IN DONBAS, ECHOS OF VERDUN: After weeks of stalemate in a bloody triangle of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, Russia’s Wagner Group claims to be making headway in its attempt to encircle Bakhmut with its army of mercenaries and prisoner conscripts. But the artillery duel has been so deadly that it has prompted comparisons to the infamous “meat grinder” of World War I, the 1916 Battle of Verdun, in which German forces waged a brutal, 10-month campaign of attrition with the intent of “bleeding the French white.”
A senior U.S. military official called the fighting in a triangle roughly bounded by Bakhmut, Soledar, and Chasiv Yar “really severe and savage,” with both sides trading small patches of territory and fields and rolling hills littered with corpses of advancing Russian soldiers, many serving in penal units, sent in waves to pave the way for Wagner mercenaries.
“If you go back in Russian history, you’ll see that there are plenty of examples of the Russians trading individuals for bullets, and we’re seeing that in this area,” the official told reporters at a Pentagon briefing. “The prisoners from Wagner Group … once those folks go up and, you know, essentially take the brunt of whatever Ukrainian response there is, then you have better-trained forces that move behind them to claim the ground that these individuals have walked over.”
“Combat footage widely circulated on social media on January 9 shows Wagner Group fighters engaging in fierce small arms combat near the city administration building in central Soledar,” said the Institute for the Study of War in its latest campaign update. “Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to use reports of Wagner Group success in Soledar to bolster the Wagner Group’s reputation as an effective fighting force … Prigozhin emphasized on January 9 that ‘exclusively’ Wagner Group units are taking ground in Soledar.”
FORMER US AMBASSADOR SAYS PUTIN’S WAR WON’T END UNTIL HE’S CONVINCED OF DEFEAT
SOLEDAR MOSTLY UNDER RUSSIAN CONTROL: In its daily Twitter update, the British Defense Ministry said it appears Russian and Wagner forces have made “tactical advances” over the past four days and “are likely in control” of most of the salt mine town of Soledar, which is about six miles north of Bakhmut.
“Part of the fighting has focused on entrances to the 200 km-long disused salt mine tunnels which run underneath the district. Both sides are likely concerned that they could be used for infiltration behind their lines,” the intelligence assessment said. “Despite the increased pressure on Bakhmut, Russia is unlikely to envelop the town imminently because Ukrainian forces maintain stable defensive lines in depth and control over supply routes.”
RUSSIA CLAIMS FATAL RETALIATORY STRIKE UKRAINE DENIES HAPPENED
‘THIS IS WHAT MADNESS LOOKS LIKE’: In his nightly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the heavy fighting in the Donbas and promised to rush new arms and ammunition from the West to the front as soon as possible.
“We do everything to ensure that there is as little time as possible between the agreement on additional support and the application of this support on the battlefield,” Zelensky said. “Although the invaders have now concentrated their greatest efforts on Soledar, the result of this difficult and long battle will be the liberation of our entire Donbas.”
Zelensky suggested that even if Russia, through brute force, takes Soledar, it will be a Pyrrhic victory at best. “What did Russia want to gain there? Everything is completely destroyed. There is almost no life left. And thousands of their people were lost. The whole land near Soledar is covered with the corpses of the occupiers and scars from the strikes,” he said. “This is what madness looks like.”
UKRAINIAN CITY BAKHMUT IS ‘HOLDING OUT AGAINST ALL ODDS,’ ZELENSKY SAYS
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Surface Navy Association’s three-day National Symposium gets underway in Crystal City in Arlington, Virginia, with scheduled speakers including Adm. Michael Gilday, chief of naval operations; Vice Adm. Roy Kitchener, commander, Naval Surface Forces; and Vice Adm. Charles Bradford Cooper, commander, Fifth Fleet. Full schedule of events can be found here.
NEW RULE IGNITES HOUSE GOP DEFENSE HAWKS: In their first act after selecting Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker of the House, Republicans, with only a single defection, passed new operating rules for the 118th Congress that promise more transparency and greater participation of rank-and-file lawmakers in the crafting and passage of legislation.
“Lawmaking should be open to all members, not just a select few, so that the best ideas win. That’s what this rules package reflects,” McCarthy said in a statement after the largely party-line vote of 220 to 213. “Rules that empower members to debate and legislate are replacing rules that silenced their voice and centralized power. Rules that increase transparency are replacing rules that kept lawmaking hidden behind closed doors.”
Democrats immediately called foul, asking what private concessions McCarthy granted the hard-right wing of his party to win the speaker’s gavel. “There is a secret three page addendum to the House Rules that secured the support of the wackiest members of the House and the American public deserves to know what’s in it,” tweeted Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI).
The lone Republican holdout was Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas, who said on CBS on Sunday that he was concerned about efforts by the extreme faction of his party to cut the defense budget, specifically U.S. aid to Ukraine.
