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SHANAHAN’S PREDICAMENT: Welcome to the world of Patrick Shanahan, the acting defense secretary who has the authority to lead the Pentagon but no power to change the disruptive policies of his boss, President Trump. While Trump’s inclination to end “endless” wars has won praise from war-weary lawmakers like Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., there is bipartisan opposition in Congress to his plan to pull all U.S. troops out of Syria and deep reservations among America’s allies in the fight against ISIS. The divisions were laid bare at last weekend’s Munich Security Conference, at which Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., fuming with frustration, dropped an a F-bomb in a tense closed-door exchange with Shanahan, attended by other members of the U.S. congressional delegation. “Are you telling our allies that we are going to go to zero by April 30?” he asked Shanahan, according to Graham’s own account, as related by Josh Rogin in the Washington Post. When Shanahan replied, “Yes, that’s been our direction,” Graham then responded, “That’s the dumbest fucking idea I’ve ever heard.” Graham, who has warned that a “precipitous” U.S. withdrawal from Syria would allow ISIS to regroup, Turkey to slaughter the Kurds, and Iran to fill the vacuum, told Shanahan point blank, “If the policy is going to be that we are leaving by April 30, I am now your adversary, not your friend.” When asked for comment on the report, Graham’s office did not dispute the account. LIKE A DEER IN THE HEADLIGHTS: Rogin, who was traveling on the same plane as Graham’s delegation, appeared on CNN yesterday and described the “chaos” at the conference, usually a sedate forum where ideas are exchanged in an almost academic setting. “Lindsey Graham is running around the conference trying to get European governments to commit to sending troops to Syria. And the whole scheme is if the Europeans commit troops, then maybe Trump will leave some troops. That’s Lindsey Graham’s idea, to leave Syria with honor without having ISIS return or the Turks attacking the Kurds, et cetera,” said Rogin. “Then here comes Patrick Shanahan, our acting secretary of defense, rolling in from Afghanistan and Iraq, and he meets with congressmen and senators and they ask him, ‘OK, are you on board with this?’ And he says, ‘Well, the president told me we’re getting out, I think we’re getting out.’ And Lindsey Graham goes off on him. “Not only Lindsey Graham, all of the other congressmen and senators, and this meeting just becomes everybody screaming at Patrick Shanahan. Like, hey, we can’t do this, you got to help us convince the president. You’ve got to help us sell this thing. And Patrick Shanahan stands there, quote/unquote, like a deer in the headlights.” THE ALLIES ARE REVOLTING: The other members of the counter-ISIS coalition have made it clear that if the United States abandons the fight, they will too. “So they’re like, if you go, we go. But if you stay, then we stay,” said Rogin. Great Britain and France are the only other two countries with troops on the ground, and both have ruled out backfilling for U.S. troops. “There is no prospect of British forces replacing the Americans,” said British foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt this week. Allies have “unanimously” told the United States that they “won’t stay if you pull out,” a senior administration told the Washington Post. “For Graham and people like Graham all over Congress, they’re like, OK, well that’s reasonable, you know, but the problem is that inside the administration it’s just chaos,” said Rogin. “And Patrick Shanahan is like an acting deputy, right. He’s auditioning for the job. He doesn’t have the power. Yet all the military guys, they really want to stay but they’re not supposed to say that. Because they’re supposed to salute and just do what the president says.” WHO WANTS TO BE SECDEF? All of which underscores another problem. Who would want the job in which. as Jim Mattis found, your advice is neither sought nor followed and in which you are forced to defend policies that go against everything your own senior military commanders advise and alienate America’s closest allies? I’ve written before how otherwise qualified candidates to succeed Mattis have taken themselves out of the running, either because they disagree with Trump’s Syria and and Afghanistan policies (people like Graham, Sen. Tom Cotton, and former Army Vice Chief retired Gen. Jack Keane) or simply because working for a mercurial boss in what is likely to be a short-term assignment that ends badly is just not a very attractive prospect. It’s why I’ve suggested Shanahan is likely to stay in the job and may be nominated to fill it on a “permanent” basis. It’s all wrapped up nicely in a piece by Lara Seligman in Foreign Policy, whose sources confirm that Shanahan is the top candidate, because basically no one else wants the job. “Shanahan possesses the qualities most important to the president and his top advisors,” writes Seligman, “loyalty and compliance.” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, national security adviser John Bolton, and acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney all like Shanahan “because he has no policy experience and won’t challenge them,” a former senior administration official tells Seligman. “The White House is happy to keep Shanahan as acting. With him at the helm, there is no chance of any resistance from DoD.” IN HIS DEFENSE: Despite reservations among some in Congress (Armed Services chairman Sen. James Inhofe says he lacks “humility”), Shanahan would likely be confirmed if nominated. “Shanahan is a gifted engineer and problem solver. The president likes him, and the president’s inner circle of policy advisers prefer a Pentagon head who does not have strong ideological or geopolitical convictions,” said Loren Thompson, COO of the Lexington Institute, which is funded in part by many of the nation’s leading defense contractors. “Based on his performance at Boeing, I think Shanahan can run a tight ship at the Pentagon while getting along with the president. And if the president nominates him, all of the GOP senators will likely support him for confirmation, including Inhofe,” he said. “Shanahan has a tough role in that he is trying to defend the president’s policy against a bipartisan coalition that opposes it. They are shooting the messenger,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Still, there are a lot of things that Shanahan might talk about to mitigate the effects of a troop withdrawal, such as providing supplies and training to friendly insurgent groups, strengthening U.S. forces in the region, perhaps in Iraq, and continuing to apply airpower using airborne sensors and local spotters.” Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. |
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TRAGEDY AVERTED: We learned last night that a 49-year-old active duty Coast Guardsman, a longtime neo-Nazi and self-described white supremacist, was plotting to attempt to set a new record for mass murder. Fifteen weapons and more than 1,000 rounds of ammunition were found in the basement of Lt. Christopher Paul Hasson’s Silver Spring, Md., apartment, along with a chilling manifesto. In the “deletions” subfolder under the “recoverable items” folder on his computer, law enforcement officials found a draft email from June 2017, in which he wrote: “I am dreaming of a way to kill almost every last person on the earth. I think a plague would be most successful but how do I acquire the needed/Spanish flu, botulism, anthrax not sure yet but will find something. Interesting idea the other day. Start with biological attacks followed by attack on food supply. . . Have to research this. Two pronged attack seems it might be more successful. Institute a bombing/sniper campaign.” “The defendant intends to murder innocent civilians on a scale rarely seen in this country. He must be detained pending trial,” wrote prosecutors in a pretrial detention memo. Based on the Internet searches he conducted, these were the people on his hit list: Congressional leadership:
Presidential hopefuls:
Trump critics:
Liberal media:
Hasson is due to appear in court today. “We are all safe. And we thank the Coast Guard and law enforcement for stopping this in time,” Lemon said on CNN Tonight. But he added that “we need to talk about why. Once again, critics of the president are being targeted with violence. … These things don’t happen in a vacuum. The president’s words matter. Just look at the suspect’s list of targets.” PUTIN’S THREAT: In an address to the Russian parliament yesterday, President Vladimir Putin says he will aim new weapons at “decision centers” if the United States deploys new intermediate-range missiles in Europe, after the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty expires in six months. “Russia will be forced to create and deploy weapon systems, which can be used not only against the territories from which this direct threat would be projected, but also against those territories where decision centers are located, from which an order to use those weapons against us may come,” said Putin, speaking in a state-of-the-nation address. Putin continues to reject the U.S. claim that Russia is violating the 1987 INF Treaty, accusing the Trump administration of making false accusations against Russia to justify its decision to withdraw from the Cold War-era agreement. Putin said Russia will not be the first to deploy new missiles in Europe but warned that it will retaliate if the United States puts such missiles on the continent. CLIMATE CHANGE? The White House will launch a committee examining whether climate change jeopardizes national security, led by National Security Council senior director William Happer, a climate change denier who once compared carbon dioxide to Jews under the Holocaust. Happer, who previously taught physics at Princeton University, has argued that carbon dioxide emissions that scientists claim are causing global warming are in fact good for the planet and told CNBC in 2014 that the “demonization of carbon dioxide is just like the demonization of the poor Jews under Hitler.” The Presidential Committee on Climate Security will be set up by an executive order from President Trump, the Washington Post reports — a move that comes after Trump has dismissed various government reports indicating that climate change is a national security risk. WHO WANTS TO BE SECDEF, PART 2: In that Foreign Policy article, Lara Seligman reports the Trump administration formally offered the secretary of defense job to former Sen. Jon Kyl and the director of national intelligence, Dan Coats, in addition to Sens. Graham and Cotton. Graham’s spokesperson said the South Carolina senator has “repeatedly, publicly said he has ZERO interest in any Administration job,” and Cotton’s spokesperson did not respond to the magazine’s request for comment. Meanwhile, Kyl declined to comment. Two sources close to Coats or his staff said he had declined the offer, but a spokesperson for the office of the director of national intelligence denied the White House had approached Coats. “The White House has not discussed this position with the DNI,” the spokesperson said. GITMO WATCH: Longtime reporter Carol Rosenberg, who has made a career out of bearing witness to what goes on at the U.S. prison camp at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, is leaving the Miami Herald and joining the New York Times. “Rosenberg has covered Guantánamo for The Miami Herald since before the arrival of the first detainees, in early 2002, and in recent years has been the only journalist covering the Guantánamo beat on a nearly full-time basis,” said an announcement from the Pulitzer Center, which is partially underwriting her award-winning reporting. “Carol understands the place deeply. We believe Guantánamo will continue to be a major story. Eventually there may be trials. And in the meantime it remains one of the most powerful legacies of America’s war on terrorism. We’re very grateful that Carol’s work at The Times will be supported by the Pulitzer Center,” said a statement from the New York Times. THE RUNDOWN Washington Examiner: In anti-US speech, Putin announces mysterious laser weapon will go ‘on standby alert’ NBC News: Pentagon chief briefing irks lawmakers, draws expletives from Sen. Lindsey Graham Washington Examiner: ‘It’s nobody’s lake’: US admiral warns China and Russia over Arctic Fox News: Sniper ‘killed 250 ISIS fighters’ in battle that turned tide against terrorists New York Times: Threatening U.S., Putin Promises Russians Both Missiles and Butter Business Insider: With just $60 and internet access, researchers found and tracked NATO troops and even tricked them into disobeying orders New York Times: Alabama Woman Who Joined ISIS Can’t Return Home, U.S. Says Bloomberg: SpaceX Splits Six Military Launches With Rival Lockheed-Boeing Military Times: Pentagon’s special operations leader ‘disappointed’ over handling of light-attack program USNI News: Panel: Navy Advancing Tactics, Adding New Weapons to Boost Combat Lethality Newsweek: Scientists warn Trump’s Space Force could incentivize nations to build space weapons: ‘a profoundly bad idea’ Business Insider: Lockheed just unveiled the upgraded fighter jet it’s using to compete for a $15 billion contract with India New York Times: Is the Future of ISIS Female? Air Force Magazine: KC-46 Refuels a Stealth Aircraft for the First Time |
