Blue wave laps at the shores of the Pentagon

HOUSE DEMS SEIZE POWER: With their takeover of the House Tuesday, Democrats are now positioned to rein in defense spending and create a headache for President Trump as he pursues a Space Force and controversial policies such as restrictions on transgender military service. The new majority is also expected to turn the page on two years of unified Republican rule by naming Rep. Adam Smith, a staunch critic of the president and skeptic of big Pentagon budgets, the new House Armed Services Committee chairman next year.

It is poised to be a major shift after leadership by Rep. Mac Thornberry and the late Sen. John McCain on Congress’ armed services committees led to major hikes in defense spending, a big-ticket political win for Trump. Now, Democrats have the influence to redirect that spending, rethink Republican defense policies and launch an array of hearings on administration policies that were marginalized during their time in the minority. Here are some issues to watch:

  • Shrinking defense budget: In a surprise move, Trump has ordered the Pentagon to help slash the budget plan for next year from $733 billion to $700 billion in total defense spending. Smith has called this year’s $716 billion defense budget “too high” and warned that the money will not be available in the future due to recent tax cuts and a ballooning deficit. The two could come together, or at least not disagree, on paring back on military spending. “With Democrat control of the House there will be much less pressure on the president to increase defense spending,” said Andrew Hunter, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
  • Space Force failure to launch: The House shift also comes just as the Trump administration is set to send a proposal to Congress in February for the creation of the new Space Force military branch. Smith opposes the new service branch and the president’s plan could become a ripe target for the new Democrat majority. “Space Force is the victim of having been an idea advanced by President Trump, so I don’t even know that it will get a real hearing on the merits in the House,” said Thomas Spoehr, the director of the Center for National Defense at the Heritage Foundation.
  • Oversight and hearings: Majority Democrats are already focused on holding Trump to account. That could mean new hearings on controversial policies such as active-duty military at the border and how Defense Secretary Jim Mattis came up with his transgender policy, but also looking abroad. “My sense is that Democrats as a whole are interested in looking at some of the overseas missions and seeing if there might be some savings there because they seem to be skeptical of the top line for military spending. I think we will see a lot of oversight into how much Afghanistan and Yemen and Syria are costing us, also Africa missions, and what the value is,” said Kurt Couchman, the vice president of public policy at the Defense Priorities think tank.

HOW’D THEY FARE? Yesterday we noted that of the Senate Armed Services Committee’s committee’s 27 members, 12 were up for reelection. Here’s how they did. (Winners in bold)

Democrats:

  • Joe Donnelly (Ind.) lost to Republican Mike Braun 52.9 to 43.2 percent
  • Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) beat Chele Farley 66.6 to 33.4 percent
  • Martin Heinrich (N.M.) beat Mark Rich 53.8 to 30.8 percent
  • Mazie Hirono (Hawaii) beat Ron Curtis 71.1 to 28.9 percent
  • Tim Kaine (Va.) beat Corey Stewart 57 to 41.2 percent
  • Claire McCaskill (Mo.) lost to Republican Josh Hawley 51.5 to 45.5 percent
  • Bill Nelson (Fla.) is trailing Republican Gov. Rick Scott 50.2 to 49.8 percent in a race that’s too close to call, even though Scott has declared victory.
  • Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) beat Geoff Diehl 60.4 to 36.2 percent

Republicans:

  • Ted Cruz (Texas) beat Beto O’Rourke 50.9 to 48.3 percent
  • Deb Fischer (Neb.) beat Jane Raybould 58.1 to 38.3 percent
  • Roger Wicker (Miss.) beat David Baria 58.9 to 39.1 percent

Independents:

  • Angus King (Maine) beat Eric Brakey 54.3 to 35.6 percent

WHAT NOW? Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who credited Trump for the rare feat of picking up Senate seats in an off-year election, had a message for the newly empowered Democrats. “If they want to impeach President Trump, I’d give them some advice. Been there, done that with Clinton, didn’t work out for us. I would think twice about it. It will blow up in their face,” Graham said on Fox last night. “We have to find common ground with Democrats in the House. If they want to investigate Trump to death and try to impeach him, then it will blow up.”

TONE IT DOWN: Graham had some advice for Trump, too. “I think he said something right before the vote came in, that maybe tone does matter. President Trump has been a great commander in chief. The economy is humming, we are safer, we’re more prosperous. But style does matter, and sometimes it can drown out substance,” Graham said.

PELOSI: IMPEACHMENT NOT ‘UNIFYING’: Speaking on PBS last night, while the returns were still coming in, presumptive future House Speaker Nancy Pelosi insisted she not going to push for impeachment, as some members of her party are calling for. “It depends on what happens in the Mueller investigation, but that is not unifying,” Pelosi said. “And I get criticized in my own party for not being more in support of it, but I’m not. If that happens, it would have to be bipartisan, and the evidence would have to be so conclusive.”

But Pelosi, while calling for bipartisanship, did indicate the Democrats will use their majority in the House to investigate the president in a way Republicans have not. “Today is more than about Democrats and Republicans. It’s about restoring the Constitution’s checks and balances to the Trump Administration,” she said in a victory speech last night. “We will have accountability and we will strive for bipartisanship,” she added. “With fairness on all sides, we will have responsibility to find our common ground where we can, stand our ground where we can’t, but we must try.”

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

HAPPENING TODAY, THE COUNTING CONTINUES: There are still races that are too close to call, among them Arizona’s Senate contest, where Rep. Martha McSally has a slim 49.3 to 48.4 percent lead over Democrat Rep. Kyrsten Sinema. With 99 percent of the ballots counted, McSally, a former A-10 squadron commander, holds a 14,500 vote lead.

It’s one of four Senate races still undecided this morning, but if the trends hold it appears the Senate is heading for a split with 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, which would give the Republicans a little more breathing room in the event any moderates break ranks and vote with the Democrats.

In Montana, the lead keeps shifting between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican challenger Matt Rosendale, with Rosendale ahead 48.9 to 48.2 percent with 82 percent of the vote tallied as of 6 a.m. The two candidates are separated by about 2,100 votes. Tester, you will recall, drew the ire of Trump when his allegations against White House doctor Rear. Adm. Ronny Jackson effectively torpedoed Trump’s plan to make Jackson head of Veterans Affairs.

In Mississippi‘s Senate race, Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democrat Mike Espy are headed for a runoff in a special election. California had to pick from two Democrats, Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Kevin de Leon, after its “jungle primary,” in which the two top vote-getters move on to the general election. The AP is calling the race for Feinstein.

SEAL DIDN’T NEED SNL APPROVAL: The former Navy SEAL mocked by “Saturday Night Live” last weekend is headed to Washington after scoring an easy win in Texas’s 2nd Congressional District. Republican Dan Crenshaw, who lost an eye while serving in Afghanistan, beat Democratic opponent Todd Litton with 53.1 percent of the vote.

Though running in a relatively safe GOP seat, Crenshaw’s victory comes days after “SNL” castmate Pete Davidson compared him to “a hit-man in a porno movie” during the “Weekend Update” segment of the show. Crenshaw, who will replace outgoing Republican Rep. Ted Poe, wears an eye patch to conceal his injury.

“I’m sorry. I know he lost his eye in war, or whatever,” Davidson said. Crenshaw rebuked “SNL” last weekend in a tweet responding to Davidson’s joke. “Good rule in life: I try hard not to offend; I try harder not to be offended,” he wrote. “That being said, I hope @nbcsnl recognizes that vets don’t deserve to see their wounds used as punchlines for bad jokes.”

NORTH KOREA TALKS DELAYED: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was scheduled to meet with his North Korean counterpart Kim Yong Chol in New York tomorrow, but now the meeting is off. In a brief statement the State Department gave no reason for the postponement of the meeting, which was supposed to lay the groundwork for a second summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

The State Department said Pompeo’s meeting “will now take place at a later date” and the two sides would “reconvene when our respective schedules permit,” according to The Associated Press.

THE SHRINKING CARAVAN: More than 3,200 migrants who had been a part of caravans moving from Central America to the United States’ southern border have abandoned the group to either stay in Mexico or return to their home countries, according to the Mexican government.

The Interior Ministry reported 3,230 people have requested permission to stay in Mexico as refugees as of yesterday. Fewer than 2,700 people from that group have been given interim visitor documents, which allow them to work while in Mexico and waiting for COMAR, the country’s Commission for Refugee Aid, to decide whether they can permanently stay.

TARIFFS HURTING CHINA AVIATION BUSINESS: Trump’s trade war with China is hurting the Asian power’s once-burgeoning aviation industry, according to a top official at Airbus.

“This will have a negative impact on China’s aviation growth,” Xu Gang, chief executive of Airbus China, told reporters at a biennial air show in the country. “Nobody will be the winner of this kind of trade war.”

Trump and China have hit each other with billions of dollars worth retaliatory tariffs over the last year. Vice President Mike Pence has denounced Chinese regional aggression and intellectual property theft, while China has said the U.S. is undermining the multilateral global order that has facilitated its rise. But the air show and a parallel economic forum saw the communist power take a more modest and conciliatory tone.

GOP LAWMAKER CHIDES ADMINISTRATION: Trump’s administration missed a legal deadline for a second round of sanctions pursuant to Russia’s use of a chemical weapon in a high-profile assassination attempt this year, a top Republican complained Tuesday.

“It is unacceptable that the administration lacks a plan — or even a timeline — for action on the second round of mandatory sanctions required by U.S. law,” retiring House Foreign Affairs Chairman Ed Royce said as the deadline passed.

Pompeo’s team concluded in August that Russia had provoked punitive sanctions under U.S. law, due to the use of a chemical weapon to try to kill a former dole agent living in southern England. That same law, the Chemical and Biological Weapons and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991, grants a 90-day window in which Russia — which denies the charges — could abandon such weapons and invite international inspectors to prove it had done so. But the State Department “could not certify” Russian compliance with that law.

