SHOOT AND SCOOT: The group behind the attack has not been confirmed, but this morning’s (7:20 a.m. Baghdad time) rocket assault on an Iraqi base hosting U.S. troops has all the earmarks of the same Iranian-backed militias responsible for previous attacks in recent weeks.
The initial report, tweeted by U.S. military spokesman Col. Wayne Marotto, said 10 “indirect fire” rockets hit the al Asad air base in Anbar, where many of the remaining 2,500 U.S. forces in Iraq are based, and that Iraqi Security Forces are investigating. In a later statement, the Iraqi military said there were no significant losses and that the abandoned launch pad used to fire the volley of rockets had been found.
The attack comes five days after the U.S. bombed a series of buildings at a border crossing in Syria that suspected militant groups used to cross into Iraq, and less than 24 hours after the Pentagon expressed the hope that its “proportionate military response” last week would deter more attacks.
“I don’t think we’ve seen any demonstrable effect yet,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters at an off-camera briefing yesterday. “One of the things we were certainly hoping to achieve as a result of that strike was to deter future attacks by militia groups on our people, our facilities, and our Iraqi partners.”
CAN THAT BE RIGHT? This latest rocket attack targeted the same base that was hit on Jan. 8, 2020, by 11 ballistic missiles with powerful 1,000-pound warheads that were launched by Iran in response to the U.S. assassination of top Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani. New details of the attack and how close it came to killing U.S. troops and destroying U.S. aircraft on the ground were revealed in a report that aired on CBS’s 60 Minutes Sunday night.
But a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, a noted arms control expert, is taking issue with one part of the report: the assertion by U.S. Central Commander Gen. Frank McKenzie that he outmaneuvered the Iranians by waiting to evacuate planes and U.S. troops until after Iran had downloaded its last commercially acquired overhead imagery that would have shown “airplanes on the ground and people working.”
That just doesn’t add up, argues Prof. Jeffrey Lewis, who teaches courses on arms control issues at the Middlebury Institute. “The story could not have occurred on the timeline that McKenzie describes. There is a big time gap between when a picture is taken (‘collection time’) and when the image is available to customers (‘delivery time’),” Lewis tweeted. “He could have moved his forces after the satellite collected the image. If McKenzie wasted several hours after collection waiting for the image to be *delivered*, he should be relieved of command for incompetence.”
In his Twitter thread, Lewis disputes McKenzie’s assertion that the pre-strike satellite images would have shown airplanes on the ground and people working. “It’s uncommon to see piloted aircraft at Ain Al Asad out in the open and the resolution isn’t good enough to see ‘people working.’”
Furthermore, Lewis asserts, “I can’t find any evidence that any commercial satellite firm offered for sale a picture from the days before the strike. The most recent pre-strike images from @planetlabs and @airbus were taken December 30, more than a week prior.”
“I don’t know whether McKenzie made up his tall tale himself or just embellished one that was going around,” Lewis said.
Daily on Defense has reached out to the U.S. Central Command for a response.
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Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: It’s time for part two of the investigation by the Senate Homeland Security and the Senate Rules committees, which are conducting a joining post mortem on the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
Today at 10 a.m., the committee will take testimony from Melissa Smislova, from DHS, Jill Sanborn, from the FBI, and Robert Salesses, from the Pentagon. But the committee chairwoman, Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, says she’s most looking forward to hearing from Maj. Gen. William Walker, commanding general of the D.C. National Guard, to hear his version of why it took as long as it did to get reinforcements to the Capitol on the day of the siege.
“He was in communication with the Capitol Police chief, but most significantly, he was on the call with the Department of Defense, so he can give his version under oath of exactly what happened there and why the delay occurred,” Klobuchar said on CNN last night.
After FBI Director Christopher Wray testified yesterday, Klobuchar said there is no longer any debate about what happened. “He made it very clear that this was a coordinated effort that was led by the Proud Boys extremist group.”
The focus now, Klobuchar says, should be on fixing the structural problems that led to the security and intelligence failures. “The Intelligence screw-ups, the fact that there’s a structure with the Capitol Police Board that required the chief — or he felt he had to call the sergeant-at-arms while they were in the middle of an insurrection to get permission. Why the DOD, Defense Department, waited so long that one afternoon when every minute counted to get the National Guard.”
