‘A NEW ERA IN TRILATERAL COOPERATION’: When President Joe Biden hosts Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol at Camp David Friday, it will mark the first stand-alone summit ever between the three countries, and what Secretary of State Antony Blinken called “a new era in trilateral cooperation.”
Japan and South Korea have had testy relations for years, tracing back to Japan’s colonization of the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to 1945. But threats from China, North Korea, and even Russia have prompted the leaders of the two Asian countries to strengthen their marriage of convenience.
“This summit comes at a moment when our region and the world are being tested by geopolitical competition, by climate crisis, by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, by nuclear provocations,” Blinken said at yesterday’s State Department briefing. “Our heightened engagement is part of our broader efforts to revitalize, to strengthen, to knit together our alliances and partnerships.”
The three countries will announce plans for deeper military cooperation on ballistic missile defenses and technology development, according to administration officials who briefed reporters.
‘THIS REALLY IS A HISTORIC EVENT’: The fact the summit is happening is due in large part to efforts at fence-mending by South Korean President Yoon, who said this week the meeting “set a new milestone in trilateral cooperation.”
“You have to give the South Korean president a lot of credit. He came into office at a time when South Korea-Japan relations were about as bad as they’ve ever been,” said Victor Cha, a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“This consolidation of the alliance relationships is happening now because the external environment is just so uncertain and unstable,” Cha said at a CSIS forum this week. “There is nothing like an actual real war, even though it’s in another part of the world, to completely change the way or affect the way leaders think about their security.”
“This really is a historic event,” said Christopher Johnstone, CSIS Japan chair at the same event. “These leaders have met several times. I think this will be the fifth time, but it’s the first dedicated trilateral. All the others have been on the margins of some other multilateral meeting.”
“It was Yoon’s gesture back in March to resolve this historical dispute over forced labor that was the critical breakthrough,” Johnstone said. “Then a sequence of events sort of really built momentum in that bilateral relationship. Yoon visited Tokyo in March. Kishida reciprocated with a visit to Seoul in May. He invited Yoon to Hiroshima as one of the guest countries to the G-7. They visited together a memorial to Korean victims of the atomic bombing. All this helped, I think, really turn the corner and put a real foundation under the bilateral relationship.”
CONCRETE MEASURES: The summit has a wide focus, and its agenda extends beyond just military cooperation. “I don’t want to get ahead of what will happen on Friday, but I think you’ll see some very concrete measures that we’re taking to enhance our capacity to provide for our security as three countries and also more broadly security in the Indo-Pacific region,” Blinken said. The discussions, he said, will address “security questions, including economic security questions, but also including things like coordination on development aid, on humanitarian assistance, on shaping the use of emerging technologies, on greater people-to-people exchanges.”
“Economic security is another important key pillar of the trilateral partnership,” said Ellen Kim, CSIS Korea chair. “The U.S., South Korea, and Japan are all big players in the semiconductor industry.”
The U.S. and Japan dominate the manufacture of semiconductor equipment, accounting for almost 70% of the global market, while South Korea is a key producer of the memory chips.
“U.S. export controls have basically created a big dilemma for South Korea. Samsung and SK Hynix need U.S. semiconductor manufacturing equipment to produce their chips, but they are also heavily reliant on the Chinese market,” Kim said. “There’s a lot of work to be done on semiconductor cooperation. South Korea and the United States are not there yet to resolve their differences on export controls.”
US DOWNPLAYS CHINA TENSIONS AHEAD OF ‘FORCE MULTIPLIER’ SUMMIT WITH JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Jordanian King Abdullah II.
UKRAINE TROOPS FACE 3 RINGS OF HELL: Ukraine’s counteroffensive advanced on three fronts Tuesday, though recording only modest gains against Russian defensive lines, the Institute for the Study of War reported in its latest assessment.
“The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut, Melitopol, and Berdyansk,” the assessment said. “Russian and Ukrainian reporting published on August 15 suggests that Ukrainian forces have committed additional counteroffensive brigades to the western Zaporizhia oblast.”
