Congress returns to grapple with border security, amid threat of partial government shutdown

THEY’RE BACK! The House and Senate are back in session after a break for the November elections, which have emboldened Democrats to confront President Trump on some of his top priorities — including the billions he wants for his border wall. In a rare and somewhat surprising move, Congress wrapped up all of its defense policy and appropriations bills before the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30, funding 75 percent of the government, including the Pentagon. But money for some other agencies, including the Department of Homeland Security, runs out Dec. 7. That raises the prospect of a showdown and possible government shutdown, if Republicans try to push through funding for the border wall, before ceding power in the House to the Democrats in January.

TRUMP FRUSTRATED: In his post-election news conference last week Trump didn’t rule out a shutdown to secure funding for the wall. “We need the money to build wall — the whole wall, not pieces of it all over.” But he also said he “would like to see bipartisanship.”

“I speak to Democrats all the time. They agree that a wall is necessary. A wall is necessary. And as you know, we’re building the wall. We’ve started. But we should build it at one time, not in chunks,” he said.

NIELSEN NEXT TO GO: One more sign of the president’s displeasure with the current state of border security is a report in this morning’s Washington Post quoting aides as saying Trump is preparing to remove Kirstjen Nielsen as Homeland Security secretary. The report cites five current and former unnamed White House officials, and says Nielsen’s departure could occur in coming weeks, if not sooner. “Trump canceled a planned trip with Nielsen this week to visit U.S. troops at the border in South Texas and told aides over the weekend that he wants her out as soon as possible,” the Post reports.

GROWING TAB FOR THE TROOPS: Trump’s use of the active-duty military to “harden” the border is likely to saddle the services with hundreds of millions of dollars in costs. But the Pentagon says it still has no complete estimates of exactly how much the bill will be. The troops will spend the Thanksgiving holiday building barriers and stringing fences while avoiding any contact with migrants, who are still hundreds of miles away.

Without any official estimate, cost figures for 7,000 active-duty troops — and potentially more — have varied wildly from $60-$200 million, depending on the duration and number of troops.

Meanwhile, Trump’s deployment of 2,100 National Guard troops since April is expected to cost $182 million for the first five months. No public estimate for the mission this fiscal year has been released. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis renewed the Guard deployment in October and it could continue through much of next year. One of the biggest costs for the Pentagon could be Trump’s order that Mattis lead building of a 31-mile section of his border wall. The military estimates the 30-foot barrier along the Barry Goldwater bombing range, straddling the Mexico border near Yuma, Ariz., will cost $450 million.

BACK TO BUSINESS: With the midterms mostly in the rearview mirror, the first real order of defense business for Congress will occur this evening when senators vote to tee up the U.S. Coast Guard reauthorization bill.

Meanwhile, both chambers will also be welcoming new members following the election. House members-elect will be checking in today and are set for a class photo on the Capitol steps Wednesday. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will hold a photo-op with new senators in his office this morning at 9:15 a.m.

ARMED SERVICES DURING THE LAME DUCK: Since Congress wrapped up its defense policy and appropriations bills before the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30 it won’t wrangle over Pentagon funding or face any budget deadlines during the lame duck session. The House and Senate armed services committees already have a slate of hearings planned, including cybersecurity testimony on each panel Wednesday.

Here’s what the Senate Armed Services Committee has scheduled so far for the coming weeks:

  • Nov. 27: Eric Edelman, former ambassador to Turkey, and retired Adm. Gary Roughead, who served as the chief of naval operations, present the findings of the National Defense Strategy Commission. The comprehensive bipartisan review was ordered last year by the armed services committees.
  • Dec. 4: Nomination hearing for Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie to head U.S. Central Command and Army Lt. Gen. Richard Clarke to head U.S. Special Operations Command.
  • Dec. 5: A subcommittee hearing on Navy and Marine Corps readiness with Secretary Richard Spencer and Commandant Robert Neller.

McSALLY CONCEDES: It was a gracious and upbeat Rep. Martha McSally, wearing blue jeans and seated next to her Golden Retriever, who conceded the Arizona Senate race last night to her Democratic challenger Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. The race was called for Sinema after the latest vote count showed McSally behind by more than 38,000 votes out of more than 2.2 million ballots cast.

“Congrats to @kyrstensinema. I wish her success. I’m grateful to all those who supported me in this journey. I’m inspired by Arizonans’ spirit and our state’s best days are ahead of us,” McSally tweeted on her official campaign account, in which she said he had called Sinema with her congratulations.

‘WHO GONNA BRRRRT NOW?’ tweeted Military.com’s Oriana Pawlyk, noting “McSally was the main advocate for the A-10 Warthog in Congress (alongside Sen. John McCain). The A-10 just lost its best ally on the Hill.”  But wait, there’s more.

McSally may be down, but not out. The other Arizona Senate seat could, in theory, could go to McSally. Remember that Sen. Jon Kyl, who was appointed replace late Sen. McCain, said that he would serve only until January 2019. Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey will then have to make another appointment, who under state law must be a Republican. And McSally has just demonstrated that very nearly half the state’s voters wanted to send her back to Washington as a senator. Could happen. Is that why she was smiling in that concession video?

