Trump laying groundwork for full US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan before leaving office

‘THIS WAR ISN’T OVER’: At the same time, Miller admitted that al Qaeda has not yet been vanquished but was vague about whether defeating al Qaeda in Afghanistan would require a continued troop presence in the country, as advocated by President-elect Joe Biden.

“This war isn’t over,” Miller wrote. “We are on the verge of defeating al Qaeda and its associates, but we must avoid our past strategic error of failing to see the fight through to the finish.”

ESPER OPPOSED HASTY WITHDRAWAL: By firing Mark Esper last week and installing retired Army Col. Douglas Macgregor as chief adviser to Miller, Trump swept away the civilian leaders who would resist a withdrawal before the Taliban makes good on its pledge to reduce violence and negotiate in good faith with the U.S.-backed Afghan government.

According to the Washington Post, Esper sent a classified memo to the White House this month expressing concerns about additional cuts. “Conditions on the ground were not yet right,” Esper reportedly argued, citing “the ongoing violence, possible dangers to the remaining troops in the event of a rapid pullout, potential damage to alliances and apprehension about undercutting the negotiations.”

Macgregor, a frequent Fox News contributor, is among those who argue its long past time for the U.S. to get out of Afghanistan after 19 years of war.

NO NEW DIRECTIVE: “There is no new mission directive — nothing has changed,” a senior White House official told the Washington Examiner’s Jerry Dunleavy. The official with knowledge of the recent moves at the Pentagon said the goal is to fulfill Trump’s longtime promises to kill bad guys, free American hostages held overseas, and wind down U.S. combat troop levels around the world, especially in Afghanistan.

“He wants to bring the troops home. He wants to end the wars,” the official said.

LOGISTICS, LOGISTICS, LOGISTICS: It’s an axiom of warfighting that battles are won by logistics, and the logistical problem of pulling 4,000 to 5,000 troops and their equipment out of Afghanistan in less than ten weeks may be the one thing that stymies Trump’s desire to complete the pullout before he leaves office.

“The president needs to recognize that battlefield reality doesn’t often comport with a political calendar. If he wants troops out of Afghanistan, as I know most Americans do, we have to do it in a way that makes sense, in an orderly manner, and that comports with battlefield reality,” said former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson on ABC’s This Week. “And, you know, Donald Trump, the dealmaker, should also appreciate that in trying to strike a deal, you don’t unilaterally surrender your greatest point of leverage by unilaterally withdrawing troops before the Afghan government and the Taliban have stuck a deal.”

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FORMER COMMANDERS WEIGH IN: The prospect of U.S. troops making a hasty pre-inaugural departure from Afghanistan was met with alarm by some of America’s recently retired four-star commanders.

“Simply saying ‘everyone home by Christmas’ and pulling the last few thousand troops out of Afghan has emotional appeal, but makes no sense,” tweeted retired Adm. James Staviridis, former supreme NATO commander. “We are close to a peace agreement — cutting out now will crater it.”

“Nobody wants ‘Endless Wars.’ Including ‘the Generals’ (never met one who does, especially, those of us who have children serving this country),” tweeted former Special Operations Commander retired Gen. Tony Thomas. “The discussion (less cliche) should be is have we achieved the end state of sustainable security so that we never have another 9/11?”

LET THE TRANSITION BEGIN: The top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee is part of the chorus of Trump critics who argue that the president is harming national security by delaying cooperation with the Biden transition team.

“No one likes to lose, but President Trump is recklessly and pointlessly blocking the transition to protect his own ego,” said Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed in a statement. “The reality is Joe Biden won with a record-breaking number of votes and President Trump’s blockade on information and resources only makes the country less safe and puts more people’s health at risk.”

“President Trump’s baseless conspiracy theories and failure to recognize basic facts are further evidence of his lack of respect for our democracy and an insult to the American people,” Reed said. “President-elect Biden must be given access to high-level intelligence briefings and all the other transition resources he needs to ensure a smooth, complete, peaceful transition of power.”

‘I CONCEDE NOTHING’: As tens of thousands of Trump supporters rallied in Washington, Trump tweeted that Biden’s victory was a sham. “He only won in the eyes of the FAKE NEWS MEDIA. I concede NOTHING! We have a long way to go. This was a RIGGED ELECTION!”

Last week, a statement from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency called the Nov. 3 election “the most secure in American history.”

THE DEMISE OF AL QAEDA’S NO. 2: As first reported by the New York Times, and corroborated by other news organizations including the Associated Press, the United States and Israel worked together to assassinate Abu Mohammed al Masri, al Qaeda’s No. 2, in Tehran Aug. 7, the anniversary of the 1998 embassy attacks in Africa he was accused of plotting.

“Around 9:00 on a warm summer night, he was driving his white Renault L90 sedan with his daughter near his home when two gunmen on a motorcycle drew up beside him. Five shots were fired from a pistol fitted with a silencer. Four bullets entered the car through the driver’s side and a fifth hit a nearby car,” the New York Times reported.