The Senate hearing begins at 10 a.m., the same time Yogananda Pittman, acting chief of the U.S. Capitol Police, appears before a House subcommittee looking into the agency’s budget.
NOT TESTIFYING: The committee won’t be hearing from either of the two top Pentagon officials in charge the day of the Capitol riot: Chris Miller, the then-acting defense secretary, who told Vanity Fair in January he was anxious to explain to Congress what happened and called the criticism of a slow response “complete horses—,” and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, who told reporters yesterday the Pentagon reacted with “sprint speed” to the request for help.
Milley was speaking to reporters accompanying him on a trip to Colorado, and according to the Washington Post said critics are not taking into account the logistic of mobilizing additional forces on short notice.
“If the forces … were ready to go as part of the preparatory stuff, then I’d say, OK, that’s a fair assessment. But this is the D.C. National Guard that went from a cold start, and they had troops there in two and a half, three hours,” Milley said. “They reacted faster than our most elite forces from a cold start.”
DOD REPORT ID’S WHITE SUPREMACISTS, NOT ANTIFA AS BIGGER THREAT: Late yesterday, the Pentagon released a congressionally mandated report on the efforts by the Pentagon to weed out extremists who were trying to enlist in the U.S. military.
The Trump-era report, finished last summer and released, but not published until the fall, was prepared while Mark Esper was defense secretary and released publically after copies leaked to some media outlets.
The Report to Armed Services Committees on Screening Individuals Who Seek to Enlist in the Armed Forces concludes, “DoD is facing a threat from domestic extremists, particularly those who espouse white supremacy or white nationalist ideologies.”
“Despite a low number of cases in absolute terms, individuals with extremist affiliations and military experience are a concern to U.S. national security because of their proven ability to execute high-impact events,” the report says. “White supremacy or white nationalism groups, claim to have both active-duty service members and veterans as members,” which the report says “brings legitimacy to their groups’ militant causes” and “enhances their ability to push their agenda and attract recruits.” The report continues, “Access to service members with combat training and technical weapons expertise can also increase both the probability of success and the potency of planned violent attacks.”
There is only one reference to antifa in the 63-page document. In a listing of “known current or past military members” who were white supremacists or white nationalists, a U.S Army soldier who was arrested in 2019 for distributing information on social media related to explosives and weapons of mass destruction, was said to have discussed killing antifa members and targeting cell towers or a news station.
NO EVIDENCE OF ANTIFA AT THE CAPITOL: FBI Director Wray was pressed during yesterday’s Senate hearing about claims that some of the pro-Trump rioters were, in fact, antifa members in disguise.
“We have not to date seen any evidence of anarchist violent extremists or people subscribing to antifa in connection with the 6th,” Wray said. “That doesn’t mean we’re not looking, and we’ll continue to look. But at the moment, we have not seen that.”
Wray says so far, more than 300 suspects have been arrested in connection with the Jan. 6 attack. None was affiliated with antifa.
ALSO HAPPENING TODAY: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee meets at 10 a.m. for a hearing on the nominations of Wendy Sherman to be deputy secretary of state; and Brian McKeon to be deputy secretary of state for management and resources. https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/nominations
IT’S UNANIMOUS: The Senate Intelligence Committee voted today to send the nomination of William Burns to be CIA director to the full Senate for confirmation. The voice vote in committee had no “nays.”
“The overwhelmingly bipartisan vote in Ambassador Burns’s favor is a testament to the nominee’s unquestioned qualifications for the role, long experience in matters of national security, and laudable commitment to public service,” said Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, the committee chairman. “With our country facing so many challenges all around the globe, the men and women of the CIA deserve a Senate-confirmed director in place as soon as possible, and it is my hope that the Senate will move to confirm Ambassador Burns without any unnecessary delay.”
56 SUGGESTIONS FOR THE NDAA: The Heritage Foundation is out this morning with a new analysis of what could or should be in the 2022 National Defense Authorization Act.
“The best way forward for the country and for the military is to build on the bipartisan consensus on the challenges posed by China and Russia and properly prepare for those,” writes author Frederico Bartels, who provides 56 specific recommendations for Congress to consider.
While most experts expect the defense budget to remain flat next year, at around $740 billion, because of declining revenues and soaring deficits in part because of the trillions spent on coronavirus relief, Bartels makes a case for increasing the defense spending in line with the 3% to 5% growth recommended by a long line of military leaders.
