biden delivers the annual State of the Union address before a joint session of Congress at 9 p.m. tonight, with Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders giving the Republican response at 10:15 p.m.
Biden hasn’t said if he will address the balloon showdown with China, although he told reporters yesterday he doesn’t believe the imbroglio will weaken U.S.-China relations.
“We’ve made it clear to China what we’re going to do. They understand our position. We’re not going to back off. We did the right thing. And there’s not a question of weakening or strengthening; it’s just the reality,” Biden said as he stepped off Marine One.
Asked why the Chinese would commit “such a brazen act,” Biden chuckled and replied, “They’re the Chinese government.”
BIDEN DEFENDS HANDLING OF SPY BALLOON, SAYS IT HAS NOT AFFECTED RELATIONS WITH CHINA
CHINA: US ‘HYPING UP THE MATTER’: Beijing continues to express displeasure with the shootdown and the refusal of the United States to return any of the recovered wreckage to China.
“The Chinese side has made it clear that this is entirely an unexpected, isolated incident caused by force majeure,” said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning, invoking the legal term for an unexpected and unforeseeable event. “The US side’s deliberate hyping up of the matter and even use of force are unacceptable and irresponsible.”
The Chinese are sticking to their story that the 16-story balloon was “a civilian airship used for meteorological and other research purposes,” which “affected by the Westerlies and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course.”
“I’m not an expert on controlling the balloon,” Mao said. “But to my knowledge, this is not the first time in the world that balloons for scientific research went out of control.”
OPINION: WHAT CHINA’S BALLOON WAS DOING
CALL SIGN SIGNIFICANCE: It was confirmed yesterday that that the F-22 pilot who fired the sidewinder missile that sheared the bottom off the balloon Saturday was given the call sign Frank 01, and the second F-22 had the call sign Luke 01 — which was an homage to Frank Luke, called “the most spectacular air fighter of World War I” by the U.S. Air Force.
Luke “shot down 18 airplanes and balloons in his short military career,” according to the Air Force History and Museums’s webpage. “So how fitting is it that Frank 01 took down this balloon in sovereign air space of the United States of America within our territorial waters?” asked Gen. VanHerck during yesterday’s briefing.
When VanHerck was asked if the F-22 pilot will get a balloon decal for the nose of his plane to mark the air-to-air kill, VanHerck said he would defer to the fighter wing.
Frank Luke died Sept. 29, 1918, after he was hit by gunfire while destroying three enemy observation balloons. He was posthumously awarded the Medal of Honor.
CHINESE SPY BALLOON: HOW INCREASED UFO SIGHTINGS COULD BE LINKED TO AERIAL INFILTRATION
THE PLOT TO SHUT DOWN BALTIMORE: The Justice Department is charging a neo-Nazi leader just released from prison and his girlfriend who he met while incarcerated with conspiring to bring down the Baltimore energy grid by attacking several electrical substations encircling the city.
“A federal criminal complaint was unsealed charging Sarah Beth Clendaniel, 34, of Catonsville, Maryland, and Brandon Clint Russell, 27, of Orlando, Florida, with conspiracy to destroy an energy facility,” according to a Justice Department release.
“In his conversations on encrypted communications applications, Russell posted links to open-source maps of infrastructure, which included the locations of electrical substations, and he described how a small number of attacks on substations could cause a ‘cascading failure.’ Russell also discussed maximizing the impact of the planned attack by hitting multiple substations at one time,” the Justice Department said.
“This alleged planned attack threatened lives and would have left thousands of Marylanders in the cold and dark,” said U.S. Attorney Erek L. Barron.
“Russell is the former head of the Atomwaffen division, a neo-Nazi group that was based in Florida. He did his time for possession of explosives and bomb making materials. He was on supervised release when he allegedly began this plot,” said John Miller, a law enforcement analyst on CNN.
“This has now become a thread of the neo-Nazi national socialist white supremacist conversation in the darkest corner of the web,” said Miller, a CNN contributor. “The theory is, if they can black out enough cities for long enough, that will lead to rioting and looting and then a race war and then the collapse of the government. It is part of the master plan to take over the world. Luckily, they’re not very good at it.”
