IS US NUCLEAR UMBRELLA ENOUGH? The White House and State Department confirmed yesterday that in the wake of North Korea’s increasingly bellicose rhetoric and growing nuclear arsenal, the United States and South Korea are developing plans to deter and, if necessary, respond to any use of nuclear weapons by Kim Jong Un.
The news surfaced in an interview South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol gave to the Chosun Ilbo newspaper, in which he said the U.S. and South Korean military were discussing contingencies in the event North Korea conducts a seventh nuclear test, long expected to happen at any time.
In the interview published Monday, Yoon suggested that America’s “nuclear umbrella” or “extended deterrence” was no longer enough to reassure the South Korean public at a time when some in his ruling party are calling for the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons to the South.
The report said the two allies are working on plans for “joint planning and training,” including the possible round-the-clock deployment of U.S. strategic assets, such as nuclear aircraft carriers or nuclear submarines, to the waters off Korea to beef up deterrence.
But today Yoon was more circumspect, saying, “There are diverse opinions across our nation and in the United States regarding extended deterrence, so I am listening to them carefully and looking carefully at various possibilities,” according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency.
NO EXERCISES, JUST PLANS: The White House was quick to tamp down the suggestion that the U.S. and the South were discussing joint nuclear drills after President Joe Biden rejected the idea with a single “No” in answer to a reporter’s question.
“We’re not discussing joint nuclear exercises. The ROK [Republic of Korea] is a non-nuclear weapons state,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, who described the talks as an outgrowth of Biden and Yoon’s meeting in Cambodia late last year.
“President Biden and President Yoon tasked their teams to plan for an effective, coordinated response to a range of scenarios, including nuclear use by North Korea,” said Jean-Pierre at yesterday’s White House briefing. “And so that is what the teams are working on and what President Yoon was clearly referencing when he made his comments.”
US AND SOUTH KOREA PLANNING FOR ‘COORDINATED RESPONSE’ TO NORTH KOREA
N. KOREA SEEKS ‘EXPONENTIAL’ INCREASE OF ITS NUCLEAR ARSENAL: The increased urgency comes as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un marked the new year with the test of what Pyongyang described as a 600 mm “super-large multiple launch rocket system,” which could be armed with nuclear warheads.
Kim inspected 30 of the weapons systems on New Year’s Day and called it an “eye-opening success” with the capability “to conduct a surprise and precision launch of multiple rockets,” targeting all of South Korea.
“It has South Korea as a whole within the range of strike and is capable of carrying tactical nuclear warhead. It will discharge in future the combat mission of overpowering the enemy as a core, offensive weapon of our armed forces,” Kim boasted, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency.
A separate KCNA report noted that at a meeting of North Korea’s Workers’ Party Central Committee, Kim’s strategy for the new year called for “the mass-production of tactical nuclear weapons” and “an exponential increase of the country’s nuclear arsenal.”
PEACE TALKS DEAD: U.S. officials have essentially given up on trying to revive the diplomatic efforts to convince Kim to abandon his nuclear ambitions while insisting they are prepared to resume talks at any time with no preconditions.
“We have made repeatedly clear that we harbor no hostile intent towards the DPRK [North Korea]. We are prepared to engage in constructive, good-faith, principled dialogue towards what is our ultimate goal — that is the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price, noting that North Korea has “repeatedly refused to engage” in any dialog since the failed 2019 summit between former President Donald Trump and Kim in Hanoi.
“The DPRK regime has repeatedly appeared to embrace provocation over dialogue and diplomacy,” said Price. “Until and unless the DPRK’s approach changes, our approach will continue apace. … Our commitment to the security of the ROK and Japan as our treaty allies is ironclad.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken; Jennifer Klein, assistant to the president and director of the White House Gender Policy Council; and U.S. Agency for International Development Administrator Samantha Power launch the first “U.S. Strategy on Global Women’s Economic Security,” which, according to the State Department, seeks to “streamline and mobilize U.S. foreign policy, international programming and development assistance, trade policy and promotion, private sector development, and partnerships to ensure women’s full and equitable participation in the global economy.” Livestream at 11 a.m. https://www.state.gov
ALSO TODAY: Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) resumes his quest to become House speaker in the face of a revolt by 20 members of his party intent on denying him his longtime ambition. The split in the Republican Party has created a dynamic akin to Great Britain’s parliamentary system, where the selection of a prime minister often requires multiple rounds of voting and deals to put together a coalition government.
McCarthy has been forced to agree to a provision in which any five members of the House can call for a “snap” election to remove him from the post, which is much like a “no confidence” vote in the British Parliament that can oust a prime minister.
McCarthy has vowed not to drop out, no matter how many ballots it takes, while his detractors also say they will not give in after denying McCarthy the necessary 218 votes on three straight ballots. The reality is the House is actually divided into three parties, not two, at the moment. The “Only Kevin” Republicans, the “Never Kevin” Republicans, and the Democrats, who are sitting on the sidelines watching the chaos.
No one knows what will happen today when voting resumes. But until a speaker is chosen, the House cannot conduct any business, including the swearing-in of members.
‘EVERY HOUSE A FORTRESS’: In a video that surfaced over the past few days, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian Wagner Group mercenary organization, is seen describing the tenacious defense put up by Ukrainian forces in the Donbas city of Bakhmut, where for weeks Russia has been attempting and failing to break through Ukrainian lines while suffering heavy casualties.
In the video, Prigozhin blames the slow progress on the fact that each house in Bakhmut is a “fortress,” that Ukrainians have defensive lines every 10 meters, and that Russian forces must clear building by building, with inadequate equipment and a shortage of ammunition.