“A 3% real growth rate from the $740.5 billion budget for FY 2021 would be a FY 2022 budget of $778 billion. A 5% real growth rate would equal $793 billion,” the report says. “Given the extraordinary fiscal pressures in 2021, DOD growth should be constrained to the lower end of the recommendations from military leaders. However, Congress should also plan on reducing spending growth over the next few years to prevent defense spending from putting additional pressure on the long-term financial position of the government.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: DHS warns Biden of crisis: Record 117,000 unaccompanied children expected at border this year
Washington Examiner: FBI director: Capitol siege was ‘domestic terrorism’
Washington Examiner: National Guard ‘well trained’ and ‘well equipped’ ahead of possible QAnon-pushed March 4 conspiracy protests
Washington Examiner: Biden gives Putin the Saudi treatment with new sanctions
Washington Examiner: Russia threatens sanction retaliation, saying US shouldn’t ‘play with fire’
Washington Examiner: US support for Ukraine ramps up seven years after Russian invasion of Crimea
Washington Examiner: Florida congressman says too many signs Biden is soft on China
New York Times: Domestic Terrorism Threat Is ‘Metastasizing’ in U.S., F.B.I. Director Says
CNN: Rep. Ronny Jackson made sexual comments, drank alcohol and took Ambien while working as White House physician, Pentagon watchdog finds
The New Yorker: Last Exit from Afghanistan
AP: Biden Brings No Relief To Tensions Between U.S. And China
Breaking Defense: Marines Downgrade Russia Threat To Focus on China
USNI News: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Wants $4.68B for New Pacific Deterrence Initiative
Reuters: Pentagon Concerned By U.N. Report Indicating Possible North Korea Nuclear Reprocessing
CNN: New Satellite Images Reveal North Korea Took Recent Steps To Conceal Nuclear Weapons Site
Defense One: Militias in Iraq Provide Security, Wield Political Power, and May Be Tearing the Country Apart
The Hill: Commissioners Tasked With Scrubbing Confederate Base Names Sworn-In At First Meeting
Bloomberg: Pentagon Wary Of Forcing U.S. Troops To Get Coronavirus Shots
Bloomberg: Hard Look at $246 Billion for New ICBMs Pledged by a Top Senator
Bloomberg: Pentagon, Lockheed Reach Final Agreement on F-35 Part Refunds
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 3
9 a.m. — National Press Club Newsmaker virtual discussion with Air Force Gen. John “Jay” Raymond, chief of space operations for the Space Force. https://www.press.org/events/headliners
9 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Asia Program webinar: “Partners Amid Uncertainties: The Way Forward in Taiwan-India Relations,” I-wei Jennifer Chang, research fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute; Sana Hashmi, visiting fellow at the Taipei Institute of International Relations; Michael Kugelman, senior associate for South Asia at WWC; and Shihoko Goto, senior associate for Northeast Asia in the WWC Asia Program. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event
10 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Homeland Security and the Senate Rules Committee joint hearing: “Examining The January 6th Attack On The U.S. Capitol, Part II,” with Melissa Smislova, senior official performing the duties of the under secretary, office of intelligence and analysis, Department of Homeland Security; Jill Sanborn, assistant director, FBI Counterterrorism Division, Maj. Gen. William Walker, commanding general of the D.C. National Guard, and Robert Salesses, senior official performing the duties of the assistant secretary of defense, homeland defense and global security. https://www.rules.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. — House Appropriations Legislative Branch Subcommittee hearing on “U.S. Capitol Police FY2022 Budget,” with Yogananda Pittman, acting chief of the U.S. Capitol Police. Livestream at https://youtu.be/3975tXJt8B8
10:30 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual book discussion on: The Spymaster of Baghdad, an account of how a covert Iraqi intelligence unit called “the Falcons” came together to defeat ISIS, with author Margaret Coker, investigative journalist and editor-in-chief, The Current. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group webinar: “The Defense Agenda,” focusing on the Biden administration’s priorities, as part of the New Agenda series https://newagendagemg.com/agenda
THURSDAY | MARCH 4
4 a.m. — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will address the College of Europe in Bruges (Belgium) on the topic: “NATO: keeping Europe safe in an uncertain world.” https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
9:30 a.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing for Colin Kahl to be under secretary of defense for policy. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov
10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace webinar: “Unraveling the Conflict in Syria,” with Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center; and Joby Warrick, reporter at the Washington Post and author of Red Line: The Unraveling of Syria and America’s Race to Destroy the Most Dangerous Arsenal in the World. https://carnegieendowment.org
11 a.m. — Back from the Brink and the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons virtual forum: “Ending Nuclear Weapons Before They End Us: Opportunities Under the Biden Administration to Take Action,” with former Acting Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas Countryman, chairman of the board of the Arms Control Association; Danny Hall, director of public affairs at Soka Gakkai International; Zia Mian, co-director of Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security; Michael Klare, professor at Hampshire College; Beatrice Fihn, executive director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons; and Denise Duffield, associate director of Physicians for Social Responsibility at Los Angeles. https://preventnuclearwar.org
11:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “The Future of ISIS,” with former Jordanian Minister of Youth and Culture Mohammed Abu Rumman, expert at the Politics and Society Institute; former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran and Iraq Andrew Peek, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; Borzou Daragahi, journalist and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; Mara Revkin, national security law fellow at the Georgetown University Law Center; and Banan Malkawi, Jordanian-American researcher and lecturer. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org
2 p.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Strategic Nuclear Modernization in the United States,” with Tom Collina, director of policy at the Ploughshares Fund; Franklin Miller, principal at the Scowcroft Group; Amy Woolf, specialist in nuclear weapons policy at the Congressional Research Service; Madelyn Creedon, nonresident senior fellow at Brookings; and Frank Rose, co-director of the Brookings Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology. https://www.brookings.edu/events
2:30 p.m. — American Enterprise Institute webcast: “A conversation with US Indo-Pacific Command’s Adm. Philip Davidson,” with Eric Sayers, visiting fellow, AEI; and Kori Schake, director, foreign and defense policy studies, AEI. https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation
FRIDAY | MARCH 5
10 a.m. — International Institute for Strategic Studies webinar: “Can Europe Defend Itself?” with Barry Posen, political science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Bastian Giegerich, director of defense and military analysis at IISS; Francois Heisbourg, senior adviser for Europe at IISS; and Dana Allin, senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy and transatlantic affairs at IISS. https://www.iiss.org/events
11 a.m. — Brookings Institution webcast conversation with House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., moderated by Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and co-director, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “Competing with China Through Budget Agility,” with Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategy, Integration and Requirements Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote; Michael Brown, director of the Defense Department’s Defense Innovation Unit; former Defense Deputy Undersecretary for Industrial Policy Bill Greenwalt, visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; former Defense Department Comptroller Elaine McCusker, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; and Dan Patt, adjunct fellow at the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology. https://www.hudson.org/events
1:50 p.m. — Jackson Institute for Global Affairs at Yale University Special Operations Forces Conference: “Artificial Intelligence and Big Data and its impact on SOF, Defence, and Great Power Competition, “ with Snehal Antani, chief technology officer within the U.S. Special Operations Command; Lt. Gen. Michael Groen, director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center; Chris Lynch, CEO of Rebellion Defense; and Charles Forte, chief information officer for the United Kingdom Ministry of Defence. https://yaleconnect.yale.edu/jacksonsofcon/home
3 p.m. — Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute virtual event: “Assessing the State of Our National Defense,” with former Secretaries of Defense Mark Esper and Leon Panetta, and former national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster. https://www.reaganfoundation.org
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 10
3 p.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual event: “Lessons from the West Capella Incident: Successful Naval Presence in the South China Sea,” with David Stilwell, former assistant secretary of state for east asian and pacific affairs; and Brent Sadler, Brent Sadler, senior fellow for naval warfare and advanced technology, Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/asia/event
THURSDAY | MARCH 11
11 a.m. — National Taxpayers Union and R Street Zoom webinar: “Pentagon Purse Strings Episode 3: An Interview with Lisa Hershman, former Chief Management Officer of the Pentagon,” with Jonathan Bydlak, R Street Institute; Andrew Lautz, National Taxpayers Union; Mark Cancian, senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program. https://rstreet-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We have not to date seen any evidence of anarchist violent extremists or people subscribing to antifa in connection with the 6th. That doesn’t mean we’re not looking, and we’ll continue to look. But at the moment, we have not seen that.”
FBI Director Christopher Wray, testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee Tuesday.
