HEADING FOR THE EXITS: The low-level war that the United States has waged against al-Shabab militants in Somalia for years has mostly flown below the radar, with a small number of U.S. Special Operations Forces backing local forces and troops from AMISOM, the African Union Mission in Somalia.
At any given time, the U.S. has between 650-800 personnel in Somalia depending on training missions, operations, engagements, and other security assistance activities, according to U.S. Africa Command, which from time to time posts releases on the small number of al-Shabab fighters killed in U.S airstrikes. So far this year, U.S. Africa Command has conducted 46 airstrikes to degrade the al-Shabab terrorist network.
Now, according to a report by Bloomberg, President Trump has told his top advisers he wants to withdraw U.S. troops from Somalia to make good on his campaign pledges to bring the troops home from endless wars.
“The Pentagon has begun drafting plans for the president, and discussions have involved National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley,” according to unnamed sources cited by Bloomberg.
AFRICOM’S RESPONSE: A spokesperson for U.S. Africa Command in Stuttgart, Germany, referred questions about future force deployments to the Pentagon, which has been conducting a review of U.S. troop commitments worldwide at the direction of Esper.
“While I won’t speculate on future force posture, I will tell you that U.S. Africa Command remains committed to working with Somali and international partners to enhance long-term regional stability by degrading VEO threats and organizations in Somalia,” said Kelly Cahalan in an email to the Washington Examiner. “U.S. Africa Command continues to train Somali forces, monitor al-Shabab and disrupt and degrade this dangerous terrorist network. Doing so places pressure on the network and prevents al-Shabab from achieving their long-term ambitions, which includes exporting violence more broadly and attacking the U.S.”
EXPERTS WEIGH IN: The debate about whether it’s time to pull U.S. troops out of Somalia again centers on the cost-benefit of using a relatively small number of troops, which are not on the front lines, to help keep terrorists on their back foot. Here’s a sampling of opinion we gathered yesterday:
“I would argue this is a smart idea and one that should move forward. With the robust intelligence capabilities the U.S. has — even in this tough part of the world — drones, cyber, and special forces can handle most threats,” says Harry Kazianis of the Center for the National Interest. “More troops on the ground are a tempting target that have limited utility for us there.”
“I worry that Trump is looking for Hail Mary ‘wins’ to say he is ending forever wars. This is becoming part of a pattern — with wanton recklessness for proper planning,” says Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution. “Somalia is a mess. But it could get so much worse, as it has before,” O’Hanlon told Daily on Defense. “Pulling out a modest presence that is primarily designed for counterterrorism against extremists, some affiliated with ISIS and/or al Qaeda, is a false economy that could contradict Trump’s earlier promises to protect the American homeland from terrorists.”
“Somalia is a quagmire, so it’s not surprising the president wants to get out,” says Mark Cancian, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “However, some U.S. presence is valuable to keep a lid on the violence and to prevent Somalia from becoming a failed state where piracy, which affects all maritime nations, can flourish.”
WHAT IS THE US DOING THERE? “The U.S. regularly conducts advise and assist missions with Somali partner forces,” says Col. Chris Karns, U.S. Africa Command’s director of public affairs.
“The collective efforts of the U.S. and Somalia place pressure on al-Shabab, limiting their ability to extend their reach and movement. Al-Shabab remains a dangerous enemy,” Karns says. “Continued pressure is being placed on this al Qaeda-affiliated threat to limit its ability to expand and export violence, terrorism, and crime more broadly.”
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo holds a briefing with Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud on the inaugural U.S.-Saudi Strategic Dialogue at the State Department at 8:45 a.m. Livestream at https://www.state.gov
And at the same time, Defense Secretary Mark Esper welcomes South Korean Defense Minister Suh Wook to the Pentagon with an enhanced honor cordon.
MILLEY KOREA: Yesterday Gen. Mark Milley, who has been quarantining at his quarters in Ft. Myer, met virtually with his South Korean counterpart, Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Won In-Choul, as part of the 45th Republic of Korea and U.S. Military Committee Meeting.