In a 20-tweet long thread on Twitter, the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies’ Thomas Joscelyn, editor of the Long War Journal, lays out some of the background behind the killing of al Masri, who has long been on the FBI’s most wanted list.

“We’ve suspected that the U.S. increased its efforts to take out senior al-Qaeda leaders across multiple countries this year. Abu Muhammad al-Masri is one in a string of operatives to perish in recent months, but he was the most senior,” Joscelyn writes, noting, “On 9/17, Christopher Miller (then NCTC director, now acting SecDef) told Congress that ‘several’ of al-Qaeda’s ‘remaining senior leaders continue to find safe haven in Iran, and will likely play a key role in the group’s efforts to reconstitute its leadership.’”

SPACE FORCE COMMANDER BACK: Space Force Gen. David Thompson, the vice chief of space operations, is back at work at the Pentagon after a two-week quarantine following a positive COVID-19 test.

Thompson was asymptomatic but tested positive after close contact with a family member. He returned to work Nov. 9, according to the Air Force.

MFO SOLDIERS ID’D: The Army has identified the five American soldiers who died in last week’s Black Hawk helicopter crash in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.

All were serving as part of peacekeeping operations with the Multinational Force and Observers mission set up to monitor the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. They are:

• Capt. Seth Vernon Vandekamp, 31, from Katy, Texas.
• Chief Warrant Officer 3 Dallas Gearld Garza, 34, from Fayetteville, N.C.
• Chief Warrant Officer 2 Marwan Sameh Ghabour, 27, from Marlborough, Mass.
• Staff Sgt. Kyle Robert McKee, 35, from Painesville, Ohio.
• Sgt. Jeremy Cain Sherman, 23, from Watseka, Illinois.

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: New Pentagon chief tells US troops that ‘it’s time to come home’

Washington Examiner: Pentagon shake-up to help cement Trump’s legacy, bringing troops home and taking out enemies, White House source says

Washington Examiner: NATO ally sees no light between new acting defense secretary and Mark Esper

Washington Examiner: Biden considering independent senator for top intelligence post: Report

Washington Examiner: Former chief of staff John Kelly says Trump’s refusal to concede ‘hurts our national security’

Washington Examiner: McCabe claims further Russia declassifications could cast Trump ‘in a very negative light’

Washington Examiner: Trump’s DHS leader Chad Wolf unlawfully in position: Federal judge

Washington Examiner: Brett Giroir confirms Trump has not attended coronavirus task force meeting in five months

AP: Nearly 2 dozen arrested in Trump protests in Washington

Military.com: Gen. Hyten, Embattled Joint Chiefs Vice Chair, Will Not Seek Second Term

Air Force Magazine: Senate Weighs in on Space Force Transfers, Procurement

Military.com: US Space Force Likely To Survive In Biden Administration, Experts Say

Bloomberg: Pentagon Shakeup Creates ‘Layers of Fear,’ Lawmaker Says

The Hill: Defense Deputy Chief Of Staff Latest Pentagon Official To Resign

Bloomberg: Trump Plans More Actions On China In Coming Weeks To Bind Biden

Washington Post: Biden administration will seek to restore stability at Pentagon, analysts say

Wall Street Journal: Asia-Pacific Countries Sign Major Trade Pact In Test For Biden

Washington Post: Iran’s Oil Exports, Uranium Stockpile Surge As Trump Administration’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ Policy Hits A Wall

Air Force Magazine: USAF’s Longest-Serving Vice Chief Retires

Agence France Presse: France Looks To Biden Era As Trump Ally Pompeo Visits

Defense Daily: Appropriators Knock Navy’s Large Surface Combatant Schedule Plan

Military.com: Navy Forges Ahead with 500-Ship Plan in Wake of Esper’s Firing

National Defense Magazine: U.S. Military Wants To Bring Allies into AI Fold

New York Times: After War Between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Peace Sees Winners and Losers Swap Places

Military.com: Enlisted Sailors on Carriers Are at Higher Risk for COVID-19, New Study Shows

Marine Corps Times: These 2 Female Marines Are In The Brig On Assault Charges. Both Claim Trauma From Rape

National Interest: How the B-1B Lancer Keeps Beating Father Time

Stars and Stripes: USS Blue Ridge, The Navy’s Oldest Operational Warship, Turns 50 In Japan

Calendar

MONDAY | NOVEMBER 16

10 a.m. — Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett speaks at the launch event of the online American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics ASCEND Summit. https://ascend2020.ascend.events

10:40 a.m. — Economic Club of Washington webinar on the Abraham Accords Declarations and the path forward in the Middle East, with Israeli Ambassador to the United States Ron Dermer; United Arab Emirates Ambassador to the United States Yousef Al Otaiba; and Bahrain Ambassador to the United States Abdullah Al Khalifa. https://www.economicclub.org/events

1 p.m. — Naval Submarine League virtual symposium: “Enabling All-Domain Maneuver Warfare from the Undersea,” with Adm. Frank Caldwell, director of the Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program. https://www.navalsubleague.org/events

3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Naval Institute webcast: “Competition with China in the Maritime Indo-Pacific Region,” with Adm. John Aquilino, commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet; and Mark Cancian, senior adviser in the CSIS International Security Program. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event

TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 17

9:30 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs webinar: “Cross-Strait Relations in Pandemic Times,” with former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Strategy and Force Development Elbridge Colby, co-founder of the Marathon Initiative; and Shelley Rigger, professor of political science at Davidson College. https://calendar.gwu.edu/cross-strait-relations-pandemic-times

10 a.m. — National Council on U.S. Arab Relations virtual Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference, with Saudi Prince Turki Al Faisal Al-Saud, chairman of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies. https://ncusar.org/auspc/2020

10 a.m. — Middle East Institute webinar: “U.S. and Iranian Strategies for a Biden Administration,” with Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Jon Alterman, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Middle East Program; Hannah Kaviani, staffer at Radio Farda; and Alex Vatanka, director of the MEI Iran Program. https://www.mei.edu/events

11 a.m. — The Heritage Foundation releases its 2021 Index of U.S. Military Strength, with Texas Rep. Mac Thornberry, ranking Republican on the House Armed Services Committee; Dakota Wood, senior research fellow for defense programs at Heritage; and Kim Holmes, executive vice president of Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/virtual-event

2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “The U.S. Army in the Indo-Pacific,” Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy; and Gen. Paul LaCamera, commander of U.S. Army Pacific. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event

4 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies webinar: “Measure Twice, Cut Once: Assessing Some China-U.S. Technology Connections,” with former Navy Secretary Richard Danzig, assistant director of policy and analysis at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory; former Acting Deputy Defense Secretary Christine Fox; and Eliot Cohen, dean of SAIS. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 18

8 a.m. — Heritage Foundation webinar: “U.S.-Taiwan Partnership in Challenging Times,” with Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa.; Republic of China Mainland Affairs Council Minister Chen Ming-tong; and Kay James, Heritage president. https://www.heritage.org/asia/event

10 a.m. — National Council on U.S. Arab Relations Annual Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference, with Former Kuwait Finance Minister Nayef Falah Al-Hajraf, cooperation council for the Arab States of the Gulf Secretary-General; Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Joey Hood; Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Arabian Gulf Affairs Timothy Lenderking; and Saudi Ambassador to the United States Reema bint Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. https://ncusar.org/auspc/2020

11 a.m. — Senate Foreign Relations Chairman James Risch, R-Idaho, holds a virtual discussion on a new report, “The United States and Europe: A Concrete Agenda for Transatlantic Cooperation on China,” with Tom Tugendhat, chair of the UK Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee; David McAllister, chair of the EU Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs; and Jamie Fly, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. https://docs.google.com/forms

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “The Role of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data in Military Operations,” with Gen. Richard Clarke, commander of U.S. Special Operations Command; Richard Shultz, director of the Tufts University International Security Studies Program; Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; and former Deputy National Security Adviser for Strategy Nadia Schadlow, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events

12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar on Army modernization, with Lt. Gen. James Pasquarette, the Army deputy chief of staff, G-8. Register at https://info.ausa.org

12 p.m. — Washington Post Live discussion with former national security adviser John Bolton, with national political reporter Robert Costa. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

12 p.m. — Naval Submarine League virtual symposium: “Enabling All-Domain Maneuver Warfare from the Undersea,” with Rear Adm. William Houston, director of Undersea Warfare. https://www.navalsubleague.org/events/annual-symposium

3 p.m. — Ploughshares Fund forum: “Transforming National Security: Nuclear Policy for a New Era,” with Sen. Edward Markey, D-Mass.; House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith, D-Wash.; and Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash. https://www.ploughshares.org/issues-analysis

THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 19

9:30 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center and the Center for Civilians in Conflict webinar: “Exceptions to the Rules: Civilian Harm and Accountability in the Shadow Wars,” focusing on CIA and Special Operations Forces rules on the lawful use of lethal force. https://www.stimson.org/event/exceptions-to-the-rules

10 a.m. — National Council on U.S. Arab Relations virtual Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference, with Marine Corps Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of the U.S. Central Command; U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia John Abizaid; Former CIA Director Gen. David Petraeus, chairman of the KKR Global Institute. https://ncusar.org/auspc/2020

12 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies webinar: “Iran and the U.S. – A Critical Juncture,” with former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman, director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Center for Public Leadership. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

1:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies webinar, “China’s Increased Influence in Latin America: Is it a Threat to the Region and the U.S.?” with Army Lt. Col. Albert Marckwardt, Colombia country director in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy and adjunct professor at SAIS. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

3:30 p.m. — U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Defense and Aerospace Export Council virtual discussion with former Defense Undersecretary for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Frank Kendall. https://www.uschamber.com/event

4:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies webinar: “U.S. Foreign Policy and Ukraine,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, vice president for strategic stability and security at the U.S. Institute of Peace. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 20

9 a.m. 2118 Rayburn/Webex — House Armed Services Committee Committee hearing: “The US military mission in Afghanistan and implications of the peace process on US involvement,” with Ryan Crocker, nonresident senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Stephen Biddle, professor of international and public affairs, Columbia University; Seth Jones, Harold Brown, Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings