As Russian advance stalls, debate over Bakhmut’s strategic value heats up

Short on manpower and ammunition, the seven-month Russian assault on the town seems to be petering out, or “culminating,” in the military jargon of the Institute for the Study of War.

“Ukrainian military sources have noted a markedly decreased number of attacks in and around Bakhmut, particularly over the last few days,” the ISW said in its latest assessment. “Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has recently emphasized the toll that a reported lack of ammunition is having on Wagner’s ability to pursue offensives on Bakhmut.”

“It seems that the Wagner offensive itself will not be sufficient to seize Bakhmut,” the ISW concluded. “Russian forces are not pursuing active or successful offensive operations elsewhere in theater, and as the pace of operations slows along critical sectors of the front, Ukrainian forces likely have an increased opportunity to regain the initiative.”

A DEATH TRAP: Ukrainian fighters on the front lines describe horrific battlefield slaughters as convicts and conscript soldiers are forced at gunpoint to charge directly into machine gun fire, unable to retreat lest they be shot by their own side. “They see how their fellows fall down and they continue running,” one Ukrainian soldier told CNN. “They have no choice to return to the position because they will be killed.”

“The battle of Bakhmut continues but Ukraine is fighting with valor. With robust defenses, Ukraine has fixed the Russian forces at that city and they’re exacting very heavy costs on the Wagner Group and the Russian regular military,” said Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley at a Pentagon news conference yesterday. “Wave after wave of Russian soldiers are thrown into the chaos of war, absent any sort of synchronized coordination and direction. Russia continues to pay severely in terms of lives and military equipment for its continued war of choice.”

“Russians are making small tactical advances but at great cost,” Milley said. “Elsewhere, the front line remains relatively static, with significant exchanges of artillery but no significant maneuver gains by either side.”

HUDSON’S VIEW: In its latest assessment, the Hudson Institute is less sanguine about Ukraine’s prospects for holding Bakhmut, given it will inevitably have to shift its focus to the south and an effort to break through Russian forces to cut off their land bridge to Crimea.

“At the time of writing, Russian advances continue slowly but steadily, enjoying a favorable battlefield geometry,” said Hudson senior fellow Can Kasapoglu. “Unless the Ukrainian General Staff radically alters the situation, it is a matter of when, not if, Russian forces will completely capture their objectives.”

“Once the Ukrainian military fully operates its incoming supply of Western main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, it would need every single battalion for a large-scale breakthrough in the south,” Kasapoglu wrote. “Previous editions of this report have communicated our findings, concluding that a prolonged Ukrainian defensive in Bakhmut has started to cause burdensome attrition that could potentially jeopardize Ukraine’s long-awaited spring offensive.”

“President Zelensky is fighting this fight, and he will make the calls on what’s important and what’s not important to his forces, and whether he needs to reposition or remain in Bakhmut,” said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. “If he does make a call to reposition at some point in time, it doesn’t mean that the war is lost. It may mean, and probably will mean, that he is positioning himself to maintain advantage.”

“Whether or not he stays there or how long they stay there, that’s President Zelensky’s call and not anybody else’s,” Austin said. “And again, our goal is to make sure that we’re supporting him in whatever battlefield decision he’s going to make.”

LLOYD AUSTIN CONVENES TENTH MEETING OF DEFENSE LEADERS TO HELP UKRAINE

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HAPPENING TODAY: The Senate Armed Services Committee will hear from two four-star combatant commanders this morning, Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, commander, U.S. Central Command; and Marine Corps Gen. Michael Langley, commander, U.S. Africa Command. Testimony begins at 9:30 a.m. in the Dirksen Senate Office Building.

COLLISION VIDEO RELEASED: The U.S. European Command has released an edited 43-second video clip showing a Russian Su-27 making a close pass over a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper surveillance drone Tuesday and dumping jet fuel on the unmanned aircraft. During a second pass by one of the two Su-27s, the drone signal is lost momentarily, but when it returns a minute later, a bent propeller blade can be seen, indicating the Russian jet clipped the drone, disabling it.

The U.S. still hasn’t concluded whether the Russian pilot intended to make contact with the drone or just came too close due to poor piloting skills.

“You look at the video of what happened, and you essentially see a Russian pilot careening in what appears to be an uncontrolled manner, hitting the drone and forcing us to take it down,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price on CNN last night. “This was unsafe, it was unprofessional. It was also tinged with a great deal of incompetence.”

“Whether the pilot in this case actually intended to bring the drone down, I don’t know that we can say for certain at this point. But it really doesn’t matter. What matters is what actually happened,” Price said. “The broader point is, again, that this is not the first incident of its kind. Yes, this is the first one where our forces have come into contact with one another, but our aircraft, our drones have been harassed by Russian pilots almost consistently.”

“We have made very clear to Moscow in no uncertain terms from the State Department, from the Defense Department, in military channels as well, that this is unacceptable, and it’s dangerous,” he added.