“Gen. Milley reiterated the United States’ firm commitment to the Republic of Korea and to providing extended deterrence,” said a spokesperson for Milley. “Gen. Won praised joint efforts to maintain the Alliance’s ‘Fight Tonight’ readiness despite COVID-19 difficulties. Both leaders acknowledged the critical nature of multilateral partnerships and agreed to further strengthen efforts for regional peace and security.”
Also taking part in the virtual discussion was U.S. Indo-Pacific Command commander Adm. Phil Davidson and Gen. Robert Abrams, commander of the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command, United States Forces Korea, and United Nations Command.
ARMING TAIWAN IS POINTED SIGNAL TO BEIJING: As China has been increasingly threatening Taiwan with saber-rattling exercises, the Trump administration is poised to approve a new weapons package that includes 100 coastal defense cruise missiles to improve the island’s ability to repel an invasion from the mainland, reports the Washington Examiner’s Joel Gehrke.
“They’re the most significant buy. And they’re probably the most important as well,” Gehrke was told by a source, who put the value of the sale at more than $2 billion.
Congress has been briefed about the pending approval of the deal, which was first reported by Reuters. The package includes a number of weapons systems, such as truck-mounted artillery and long-range air-to-ground missiles, as the United States seeks to provide the island with enough weaponry to deter an invasion by the mainland communist power’s People’s Liberation Army.
“While the PLA’s actions are real and dangerous, the PLA is not unbeatable,” David Helvey, the acting U.S. assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, said last week. “Taiwan can, through smart investments, send a clear signal to Beijing that Taiwan’s society and its armed forces are absolutely committed to the defense of Taiwan.”
CSIS CHINA SURVEY: The Center for Strategic and International Studies is out with a new opinion survey of the U.S public and thought leaders in the United States, Asia, and Europe on China policy.
Among the findings:
Fifty-four percent of the U.S. public names China as the country posing the greatest challenge to the United States — Russia is a distant second at 22%.
Eighty-four percent of thought leaders surveyed in Asia and Europe think the United States would prevail in an armed conflict with China in the Western Pacific today, though just 56% think the United States would prevail 10 years from now.
Sixty-one percent of thought leaders in Asia and Europe say Joe Biden would be better positioned to deal with China.
Read the full survey here.
ON CALL IF NEEDED: Army leaders said yesterday that there has been no consideration of any role for active-duty or National Guard troops to provide security either before or after the November elections.
“There’s been no planning guidance given out from the Department of the Army directing any military police units to begin training for any situation,” said Army Chief of Staff James McConville at a Pentagon briefing, “But as you know, our soldiers and our units are always prepared in training to conduct their missions.”
Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy, who has a unique role as the commander of the Washington D.C. National Guard also said he sees no role for the Guard. “There have been no requests from other agencies to support at this time, but we’re always available to support, whether it’s Metro P.D. or other federal agencies,” he said. “We support law enforcement, whether that is at the federal or state and local levels. We don’t police American streets.”
‘NO ROLE, ZERO’: In his Monday interview with NPR, Joint Chiefs Chairman Milley said that in the event of a disputed election outcome, the U.S. military would stay out of it.
“This isn’t the first time that someone has suggested that there might be a contested election. And if there is, it’ll be handled appropriately by the courts and by the U.S. Congress,” Milley said. “There’s no role for the U.S. military in determining the outcome of a U.S. election. Zero. There is no role there.”
“I’m very confident in the resilience of the American institutions and the American government and the American people’s adherence to the principles of rules of law. And we, the military, stay out of domestic politics — very, very deeply rooted into the very essence of our Republic.”
McCONVILLE COVID-FREE: At yesterday’s briefing, Army Chief McConnville, who has been self-isolating following possible exposure to COVID-19, said it turns out that he was not infected.
“I’d just like you to know I’ve been screened and tested multiple times over the last two weeks. I was tested this morning and all negative, and I’ve been cleared by the docs to come back in, so it’s great to be with you all today,” McConville greeted reporters in the Pentagon briefing room. “No positive tests, all negative all the way through.”
ISIS PROPAGANDA: Researchers at the Counter Extremism Project say a recently released ISIS propaganda video features purported combat footage between ISIS and Taliban forces in Afghanistan, shows the bodies of Taliban fighters killed in action, and accuses the Taliban of working for the U.S.