“I’m going to visit Taiwan here in a couple of weeks. How am I going to look at our allies in the eye and say, ‘I need you to increase your defense budget,’ but yet America is going to decrease ours?” Gonzales asked on Face the Nation.
“Anyone suggesting this package cuts defense spending is ignoring the math: there are not 218 members that support defense cuts and any budget resolution that tries to do so will fail,” said centrist Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) in a statement after voting for the new rules. “This is a positive step that will increase transparency and give every member a stronger voice in the legislative process.”
RULES PACKAGE CHOCK FULL OF MCCARTHY CONCESSIONS NARROWLY PASSES HOUSE
CANADA TO BUY F-35s TRUDEAU ONCE TRASHED: The government of Justin Trudeau, the Canadian prime minister who seven years ago trashed the Lockheed Martin F-35 as an “overpriced nightmare” and vowed never to buy it, has come around and now plans to replace its aging fleet of F-18s with America’s premier stealth fighter.
“Today, I announced that Canada is acquiring a new fleet of 88 F-35 fighter jets. This project is estimated at $19 billion — making it the largest investment in our @RCAF_ARC in three decades,” announced Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand in a tweet. “This project will ensure that our aviators have the tools they need to defend Canada.”
Under the deal, Canada will acquire 88 F-35As, to be delivered in 2026. “Canada is confident that the F-35 represents the best fighter jet for our country at the best price for Canadians,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement. ”During the finalization phase of the procurement process, the US government and Lockheed Martin with Pratt & Whitney successfully demonstrated that an agreement to purchase the F-35 fighter jets meets Canada’s requirements and outcomes, including value for money, flexibility, protection against risks, performance and delivery assurances.”
INDUSTRY WATCH: Northrop Grumman has announced it will assume production of rocket motors for the U.S. Army’s Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System, the ballistic rocket that Ukraine has been using to devastating effect in the Lockheed Martin HIMARS launchers supplied by the United States.
We are proactively investing in production facilities and technologies in support of producing even higher rates of rocket motors faster and more affordably to meet our customer’s anticipated demand,” said Jim Kalberer, Northrop Grumman’s vice president of missile products.
The company said it recently delivered its 15,000th rocket motor and 20,000th warhead to Lockheed Martin for final assembly.
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian city Bakhmut is ‘holding out against all odds,’ Zelensky says
Washington Examiner: Russia claims fatal retaliatory strike Ukraine denies happened
Washington Examiner: Former US ambassador says Putin’s war won’t end until he’s convinced of defeat
Washington Examiner: Iran could be ‘contributing’ to war crimes in Ukraine, White House alleges
Washington Examiner: Former ambassador identifies big obstacle to freeing Americans in Russia
Washington Examiner: Classified documents from Biden vice presidency surface at think tank, sparking inquiry: Report
Washington Examiner: Republicans fight over defense spending cuts ahead of House rules package vote
Washington Examiner: Mark Green beats Dan Crenshaw in race to chair Homeland Security Committee
Washington Examiner: Biden faces pressure from the Left on Bolsonaro
Washington Examiner: US ‘standing by’ to assist Brazilian investigation of Bolsonaro role in riot
Washington Examiner: 9/11 trial delayed again as Biden administration pushes for plea deal with terrorists
Washington Examiner: Russian troll farms didn’t sway voters in 2016 election
New York Times: Kyiv Commits To Tough Fight Over Bakhmut
Business Insider: Russia’s Forces In Ukraine Will Be ‘Burned Through And Exhausted’ By The End Of Winter, Ex-NATO Commander Predicts
Politico: Pentagon Weighs Sending Stryker Combat Vehicles To Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Can Ukraine Crush the Wagner Group Once and For All?