WATCH: MILITARY RELEASES FOOTAGE SHOWING RUSSIAN FIGHTER JET FORCING DOWN US DRONE OVER BLACK SEA

AUSTIN TO SHOIGU: US WILL FLY ANYWHERE LAW ALLOWS: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was able to talk directly to his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley made a similar call to his counterpart, Chief of Russian General Staff Gen. Valery Gerasimov.

No details were released on Milley’s talk with Gerasimov, but Austin said he told Shoigu that the United States “will fly and operate wherever international law allows.”

“We take any potential for escalation very seriously and that’s why I believe it’s important to keep the lines of communication open. I think it’s really key that we’re able to pick up the phone and engage each other. And I think that that will help to prevent miscalculations going forward.”

LLOYD AUSTIN AND RUSSIAN COUNTERPART SPEAK AFTER FIGHTER JET HITS US DRONE

DOWNED DRONE LIKELY UNRECOVERABLE: What’s left of the MQ-9 is likely almost a mile deep under the Black Sea, beyond the reach of the Russians or anyone else.

“We know where it landed in the Black Sea. It’s probably about maybe 4,000 or 5,000 feet of water, something like that. So, any recovery operation is very difficult at that depth by anyone,” said Milley at yesterday’s briefing.

“It probably broke up. There’s probably not a lot to recover, frankly,” he said. “We did take mitigating measures, so we are quite confident that whatever was of value is no longer of value.”

The comment indicated that the U.S. was able to wipe the contents of the remotely piloted plane’s computer memory before guiding it into a controlled crash into the water.

US IS ‘VERY COMFORTABLE’ RUSSIA CAN’T ‘EXPLOIT’ DRONE IN COLLISION IF RECOVERED

WICKER: BIDEN NAVY BUDGET ‘SINKING FUTURE FLEET’: Roger Wicker (R-MS), ranking member on the Senate Armed Services Committee, has taken a closer look at the Navy’s proposed fiscal year 2024 budget released Monday, and he’s not liking what he’s seeing.

“No matter the favored phrase of the day – ‘divest to invest,’ ‘strategic pause,’ ‘capability over capacity,’ — the president’s defense budget is, in practice, sinking our future fleet,” Wicker said in a press release calling for a “monumental investment in American shipbuilding.”

“A strong naval footing begins with readiness today and a plan to grow our battle force and command the seas tomorrow. President Biden is risking our maritime security by declining to work toward either of these goals,” he said. “Even as the Chinese Communist Party makes its bid for rapid control of the Pacific, this White House is failing to offer a blueprint to secure our interests.”

Among the proposals, Wicker objects to:

• A “flat” 2.5% increase in shipbuilding funds, which is less than half the current inflation rate.
• A plan to retire 11 ships, including 2 recently-built Littoral Combat Ships, while only requesting the construction of 9 new battle force ships. “This action would decrease the number of active ships and take the Navy further away from the statutory 355-ship goal,” he said.
• An expected “strategic pause” in buying the modernized LPD-17 Flight II amphibious warships that Wicker said “would bring the amphibious fleet below the statutory requirement of 31 ships,” and disregard the Marine Corps commandants stated requirements.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: WATCH: Military releases footage showing Russian fighter jet forcing down US drone over Black Sea

Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin and Russian counterpart speak after fighter jet hits US drone

Washington Examiner: US is ‘very comfortable’ Russia can’t ‘exploit’ drone in collision if recovered

Washington Examiner: Russian jet collision prompts congressional calls for Black Sea policy

Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin convenes tenth meeting of defense leaders to help Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Senator proposes sanctions on Russian patriarch amid war in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Pence refutes DeSantis on Ukraine: ‘Unprovoked war of aggression’

Washington Examiner: WATCH: Kamala Harris boasts record of meeting world leaders in rebuke of DeSantis’s Ukraine comments

Washington Examiner: International Criminal Court preparing investigation into Russia for war crimes

Washington Examiner: Space Force recruitment doing ‘very well’ despite other branches’ struggles

Washington Examiner: Pentagon officials claim alien mothership could send ships to Earth in draft research paper

Washington Examiner: Biden touts jobs from Saudi Arabia’s Boeing buys after promising ‘reset’

Washington Examiner: Biden border chief in hot seat over whether US-Mexico boundary is secure

Washington Examiner: Service member found dead in Pentagon parking lot

AP: Ukraine vows to hold on to Bakhmut despite Russian onslaught

Reuters: Turkey plans to ratify Finland’s NATO bid ahead of May polls -sources

AP: Why US troops remain in Iraq 20 years after ‘shock and awe’

19fortyfive.com: Bakhmut: The Battle That Decides the Ukraine War?

