NORTHROP GRUMMAN TO BUILD NEW ICBM: As Pentagon contracts go, this is a big one. The Air Force has picked Northrop Grumman to be the lead contractor to develop a new intercontinental ballistic missile to replace the aging Minuteman III by 2029, part of an ambitious plan to upgrade and modernize all three legs of America’s nuclear triad.
The $13 billion contract is for the engineering and manufacturing development phase of what’s been dubbed the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program, or GBSD. The decadeslong program is estimated to be worth at least $85 billion over its life and will involve hundreds of companies, including Aerojet Rocketdyne, Bechtel, Clark Construction, Collins Aerospace, General Dynamics, HDT Global, Honeywell, Kratos Defense and Security Solutions, L3Harris, Lockheed Martin, Textron Systems — essentially every major U.S. defense contractor except Boeing.
BIPARTISAN SUPPORT, FOR NOW: The $1.2 billion plan to rebuild the Cold War-era nuclear triad, which consists of land-based ICBMs, bombers, and submarines, enjoys bipartisan support in Congress and is fully funded in both the House and Senate versions of the National Defense Authorization Act.
But the land-based leg, which consists of some 400 ICBMs in silos spread across five western states, has long been in the crosshairs of arms control advocates, who argue that having three different ways to wage nuclear war is expensive overkill.
“Our nation faces major security challenges, including a global pandemic that has killed almost 200,000 Americans, and we shouldn’t spend our limited resources on new nuclear weapons that we don’t need and make us less safe,” said former Secretary of Defense William Perry, who has written a book, The Button, with fellow arms control advocate Tom Collina.
“The highest probability of starting a nuclear war is a mistaken launch caused by a false alarm and a rushed decision to launch nuclear-armed ICBMs,” Perry argues. “Instead of spending billions of dollars on new nuclear missiles we don’t need, we must focus on preventing accidental nuclear war.”
SMITH VERSUS THORNBERRY: The future of U.S. nuclear deterrence policy, and the fate of the triad, may rest on a fundamental divide exemplified by the thinking of Rep. Adam Smith, the Democratic chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, and his Republican counterpart, ranking Republican Rep. Mac Thornberry, according to Robert Soofer, deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy.
At a forum sponsored by the Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute last week, Soofer said the two House members represent the basic schools of thought on nuclear deterrence, which he called “simple and complex.”
Smith, he argued, falls into the first category, believing that deterrence can be achieved with a smaller number of nuclear weapons, while Thornberry believes that deterring Russia requires a more complex set of options.
For Smith, “nuclear deterrence and strategic stability are derived from mutual vulnerability and that for deterrence to be effective, one must make nuclear use as abhorrent as possible.” For Thornberry, “deterrence threats to be credible must take into account the views and capabilities of the adversary. And he sees a Russia that is expanding its tactical nuclear weapons capabilities, exercising a doctrine for limited first use, and is upon occasion threatening our allies with nuclear strike.”
ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES: Soofer does not anticipate any change in America’s commitment to the three-legged triad unless there is a significant shift in Congress after the November election, especially as the cost of modernization goes up.
“There’s more opportunity for those that take a more simple approach to deterrence, as opposed to complex, to argue, ‘Well, we can’t afford this. We don’t need the ICBM leg, you know, we’re going to modernize. … Let’s take care of the submarine first, maybe do the bomber, and then push the ground-based system out to the side.”
“I don’t foresee that occurring under a Trump administration over the next four years, but if there were to be a new administration, depending on who is appointed in a position of authority to make these decisions, you may have these types of discussions,” Soofer said.
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Tyler Van Dyke. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Mark Esper headlines this morning’s Department of Defense virtual Artificial Intelligence Symposium and Exposition. Esper speaks at 11:45 a.m. in keynote remarks that will be livestreamed at https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events.
Also speaking at this event are Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Gen. John Hyten (9:30 a.m.), Acting Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering Michael Kratsios (11 a.m. EDT), and acting Joint Artificial Intelligence Center Director Nand Mulchandani (9:15 a.m.), among others.
ALSO TODAY: Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun testifies behind closed doors before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to provide an update on Eastern Europe.
JUST LIKE IKE: White House chief of staff Mark Meadows told reporters on Tuesday that they are misinterpreting President Trump’s comments about top people at the Pentagon as attacks on Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley.
“Those comments are not directed specifically at them as much as it is at what we all know happens in Washington, D.C.,” Meadows said.
On Monday, Trump said, “I’m not saying the military is in love with me. The soldiers are. The top people in the Pentagon probably aren’t because they want to do nothing but fight wars so that all of those wonderful companies that make the bombs and make the planes and make everything else stay happy.”
“So that comment was more directed at the military-industrial complex,” Meadows said. “This president is consistent about one thing. If we’re going to send our sons and daughters abroad to fight on our behalf, he’s not going to let some lobbyists here in Washington, D.C., just because they want a new defense contract, suggest they need to stay abroad one minute longer than they should.”
Later, Trump retweeted multiple posts comparing him to President Dwight Eisenhower, who in 1961 said: “This conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience.”
One follower noted, “Unprecedented except President Dwight Eisenhower said the exact same thing in 1961. And he was absolutely right.”
ARMY CHIEF: COMBAT ‘LAST RESORT’: “I can assure the American people that the senior leaders would only recommend sending our troops to combat when it is required in national security and in the last resort,” said Army chief of staff Gen. James McConville when asked about the president’s comments during a virtual discussion hosted by Defense One.
“I’m talking about generals. I’m talking admirals. I’m talking sergeant majors — many of these leaders have sons and daughters that serve in the military. Many of these leaders have sons and daughters who have gone to combat or may be in combat right now,” McConville said. “We take this very, very seriously in how we make our recommendations.”
‘TRUMP IS THE MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX’: “There’s only one problem with Trump’s latest defense: It’s pure fantasy,” argued the left-leaning group National Security Action. “Trump has consistently prioritized the financial interests of America’s defense contractors.”
“Trump’s current Defense Secretary, Mark Esper, is a former Raytheon lobbyist. Esper replaced Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, a former Boeing executive. A former Lockheed Martin executive, Ryan McCarthy, now serves as Secretary of the Army,” the group said in a news release, which also quoted the late Sen. John McCain.
“I would be remiss if I did not reiterate my concerns about the number of nominees from the defense industry filling out the leadership ranks at the Department of Defense,” McCain said in 2017, when he was chairman of the Armed Services Committee.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: G-7 and Pompeo denounce Alexei Navalny’s ‘confirmed poisoning’ despite Trump’s uncertainty
Washington Examiner: Belarus dictator admits he may have kept power ‘for a bit too long’ as protests continue
Washington Examiner: Navy calls off search for USS Nimitz sailor lost at sea in Persian Gulf
Washington Examiner: ‘Make it 21’: On-the-record denials pile up against Atlantic report claiming Trump insulted soldiers
Washington Examiner: Trump’s alleged military and veteran comments dismissed by Heritage Foundation: ‘It’s much ado about nothing’
Defense One: From Racism To Russia, Top General Says Army Must Change
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Is Offered New Bases in Pacific
Asia Times: China Flexes New Dual-Carrier Prowess At U.S.
Business Insider: China Is The World’s Biggest Shipbuilder, And Its Ability To Rapidly Produce New Warships Would Be A ‘Huge Advantage’ In A Long Fight With The US, Experts Say
Reuters: Indonesia To U.S., China: Don’t Trap Us In Your Rivalry
AP: Lavrov: Russia Ready To Help Ease Turkey-Greece Tension
Breaking Defense: U.S., NATO Warships Exercise Off Russia’s Arctic Coast
AP: State TV: Iran Constructing New Building Near Nuclear Site
National Defense Magazine: Air Force Sets Sight on Reaper Drone Replacement
Military Times: ‘I Sought Help When I Needed It’: Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Speaks Out On Mental Health
Washington Post: He saved scores of lives on D-Day. Lawmakers say he was passed over for the Medal of Honor because he was Black.
