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TRUMP QUESTIONS HIS OWN STRATEGY: The Afghanistan strategy President Trump announced in summer 2017 aimed to convince the Taliban the U.S. would not cut and run. That approach remains intact a year-and-a-half later, according to the Pentagon’s latest progress report to Congress — released the same day Defense Secretary Jim Mattis resigned. “The key to success remains sustained military pressure against the Taliban,” the December document said. “By convincing the Taliban that they cannot win on the battlefield, and credibly committing to a conditions based strategy, we have greatly increased the odds of concluding a settlement on terms favorable to the United States and Afghanistan.” Yesterday Trump couldn’t have made his impatience with that strategy and its lack of progress clearer, and he blamed Mattis, a key architect of the plan. “What’s he done for me? How has he done in Afghanistan? Not too good, not too good. I’m not happy with what he’s done in Afghanistan and I shouldn’t be happy,” Trump said during a 98-minute engagement with the media during a Cabinet meeting. “I wish him well, I hope he does well, but as you know, President Obama fired him and, essentially, so did I. I want results.” YOU CAN’T QUIT, YOU’RE FIRED: Mattis resigned on principle Dec. 20 and planned to stay until the end of February to allow for a smooth transition. But Trump, stung by the bipartisan reaction praising Mattis’ resignation letter and rebuking of the president, essentially “fired” him four days later, replacing him with Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, effective Jan. 1. That way Mattis would not represent the department at NATO or defend the budget before Congress in February, both venues where Mattis would no doubt be questioned about his deep policy differences with the president. LET OTHERS DO IT: As with Syria, Trump doesn’t think the U.S. should carry the overwhelming burden of distant wars that benefit other countries as much, if not more than, the United States. “Why isn’t Russia there, why isn’t India there, why isn’t Pakistan there? Why are we there, we’re 6,000 miles away?” And Trump mocked the contributions of some NATO and partner nations in fighting both the Taliban and ISIS. “When a country sends us 200 soldiers to Iraq or sends us 100 soldiers from a big country to Syria or to Afghanistan and then they tell me 100 times, ‘Oh, we sent you soldiers, we sent you soldiers’ — and that’s 1/100th of the money that they’re taking advantage of, they’re just doing that to make me happy or to make past presidents happy,” Trump said. “They’re involved in the Afghanistan War because they sent us 100 soldiers, and, yet, it’s costing us billions and billions of dollars.” “I could give you an example where I get along very well with India and Prime Minister [Narenda] Modi, but he’s constantly telling me he built a library in Afghanistan, OK? A library — that’s like — you know what that is? That’s like five hours of what we spend.” THE ENEMY OF MY ENEMY IS STILL MY FREAKIN’ ENEMY: Trump believes he has the common sense that some of his vaunted generals lack. “I think I would’ve been a good general, but who knows?” he said. “I’ll give you an example. So, the Taliban is our enemy, ISIS is our enemy. We have an area that I brought up with our generals four or five weeks ago where Taliban is here, ISIS is here and they’re fighting each other. I said, ‘Why don’t you let them fight? Why are we getting in the middle of it?’ I said let them fight, they’re both our enemies, let them fight.” Instead, Trump says, the U.S. goes in and ends up fighting both of them. “It’s the craziest thing I’ve ever seen.” BAD TIMING: Another tenet of the Afghanistan strategy is making sure U.S. diplomats negotiate from a position of strength. But by order, the Pentagon is set to start cutting the U.S. presence in Afghanistan in half from roughly 15,000 troops to about 8,000. A key demand of the Taliban in early talks is the withdrawal of all U.S. troops. The pullout plan hands the Taliban a major concession with no quid pro quo. AFGHANISTAN AT ‘IMPASSE’: Talks between special U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban representatives have raised hopes for a deal. But the latest Pentagon assessment posits the military stalemate remains and the U.S.-led NATO mission has slowed — but not stopped — the Taliban’s momentum. “The current military situation inside of Afghanistan remains at an impasse,” says a Pentagon report to Congress issued last month. “The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) remain in control of most of Afghanistan’s population centers and all of the provincial capitals, while the Taliban control large portions of Afghanistan’s rural areas, and continue to attack poorly defended government checkpoints and rural district centers.” Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Mark (@DavidMarkDC). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY: Congress will be gaveled back into session for the 116th time today, and with the Democrats now in control of the House, divided government returns to Washington. Not that it wasn’t divided before, since Republicans have an expanded majority in the Senate, up to seats to a 53-47 edge, but are still far short of the 60 votes needed to ram through legislation. House Democrats’ first order of business is sending is the Senate to reopen parts of the government closed for nearly two weeks and put off any decision on funding Trump’s border wall until next month. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Ky., has already said the effort won’t fly because he’ll block a vote on any plan that doesn’t have President Trump’s approval. At yesterday’s meeting in the White House Situation room, Trump wanted his Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen to lay out the case of why a better barrier at the border is needed. But Democrats, led by Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer, N.Y., and presumptive House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Calif., wanted only to argue for an end to the shutdown. “I was a little disappointed with, I would say, some on the other side,” said Rep. Kevin McCarthy R-Calif., afterward. “Once the secretary started, Sen. Schumer interrupted her, and they didn’t want to hear it. And they challenged some of the points the secretary made.” “Secretary Nielsen wanted to go over some very alarming numbers, things that are actually happening at the border, and what’s happened last year,” said Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., who becomes House minority whip Thursday. “Last year alone, there were 3,700 known or suspected terrorists that were stopped from entering this country.” McCarthy said another session with Democrats is set for tomorrow. “Hopefully Friday we’ll be able to get there.” THIS IS WHAT INTRANSIGENCE LOOKS LIKE: Like a page out of Dr. Seuss classic parable “The Zax,” neither side is budging over the $5 billion Trump wants for border wall construction. And both convinced of the rightness of their cause. Asked how long he’s willing to keep 25 percent of the government shutdown and 800,000 federal workers in limbo, Trump said, “As long as it takes. I mean look, I’m prepared. I think the people of the country think I’m right. I think the people of this country think I’m right.” In the White House driveway, Schumer was just as adamant Democrats would not acquiesce. “Today we gave them an opportunity to get out of that and open up the government as we debate border security. And to say to them, ‘Because he says he won’t sign it and use the government as a hostage, we should just give in?’ The American people don’t want that. That’s bad for our country, and that’s not the way to govern.” THIS IS WHAT COMPROMISE LOOKS LIKE: Meanwhile in a Fox radio interview, Sen. Lindsey Graham, an informal Trump adviser, urged the president to channel his 1987 bestseller “The Art of the Deal.” “The question is do the Democrats want a deal? If they want a deal, there will be one. If they want to continue to play politics there will not be one,” the South Carolina told host Brian Kilmeade. “I’ve been talking to a couple Democrats about trying to construct a deal, $5 billion for wall/border security, the Bridge Act giving work permits to the DACA population. The TPS Reform Program, people that came from Vietnam, Cambodia, other places that had war and natural disasters for the wall. That’s the deal that makes sense and I’m hoping that after this meeting they’ll start talking to us.” Trump tweeted last night, “I remain ready and willing to work with Democrats to pass a bill that secures our borders, supports the agents and officers on the ground, and keeps America Safe. Let’s get it done!” SHANAHAN SALUTES: Yesterday’s cabinet meeting marked the debut of Pat Shanahan as acting defense secretary, and during the White House session Trump called on Shanahan — who he said “such a pleasure to work with” — to bolster his case for the wall. Shanahan was happy to salute. “The threat is real,” Shanahan said. “The risks are real. We need to control our border.” Shanahan said the military plans to do more to help the DHS with the restoration of border fences and building out of additional mileage of the wall. “The Army Corps of Engineers is dialed in on doing this cost-effectively, quickly and the right amount of urgency, of where we can build stand up walls quickly.” Trump was clearly pleased with Shanahan, a sign perhaps his acting status could continue for an indefinite time. NO BOEING, PLEASE: One thing Trump loves about Shanahan is his business background and his record of 30 years as an ace plane-maker at Boeing. But now that he’s the top guy at the Pentagon, Shanahan is pledging to recuse himself from any DoD business involving his old employer. “Under his Ethics Agreement, Mr. Shanahan has recused himself for the duration of his service in the Department of Defense from participating in matters in which the Boeing Company is a party,” said Lt. Col. Joe Buccino, a spokesman for Shanahan. MORE TRUMP UNPLUGGED: In his one hour, 38-minute freewheeling session before the cameras yesterday, President Trump opined on a wide range of national security issues. Here’s a sample: Foreign aid, who needs it? “We’re giving away $54 billion in foreign aid. So, we give money to countries, but we don’t give money to our own country, which is another thing that I’ve been complaining about, and we’re cutting that back. It’s very unfair when we give money to Guatemala and to Honduras and to El Salvador, and they do nothing for us, when we give money to Pakistan, $1.3 billion. I ended that — a lot of people don’t know it — because they haven’t been fair to us. We want to have a great relationship with Pakistan, but they house the enemy, they take care of the enemy. We just can’t do that.” Syria four months? Okay whatever: “I know somebody said four months. But I didn’t say that either. I’m getting out. We’re getting out of Syria. Look, we don’t want Syria. Obama gave up Syria years ago when he didn’t violate the red line … So, Syria was lost long ago. It was lost long ago. And besides that, I don’t want — we’re talking about sand and death. That’s what we’re talking about. We’re not talking about, you know, vast wealth. We’re talking about sand and death.” (CNN is quoting an unnamed Pentagon official as saying four months is the minimum timeframe to realistically and safely extract the 2,000 U.S. troops and their equipment from Syria. The official reportedly said the new withdrawal plan is an attempt “to please the president and not get everyone killed.”) Another love letter from Kim: “I just got a great letter from Kim Jong Un. Those few people that I’ve shown this letter to have never written letters like