Politico: ‘Ukraine Doesn’t Have Any Time To Waste’: U.S. Races To Prepare Kyiv For Spring Offensive

New York Times: Russia’s Offensive In Ukraine Could Include Cyberattacks

Breaking Defense: Both Citing Cost, Leaders Of Navy, Marines Dig In On Amphib Ship Fight

Defense News: How The U.S. Plans To Expand Its Submarine Industrial Base For AUKUS

Wall Street Journal: U.S. Wants Sale of China Owners’ TikTok Stakes

Reuters: Taiwan Warns Honduras Against ‘Poison’ Of Aid From China

19fortyfive.com: Preventive War or Forever War? The Confusing Legacy of the Iraq War

19fortyfive.com: NGAD Is Born: The Air Force’s 6th Gen Stealth Fighter is Already Flying

19fortyfive.com: White House Reveals Details on Plan to Give Australia Nuclear-Powered Submarines

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Brown: Air Force Subtracting A-10 from ‘4+1’ Fighter Plan

Air & Space Forces Magazine: How Do You Train for a War in Space? Saltzman Says USSF Is Working on the Details

Breaking Defense: Project Blackjack: DARPA’s Test of Satellite Laser Links Delayed

Forbes: Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall Makes The Right Call On F-35 Fighter Propulsion

Calendar

THURSDAY | MARCH 16

7 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr. — National Defense Industrial Association: “Senior Defense Leaders Forum” to review the FY2024 Defense Department budget with Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Plans and Programs Lt. Gen. Richard Moore; Deputy Assistant Navy Secretary for Budget Rear Adm. John Gumbleton; and Assistant Deputy Marine Corps Commandant for Programs and Resources Brig. Gen. Daniel Shipley https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2023-3-16-ndia-dc-chapter

9 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Japan’s New National Security Strategy: Northeast Asia,” with Madoka Fukuda, professor at Hosei University; and Yasuyo Sakata, professor of international relations at Kanda University of International Studies https://www.stimson.org/event/the-northeast-asia-security-environment

9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “Posture of U.S. Central Command and U.S. Africa Command,” with testimony from Army Gen. Michael Kurilla, commander, U.S. Central Command; and Marine Gen. Michael Langley, commander, U.S. Africa Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies and Defense Acquisition Program Administration Republic of Korea-U.S. Defense Industrial Cooperation for a Resilient Global Supply Chain Conference, with Michael Vaccaro, principal deputy assistant defense secretary for industrial base policy; and Pat Mason, deputy assistant Army secretary for defense exports and cooperation https://www.csis.org/events/dapa-csis-conference-2023-rok-us

11 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group Defense One discussion: “State of the Marines,” with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; and Brig. Gen. Joseph Clearfield, deputy commander of Marine Corps Forces Pacific https://d1stateofdefense.com/

11 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion on a new report: “C4ISR (Command and Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance): Assessment and Recommendations After Madrid,” with retired Army Maj. Gen. Gordon Davis; retired Marine Corps Gen. James Cartwright, board director of the Atlantic Council; John Baylouny, executive vice president, chief operating officer, Leonardo DRS; and Sherill Lingel, director, Force Modernization and Employment Program, RAND Project Air Force https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/report-launch-the-future-of-nato-c4isr

12 p.m. — McCain Institute virtual book discussion with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch on Lessons From the Edge: A Memoir https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events/authors

12 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “Making AUKUS (Australia-United Kingdom-U.S.) Work for the U.S.-Australia Alliance,” with Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security; and William Greenwalt, nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/03/16/making-aukus-work

1 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Cato Institute discussion: “The Iraq War at 20 Years” https://www.cato.org/events/iraq-war-20-years

2 p.m. Senate Swamp, U.S. Capitol — Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) hold a news conference on bipartisan legislation that would repeal the 1991 and 2002 Authorizations for Use of Military Force, formally ending the Gulf and Iraq wars https://www.facebook.com/SenatorKaine

FRIDAY | MARCH 17

10 a.m. — Wilson Center’s Asia Program virtual discussion: “Taiwan and Its Partners Beyond the Silicon Shield,” with Shelley Rigger, professor at Davidson College; and Dan Blumenthal, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/taiwan

11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Attracting and Scaling Private Capital in Support of National Security,” with Jason Rathje, director of the Defense Department’s Office of Strategic Capital https://www.csis.org/events/dods-office-strategic-capital

12 p.m. 112 Elden St., Herndon, Va. — Clare Boothe Luce Center for Conservative Women discussion: “The Communist China Threat,” with Victoria Coates, senior research fellow for international affairs and national security at the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Freedom. RSVP: Lindsey Cruz, [email protected]

1 p.m. 1957 E Street NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: “Nuclear Security: Our View from Vienna,” with Laura Holgate, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Vienna Office https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/nuclear_security

MONDAY | MARCH 20 

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” webinar with Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander, Pacific Air Forces, air component commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Register: https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/march-20

TUESDAY | MARCH 21

9 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg presents his annual report for 2022, at NATO Headquarters https://www.nato.int

MONDAY | MARCH 27

10 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave, — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research in-person event: “The Iraq War Series: Operation Iraqi Freedom,” with Stephen Hadley, former national security adviser; Robert Kagan, senior fellow, Brookings Institution; Melvyn Leffler, professor of history emeritus, University of Virginia; Danielle Pletka, distinguished senior Fellow, AEI; and Gary Schmitt, senior fellow, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/the-iraq-war-series-operation-iraqi-freedom