Siege mentality: Putin poised to shell and starve Kyiv and Kharkiv to break Ukraine’s will

The dire warning came as members of Congress were given a classified briefing, and a massive convoy of Russian tanks, trucks, and artillery in northern Ukraine stretching for 40 miles slowly snaked its way closer to Kyiv.

“#Russia is moving to quickly choke off supplies to #Kyiv by sealing off the western part of the city,” Rubio tweeted. “Maybe #Putin takes #Kyiv, but he will NEVER conquer #Ukraine … No matter how many cities #Putin takes he will never pacify 40 million Ukrainians.”

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW 40-MILE RUSSIAN MILITARY CONVOY NEAR KYIV

KHARKIV UNDER BOMBARDMENT: In a preview of what may be in store for the capital of Kyiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city of Kharkiv came under what seemed to be random shelling into residential areas, including a massive explosion that destroyed a historic government building in the city center.

“The situation is pretty grave,” the mayor of Kharkiv, Ihor Terekhov, told the Washington Post. “Military equipment and armored vehicles are coming from different directions,” he said, adding that while the city remains under Ukrainian control, it is surrounded.

The shelling of Kharkiv came as five-hour talks between Ukraine and Russia on the Belarusan border produced no breakthrough, and the tactic of targeting civilians was quickly denounced as a war crime by President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“Synchronization of the shelling within negotiations was obvious,” said Zelensky. “I think that with this simple-minded method, Russia is trying to pressure us … We do not accept these tactics.”

In a video posted last night, Zelensky said Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered the “deliberate destruction of people” in civilian areas and called for an international tribunal to investigate. “No one in the world will forgive you for killing peaceful Ukrainian people,” he said.

RUSSIA SUSPECTED OF USING DEVASTATING CLUSTER BOMBS AND THERMOBARIC ROCKETS IN UKRAINE

‘A WORLD OF HURT’: Russia is now attempting to move its invasion force in position west of Kyiv, in an attempt to block the resupply of weapons and ammunition from the West, according to Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut.

“The ability to keep supply lines running to Ukraine remains alive, but Russia will try to encircle and cut off Kiev in the next several weeks,” Murphy tweeted after a classified briefing from Biden administration officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.

Lawmakers were told that this phase of Russia’s campaign could last another three or four weeks. “The fight for Kiev will be long and bloody and Ukrainians are rapidly preparing for street to street combat,” Murphy said.

“If we don’t get assistance into that area, I’m talking about Javelins [anti-tank missiles], I’m talking about ordnances for the remaining aircraft that the Ukrainian Air Force has, or about anti-aircraft missiles, if we don’t get that in there, that city is going to be in a world of hurt,” said former Supreme NATO commander retired Gen. Wes Clark on CNN.

“They will eventually get the bulk of that convoy into position to bring artillery and rocket fire onto Kyiv. There are infantry fighting vehicles in that convoy and tanks that could try to penetrate the city,” Clark said. “As I understand Putin’s orders, they were to besiege Kyiv, and then clear it … When the Russians come in, there’s 3,000 to 5,000 or 50,000 people in that city who believe in democracy, who have worked against the Russians. They will be targeted, and they will be either shipped out in prison, tortured, or shot on the spot.”

HUNDREDS OF RUSSIAN MERCENARIES IN KYIV WITH ORDERS TO KILL ZELENSKY: REPORT

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress at 9 p.m.

Biden’s speech was expected to focus largely on the economy, but the president will also tout his efforts to galvanize U.S. allies in punishing Russian President Vladimir Putin with harsh economic sanctions, including seizing Putin’s personal assets.

“What you’re looking at here is a unified Europe, a unified West, a unified NATO who are standing up to the aggression and the invasion led by President Putin,” said White House press secretary Jen Psaki.

The speech reportedly underwent a rewrite to include more emphasis on the theme of defending democracies around the world.

“He’ll talk about the progress that we’ve made in the last year in the face of deep challenges, and he’ll talk about his optimism for the future,” a senior administration official told reporters yesterday. “He’ll remind the country that our best days lie ahead.”

US TARGETS RUSSIA’S ‘WAR CHEST’ WITH NEW SANCTIONS

CASUALTY COUNT: In classified briefings yesterday, lawmakers were told that so far, Ukraine had suffered an estimated 1,500 casualties since the beginning of the invasion six days ago.