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY, GRIFFIN TALKS MISSILE DEFENSE: The Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a discussion about re-energizing U.S. missile defense with Michael Griffin, defense undersecretary for research and engineering, at 9:30 a.m. Check the CSIS website for possible live stream.

SECRET MISSILE SITES: North Korea has maintained a network of more than a dozen secret ballistic missile sites as it negotiates with the Trump administration over its nuclear weapons program, according to CSIS. The think tank said Monday it has identified 13 of about 20 suspected missile facilities as part of a new investigation. “These missile operating bases, which can be used for all classes of ballistic missile from short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) up to and including intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), would presumably have to be subject to declaration, verification, and dismantlement in any final and fully verifiable denuclearization deal,” CSIS reported.

The report casts new doubt on the administration’s claims that the North wants to abandon its nuclear program. The existence of the missile sites have been widely known but the CSIS report sheds greater light on the number and location. “To call this a ‘deception’ is deeply misleading. Kim Jong Un publicly stated that North Korea would shift to the mass producing nuclear weapons in 2018. These bases and their missiles are well-known, long-standing and have never been offered for dismantlement by the DPRK,” tweeted Jeffrey Lewis, a North Korea analyst and author of a book about war with the regime.

You can see all the imagery here.

F-35 BUY ON FASTER TRACK: Bloomberg is reporting the Pentagon is on track to make a much bigger buy of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters when the next order goes into Lockheed Martin. The report quotes Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, as indicating the contract for Lot 12 would be the largest to date with at least 250 aircraft.

“Even as the Pentagon seeks to accelerate contracts, the F-35 program has yet to complete year-long realistic testing mandated by Congress to assess its combat effectiveness against the most stressing threats. Those tests are scheduled to start this month,” the report notes.

VETERANS DAY, A DAY TO REMEMBER… how much other countries owe the United States for the protection it provides the rest of the free world. President Trump said yesterday he took advantage of his time in Paris for Armistice Day ceremonies to remind French President Emmanuel Macron and other world leaders that the U.S. will not continue bearing the financial burden associated with military treaties and trade agreements.

“Just returned from France where much was accomplished in my meetings with World Leaders. Never easy bringing up the fact that the U.S. must be treated fairly, which it hasn’t, on both Military and Trade. We pay for LARGE portions of other countries military protection hundreds of billions of dollars, for the great privilege of losing hundreds of billions of dollars with these same countries on trade,” Trump wrote in a series of tweets Monday morning.

TALIBAN WILL TALK, IF US WALKS: Afghanistan’s Taliban will negotiate with the central government in Kabul only after the United States agrees to leave the country, according to a senior Russian diplomat. Zamir Kabulov, Russia’s special envoy for Afghanistan, announced the Taliban’s demands on Monday after hosting an international summit on the country’s crisis that was attended by other members of a security bloc led by Russia and China. The Taliban want the United States to undertake a number of “confidence-building measures,” starting with a deadline for a full withdrawal from the country.

MATTIS’ BUSY DAY: Defense Secretary Mattis welcomes the Qatari Defense Minister  Khalid Al-Attiyah to the Pentagon at 11 a.m., and then at 3:30 p.m. he welcomes Poland’s Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak.

THERE’S METHOD IN TRUMP’S ALL-CAPS TWEETS: In an essay in the current issue of Foreign Policy, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo defended one of President Trump more inflammatory tweets, the one in which Trump threatened Iran with military action.

“To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!,” Trump tweeted July 22.

“With Iran and other countries, he has made it clear that he will not tolerate attempts to bully the United States; he will punch back hard if U.S. security is threatened,” Pompeo writes. “The all-caps tweet he directed at Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in July, in which he instructed Iran to stop threatening the United States, was informed by a strategic calculation: the Iranian regime understands and fears the United States’ military might.”

Pompeo argues that it was also Trump’s bombastic tweeting threatening “fire and fury,” that prompted North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to start serious talks about denuclearization. “Chairman Kim has felt this pressure, and he would never have come to the table in Singapore without it,” Pompeo argues. “The president’s own public communications themselves function as a deterrence mechanism.”

WHAT ABOUT THE MILITARY BALLOTS? President Trump tweeted yesterday that the Senate and governor’s races in Florida should be called and vote-counting stopped because of unsubstantiated allegations of fraud.

“The Florida Election should be called in favor of Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in that large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere, and many ballots are missing or forged. An honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!,” he tweeted.

One problem is that would disenfranchise members of the military who voted by absentee ballot from overseas. Under Florida law, those votes count so long as they’re postmarked by Election Day and received within 10 days of the election, which would be Nov. 16.