CalendarTHURSDAY | FEBRUARY 21 8:30 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. “Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Defense Roundtable Breakfast.” www.ndia.org 11 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “Gullible Superpower: U.S. Support for Bogus Foreign Democratic Movements.” www.cato.org 4:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “North Korea’s Changing Society in the Kim Jong Un Era.” www.sais-jhu.edu FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 22 10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. “Prospects for the Trump-Kim Vietnam Summit.” www.csis.org MONDAY | FEBRUARY 25 9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Avenue N.W. “Competing with Russia ‘Short of War’: How the US and NATO have Countered Russian Coercion Panel Discussion.” www.stimson.org TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 26 7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Breakfast with Ryan McCarthy, Under Secretary of the U.S. Army. www.ausa.org 10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Readiness and Seapower Subcommittee Joint Hearing: Naval Surface Forces Readiness: Are Navy Reforms Adequate? Witnesses: Adm. Christopher Grady, U.S. Fleet Forces Commander, and Adm. John Aquilino, U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander. www.armedservices.house.gov 10:30 a.m. Constitution Ave. and 23rd Street N.W. Dedication of the National Desert Storm and Desert Shield Memorial Site near the Lincoln Memorial, honoring the service and sacrifice of the U.S. and Coalition military personnel who liberated Kuwait from Iraq and defended Saudi Arabia in 1991. Scheduled speakers: Scott Stump, president and CEO of National Desert Storm War Memorial Association; Rep. Phil Roe, R-Tenn; Lt. Gov. Jenean Hampton, R-Ky.; retired Air Force Gen. Chuck Horner; Edward “Skip” Gnehm, former U.S. ambassador to Kuwait; and Abdullah Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, the Kuwaiti ambassador. Open to the public. 12:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. “Does the U.S.-Iranian Relationship Have a Future?” www.wilsoncenter.org 12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave N.E. “Modernizing the U.S. Sea-based Strategic Deterrent Force and the Need for 12 Columbia-class SSBNs.” www.heritage.org 2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee: INF Withdrawal and the Future of Arms Control: Implications for the Security of the United States and its Allies. Witnesses: Former Sen. Richard Lugar, Former NATO Amb. Alexander Vershbow, Paula DeSutter, former assistant secretary of state. www.armedservices.house.gov 2 p.m. 2212 Rayburn. House Armed Services Intelligence and Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee: Department of Defense Information Technology, Cybersecurity, and Information Assurance. Witnesses: Dana Deasy, Pentagon chief information officer, Lisa Hershman, acting DoD chief management officer, and Marine Brig. Gen. Dennis Crall, deputy principal DoD cyber adviser. www.armedservices.house.gov WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 27 10:15 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Rep. Seth Moulton, member of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces, will join Bryan McGrath, Hudson Institute’s deputy director of the Center for American Seapower, for a discussion on the future of the U.S. Navy and its role in American defense and foreign policy. Live streamed at https://www.hudson.org 11 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Drive. Expeditionary Warfare Division Annual Meeting. www.ndia.org 2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing on Transgender Service Policy. Panel 1: Dr. Jesse Ehrenfeld, Lt. Cmdr. Blake Dremann, Army Capt. Alivia Stehlik, Army Capt. Jennifer Peace, Army Staff Sgt. Patricia King, and Navy HM3 Akira Wyatt. Panel 2: James Stewart, performing the duties of under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness, and Vice Adm. Raquel Bono, director of the Defense Health Agency. www.armedservices.house.gov THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 28 8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. “Strategic National Security Space: FY 2020 Budget and Policy Forum.” www.csis.org 8:30 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Congress and the National Defense Strategy: A bipartisan conversation with congressional national security leaders. www.aei.org 9:30 a.m. Dirksen SD-G50. Nuclear Policy and Posture. www.armed-services.senate.gov SUNDAY | MARCH 3 10:30 a.m. 8900 Little River Turnpike, Fairfax. Breakfast discussion with rocket scientist behind Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system, Dr. Ari Sacher. jnf.org/vabreakfast WEDNESDAY | MARCH 6 10 a.m. Cannon 310. “The Way Forward on Border Security.” www.homeland.house.gov MONDAY | MARCH 11 7 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. www.carnegieendowment.org TUESDAY | MARCH 12 7 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference (Day 2). www.carnegieendowment.org |
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