Pentagon watchdog reports ISIS continues to wage ‘low-level insurgency’ in both Iraq and Syria

According to the U.S. special envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, there are still some 14,000 to 18,000 ISIS remnants spread between Syria and Iraq, therefore remaining a threat as an insurgency and terrorist operation.

NOT HURTING FOR MONEY: The report cites the U.S. Treasury Department as reporting that ISIS continues to generate funds through criminal activities and continues “to move money within and out of Syria and Iraq through couriers and other money services.”

ISIS, it says, “has access to financial reserves in the hundreds of millions of dollars even as it works to rebuild ‘significantly reduced’ fund-generating networks.”

NOT MAKING A COMEBACK: Nevertheless, the DOD IG report says that following a spike in ISIS attacks after the United States killed its leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi last October, the number of attacks in the first three months of 2020 is down, according to the U.S. military.

“Both U.S. Central Command and the Defense Intelligence Agency reported that ISIS lacks the capabilities to sustain elevated attack levels over several months,” the report says. “USCENTCOM said the decrease in attacks in Syria this quarter was ‘strong evidence’ that ISIS is not ‘making a comeback,’ as some other officials have stated.”

‘SIGNIFICANT RISK’ IN SYRIA: In Syria, the report quoted Operation Inherent Resolve as saying its mission and partner forces face “significant risk” from ISIS prisoners and supporters residing in camps for internally displaced persons.

The coalition reported that the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces “face continued difficulty guarding detention facilities and ISIS-affiliated camp residents continue to facilitate ISIS activities.”

US CONSOLIDATING IN IRAQ: The report covers a period during which the U.S. began consolidating its forces, transferring control of four Iraqi military bases to the Iraqi Security Forces as part of a planned troop consolidation.

“While the base transfers were part of a long-term transition plan, [the coalition] stated that increased threats from malign actors and greater force protection concerns accelerated the timing of the transfers,” the report said.

“The base transfers were possible because the ISF is increasingly able to conduct independent operations against ISIS,” it said. Thus, conditions “appear to be met” to transition to the next phase of the campaign against ISIS, which focuses on the coalition providing more mentorship to the ISF and less support for tactical missions targeting ISIS.

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Sivak and Tyler Van Dyke. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: The U.S. Navy Flight Demonstration Squadron, the Blue Angels, will honor front-line COVID-19 responders with formation flights over Nashville, Tennessee, and Little Rock, Arkansas.

“A formation of six F/A-18C/D Hornet aircraft will conduct these flyovers as a collaborative salute to healthcare workers, first responders, military, and other essential personnel while standing in solidarity with all Americans during the COVID-19 pandemic,” the Navy said in a news release.

AFGHANISTAN AFTERMATH: In the Afghan capital of Kabul, families of the victims of Tuesday’s shocking attack on a Doctors Without Borders maternity ward were left grieving. The assault by unknown gunmen left 24 dead, including nurses, mothers, and two newborn babies. Among the dead was a pregnant woman, in labor when a gunman shot her in the stomach.

“While these pregnant women and babies were in one of life’s most vulnerable states, an unknown number of assailants stormed the maternity hospital and unleashed a series of explosions and gunfire that lasted for hours,” said Doctors Without Borders in a statement yesterday recounting the horrors.

“This senseless act of cowardly violence cost the lives of many people and deprived women and children in Kabul of a fundamental health care service where access to essential care is already limited,” the group said. “Our staff of midwives, doctors, cleaners, nurses, cooks, watchmen, and administrative staff provide invaluable services to women in need of maternal care, especially for those with complicated deliveries.”

“We mourn the loss of several patients, and we have indications that at least one colleague was also killed,” the statement said, while noting, “While fighting was on-going, one woman gave birth to her baby and both are doing well.”

TALIBAN DENY RESPONSIBILITY: The Taliban say they’re not responsible for the horrific attack, nor for a separate attack by a suicide bomber the same day at a funeral in Nangahar province, where 32 mourners were killed and 133 wounded. ISIS has since claimed responsibility for that attack.

But the Taliban have “relentlessly attacked Afghan security forces since the U.S. and the group signed an agreement on Feb. 29 that sets the conditions for American forces to withdraw from the country,” notes Bill Roggio, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“The Taliban has been clear that it will continue to attack Afghan security forces after signing the withdrawal agreement,” writes Roggio in FDD’s Long War Journal.

“U.S. officials have repeatedly claimed the Taliban has committed to a so-called ‘reduction in violence,’” he writes. But Roggio argues, “There is nothing in the three and half page agreement between the U.S. and the Taliban that mentions a reduction on violence, let alone a ceasefire, as some U.S. officials are demanding. Because of this, the Taliban will continue military operations against the Afghan government.”

U.S. officials have suggested the pledge to reduce violence is included in secret annexes to the withdrawal agreement that have not been made public.

TRUMP’S REACTION: At the White House yesterday, President Trump was asked if, in the midst of the violence in Afghanistan, he is concerned that the peace deal may be falling apart.

“Look, Afghanistan, we’ve been there for many years, we’re like a police force. We’re not fighting in Afghanistan, we’re a police force in Afghanistan, and at some point, they’re going to have to be able to take care of their country, they’re going to have to be able to police their country. But we’re not meant to be a police force, we’re meant to be fighters,” Trump said, adding that he was not up to date on the latest attacks. “We’ve been there for a long time, so I don’t know, we’ll have to see.”

“In Kabul, we’ve had some — I understand some pretty big blow-ups,” he said. “But again, we are the greatest fighting force in the world. We’re not a police force that’s going to stay around and police the streets and check out the red lights and traffic. It’s not what we’re supposed to be doing,” he said. “The government has to be able at some point to do something for themselves, OK?”

INDUSTRY WATCH: “The Department of Defense’s Defense Logistics Agency, in coordination with FEMA and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, has signed a $134 million contract award with the Federal Resources Supply Company to provide personal protective equipment kits including protective eyewear, gloves, gowns, and masks for medical personnel at over 15,000 nursing home locations,” the Pentagon said in a statement.

“Deliveries have started this week in New York, New Jersey, Washington D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia and will be completed across the United States, Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and Territory of Guam by the end of June at FEMA designated priority locations.”

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Russian deterrence funds to Europe slashed to pay for border wall

Washington Examiner: Chinese military action plausible as its leaders feel backed into a corner

Washington Examiner: US accuses Chinese hackers of attempting to steal coronavirus vaccine research

New York Times: Another Sailor Infected in Aircraft Carrier’s Battle Against a Relentless Enemy

USNI News: Pentagon Evaluation Of Fleet Response To COVID-19 Follows Congressional Request For Investigation

Stars and Stripes: Coronavirus Cases Surge In Singapore, Home To U.S. Navy Littoral Combat Ships And Logistics Hub

Defense Daily: House’s $3T COVID-19 Relief Bill Offers Protections, Aid for Federal Contractors

New York Times: Born Into Carnage, 18 Afghan Babies Face an Uncertain Fate

Washington Post: ‘There’s no humanity left’: A family buries a mother and her unborn child in Afghanistan

AP: Trump gets ally as ex-Navy pilot wins California House seat

Breaking Defense: Contractors Recovering From COVID Shutdowns: Bruce Jette

CQ Roll Call: GAO: Pentagon Hasn’t Delivered On Promises To Combat Sexual Harassment And Assault

Washington Post: Court asks retired judge to oppose Justice Dept. effort to drop Flynn case and examine if ex-Trump adviser committed perjury

Defense News: DoD Asks Congress For Columbia Submarine Block Buy

UPI: Aircraft Carrier USS Gerald R. Ford Fitted To Serve 1,000 More Personnel

Reuters: U.S. Sails Warship Near Taiwan A Week Ahead Of Presidential Inauguration

UPI: Opinion: A MAD world: presidential succession in the age of coronavirus

Just the News: Russia uses mercenaries to sow chaos in Libya, experts say

New York Times: Munir Mangal, Afghan General and Police Commander, Dies at 70

Calendar

THURSDAY | MAY 14

11 a.m. — Business Council for International Understanding webcast on “5G Development and Deployment,” with FCC Chairman Ajit Pai. Note: closed to press, but business community members can RSVP at http://www.bciu.org/events/upcoming-events.

11:30 a.m. — Center of Turkish-American Relations webinar: “The Future of the Transatlantic Military Alliance,” with retired Adm. James Stavridis, former NATO supreme allied commander, Europe; Fikri Isik, former Turkish defense minister; and Carla Babb, Pentagon correspondent, Voice of America. https://turkheritage.zoom.us/webinar/register

3 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar with former Iraqi Electricity Minister Luay Al-Khatteeb. https://atlanticcouncil.org/event

FRIDAY | MAY 15

11 a.m. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments webinar discussing the book “The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare,” with author Christian Brose, former staff director of the Senate Armed Services Committee; and Thomas Mahnken, president and CEO of CSBA. https://zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. — Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies webcast: “Nuclear Arms Agreements and Human Rights,” with Roya Hakakian, founding member of the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center; David Koplow, professor of law at Georgetown University Law Center; and Benedict Rogers, East Asia team leader at Christian Solidarity Worldwide. https://fedsoc.org/events

2 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center’s Asia Program webcast on Pakistan’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, U.S.-Pakistan relations, and the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan, with Pakistani Ambassador to the United States Asad Majeed Khan. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event

SATURDAY | MAY 16

TBA — The Department of the Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office, in partnership with the U.S. Space Force, is scheduled to launch the sixth mission of the X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle (OTV-6) on May 16 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida. https://www.spaceforce.mil