“Ukrainian Colonel Petro Chernyk stated that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is advancing slowly in southern Ukraine because Ukrainian forces must overcome a three-echeloned Russian defensive line,” the ISW reported. “Chernyk stated that the Russian line of defense includes a first line of minefields stretching several kilometers wide; a second line with artillery, equipment, and personnel concentrations; and a third line of rear positions meant to preserve resources. Chernyk noted that Ukrainian counterbattery measures are especially important in order to prevent Russian artillery from targeting Ukrainian mine-clearing equipment.”
“Chernyk’s statements are in line with ISW’s previous assessments that Russia’s doctrinally sound elastic defense is slowing Ukrainian forces’ advances in southern Ukraine,” the assessment added.
RUSSIA MAKING ITS OWN ‘IRANIAN’ DRONES: Russia has been using Iranian-made Shahed drones to make up for its shortage of standoff bombs and missiles, but British intelligence has concluded Russia is now able to manufacture its own Shahed-style drones, based on the Iranian design.
“Russia has almost certainly started to deploy domestically produced one way attack Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (OWA-UAVs) based on Iranian Shahed designs,” the British Defense Ministry posted on X. “Indigenous manufacturing will likely allow Russia to establish a more reliable supply of OWA-UAVs … Russia likely aims for self-sufficiency in OWA-UAVs in the coming months. However, in the interim, Russia remains reliant on components and whole weapons from Iran, primarily shipped via the Caspian Sea.”
“The performance of these weapons has been variable and Ukraine has proved effective in neutralizing the majority of incoming OWA-UAVs,” the post noted.
PYONGYANG SAYS US SOLDIER FLED ‘RACIAL DISCRIMINATION’: In its first public confirmation that it is holding U.S. Army Pvt. Travis King, North Korea said King bolted across the Demilitarized Zone on July 18 because he was disillusioned with America.
“Travis King admitted that he illegally intruded into the territory of the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea],” according to a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.
“During the investigation, he confessed that he decided to come over to the DPRK, opposed to inhuman maltreatment and racial discrimination in the US army. Saying he was disillusioned at the unequal American society, he expressed his will to seek political asylum either in the DPRK or in third country,” the statement said, according to an English translation on KCNAwatch.org.
NORTH KOREA CONFIRMS US ARMY PRIVATE IS IN COUNTRY AND SHARES ALLEGED REASON HE ENTERED
The Rundown
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Washington Examiner: Russia hikes interest rate as hackers mock Putin over slide against US dollar
Washington Examiner: Putin revives Stalin-style hunts for expatriate Russians: ‘Political murders happen here’
Washington Examiner: US downplays China tensions ahead of ‘force multiplier’ summit with Japan, South Korea
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Washington Examiner: Democrat RFK Jr. tells Tucker Carlson he converted to GOP views following border visit
Washington Examiner: Republicans still searching for candidates to challenge Sen. Tammy Baldwin
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Ramaswamy’s foreign policy fumble shows why he will never be ready for prime time
CNN: The Moment Ukraine Used An Experimental Drone To Attack A Russian Bridge
Washington Post: Chinese Spies Who Read State Dept. Email Also Hacked GOP Congressman
CNN: China’s Defense Minister Warns Against ‘Playing With Fire’ On Taiwan During Russia Meeting
The Drive: China Is Building A Runway On Its Closest Island Outpost To Vietnam
Reuters: Chinese Military Delegation Joins U.S.-Hosted Defence Conference In Fiji
Defense News: Japanese F-35s to Make Inaugural Deployment to Australia
Politico: ‘It’s Like a Bad Monster Movie’: US Officials Who Helped Train Nigerien Troops Reel from Coup
AP: Marines Joining Maui Recovery Effort, More Active Duty May Follow
Defense One: The Pentagon May Be Too Busy to Fix Its Half-Century-Old Budget Process, Reform Group Says
Defense News: Capitol Hill Commission Urges Overhaul Of Pentagon Budget Planning
Axios: How the Air Force Is Helping Clear the Path for Electric Air Taxis
Breaking Defense: Italian Team Wins Space Force’s First On-Orbit Hack-A-Sat Contest
Space News: US Deactivates GSSAP Surveillance Satellite, Two New Ones in the Works
Air & Space Forces Magazine: How Do These 60-Year-Old USAF Jets Age So Gracefully?