The latest update from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry put the number of Russian forces killed at 5,710, with 200 captured and taken prisoner.

There is no way to verify the numbers.

ESPER: KEEP NO-FLY ZONE THREAT: Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, fired by President Donald Trump following his 2020 election loss, resurfaced yesterday in an appearance on CNN.

Esper said while he understands the decision by the Biden administration not to impose a no-fly zone over parts of Ukraine, he would recommend keeping the option open.

“At this point, I would not recommend a no-fly zone. I recognize the obvious benefits. I doubt we could get all of our NATO allies on board to support that,” Esper told CNN’s Jake Tapper. “It obviously could result in a major conflict between the United States and Russia and really broaden this war in ways we don’t want to see it go. That said, I would not take the military option off the table.”

“If the Ukrainians continue to fight with the grit they’re showing, the Russians are unable to meet their objectives on the ground, you can see Putin growing increasingly frustrated and result in what is traditional Russian warfare, which would be the heavy shelling of civilian areas, aerial bombardments, et cetera,” Esper said. “At that point, the devastation could be so enormous, the civilian deaths so enormous as well, that the moral outcry would compel us to make that move.”

“I think President Biden and other Western leaders should message that to Putin right now, not to go that way.”

‘DEFINITELY ESCALATORY’: WHITE HOUSE REJECTS SUGGESTED ‘NO-FLY’ ZONE OVER UKRAINE

ESPER: TAIWAN TAKE NOTE: “It’s very important that we stand up to … authoritarian regimes such as those won by Vladimir Putin and [China’s] Xi Jinping. And, look, at the end of the day, the international order of democracy as we know it is under threat,” Esper said.

“And, by the way, it is important to note that I think the inspired leadership of Ukraine and the grit of the Ukrainian people is something the Taiwanese people should be looking at. They should be preparing for a similar attack by China one day.”

RUSSIA REGROUPS: The latest analysis from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War predicts the next phase of the Russian invasion will unfold over the next day or two.

“Russian operations around Kyiv remain limited as logistics and reinforcements arrive but will likely resume in greater strength in the next 24 hours,” the ISW said in a report released last night. “The Ukrainian military likely cannot prevent Russian forces from enveloping or encircling Kyiv if the Russians send enough combat power to do so, but likely can make Russian efforts to gain control of the city itself extremely costly and possibly unsuccessful.”

“Ukrainian resistance remains remarkably effective [while] Russian operations, especially on the Kyiv axis, have been poorly coordinated and executed, leading to significant Russian failures,” the report says. “Russian forces remain much larger and more capable than Ukraine’s conventional military, however, and Russian advances in southern Ukraine threaten to unhinge the defense of Kyiv and northeastern Ukraine if they continue unchecked.”

INDUSTRY WATCH: The Space Development Agency has announced approximately $1.8 billion in contracts to begin to build what’s known as the “National Defense Space Architecture,” a constellation of small, mass-producible satellites in low Earth orbit for missile warning, communications, and other capabilities.

The first phase involved the launch of 126 optically-interconnected space vehicles, and the contracts are divided up between Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and York Space Systems, said a Pentagon statement.

“The T1TL [Tranche 1 Transport Layer] will provide global communications access and deliver persistent regional encrypted connectivity in support of warfighter missions around the globe by serving as the backbone for Joint All Domain Command and Control,” the Pentagon said.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Russian troops inching closer to Kyiv, frustrated by slow pace

Washington Examiner: Russia kills child and two other civilians in Ukrainian preschool

Washington Examiner: ‘Definitely escalatory’: White House rejects suggested ‘no-fly’ zone over Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Crowdfunding campaign arms Ukraine with Soviet-style weapons to fight Russia

Washington Examiner: US targets Russia’s ‘war chest’ with new sanctions

Washington Examiner: Hundreds of Russian mercenaries in Kyiv with orders to kill Zelensky: Report

Washington Examiner: Satellite images show 40-mile Russian military convoy near Kyiv

Washington Examiner: Russia suspected of using devastating cluster bombs and thermobaric rockets in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: ‘I am afraid’: Ukrainian envoy reads aloud Russian soldier’s final texts to mother before death

Washington Examiner: US expels 12 Russian ‘intelligence operatives’ at the United Nations