“On October 7, ISIS online supporters re-released a recent propaganda video with French subtitles,” the group says. “The video, ‘To Be Absolved Before Your Lord 2’ was originally released on September 22 via the group’s self-proclaimed Khorasan province in Afghanistan. The footage shows combat between ISIS and Taliban forces allegedly in Nangarhar and Kunar provinces.”
THE NEW ARMY MUSEUM: The National Museum of the United States Army — the first and only museum to tell the history of the U.S. Army since its establishment in 1775 — opens next month at Fort Belvoir, Virginia.
The museum will open its doors to the public on Veterans Day, Nov. 11, with enhanced health and safety measures for visitors and free, timed-entry tickets to manage visitor capacity.
The museum is a joint effort between the U.S. Army and the Army Historical Foundation, a nonprofit organization, which constructed the building through private funds. The Army, which owns and operates the museum, provided the infrastructure, roads, utilities, and exhibit work that transformed the building into a museum. You can take a three-minute video tour of the museum here.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US moves to sell Taiwan $2B coastal defense cruise missile package to deter Chinese invasion
Washington Examiner: Japan says it will strengthen missile defense after North Korean military parade
Washington Examiner: ‘We support law enforcement’: DC Guard ready for election violence, but no specific training underway
Washington Examiner: Repeat deployments and coronavirus lockdowns weigh on soldiers as Army suicides rise
AP: China And Russia Win Seats On UN Rights Council, Saudis Lose
Bloomberg: Navy’s Frigate Seen Busting Goal by 40% at $1.2 Billion Each
Defense Daily: CNO On Light Carrier Utility And Next Destroyer Size In Navy Plan
Air Force Magazine: Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile Becomes High-Priority USAF Project
Air Force Magazine: European Leaders Urge US to Extend New START
Defense One: US: Russia Has Agreed to Extend New START to Tactical Nukes. Russia: No, We Haven’t
Wall Street Journal: Hundreds Of Syrian Rebels Join Armenia-Azerbaijan Fight
Washington Post: In Supreme Court hearing, Justice Department says military appeals court was wrong to dismiss three rape cases
The Hill: Marine Corps fires commander following deadly July assault vehicle accident
Washington Post: Navy Announces Plans For New Flagship Museum In Washington
USNI News: SECNAV Names Attack Boat After WWII USS Barb, DDG For Former SECNAV Lehman
Military Times: Marines Investigating Okinawa Bar Fight Of Nearly 2 Dozen Service Members
Daily Mail: Quarter Of Crew On £3billion Nuclear Submarine Dubbed ‘HMS Sex And Cocaine’ Test Positive For Coronavirus After Defying Orders And Going Drinking At Bars And Strip Clubs Near U.S. Naval Base
Washington Examiner: Opinion: How US gas exports to Europe are undermining Vladimir Putin
Forbes: Opinion: Why Secretary Esper’s Call For Light Carriers Would Make The U.S. Navy Weaker
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 14
8:45 a.m. Pentagon River Entrance — Defense Secretary Mark Esper welcomes South Korean Defense Minister Suh Wook to the Pentagon with an enhanced honor cordon.