Air & Space Forces Magazine: A New Bonus Program Targets Pilots Willing to Re-Up Their Service Commitment Early
Air & Space Forces Magazine: How the Nominations Freeze Affects the Highest Levels of USAF, USSF Leadership
Breaking Defense: Coalition Ops: Northern Edge Highlights Culture, Language Challenges
DefenseScoop: Department of the Air Force Names Venice Goodwine CIO
Long War Journal: Two years after U.S. withdrawal, the Taliban enjoys an iron-fisted grip on Afghanistan
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: The Hard Reality: Ukraine’s Last-Gasp Offensive Has Failed
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 16
10 a.m. 300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute discussion: “The future of U.S.-Mexico relations,” with former Mexican Secretary of Economy Ildefonso Guajardo https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/conversation-mexico
12 p.m. — RAND Corporation virtual discussion: “Addressing Violent Extremism in the United States,” with Ryan Andrew Brown, RAND senior behavioral/social scientist; and Todd Helmus, RAND senior behavioral scientist https://www.rand.org/events/2023/08/policy-lab
1 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “The U.S.-Japan-Republic of Korea trilateral summit,” with Kurt Campbell, deputy assistant to the president and coordinator for the Indo-Pacific on the National Security Council; U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel; and U.S. Ambassador to Korea Philip Goldberg https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-us-japan-rok
3 p.m. — Air and Space Forces Association and the U.S. Air Force virtual discussion: “The next phase of the Blended Wing Body aircraft prototype project,” with Ravi Chaudhary, assistant Air Force secretary for energy, installations, and environment; Maj. Gen. Albert Miller, director of strategy, plans, requirements, and programs at the Air Mobility Command Headquarters; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Bruce “Orville” Wright, president and CEO of the Air & Space Forces Association https://afa-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
5 p.m. — U.S. Inventor online discussion: “The Threat of China and the Importance of Our Intellectual Property System in Dealing With That Threat,” with retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Robert Spalding, founder and CEO of SEMPRE https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register
THURSDAY | AUGUST 17
8 a.m. 4301 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — Intelligence and National Security Alliance discussion: “Open Source: Art of the Possible for National Security,” with Chris Rasmussen, founder and program manager at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s Tearline Project; Mason Clark, senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War; Matthew Daggett, technical staff member at the MIT Lincoln Laboratory’s Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Systems group; Sam Gordy, president of Janes U.S.; and retired Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, CEO of Ashley Global Leadership and Security and former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
2 p.m. — The Hill virtual discussion: “We Are Not Alone; UFOs & National Security,” with Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN).; Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL); Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL); and Greg Eghigian, professor of history and bioethics at Pennsylvania State University https://thehill.com/events/4141299-we-are-not-alone-ufos-national-security
FRIDAY | AUGUST 18
TBA Camp David, Maryland — Trilateral summit between President Joe Biden; Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida; and South Korean President President Yoon Suk Yeol
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 30
10:30 a.m. — 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy and Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology in-person and virtual event: “How much money for defense is enough?” with Michael O’Hanlon, director, Talbott Center; Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute; and Travis Sharp, senior fellow and director of defense budget studies, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch-how-much-money-for-defense
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“There is nothing like an actual real war, even though it’s in another part of the world, to completely change the way or affect the way leaders think about their security.”
Victor Cha, Korea chair and senior vice president for Asia, Center for Strategic and International Studies, on why Japan and South Korea are seeking closer ties to each other and the U.S.