ELECTRICAL SUBSTATIONS, THE ACHILLES’ HEEL OF AMERICA’S VULNERABLE ENERGY GRID
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Biden defends handling of spy balloon, says it has not affected relations with China
Washington Examiner: ‘Domain awareness gap’ explains Trump-Biden differences on Chinese spy balloons: Pentagon
Washington Examiner: White House prepares to brief key Trump officials on Chinese spy balloon incursions
Washington Examiner: Jake Sullivan: US will ‘exploit’ spy balloon wreckage for intelligence gains
Washington Examiner: US military recovered ‘some remnants’ of Chinese spy balloon
Washington Examiner: ‘He projected weakness’: Steve Daines pans Biden’s ‘indecisive’ leadership over Chinese spy balloon
Washington Examiner: Balloon wars: Trump and Biden officials disagree over previous Chinese intrusions
Washington Examiner: China criticizes US for ‘indiscriminate use of force’ against its spy balloon
Washington Examiner: Chinese spy balloon: How increased UFO sightings could be linked to aerial infiltration
Washington Examiner: Opinion: What China’s balloon was doing
Washington Examiner: Opinion: The Chinese balloon story is even bigger than it seems
Washington Examiner: Chinese spy balloon: Four questions that still need to be answered
Washington Examiner: Biden Senate ally says Ukraine will get F-16s eventually
Washington Examiner: Trump’s last defense secretary says no one held ‘accountable’ for Afghanistan and Iraq wars
Washington Examiner: Trump’s last Pentagon chief pans Biden ‘Keystone Kops’ China balloon response
Washington Examiner: Backseat driving: Obamaworld top officials can’t stop questioning Biden
Washington Examiner: State of the Union 2023: Capitol fencing returns for Biden address
ISNI News: Navy Underwater Robots, Divers Searching For Remains Of Chinese Spy Balloon; Salvage Ship Set To Deploy From Little Creek For Recovery
New York Times: Xi’s Judgment Is Questioned After Balloon
New York Times: Balloons Spotted During Trump Years Were Labeled Unexplained
Reuters: Russian Reinforcements Pour Into Eastern Ukraine, Says Governor
19fortyfive.com: Germany is Giving Ukraine Old Leopard 1 Tanks: What Other Old Armor Could Fight Russia?
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Su-75 Checkmate: The Cheap Stealth Fighter That Will Never Fly?
19fortyfive.com: Did China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter Fly Over Taiwan?
The War Zone: U-2 Spy Planes Snooped on Chinese Surveillance Balloon
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Investigation: Cracked Fan Blade on B-1 Caused Massive Fireball, Sent Shrapnel Flying
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Undisclosed Number of CV-22s Grounded Until Clutch Components Are Replaced
Military.com: The True Origin of the U.S. Marine Corps’ ‘Oorah’ Call
Forbes: Congress Has Been Crystal Clear What Kind Of Amphibious Fleet It Wants. Is The Pentagon Listening?
Calendar
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 7
8 a.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group Zoom conversation with Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), chairman, Senate Armed Services Committee Contact: Thom Shanker at [email protected]
9:30 a.m. — Wilson Center International Change and Security Program virtual discussion: “Water and Conflict: Updates from the Russia-Ukraine War,” with Volodymyr Bilynskyy, deputy chief engineer of Lvivvodokanal, the Lviv City Communal Enterprise Water Utility; Sebastien Truffaut, former UNICEF water, sanitation and hygiene chief in Ukraine; Franklin Broadhurst, water, sanitation and hygiene technical adviser at the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance; Dmytro Vankovych, director of the Lviv City Communal Enterprise Water Utility; and Erika Weinthal, professor of environmental policy at Duke University https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/water
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Pressing Threat of the Chinese Communist Party to U.S. National Defense,” with testimony from: Robert O’Brien, former national security adviser; retired Adm. Harry Harris, former commander, U.S. Pacific Command; and Melanie Sisson, foreign policy fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing: “On The Front Lines of the Border Crisis: A Hearing with Chief Patrol Agents,” with testimony from Gloria Chavez, chief patrol agent for the U.S. Border Patrol Rio Grande Valley Sector; and John Modlin, chief patrol agent for the U.S. Border Patrol Tucson Sector http://oversight.house.gov
10:30 a.m. — Hudson Institute event: “Securing Cyberspace: Hardening America’s Software against Foreign Digital Sabotage, with Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX); Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; Jason Weiss, chief software officer, Conquest Cyber; and Cliff Bean, director of Navy missions, Defense Sector, Peraton https://www.hudson.org/preview-link
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution “The Russia-Ukraine war: Year two and strategic consequences,” with Fiona Hill, senior fellow, Center on the U.S. and Europe, Brookings; Susan Glasser, staff writer, the New Yorker; Constanze Stelzenmuller, Fritz Stern chairwoman on Germany and trans-Atlantic relations, senior fellow, and director, Center on the U.S. and Europe, Brookings; Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow, Center on the U.S. and Europe, Brookings; Matthew Duss, visiting scholar, American Statecraft Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Amy Nelson, fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; Kori Schake, senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy studies, American Enterprise Institute; Michael O’Hanlon, Philip H. Knight chairman in defense and strategy, senior fellow ,and director, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; Bruce Jones, senior fellow and director, Project on International Order and Strategy, Brookings; Patricia Kim, fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies and John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings; Natan Sachs, senior fellow and director, Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings; and Tara Varma, visiting fellow, Center on the U.S. and Europe, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-ukraine-year-two
9 p.m. House Chamber, U.S. Capitol — President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress.