THE RUNDOWN

AP: After 17 years, many Afghans blame US for unending war

New York Times: Taliban Slaughter Elite Afghan Troops, and a ‘Safe’ District Is Falling

Bloomberg: Iran Sticks by Nuclear Limits Even After U.S. Oil Sanctions Bite

AP: Trudeau: Canadian intelligence has heard Khashoggi tapes

Business Insider: China’s most advanced stealth fighter shows off its weapons for the first time, revealing some serious heat

Daily Beast: Transgender Veterans: The VA Should Pay for Our Gender Transition Surgeries

Breaking Defense: US Army Pursues Israeli Robots

Defense One: Nukes, the New Congress, and the Lost Art of Political Compromise

Foreign Policy: Trump Waives Iran Sanctions for Turkey

Task and Purpose: This Army Veteran Is Running For President In 2020

Calendar

TUESDAY | NOV. 13

7:30 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. How Washington Works — Navigating the DoD. ndia.org

9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Reenergizing the Missile Defense Enterprise with Michael Griffin, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. csis.org

9:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. World order without America? Reflections on the U.S. global role on the centenary of Armistice Day. brookings.edu

10 a.m. 923 16th St. NW. The Battlefield of Today and Tomorrow: Cyber-Enabled Economic Warfare with B. Edwin Wilson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy, and others. Fdd.org

10 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. British Army Maj. Gen. Christopher Ghika, deputy commander for strategy and information, Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve, briefs the media by video teleconference. Streamed live on www.defense.gov/watch/live-events.

10 a.m. The Battlefield of Today and Tomorrow: Cyber-Enabled Economic Warfare. Fdd.org

11:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Ground Truth Briefing on Iran and the U.S.: New Confrontation, Accommodation, or Muddling Through? wilsoncenter.org

Noon. 1030 15th St. NW. Defending Sovereignty and Information Space. atlanticcouncil.org

3 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Intelligence Brief with James Clapper. carnegieendowment.org

WEDNESDAY | NOV. 14

7:30 a.m. 1401 Lee Hwy. Breakfast Series with Gen. Stephen Wilson, Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force. afa.org

7:45 a.m. 900 S Orme St. CyberSat 2018 Conference. cybersatsummit.com

9:30 a.m. 1100 G St. NW. POGO Pentagon Revolving Door Briefing. pogo.org

10 a.m. Russell 236. 2018 Report on War Costs Since 9/11 with Sen. Jack Reed. watson.brown.edu

11:30 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. Air and Missile Defense at a Crossroads: New Concepts and Technologies to Defend America’s Overseas Bases. csbaonline.org

2 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. How the United States is Building and Strengthening an Effective Counterproliferation Policy. heritage.org

2:30 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. The Dealmaker: Who will make peace happen? newamerica.org

3 p.m. Russell 222. Hearing on Department of Defense’s Cybersecurity Acquisition and Practices from the Private Sector. armed-services.senate.gov

3 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Interagency Cyber Cooperation: Roles, Responsibilities and Authorities of the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security with Kenneth Rapuano, Assistant Secretary of Defense. armedservices.house.gov

3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Putin’s System: Why It is Stable and Why It Will Fail Anyway. wilsoncenter.org

5 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Schieffer Series: Foreign Policy Issues Facing the Next Congress. csis.org

THURSDAY | NOV. 15

8 a.m. 900 S Orme St. CyberSat 2018 Conference. cybersatsummit.com

8:30 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. NDIA Small Business Quarterly Roundtable. ndia.org

8:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Transatlantic Forum on Russia. csis.org

8:30 a.m. Hart 902. The American Conservative Fifth Annual Foreign Policy Conference with Sen. Rand Paul and Rep. Ro Khanna. theamericanconservative.com

9:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. 2018 Korea Global Forum: Charting a Roadmap to Peace on the Korean Peninsula. wilsoncenter.org

10 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Indo-Pacific Currents: Emerging Partnerships, Rivalries, and Strategic Realities across Asia. stimson.org

10:45 a.m. 1401 Lee Hwy. NDIA Washington, D.C. Chapter Defense Leaders Forum Luncheon with Gen. Paul Selva, Vice Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff. ndia.org

Noon. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Defense One Summit with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson and Michael Griffin, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. defenseone.com

12:15 p.m. Losing a War in Afghanistan: Countering the Taliban and Understanding U.S. Policies. fdd.org

FRIDAY | NOV. 16

8 a.m. 900 S Orme St. CyberSat 2018 Conference. cybersatsummit.com

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Russian Nuclear Strategy after the Cold War. csis.org

10 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. Gold Star Families to Discuss Legal Action Regarding Murders of Three Green Berets at Air Base in Jordan. press.org

11 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Will America Remain the World’s Only Superpower? carnegieendowment.org

Noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Implications of U.S.-China Tensions in the Indo-Pacific. hudson.org

1:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Moon Jae-in and Inter-Korean Détente: Korea Strategic Review 2018. carnegieendowment.org

MONDAY | NOV. 19

11 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. Questions from CENTCOM on Achieving Peace in Afghanistan. usip.org

TUESDAY | NOV. 20

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Future of the Defense Budget. brookings.edu

QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The all-caps tweet he directed at Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in July, in which he instructed Iran to stop threatening the United States, was informed by a strategic calculation: the Iranian regime understands and fears the United States’ military might.”
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, writing in Foreign Policy, defending President Trump’s practice of tweeting threats to America’s adversaries.

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