8:45 a.m. 2201 C St. N.W. — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo holds a briefing at the State Department with Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud on the inaugural U.S.-Saudi Strategic Dialogue. Livestream at https://www.state.gov/
11 a.m. — U.S. Representative Office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran webinar: “An Effective Iran Policy: Sanctions or No Sanctions?” with former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Eric Edelman; former Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph; James Jay Carafano, vice president of the Heritage Foundation’s Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy; Jonathan Ruhe, director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs; and Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the Washington office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran. https://ncrius-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
11:30 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace webinar: “Conversation on a ReSTART for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control,” with Alexey Arbatov, head of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations’ Center for International Security; former NATO Deputy Secretary-General Rose Gottemoeller, lecturer at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation; Pranay Vaddi, fellow in the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program; and James Acton, co-director of the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program. https://carnegieendowment.org
12 p.m. — Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville speaksat the virtual Association of the U.S. Army Annual Meeting and Exposition. https://www.ausa.org
4:30 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America webcast: “Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge,” with Rep. Brad Schneider, D-Ill.; and Michael Makovsky, president and CEO of JINSA. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 15
10 a.m. — Defense Secretary Mark Esper addresses the Association of the U.S. Army’s 2020 virtual annual meeting in pre-recorded remarks. https://meetings.ausa.org
11 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States webinar: “Is the Trump Administration’s Maximum Pressure Campaign Against Iran Working?” with Richard Nephew, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy; Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and Ariane Tabatabai, Middle East fellow at the Alliance for Security Democracy. https://www.gmfus.org/events
11 a.m. — Politico virtual Artificial Intelligence (AI) Summit, with Eric Schmidt, chairman of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence; Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash.; and Nand Mulchandani, acting director of the Defense Department’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center. https://www.politico.com/live-events
1 p.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion with Heidi Grant, director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, focusing on U.S. arms sales to the Middle East. https://www.mei.edu/events/mei-defense-leadership-series
2 p.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual Tech Summit, with Navy Rear Adm. John Polowczyk, Joint Staff vice director for logistics; Gil Alterovitz, director of the Veterans Affairs Department National Artificial Intelligence Institute; Thomas Beach, interim chief data officer at the Commerce Department; and Ted Kaouk, chief data officer at the https://connellyworks.swoogo.com
9 p.m. — Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden participates in a town hall forum hosted by ABC News in lieu of the previously scheduled Trump-Biden second presidential debate, with ABC News chief anchor George Stephanopoulos.
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 16
9 a.m. — Aspen Security Forum: “President Trump’s National Security Agenda,” with national security adviser Robert O’Brien and Stephen Hadley, former national security adviser to President George W. Bush. https://aspeninst.zoom.us/webinar/register
9 a.m. — Counter Extremism Project webinar: ‘The Prospect For Peace In Afghanistan,” with Amb. Edmund Fitton-Brown, coordinator, ISIL, al-Qaida and Taliban Monitoring Team, UNSC; and Dr. Ellinor Zeino, country representative, Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Afghanistan. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
10 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace webinar: “Russia’s War in Donbas: Ripe for a Resolution?” with Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Reznikov; Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Volodymyr Yelchenko; Orysia Lutsevych, manager of the Chatham House Ukraine Forum; Donald Jensen, director of the USIP office of Strategic Stability and Security; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, vice president of the USIP Office of Strategic Stability and Security. https://www.usip.org/events/russias-war-donbas-ripe-resolution
10 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs webinar: “What’s New Under the Sun? Nuclear and Military Affairs in U.S.-Russian Relations.” Polina Sinovets, head of the Mechnikov National University’s Center for Nonproliferation; Adam Stulberg, head of Georgia Institute of Technology’s Sam Nunn School of International Affairs; Mikhail Troitskiy, associate professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations; and Dmitry Gorenburg, senior research scientist at CNA. https://elliott.gwu.edu/event-calendar
1 p.m. — Air Force Association Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Space Power Forum with Lt. Gen B. Chance Saltzman, deputy chief of space operations for operations, cyber, and nuclear, U.S. Space Force. https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org
3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Innovation in the Intelligence Community.” with Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 20
12 p.m. — McCain Institute for International Leadership virtual book talk on The Luckiest Man: Life with John McCain, with McCain’s longtime adviser, coauthor and friend Mark Salter; and McCain Institute Trustee and former Sen. Joseph Lieberman. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/authors-insights
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security Fireside Chat with Brett Goldstein, director, Defense Digital Service, with CNAS senior fellows Susanna Blume and Paul Scharre. https://cnas.zoom.us/webinar/register
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 22
9 a.m — Northrop Grumman Corporation conference call to announce its third quarter 2020 financial results. http://investor.northropgrumman.com
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 30
5:30 p.m. — Air Force Association virtual discussion “Airmen in the Fight: AFA Roll Call” with Gen. Stephen “Seve” Wilson, Air Force vice chief of staff. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The U.S. military has acted, and will continue to act, in accordance with the Constitution and the law.”
Defense Secretary Mark Esper, in a written response to two Democratic House members about whether he would refuse orders to send active-duty troops to the polls and commit to facilitating a peaceful transition of power, as quoted by the Hill.