“Prigozhin is likely setting information conditions to blame Wagner Group’s failure to take Bakhmut on the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Russian industrial base. Wagner Group soldiers told Prigozhin that they were unable to break through Ukrainian lines in Bakhmut due to insufficient armored vehicles, ammunition, and 100mm shell supplies during a likely scripted segment in the clip,” said the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War in its latest assessment. “This statement seeks to absolve the Wagner Group and Prigozhin of personal responsibility by attributing their failure to capture Bakhmut to the larger Russian resource allocation problems that Russian and Ukrainian sources have been increasingly discussing since late December.”
SYRIA STRIKE: The U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces came under rocket attack in northern Syria this morning but that there were no casualties.
“Two rockets targeted coalition forces at Mission Support Site Conoco, northeast Syria, today at approximately 9 a.m. local time in Syria (1 a.m. Eastern),” said Col. Joe Buccino, a CENTCOM spokesman. “The attack resulted in no injuries or damage to the base or coalition property.”
U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces traced the rocket fire to its origin site and found a third unfired rocket but not the forces that fired it, according to a CENTCOM statement.
“Attacks of this kind place coalition forces and the civilian populace at risk and undermine the hard-earned stability and security of Syria and the region,” said Buccino.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US and South Korea planning for ‘coordinated response’ to North Korea
Washington Examiner: Senior Army officer who sparred with Tucker Carlson honorably discharged
Washington Examiner: Russia launches more than 80 Iranian drones at Ukraine to start 2023
Washington Examiner: Russian mercenary chief complains it takes ‘weeks to capture a house’ in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: China condemns ‘unacceptable’ travel restrictions amid COVID data suspicions
Washington Examiner: SEE IT: Two charged in Christmas substation attacks that left thousands without power
New York Times: As 1-Year Mark Nears, Putin Prepares Russians For Long Fight.
Washington Post: Russian commanders blamed for heavy losses in New Year’s Day strike
Wall Street Journal: Ukraine Has Digitized Its Fighting Forces on a Shoestring
Stars and Stripes: Push Underway In NATO To Raise Defense Spending By Members
AP: Russia, shaken by Ukrainian strike, could step up drone use
AP: Drone advances in Ukraine could bring dawn of killer robots
Navy Times: New In 2023: Here Comes The First-Ever Surface Drone Fleet
Breaking Defense: After A Year In Limbo, Appropriators Appear To Finally Sink Large Unmanned Sub Program
CNN: China’s New Supercarrier Will Soon Undergo First Sea Trials, Officer Says
Washington Times: Beijing Spies Stole Bomb Secrets On Every U.S. Warhead To Build Nuclear Forces
CNN: Videos Show Both Sides Of U.S.-China Aerial Encounter – And Highlight The Risks Involved
AL Monitor: U.S. Top Middle East Commander Tests New Model Of Deterring Iran
USA Today: Culture Wars: House Republicans Attack Defense Department For ‘Woke’ Social Policies
Washington Post: Milley Told Jan. 6 Panel He’s Become A Political ‘Lightning Rod’
Washington Post: Jan. 6 committee yet again debunks Trump claim of 10,000 troops
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Deploys Latest E-11A BACN to Saudi Arabia
Air & Space Forces Magazine: $30 Billion F-35 Deal Will See Prices Rise, Deliveries Dip
Air & Space Forces Magazine: RC-135 Takes Evasive Maneuvers after ‘Unsafe’ Chinese Fighter Intercept
Dayton Daily News: GE Aerospace Gets Hefty Air Force Contract for Engine Work
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Major and LTC Boards Will Now See When Candidates Have Advanced Degrees
Military.com: ‘Chaos’ for Service Members and Spouses After Pentagon Misses Deadline for Parental Leave Policy
19fortyfive.com: Wagner Group Won’t Save Putin from Failure in Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Putin Is in Trouble: Ukraine’s HIMARS Missiles Look Unstoppable
19fortyfive.com: Does China Want to Dominate Asia or the World?
The Cipher Brief: Global Leaders to Watch in 2023
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The Cipher Brief: The Story of America’s Most Dangerous Female Spy
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 4
2 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion on the fentanyl crisis, border security, and Title 42, with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
THURSDAY | JANUARY 5
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Unanswered Questions about North Korean Leadership,” with Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center; Soo Kim, policy analyst at the RAND Corporation; John Delury, professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University’s Graduate School of International Studies; and Sue Mi Terry, director of the CSIS’s Asia Program https://www.csis.org/events/unanswered-questions-about-north-korean-leadership
FRIDAY | JANUARY 6
12 p.m. Union Square, 3rd St. SW — Progressive Democrats of America, the Not Above the Law Coalition, and the Declaration for American Democracy hold an “Our Freedoms, Our Vote” Jan. 6 rally “to remember what happened two years ago,” with Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD); Martin Luther King III, activist and son of the late Martin Luther King Jr.; and Andrea Waters King, president of the Drum Major Institute and wife of Martin Luther King III https://www.mobilize.us/jan6hearings/event/545269/
MONDAY | JANUARY 8
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies report launch: “The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan,” with co-authors Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham, along with a panel discussion with retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula; Becca Wasser, senior fellow, Center for a New American Security; and William Murray, professor, U.S. Naval War College https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch
FRIDAY | JANUARY 13
TBA — President Joe Biden hosts Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for meetings at the White House https://www.whitehouse.gov
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“In [Bakhmut], every house has become a fortress. Our guys sometimes fight for more than a day over one house. Sometimes they fight for weeks over one house. And behind this house, there is still a new line of defense, and not one. And how many such lines of defense are there in [Bakhmut]? Five hundred would probably not be an exaggeration.”
Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, in a video, attempting to justify the lack of progress of his mercenaries in Bakhmut, Ukraine, in the face of fierce Ukrainian defenses.