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Decoding China’s new letter to America
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 9
8:15 a.m. — Defense News virtual 2020 Conference, with Assistant NATO Secretary-General for Defence Investment Camille Grand; Gregory Kausner, executive director for international cooperation, Office of the Defense undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment; Karl-Heinz Kamp; Air Force Maj. Gen. William Liquori, director of strategic requirements, architectures and analysis at the U.S. Space Force Headquarters; Air Force Lt. Gen. Michael Plehn, deputy commander of the U.S. Southern Command; House Armed Services ranking member Mac Thornberry, R-Texas; Defense Undersecretary for Acquisition and Sustainment Ellen Lord. https://conference.defensenews.com
9 a.m. — Department of Defense Artificial Intelligence Symposium and Exposition, with Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Gen. John Hyten at 9:30 a.m.; Katharina McFarland, National Security Commission on AI at 10 a.m., Lauren Knausenberger, Air Force Chief Information Officer at 10:30 a.m.; Michael Kratsios, acting undersecretary of defense for research and engineering at 11 a.m.; and Defense Secretary Mark Esper at 11:45 a.m. https://www.ai.mil/ai2020.html Full agenda at https://www.ai.mil/docs.
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Mt. Fuji D.C. Event: The U.S.-Japan Alliance at 60,” with Japanese Defense Minister H.E. Kono Taro and Michael J. Green, CSIS senior vice president for Asia and Japan. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
9 a.m. — Billington CyberSecurity virtual summit with Senate Intelligence Vice Chair Mark Warner, D-Va.; Pentagon CIO Dana Deasy; Air Force Lt. Gen. Bradford Shwedo, director for command, control, communications and computers/cyber and CIO at the Joint Staff; Australian Maj. Gen. Marcus Thompson, head of information warfare at the Australian Defence Force; and Wendy Noble, executive director of the National Security Agency. https://web.cvent.com/event
9:15 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute webcast, “The crossroad of competition: Countering the rise of violent extremists and revisionist powers in Africa,” with Air Force Maj. Gen. Dagvin Anderson, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command Africa; and Frederick Kagan, director, Critical Threats Project, AEI. https://www.aei.org/events/the-crossroad-of-competition
10 a.m. — Air Force Association Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies webcast: “Nuclear and Missile Defense, with Moshe Patel, director of the Israeli Missile Defense Organization. https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/aerospace-nation.
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “U.S. Policy in the Middle East,” with Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker. https://www.brookings.edu/events
10 a.m. — U.S. Army virtual xTech 3 Summit, showcasing the Army’s innovative technologies from more than 250 unique small businesses that have been incubated through the xTechSearch program since 2018. Open to the public. Register at http://www.xtech3summit.eventbrite.com.
1:30 p.m. — Air Force Brig. Gen. Chad Raduege addresses the Defense Strategies Institute “Military Tactical Communications Summit” webcast. http://tacticalcommunications.dsigroup.org
3:30 p.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee hearing on S.785, the “Leading the Way to Comprehensive Mental Health Care and Suicide Prevention for Veterans,” with Katie Purswell, deputy director of health policy for the American Legion; Jeremy Butler, CEO of Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America; Jim Lorraine, president and CEO of America’s Warrior Partnership; and Matthew Kuntz, executive director of NAMI – the National Alliance on Mental Illness. http://veterans.senate.gov
4 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar “Countering New Threats to the Homeland: The Future of the Department of Homeland Security,” with former Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, co-founder and executive chairman of the Chertoff Group; former Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, professor of public policy at the University of California at Berkeley; former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, partner at Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP; former Deputy Assistant DHS Secretary for Counterterrorism Policy Thomas Warrick, nonresident senior fellow at Forward Defense; and former Assistant DHS Secretary for Infrastructure Protection Caitlin Durkovich, non-resident senior fellow at Forward Defense. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/future-of-dhs-report-launch/
5 p.m. — United States Institute of Peace webinar: “A New Direction for U.S. Policy on North Korea.” with Christine Ahn, founder and executive director of Women Cross DMZ; Suzanne DiMaggio, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP); Markus Garlauskas, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; Van Jackson, senior lecturer in international relations at Victoria University of Wellington; Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program; and Frank Aum, senior expert on North Korea at USIP. https://www.usip.org/events/new-direction-us-policy-north-korea
THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 10
8:45 a.m. — Defense Strategies Institute “Military Tactical Communications Summit” webcast, with Army Col. Stephen Hamilton, chief of staff of the Army Cyber Institute delivering remarks at 11 a.m. http://tacticalcommunications.dsigroup.org/