this. This letter is a great letter. We made a lot of progress with North Korea and Kim Jong Un.” WHAT WAS KIM REALLY SAYING? The folks at 38 North, the North Korea monitoring site now affiliated with Stimson Center had been carefully reviewing Kim Jong Un’s New Year’s Day speech and think his between-the-lines message is that he’s hoping to play China off against the U.S. The key line — a warning that “we even might find ourselves in a situation where we have no other choice but to find a new way,” writes analyst Ruediger Frank. “Kim’s confidence stems from the expectation of growing and reliable support by China,” writes Frank. “I thus interpret Kim’s threat of ‘finding a new way’ not as a hint at more nuclear tests, but rather as a message to Donald Trump: You are not our only option for security and economic development. If you refuse to be cooperative, we will ignore you and turn to China. Oh, and we will take South Korea along.” WHO’S THE NEW SHANAHAN? With Patrick Shanahan elevated to acting secretary, the nameplate on his old office now has the name of the Pentagon Comptroller. “As Department of Defense Chief Financial Officer and Comptroller for the past 19 months, David Norquist has had insight into virtually every tenet of this department,” said Shanahan in a statement issued yesterday. “I have the greatest confidence in his abilities to lead a phenomenally talented team while performing the duties as Deputy Secretary of Defense.” JUMP, FELL OR WAS PUSHED: The active-duty two-star Marine general former Defense Secretary Mattis tapped to serve as the on-camera spokesman for the Pentagon asked not to take the job, after all, now that Mattis is gone, Pentagon officials say. One official said that in a meeting with Shanahan, Marine Maj. Gen. Burke Whitman gave five reasons why he preferred not to take the job, and that after considering the reasons, Shanahan agreed. Pentagon officials insisted that Whitman was not fired, but that his disposition toward accepting the post had changed. Whitman’s appointment as the face of the Pentagon was controversial because of the strong tradition for members of the U.S. military to remain apolitical, while the Pentagon’s spokesman job often requires defending or explaining administration policy. MEXICO’S NEW GUARD: Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced yesterday the government will recruit 50,000 civilians to serve in his country’s new National Guard. In his first press conference of 2019, Lopez Obrador said the move would “address the problem of insecurity and violence.” He also said the plan would be carried out over a period of three or four years. CRITICS REMAIN CRITICAL: The top counterterrorism official who served in former President Barack Obama’s White House warned yesterday that the current administration is failing to take national security seriously in terms of staffing in the West Wing. Lisa Monaco, who served as the White House homeland security and counterterrorism adviser from 2013-17, said the Trump administration’s changes to the White House’s approach to both counterterrorism and cybersecurity represent “very dangerous departures” from national security procedures. MARINE ID’D: The Marine who died from an apparent accidental discharge of a gun at the Marine Barracks early New Year’s Day has been identified as Lance Cpl. Riley S. Kuznia. Kuznia, 20, was stationed at the Barracks where he served as a team leader for Guard Company. Kuznia is from Karlstad, Minn. His personal decorations include the Global War on Terrorism Service Medal and the National Defense Service Medal. The shooting incident remains under investigation. THE RUNDOWN Breaking Defense: Acting SecDef Shanahan’s First Message: “China, China, China.” Los Angeles Times: U.S. Policy Toward China Shifts From Engagement To Confrontation AP: 4 ideas from NKorean leader Kim Jong Un’s New Year’s speech Washington Post: Trump’s bizarre history lesson on the Soviet Union, Russia and Afghanistan New York Times: The Army, in Need of Recruits, Turns Focus to Liberal-Leaning Cities Newport News Daily Press: Huntington Ingalls, Navy Reach Deal On Two-Carrier Purchase Forbes: Army’s Decision On Huge Helicopter Engine Program Will Impact GE, Honeywell, United Technologies War on the Rocks: So the president wants out of Afghanistan: What happens next? Washington Post: ‘I got to do what I got to do to be a Marine’: Mother recalls son killed at Marine Barracks AP: FACT CHECK: Trump’s claims on border, drugs, Mattis |
CalendarMONDAY | JANUARY 7 2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW. “Falling apart? The politics of New START and strategic modernization”. www.brookings.edu WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 9 4:30 p.m. 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington. National Veteran Small Business Coalition Dinner Meeting (DC Chapter). www.nvsbc.org. THURSDAY | JANUARY 10 7:15 a.m. NDIA Washington, D.C. Chapter Defense Leaders Forum Breakfast With General Mark Milley, 39th Chief of Staff, U.S. Army. http://www.ndia.org 10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW. “Maritime Security Dialogue: Maritime Priorities for the New Year from the Senior Enlisted Perspective”. www.csis.org FRIDAY | JANUARY 11 9 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW. “Japan’s New National Defense Program Guidelines: Alliance Strategies for the Third Post-Cold War Era”. www. http://carnegieendowment.org. 12:15 p.m. 740 15th St NW #900. “Seventeen Years of Guantanamo”. www.newamerica.org. MONDAY | JANUARY 14 3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Lessons from the Hawaii Nuclear Missile Scare. www.wilsoncenter.org WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 16 1 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW. “Securing maritime commerce — the U.S. strategic outlook” www.brookings.edu |
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