Washington Examiner: International Criminal Court to investigate alleged war crimes in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Biden resists calls to back expanded oil and gas production to counter Russia

Washington Examiner: Defense secretary’s Tucker Carlson screenshot retweet ‘a fat finger mistake’

NBC News: Frustrated Putin may order escalation of violence in Ukraine, U.S. officials say

Washington Post: No Breakthrough In Crisis Talks

AP: Russia Slow To Win Ukraine’s Airspace, Limiting War Gains

New York Times: U.S. Treasury Department Freezes Russian Central Bank Assets

USNI News: Turkey Closes Bosphorus, Dardanelles Straits To Warships

Red Snow: A high target area that rumbles in confidence, not concern

Reuters: Cyberattack On NATO Could Trigger Collective Defence Clause – Official

Defense Daily: GAO Says LCS Needs Comprehensive Plan To Address Deficiencies, Implement Lessons

19fortyfive.com: The EU Could Give MiG-29 Fighter Jets to Ukraine to Fight Russia

19fortyfive.com: Shelling Cities: Is Russia About to Go ‘Scorched Earth’ Against Ukraine?

19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Military Looks Like the Ultimate Paper Tiger

Forbes: How Many Times Must Putin Brandish His Nuclear Weapons Before Washington Gets Serious About Missile Defense?

Calendar

TUESDAY | MARCH 1

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “Engagement with Allies and Partners,” with testimony from Mara Karlin, assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities; Jessica Lewis, assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

10 a.m. CLOSED — Senate Foreign Relations Committee CLOSED hearing: “U.S. Hostage Policy,” with testimony from Roger Carstens, special presidential envoy for hostage affairs; and Chris O’Leary, director for hostage recovery fusion cell, Federal Bureau of Investigation https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/us-hostage-policy030122

10 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion on the latest cybersecurity concerns regarding Russia and the State of the Union address, with ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee Rep. John Katko R-N.Y. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

10 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center virtual discussion: “Hindsight Up Front: Six Months After the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan,” with retired Gen. David Petraeus, co-chair of the WWC Global Advisory Council and former commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan; John McLeod Scarlett, co-chair of the WWC Global Advisory Council and chairman of SC Strategy Limited; and former U.S. Agency for International Development Administrator Mark Green, WWC president, director and CEO https://engage.wilsoncenter.org/a/hindsight-front-conversation

10 a.m. — National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations online discussion: “An Emerging Axis: Strategic Trends Between Saudi Arabia, Russia, and China, and What it Means for the Middle East,” with David Rundell, former chief of mission at the American Embassy in Saudi Arabia and author of “Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads”; and Michael Gfoeller, retired U.S. foreign service officer with service in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Moscow, Russia https://www.youtube.com/user/NCUSAR

12 p.m. — Association of the United States Army virtual discussion: “Army Climate Strategy,” with Acting Assistant Secretary of the Army Paul Farnan; and former Army Undersecretary Patrick Murphy, AUSA senior fellow https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report-army-climate-strategy-mr-paul-farnan

12 p.m. — The National Association of Secretaries of State virtual Winter Conference, with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas; and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Chief of Staff Kiersten Todt https://www.nass.org/events/nass-2022-virtual-winter-conference

12 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion on “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fall,” with author Ray Dalio, CSIS trustee; former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, CSIS counselor and trustee; and John Hamre, president and CEO of CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/book-event

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces hearing: “Fiscal Year 2023 Strategic Forces Posture Hearing,” with testimony from Sasha Baker, Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy; Adm. Charles Richard, commander, U.S. Strategic Command; Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command; and Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, commander U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2:30 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center virtual discussion: “Russia’s Aggression Toward Ukraine – the British View,” with Michael Tatham, deputy head of mission inthe British Embassy in Washington https://engage.wilsoncenter.org/a/russias-aggression-towards-ukraine-british-view

9 p.m. House Chamber, U.S. Capitol — President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress.