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “The Capital Cable” with Gen. Robert Abrams, commander of United Nations Command, ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command, and U.S. Forces Korea. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
9:30 a.m. — Institute for Corean-American Studies virtual fireside chat: “U.S. Leadership in Asia,” with retired Marine Gen. John Allen, president, Brookings Institution. https://www.icasinc.org
10 a.m. — Washington Post Live webinar with U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison, on “the emerging challenges facing NATO.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-live
11 a.m. National Defense Industrial Association Women in Defense Leadership Symposium, with Janice Glover-Jones, chief diversity, equality and inclusion officer at the Defense Intelligence Agency; Valerie Hunter, vice president for human resources and administration at BAE Systems; and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger delivers keynote remarks at 4 p.m. https://www.womenindefense.net/events
1 p.m. — Heritage Foundation webinar: “The Enemy Within: The Security Risks of U.S. Law Enforcement’s Use of Chinese Drones,” with Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; Brendan Groves, head of regulatory and policy affairs at Skydio Inc.; retired New York City Police Lt. Art Mogil; John Venable, Heritage senior research fellow for defense policy; and Lora Ries, Heritage senior research fellow for homeland security. https://www.heritage.org/homeland-security/event
4 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “How Ike Led: The Principles Behind Eisenhower’s Biggest Decisions,” with author Susan Eisenhower, granddaughter of Dwight Eisenhower and president of the Eisenhower Group. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
FRIDAY | SEPTEMBER 11
9:45 a.m. — Memorial service at Flight 93 National Memorial near Shanksville, Pa. to commemorate the 19th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Both President Trump with first lady Melania Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with his wife, Jill Biden, are scheduled to participate in events.
MONDAY | SEPTEMBER 14
9 a.m. — Day one of the Air Force Association 2020 Virtual Air, Space & Cyber Conference, with Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett; Gen. Timothy Ray, commander, Air Force Global Strike Command; Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander, Pacific Air Forces; Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, commander, U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Africa. Full agenda at: https://www.afa.org/events/calendar/2020-09-14/air-space-cyber-conference
TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 15
9 a.m. — Day two of the Air Force Association 2020 Virtual Air, Space & Cyber Conference, with Chief of Space Operations Gen. Jay Raymond; Will Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, technology and logistics; and others. Full agenda at: https://www.afa.org/events/calendar/2020-09-14/air-space-cyber-conference
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council webinar with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on his recent trip to Central and Eastern Europe. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
1 p.m. Rayburn 2118 — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Addressing the Legacy of Department of Defense use of PFAS: Protecting Our Communities and Implementing Reform,” with Maureen Sullivan, deputy assistant secretary of defense acquisition and sustainment; Terry Rauch, acting deputy assistant secretary of defense health readiness and policy oversight; Herb Nelson, director, Strategic Environment Research and Development Program. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
3 p.m. — Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute virtual launch of the new Center for Freedom and Democracy. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers keynote remarks, followed by a panel discussion “Retooling Westminster: Advancing Freedom in the 21st Century.” with Reagan Institute Director Roger Zakheim, Amb. Mark Green and Kenneth Wollack with the National Endowment for Democracy. https://www.reaganfoundation.org/programs-events/events-calendar/
WEDNESDAY | SEPTEMBER 16
2 p.m. — McCain Institute “Authors & Insights Book Talk Series”: “Foreign Policy Crossroads: Where We Are and How We Got Here,” with former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, author of Hell and Other Destinations: A 21st Century Memoir, and Mark Green. https://asu.zoom.us
THURSDAY | SEPTEMBER 17
1 p.m. Rayburn 2118 — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Emerging Threats and Capabilities hearing: “Interim Review of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Effort and Recommendations,” with Eric Schmidt, chairman, National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Robert Work, vice chairman, National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence; Mignon Clyburn, commissioner, National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence; José-Marie Griffiths, commissioner, National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“This president is consistent about one thing. If we’re going to send our sons and daughters abroad to fight on our behalf, he’s not going to let some lobbyists here in Washington, D.C., just because they want a new defense contract, suggest they need to stay abroad one minute longer than they should.”
White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, insisting President Trump’s Monday comment about the Pentagon wanting to fight wars to keep defense contractors happy, was aimed at the military-industrial complex, not Pentagon leaders.