10:15 p.m. — Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, (R-AK) delivers the Republican response to the president’s State of the Union address.
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 8
6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army Coffee Series in-person event featuring Gen. James Rainey, commanding general, U.S. Army Futures Command https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/gen-rainey
8 a.m. 801 Mount Vernon Pl. NW— ESRI Federal GIS (Geographic Information Systems) Conference with Vice Adm. Frank Whitworth, director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, https://www.esri.com/en-us/about/events/federal-gis-conference/overview
9:30 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “Winning the Peace After the War: Supporting Ukrainian Democracy,” with Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Anthony Banbury, president and CEO of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems; and Peter Erben, global principal adviser and senior country director in Ukraine at the International Foundation for Electoral Systems https://www.usip.org/events/winning-peace-after-war
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Countering Russian threats to global financial security,” with Ukrainian Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko; and John Cusack, founder of the Global Coalition to Fight Financial Crime https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/countering-russian-threats
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “State of the Defense Industrial Base,” with Eric Fanning, president and CEO, Aerospace Industries Association; David Norquist, president and CEO, National Defense Industrial Association; and Matthew Paxton, president, Shipbuilders Council of America https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/full-committee
3 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: ‘The Role of Special Operations Forces in Great Power Competition,” with Seth Jones, senior vice president, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Retired Army Lt. Gen. Charles Cleveland, former commander, U.S. Army Special Operations Command; and David Ucko, professor and department chair, College of International Security Affairs, National Defense University https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
12:30 p.m. — Business Council for International Understanding discussion: “Progress in the War in Ukraine and issues related to getting defense equipment to Ukraine,” with Ukrainian Air Force Maj. Gen. Borys Krementskyi, Ukrainian defense attache to the U.S. http://www.bciu.org/events/upcoming-events
1:30 p.m. — Joint press conference with visiting NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken https://www.nato.int
2:30 p.m. — Joint press conference with visiting NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin https://www.nato.int
5 p.m. 1521 16th St. N.W. — Institute of World Politics discussion: “The Coming Hypersonic Revolution and its Impact on International Security,” with Bill Bruner, co-founder and CEO of New Frontier Aerospace https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-coming-hypersonic-revolution
9 p.m. 40 Presidential Dr., Simi Valley, Calif. — Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute book discussion: Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love, with author/former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo https://www.reaganfoundation.org/programs-events
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 9
8:30 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Future of War: Is the Pentagon Prepared to Deter and Defeat America’s Adversaries?” with Chris Brose, author; Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior director, Center on Cyber Technology and Innovation, Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Peter Singer, strategist, New America and Managing Partner of Useful Fiction LLC https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/citi-hearing-future-war
8:45 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “U.S. Extended Deterrence,” with Gary Samore, director of Brandeis University’s Center for Middle East Studies https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable-64-us-extended-deterrence
10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. — Hudson Institute discussion: “Building a More Resilient Indo-Pacific Security Architecture,” with Assistant Defense Secretary for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner; and Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for South and Southeast Asia Lindsey Ford https://www.hudson.org/events/building-more-resilient-indo-pacific-security-architecture
10:30 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Evaluating U.S.-China Policy in the Era of Strategic Competition,” with testimony from Wendy Sherman, deputy secretary of state https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/evaluating-us-china-policy
10:30 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Georgian Defense Minister Juansher Burchuladze at the Pentagon.
11:30 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “China and Strategic Stability in Space: Pathways to Peace in an Era of U.S. – China Strategic Competition,” with Associate NASA Administrator for Technology, Policy, and Strategy Bhavya Lal; Bruce MacDonald, adjunct professor in international studies at Johns Hopkins University; Victoria Samson, Washington office director at the Secure World Foundation; Scott Pace, director of George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute; and Carla Freeman, USIP senior expert https://www.usip.org/events/china-and-strategic-stability-space
1:30 p.m. — Wilson Center Polar Institute virtual discussion: “Deterring Russia at Sea in the High North,” with Navy Adm. Daryl Caudle, commander of Fleet Forces Command; Navy Vice Adm. Daniel Dwyer, commander of the Second Fleet and Joint Forces Command-Norfolk; Assistant Chief of the Naval Staff for Policy Rear Adm. Anthony Rimington; retired Navy Adm. James Foggo, dean of the Center for Maritime Strategy; Chris Kofron, director for Russia at the National Security Council; and former USAID Administrator Mark Green, president, director and CEO of the Wilson Center https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/deterring-russia-sea-high-north
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 13
TBA Brussels, Belgium — Press Conference by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of a two-day meeting of defense ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Frank Luke; Medal of Honor winner, World War I for his activities that he conducted against observation balloons. So how fitting is it that Frank 01 took down this balloon in sovereign air space of the United States of America within our territorial waters?”
Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command, explaining the call sign given to the F-22 pilot who shot down the Chinese spy balloon Saturday