19fortyfive.com: Russia Wants to Buy Back Its Old Aircraft Carrier from China
19fortyfive.com: Putin Will Flip Out: Ukraine Captured from Russia Intact S-300
19fortyfive.com: Putin is Terrified of Losing Su-57 Stealth Fighters in Ukraine
Wall Street Journal: Russian Ship’s Secretive South Africa Stop Prompts U.S. Questions
Reuters: China ‘Wolf Warrior’ Diplomatic Spokesperson Zhao Moves To New Role
Bloomberg: Taiwan-Invasion War Game by US Think Tank Sees China Quickly Flopping
Reuters: U.S. Wants To Deploy Missile-Armed Marines Along Japan’s Okinawa Islands -Yomiuri
Voice of America: China Snubs U.S. Military Outreach Ahead of Expected Blinken Visit
CNN: Pentagon Prepares For Series Of GOP-Led Investigations
Defense News: U.S. Navy Considers Cold War-Era Squadrons To Boost Readiness
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Aims to Get More eVTOL Platforms into Testing, Exercises in 2023
Air & Space Forces Magazine: No More Tape Test: Air Force Announces New Body Composition Program
Washington Post: This Simple Tweak Could Slash Carbon Emissions From U.S. Military Vehicles
Calendar
TUESDAY | JANUARY 10
8 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy, Arlington, Virginia — Surface Navy Association annual National Symposium with the theme “Sharpening Our Competitive Edge,” with Adm. Michael Gilday, chief of naval operations, delivering keynote address at 4 p.m. https://www.navysnaevents.org/national-symposium
9 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion with Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu https://www.gmfus.org/event/conversation-moldovan
11 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion, beginning at 11 a.m., with former Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, former commander of the U.S. European Command and former NATO supreme allied commander Europe https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/aerospace-nation
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Enabling an Economic Transformation of Ukraine: Recovery, Reconstruction, and Modernization,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, vice president of Russia and Europe at the U.S. Institute of Peace; former Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky; Sergiy Tsivkach, CEO of UkraineInvest; Michael Polsky, founder and CEO of Invenergy; and former U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman, vice chairman and president of strategic growth at Mastercard https://www.csis.org/events/enabling-economic-transformation
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 11
7:30 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Virginia — Surface Navy Association annual National Symposium with the theme “Sharpening Our Competitive Edge,” with Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT) and Rep. Robert Wittman (R-VA) delivering remarks on the “View from Capitol Hill” and Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro giving a keynote address at 11 a.m. https://www.navysnaevents.org/national-symposium
8 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The Case for Ukraine Retaking Crimea,” with retired Army Gen. Wes Clark, former NATO supreme allied commander Europe; Leonid Gozman, Russian opposition politician and commentator; Debra Cagan, energy fellow at the Transatlantic Leadership Network; former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-case-for-retaking-crimea
9:30 a.m. — Stimson Center event: “Voices from Japan: Japan’s Security Policy Transformation,” with Itsunori Onodera, the 12th, 17th, and 18th minister of defense of Japan https://www.stimson.org/event/voices-from-japan
9:45 a.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance virtual discussion on “ONI’s assessments of foreign naval capabilities and its application of naval intelligence to global geopolitical challenges,” with Rear Adm. Michael Studeman, commander, Office of Naval Intelligence, and Suzanne Wilson Heckenberg, INSA president https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event
4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology conversation: “Reflections on U.S. defense policy from Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA),” with Michael O’Hanlon, Philip H. Knight chair in defense and strategy, senior fellow and director, Strobe Talbott Center; and Melanie Sisson, fellow, Strobe Talbott Center https://www.brookings.edu/events/reflections
5 p.m. 2201 C St. NW — Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, and Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada joint media availability following a meeting of the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee http://www.state.gov
THURSDAY | JANUARY 12
7:30 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Virginia — Surface Navy Association annual National Symposium, with the theme “Sharpening Our Competitive Edge,” with Joint Chiefs of Staff Vice Chairman Christopher Grady delivering remarks at 7 p.m. https://www.navysnaevents.org/national-symposium
8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Northern Virginia Chapter 2023 NOVA Army IT Day forum, with Army Undersecretary Gabriel Camarillo; Lt. Gen. John Morrison, deputy chief of staff of the Army for command, control, communications, cyber operations, and networks; Dovarius Peoples, chief information officer of the Army Corps of Engineers; Kenneth McNeill, chief information officer for command, control, communications, and computers/cyber, J-6, of the Army National Guard Bureau; Lt. Gen. Maria Gervais, deputy commanding general and chief of staff of the Army Training and Doctrine Command; Margaret Boatner, deputy assistant Army secretary for strategy and acquisition reform; Kimberly Buehler, director of the Army Office of Small Business Programs; Megan Dake, deputy assistant Army secretary for procurement; William Nelson, deputy assistant Army secretary for research and technology; and Maj. Gen. Christopher Eubank, commanding general of the Army Network Enterprise Technology Command https://afceanova.swoogo.com/ArmyITDay2023
6 p.m. — Economic Club of Washington, D.C., virtual discussion with U.K. Ambassador to the United States Karen Pierce https://www.economicclub.org/events/he-dame-karen-pierce
FRIDAY | JANUARY 13
TBA — President Joe Biden hosts Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for meetings at the White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room
12 p.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service discussion: on “Displacement and Disabilities in Ukraine What’s Happened to Children with Disabilities in the Conflict?” with Eric Rosenthal, founder and executive director of Disability Rights International; Elizabeth Ferris, director of ISIM; and Quill Kukla, director of Georgetown’s Disability Studies Program https://www.georgetown.edu/event/displacement-and-disabilities
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Tanks. This is what we think about every day. Every minute.”
Tweet from the account of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry
