THE FALL AND/OR RISE OF ISIS: The Islamic State in Syria is either on its last legs or on the verge of a resurgence, depending on whose assessment you’re buying. At the Pentagon yesterday, Col. Sean Ryan, the chief spokesman for the anti-ISIS coalition, said U.S.-backed fighters are closing in on the “last pocket of ISIS resistance” in Syria, and insisted that remaining ISIS fighters are becoming increasingly desperate. “Let me be clear: ISIS is not yet defeated, they’re in the final throes of their evil ambitions.” Ryan said the ISIS remnants are essentially trapped in a small area of the Middle Euphrates River Valley and are being captured by the hundreds, with over 700 men now being held by Syrian Democratic Forces along with their families. The total number of ISIS members, including women and children, now in custody is reported to be more than 2,000.

HAPPENING TODAY: Watch your phones. This afternoon beginning at 2:18, the Federal Emergency Management Agency will test the new nationwide president emergency alert system. The message will be broadcast by cell phone towers across the nation to about 225 million electronic devices over a 30 minute period. It will have a subject line that says “Presidential Alert” and the text will say: “THIS IS A TEST of the National Wireless Emergency Alert System. No action is needed.”

You should hear the tone even if your phone is on mute, or set to “do not disturb.”

WAS IT RICIN? Last night, the Secret Service confirmed it is investigating a third letter suspected to have been laced with a toxic substance, and appeared related to two others sent to the Pentagon that were discovered Monday. CNN reported the substance is suspected to be ricin, a deadly toxin derived from castor beans, and that the envelopes were addressed to Mattis, President Trump, and Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson.

The Pentagon has not publicly confirmed those details, but released a statement saying the envelopes tested positive for a suspicious substance during mail screening Monday at the Pentagon’s remote screening facility, which is adjacent to, but separate from, the Pentagon building. “All USPS mail received at the Pentagon mail screening facility yesterday is currently under quarantine and poses no threat to Pentagon personnel,” said Col. Robert Manning, a Pentagon spokesman.

EXCUSE ME, WHAT DID YOU JUST SAY? U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison sounded like she was ready to start World War III yesterday when she said at a NATO news conference that if Russia doesn’t comply with the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which bans certain cruise missiles of the type Russia is now deploying, the U.S. might be forced to take them out. “The countermeasures would be to take out the missiles that are in development by Russia in violation of the treaty. So that would be the countermeasure eventually,” she said, indicating a military strike would be a last resort.

Reporters were taken aback, and one gave Hutchison a chance to walk back the idea of a preemptive strike that could spark an all-out war. “We are a little excited here,” said a reporter from the Associated Press. “Do you mean to get those [missiles] withdrawn?”

But Hutchison plowed ahead. “Well, withdrawing, yes. Getting them to withdraw would be our choice, of course,” she said. “But I think the question was what would you do if this continues to a point where we know that they are capable of delivering. And at that point, we would then be looking at a capability to take out a missile that could hit any of our countries in Europe and hit America in Alaska.”

Gulp.

WHAT THE AMBASSADOR MEANT TO SAY: Later on Twitter, Hutchison attempted to temper her remarks, retweeting a Reuters story and pinning it to the top of her Twitter feed with a disclaimer. “I was not talking about preemptively striking Russia. My point: [Russia] needs to return to INF Treaty compliance or we will need to match its capabilities to protect US & NATO interests. The current situation, with [Russia] in blatant violation, is untenable.”

MATTIS ASKING ADVICE: In Paris, Mattis said it’s been clear for a few years now that Russia is ignoring the terms of the 1987 INF Treaty between Russia and the United States. Both the Obama administration and now the Trump administration have tried to persuade Russia to come back in compliance, to no avail.

Mattis says he’s bringing up the subject at today’s NATO Defense Ministerial in Brussels. “I want the advice from the NATO nations, what do we do with a treaty that two nations entered into, one is still living by — that’s us, the United States — and Russia is not?” Mattis said. “I cannot forecast where it will go. It’s a decision for the president.”

Some argue it’s time to scrap the Cold War Era treaty signed President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev because it applies to Russia and the U.S. but not China, which is also developing new land-based cruise missiles.

The National Defense Authorization Act approves money for research into development, but not production of, a U.S. land-based cruise missile, which is NOT prohibited by the treaty.

RUSSIA’S STANDARD DENIAL: Russia continues to deny any treaty violation and issued a quick rebuke of Hutchison’s talk of “taking out” Russian missiles. “It seems that people who make such statements do not understand the degree of their responsibility and the danger of such aggressive rhetoric,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. “Who has this lady been authorized by to make such statements?”