TWO GROUNDED FOR SKY PENIS: The Marine Corps said Tuesday it has grounded two of its aviators as it continues to investigate a penis-shaped flight pattern drawn over southern California by one of its aircraft last month. Any disciplinary or administrative action will not be taken until the completion of the probe into the looping phallic flight path by a T-34C Turbomentor, which was part of the 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing based out of Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in San Diego, Maj. Josef Patterson, a spokesman with the wing, wrote in an email to the Washington Examiner.

“The T-34C crew that are being investigated for flying a pattern resembling an obscene image are currently not flying pending the results of an ongoing investigation. Although not flying for the time-being, the two Marine Corps aviators are still providing vital squadron ground support functions,” Patterson wrote.

THE RUNDOWN

Defense News: Democrats’ big night brings big questions for defense policy

New York Times: Navy Completes Inquiry Into Strangling Death of Army Green Beret in Mali

Washington Post: Almost two years into Trump presidency, Pentagon’s revolving door still spins

AP: Iran officials mock, warn US over renewed sanctions

Wall Street Journal: Islamic State Left 200 Mass Graves in Iraq, U.N. Says

Bloomberg: U.S. Scraps Boeing Upgrade of Surveillance Plane’s Radar

Defense News: Don’t dumb down this US Army radar

Foreign Policy: In Cyberwar, There Are Some (Unspoken) Rules

Defense One: UK Plans a Decade of Weapons Purchases As Auditors Sound Warning Bells

Task and Purpose: Trump Should Follow His Instincts And End The War In Afghanistan

AP: NATO chief appeals for peace; Taliban kill 20 Afghan guards

Business Insider: The Marine Corps is having trouble holding on to recruits, and it’s now facing its highest recruiting goal in a decade

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | NOV. 7

6:45 a.m. 1250 South Hayes St. Special Topic Breakfast with Lt. Gen. Brian Beaudreault, Marine Corps Deputy Commandant for Plans, Policies and Operations. navyleague.org

8:45 a.m. 901 N Fairfax St. ISR and C2 Battle Management Conference. isrusa.iqpc.com

10:30 a.m. 2799 Jefferson Davis Hwy. National Submarine League Annual Symposium and Industry Update. navalsubleague.org

Noon. 1030 15th St. NW. How Iran Will Cope with U.S. Sanctions. atlanticcouncil.org

Noon. Howard University. Army Senior Leader Development Conference with Rep. Anthony Brown, Lt. Gen. Charles Luckey, Chief of Army Reserve, and others.

12:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Impact of War and Sanctions on the Russian Economy. sais-jhu.edu

THURSDAY | NOV. 8

7 a.m. 2799 Jefferson Davis Hwy. National Submarine League Annual Symposium and Industry Update. navalsubleague.org

9 a.m. 901 N Fairfax St. ISR and C2 Battle Management Conference. isrusa.iqpc.com

9:15 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Back to the (Army’s) future: A conversation with Army Secretary Mark Esper. aei.org

4:45 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Was the United States Ever Good at National Security Policy? with Kori Schake. sais-jhu.edu

FRIDAY | NOV. 9

9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. A Question of Time: Enhancing Taiwan’s Conventional Deterrence Posture. stimson.org

11 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Economic Security as National Security: A Discussion with Peter Navarro, Director of the White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy. csis.org

Noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Future of Navy Expeditionary Warfare with Maj. Gen. David Coffman, Director of Expeditionary Warfare for the U.S. Navy. hudson.org

Noon. House Visitor Center 201. Capitol Hill Forum on the Future of Federal Information Technology. lexingtoninstitute.org

6:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. NPC Headliners Book Event: Bill Lord Looks Back “50 Years After Vietnam.” press.org

TUESDAY | NOV. 13

7:30 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. How Washington Works – Navigating the DoD. ndia.org

9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Reenergizing the Missile Defense Enterprise with Michael Griffin, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. csis.org

9:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. World order without America? Reflections on the U.S. global role on the centenary of Armistice Day. brookings.edu

10 a.m. 923 16th St. NW. The Battlefield of Today and Tomorrow: Cyber-Enabled Economic Warfare with B. Edwin Wilson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy, and others. fdd.org

Noon. 1030 15th St. NW. Defending Sovereignty and Information Space. atlanticcouncil.org

WEDNESDAY | NOV. 14

7:30 a.m. 1401 Lee Hwy. Breakfast Series with Gen. Stephen Wilson, Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force. afa.org

11:30 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. Air and Missile Defense at a Crossroads: New Concepts and Technologies to Defend America’s Overseas Bases. csbaonline.org

2 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. How the United States is Building and Strengthening an Effective Counterproliferation Policy. heritage.org

2:30 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. The Dealmaker: Who will make peace happen? newamerica.org

3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Putin’s System: Why It is Stable and Why It Will Fail Anyway. wilsoncenter.org

5 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Schieffer Series: Foreign Policy Issues Facing the Next Congress. csis.org

QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The reason we won is I think Kavanaugh united our party, the caravan was an affront to our sovereignty, the economy was good, and President Trump worked his butt off to get out the Republican base vote.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham, explaining why the blue wave hit a red wall in the Senate.

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