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 2

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies online event: “Rights Revoked: The State of Human Rights in Afghanistan After Six Months of Taliban Rule,” with U.S. Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls, and Human Rights Rina Amiri; Heather Barr, associate director of the Women’s Rights Division at Human Rights Watch; and Anne Richard, fellow and Afghanistan coordination lead at Freedom House https://www.csis.org/events/rights-revoked-state-human-rights-afghanistan

10 a.m. — National Endowment for Democracy virtual discussion: “An Offshore Cold War: Forging a Democratic Alliance to Combat Transnational Kleptocracy,” with former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Heather Conley, president of the German Marshall Fund of the United States; Oliver Bullough, author of “Moneyland: Why Thieves & Crooks Now Rule the World & How to Take it Back”; and Damon Wilson, NED president and CEO https://www.eventbrite.com/e/an-offshore-cold-war

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel hearing: “Assessing the Effectiveness of Suicide Prevention Programs,” with testimony from Bonnie Carroll, president and founder, Tragedy Assistance Program for Survivors; Dr. Craig Bryan, director, Suicide Prevention Program, hio State University Wexner Medical Center; Dr. Karen Orvis, director, Defense Suicide Prevention Office; Dr. Richard Mooney, acting deputy assistant secretary of defense, health services policy and oversight https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies press briefing to address the evolving situation in Ukraine, with Andrew Lohsen, fellow, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, CSIS; Caitlin Welsh, director, Global Food Security Program, CSIS; Erol Yayboke, director and senior fellow, Project on Fragility and Mobility, CSIS; ​Marti Flacks, director and senior fellow, Human Rights Initiative, CSIS; Seth Jones, senior vice president, director, International Security Program, CSIS; Eliot Cohen, Arleigh A. Burke chair in strategy, CSIS; and Ben Cahill, senior fellow, Energy Security and Climate Change Program, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/press-briefing-ukraine-update

THURSDAY | MARCH 3

9 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute web event, “A conversation with House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith,” with Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, AEI, Kori Schake, director, foreign and defense policy Studies, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation

9 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion with House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith, D-Wash. https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation

10 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion on how the United States and Congress should respond to Russia’s attack on Ukraine, with House Intelligence ranking member Mike Turner, R-Ohio https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

10 a.m. — United States Institute of Peace virtual discussion with Oleksandra Matviychuk, chair of the Center for Civil Liberties in Ukraine; and Asmik Arutyunyan, senior program specialist at the USIP Office of Russia and Europe https://www.usip.org/events/twitter-space-series

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittees on Seapower and Projection Forces and Readiness Joint hearing: “State of the Surface Navy,” with testimony from Adm. William Lescher, vice chief of naval operations; and Vice Adm. Roy Kitchener, commander, Naval Surface Force, U.S. Pacific Fleet https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Opportunities for Applying the AUKUS Model in South Korea, with Henry Sokolski, Executive Director, Non-Proliferation Policy Education Center; James Campbell, lead yard production manager, U.S. Naval Sea Systems Command; Park Young-June, professor, Korea National Defense University; Park Chang-Kwoun, professor, Hongik University, research fellow, Korean Institute for Defense Analysis; and Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, Hudson Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event-opportunities

1 p.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “The State of Decision Support Analysis in the DOD,” with former Deputy Defense Secretary David Norquist; former Acting Army Secretary John Whitley; and former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Policy Planning Thomas Mahnken, president and CEO of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments https://www.heritage.org/defense/event

FRIDAY | MARCH 4

10 a.m. — U.S. States Institute of Peace virtual discussion on Afghanistan as part of the Twitter Space Series “Protecting Women’s Participation in Peacebuilding,” with Wazhma Frogh, co-founder and director of the Women and Peace Studies Organization; and Belquis Ahmadi, senior program officer for Afghanistan at USIP https://www.usip.org/events/twitter-space-series

11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion “World Stage: Ukraine,” with John Bolton, former U.S. national security adviser https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “The Biden Administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy,” with Edgard Kagan, senior director for East Asia and Oceania, National Security Council; Bonny Lin, director, China Power Project and senior fellow, Asian Security, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Lisa Curtis, director, Indo-Pacific Security Program and senior fellow, Center for a New American Security; and Patrick Cronin, senior fellow, and Asia-Pacific Security Chair, Hudson Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event

WEDNESDAY | MARCH 9

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence virtual event with Audrey Schaffer, director for space policy, National Security Council; and retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, explorer chair, Mitchell Institute’s Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence. https://go.afa.org

THURSDAY | MARCH 10

10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Nuclear Deterrence and Missile Defense Forum, with Barry Pavel, director, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security; Matthew Kroenig, deputy director, Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security; and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies https://go.afa.org