Meanwhile, Zakharova said Russia plans to increase its military presence in the North Atlantic to counter NATO in the region. “All these NATO preparations cannot be ignored, and the Russian Federation will take the necessary tit-for-tat measures to ensure its own security,” she said, per state-run media. “Reckless saber-rattling in this previously calm region can have far-reaching consequences, and not through any fault of ours.”

POMPEO TO PYONGYANG: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is scheduled to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang Sunday to make arrangements for a second summit between Kim and Trump.

Pompeo begins with a stop in Japan Saturday, then moves to North Korea Sunday, and then to South Korea Sunday night and Monday, and ends with a stop in China. Originally, Mattis was to meet up with Pompeo for “two-plus-two” talks, but Mattis pulled out after China failed to commit to having a military counterpart to Mattis available.

NO REGRETS: Asked by reporters traveling with him to Paris Monday if he was disappointed he had to cancel his planned visit to China because of increasing friction between the U.S. and Chinese militaries, the U.S. defense secretary said no, and quipped in typical Mattis style, “I keep my personal feelings for my girlfriend.”

KIM’S LETTER: South Korean President Moon Jae-in delivered a message to Trump on behalf of North Korea that “made it clear that Kim Jong Un was determined to ensure the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” Ambassador Woo Yoon-keun told Russian media outlets.

ERNST QUESTIONS SYRIA STRIKE AUTHORITY: In a recent letter to Mattis, Sen. Joni Ernst wants to know what the Pentagon is planning to do if Syria’s Bashar Assad wages another chemical attack on his people and what legal justification it would claim for another air strike. The Trump administration has warned Assad of another strong retaliation for such an attack, which triggered cruise missile strikes in 2017 and 2018.

“While I have supported previous uses of military force against the Syrian government, I am increasingly concerned about U.S. military action not authorized by the 2001 and 2003 Authorizations for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) or the War Powers Resolution,” Ernst, who is a Senate Armed Services subcommittee chairwoman, wrote in the Sept. 25 letter released by her office Tuesday.

GRASSLEY QUESTIONS $1,200 ‘HOT’ CUPS: Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, a frequent crusader against Pentagon waste, fraud and abuse, has fired off a letter to Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson asking why the 60th Aerial Port Squadron at Travis Air Force Base is purchasing cups that cost $1,280 each. Citing a recent report that the squadron has spent nearly $56,000 on cups that can reheat liquids during flight over the past three years, Grassley wrote, “This latest example of reckless spending of taxpayer dollars gives me no confidence that the Air Force is taking real steps to reduce wasteful spending practices.”

The report in question was “an old story that Fox ran recently,” said Brig. Gen. Ed Thomas, an Air Force spokesman, when contacted by the Washington Examiner. “The original Air Force article was about innovation and how we are no longer held hostage by the low quantity of economics on replacement parts like these. 3D printing is saving us a lot of money,” he said.

“While it is laudable that the men and women at Travis Air Force Base took action to curb this wasteful spending, this does not address the puzzling question of why the Air Force is buying these cups at such a high cost to begin with,” Grassley wrote.

A NEW LOOK: Check out the Pentagon’s official website at defense.gov. It’s undergone a total makeover and has a whole new look. Which means it’s going to take a while to locate the things you used to know where to find.

THE RUNDOWN

Washington Examiner: US chides Iran over ‘reckless’ missile barrage

Washington Post: Meet the man at the center of the high-stakes, winner-take-all $10 billion Pentagon cloud contract called JEDI

Forbes: Could Air Force Bargain Hunting In Weapons Competitions Backfire?

AP: Russia delivers S-300 air defenses to Syria

Roll Call: Senate Eyes Passage of Bill to Check China in Asia-Pacific

Defense News: Mattis offers easing of US export limits on French cruise missile

New York Times: Election Rally Bombing in Afghanistan Heightens Security Fears

Foreign Policy: The Fight Against Terror Needs Better Data

War on the Rocks: Horns of a Dilemma: National Security Dimensions of Global Food Insecurity

The Hill: Mattis: US not planning to cut back ‘one bit’ of support for French operations in Mali

Military Times: 126,000 service members in crosshairs for separation as DoD’s ‘deploy or get out’ policy takes effect

USNI News: Truman Carrier Strike Group Leveraging Unusual Deployment to Work on Undersea Warfare, Strengthen Northern NATO Partnerships

Breaking Defense: Pentagon Searching For New Ways To Move Gear During Next War