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GOLDILOCKS KNOCKS: Presented with a range of options — light, medium or heavy — President Trump picked one in the “Goldilocks zone,” enough to punish Syrian President Bashar Assad, but not enough to provoke Russia or drag the U.S. into Syria’s seven-year civil war. Friday night (Saturday morning in Syria) the U.S., Britain and France launched 105 air and sea-launched missiles and hit three chemical weapons facilities in Syria in retaliation for a suspected chemical attack in Douma one week earlier. “I suspect there was probably a lighter option even than the one we took,” former Supreme NATO commander retired Adm. James Stavridis told NPR. “This is like Goldilocks and the three bears, right? Little bed, big bed. I think we picked exactly the right bed for this moment in time. It was a well-structured strike and, I think, a good decision.” THE MATTIS TOUCH: The strike plan was carefully calibrated to avoid civilian casualties, or striking Russian forces. The targets were “carefully selected with proportionality discrimination and being specifically associated with the chemical program,” said Defense Secretary Jim Mattis an hour after the strike ended. ABC’s Martha Raddatz reported that new national security adviser John Bolton was advocating for a broader strike. “But I’m told in the end, Bolton was respectful, listened to the variety of options, and presented those options to the president, which is exactly what he is supposed to do,” Raddatz said on ABC’s “This Week.” MACRON, LE CHARMEUR? In a television interview in France, President Emmanuel Macron claimed he personally convinced Trump that it is “necessary” to remain in Syria “long-term,” and that the allied strike should not go beyond hitting chemical weapons sites. “Ten days ago, President Trump was saying the United States of America had a duty to disengage from Syria … I assure you, we have convinced him that it is necessary to stay for the long-term,” Macron said, according to AFP. “The second thing is that we have also convinced him that he must limit his strikes to chemical weapons, at a time when there was a media furor via tweet, as I’m sure you noticed.” THE WHITE HOUSE RESPONDS: Last night press secretary Sarah Sanders pushed back on Macron’s statement with a statement of her own. “The U.S. mission has not changed — the President has been clear that he wants U.S. forces to come home as quickly as possible. We are determined to completely crush ISIS and create the conditions that will prevent its return. In addition, we expect our regional allies and partners to take greater responsibility both militarily and financially for securing the region.” TEXTBOOK PERFECT: Technically and tactically the coordinated attack was — as Trump tweeted — “a perfectly executed strike.” According to the Pentagon, all 105 missiles hit their targets, at nearly the same time, with no reported civilian deaths. No missiles were shot down. By the time Syrian air defenses reacted by firing anti-aircraft missiles, the strike was already over. “I’d use three words to describe this operation: precise, overwhelming and effective,” Lt. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie said at a Saturday morning briefing. MORE THAN A PINPRICK: Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford called the strikes “qualitatively and quantitatively different” from last April when the U.S. claimed to have taken out 20 percent of the Syrian air force in a U.S.-only strike against a single airfield. This time the Pentagon claims to have set Syria’s covert chemical weapons program back years, by destroying a research and development center, and two other sites. “We are very confident that we have significantly crippled Assad’s ability to produce these weapons,” said Dana White, the Pentagon’s chief spokesperson. BY THE NUMBERS: The 105 stand-off missiles represent an 81 percent increase in firepower compared to the 58 missiles launched into Syria last year. Here’s the breakdown, as provided by U.S. European Command:
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED? While Trump was exuberant the morning after the strike tweeting “Could not have had a better result. Mission Accomplished!,” it will take some time before we know if the strike has convinced Assad to never use chemical weapons again. In the immediate aftermath, he seems unbowed. Television pictures showed him going to work as if it was any other day, and Russia’s Interfax news agency quoted a lawmaker who spoke to the Syrian president who said he was “in absolutely positive spirits … in a good mood.” THAT’S MISSION WITH A SMALL ‘M’: Trump bristled at criticism that he was declaring premature success, as President George W. Bush did in 2003. Bush later expressed regret that he gave a victory speech on the deck of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln under a “Mission Accomplished” banner, just weeks after the invasion of Iraq. “The only way the Fake News Media could demean was by my use of the term ‘Mission Accomplished.’” Trump Tweeted. “I knew they would seize on this but felt it is such a great Military term, it should be brought back. Use often!” On Fox News Sunday, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N Nikki Haley explained further. “As a military spouse, I know that mission accomplished means you have one task currently in front of you and when it’s completed, it is mission accomplished,” Haley said. “Politically, mission accomplished means something broader. And I think the president was referring in military terms. “We, of course, know that our work in Syria is not done. We know that it’s now up to Bashar al-Assad on whether he is going to use chemical weapons again. And should he use it again, the president has made it very clear that the United States is locked and loaded and ready to go.” EVIDENCE OF SARIN: The White House released a fact sheet laying out the case that Syria used not only chlorine gas, but also the deadly nerve agent sarin, in the April 7 attack. “Doctors and aid organizations on the ground in Duma reported the strong smell of chlorine and described symptoms consistent with exposure to sarin,” the document stated. “The symptoms described in reporting from media, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other open sources-such as the WHO-include miosis (constricted pupils), convulsions, and disruption to central nervous systems. These symptoms, in addition to the dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries reported, suggest that the regime also used sarin in its attacks on April 7.” CONVENTIONAL BOMBS OK? On Fox News Sunday, Chris Wallace asked the question that bothers a lot of people outraged by Assad’s murder of hundreds of thousands of his own people. “Doesn’t the president’s policy allow the mass murder of women and children to continue as long as it’s carried out with conventional weapons and not chemical weapons?” he asked Haley. After protesting that it was “a very unfair question,” Haley tried to tackle the contradiction. “I don’t think we’ve ever said it’s OK, period. There is no way that any American or the president would ever say it’s OK to kill women and children,” she said. “I think that we have a lot of issues in the world and I think we’re trying to put out as many fires as we can. We can’t control what a country does to its people. We can condemn it, we can acknowledge it. … We’ve never sat back and watched bad things happen. We do wait and use military force as a last response to that. But we’ve always acted in every way related to every incident in some form just to let them know how much the United States condemns it.” Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY: MORE SANCTIONS COMING: The Trump administration is continuing its recent trend of getting tough with Russia by announcing new sanctions to punish Moscow for its failure to fulfill its pledge to ensure the elimination of all of Syria’s banned chemical weapons. “You will see that Russian sanctions will be coming down,” Haley said on “Face the Nation.” “Secretary Mnuchin will be announcing those on Monday, if he hasn’t already. And they will go directly to any sort of companies that were dealing with equipment related to Assad and chemical weapons used.” SHORTEST TENURE YET: While all the planning for the Syria strike was going on Friday, Trump was also busy blocking Vice President Mike Pence’s choice for his national security adviser. “Trump was furious when he learned Pence was bringing on Nikki Haley’s deputy Jon Lerner,” Axios reported yesterday. “The President believed Lerner was a card-carrying member of the ‘Never Trump’ movement because Lerner crafted brutal attack ads for Club for Growth’s multimillion-dollar anti-Trump blitz during the Republican primaries.” “Why would Mike do that?” Trump wondered aloud about Pence’s decision, according to Axios. Pence’s office announced Lerner’s appointment Friday. Last night a second statement announced that Lerner had withdrawn. PACOM AND NORTHCOM NOMINEES: The Senate Armed Services holds a hearing Tuesday on Trump’s picks to head U.S. Pacific Command and U.S. Northern Command. Adm. Philip Davidson has been tapped to replace PACOM chief Adm. Harry Harris, who the president wants as ambassador to Australia. Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy could replace Gen. Lori Robinson at NORTHCOM. The committee has moved quickly on the nominations. They both will be testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee just a week after being named. SLOW-ROLLING CIVILIAN NOMS: Meanwhile, the administration’s effort to confirm its remaining civilian appointees to the Pentagon grinds on. “I was not confirmed until three weeks after my job officially started. It’s been difficult to get appointees through in the Trump administration,” said Michael Griffin, the new undersecretary of defense for research and engineering. “Some of that has been because of just the normal churn of doing business as you change administrations and some of it is because, frankly, not everybody accepts the results of the election.” Griffin was among the last batch of Pentagon confirmations on Feb. 15. Since then, the number of appointees has held steady at 41 out of 57 total Senate-confirmed positions. Senate Republicans have blamed “historic” obstructionism by Democrats who aim to hold up Trump’s nominees and his agenda. “Over and over again, we’ve had to file cloture and exhaust floor time on amply-qualified nominees who then soar through their confirmation votes by lopsided margins,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said this week. Two Pentagon nominees are now parked on the Senate floor calendar and awaiting a final confirmation vote and seven are awaiting a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee. HERITAGE: TIME TO CUT DOD COSTS: The Pentagon is flush with cash for the first time in years, thanks to a two-year budget deal passed by Congress. In a new policy paper, the Heritage Foundation says now is the time to start slashing wasteful defense spending, and lawmakers should back the effort. “In times of budget increases, reforms and efficiencies tend to fall by the wayside. It should not be the case. The Pentagon should take advantage of its increased budget to make sure that there is room to invest in creating efficiencies and reforming outdated systems,” writes Frederico Bartels, a policy analyst for defense budgeting in the think tank’s Center for National Defense. The military’s global chain of grocery stores is one place Congress should look, the report says. The commissaries are getting a $1.4 billion subsidy this year, but lawmakers should press ahead with proposals to reduce that spending. The Pentagon also employs around 340,000 active-duty military personnel in commercial support jobs, and Bartels backs a Congressional Budget Office assessment on replacing up to 80,000 with civilians, a possible savings of $3 billion to nearly $6 billion per year. Opening up local competition for services on military bases could reduce those costs by 30-60 percent. TRANSGENDER SUIT MOVES TO TRIAL: A federal judge in Seattle has ordered that a lawsuit opposing the Trump administration’s proposed transgender military policy will proceed to trial. The transgender plaintiffs in the Karnoski v. Trump case had hoped for a pre-trial judgment. The Justice Department had sought to remove an injunction that is blocking the Pentagon from making any changes to the current open service policy put in place by the Obama administration. Both were denied, and now a trial will focus on the details of the Pentagon’s proposed policy that would ban many transgender people from serving in the military and eliminate medical treatment. “This means that before defendants can implement the ban, they must show that it was sincerely motivated by compelling interests, rather than by prejudice or stereotype, and that it is narrowly tailored to achieve those interests,” wrote Marsha Pechman, the U.S. district judge hearing the lawsuit. Pechman also declined to remove Trump as defendant. The case is one of four federal suits that were filed against Trump, Mattis and other officials in the administration. IS-K LEADERS ‘DECIMATED’: Afghan Special Security Forces, accompanied by U.S. special operations troops, killed 22 Islamic State-Khorasan fighters in Kabul, Afghanistan on April 11, according to U.S. Forces Afghanistan, which in a press release said the attack “decimated,” the group reducing it to “an isolated group of fighters devoid of leadership.” “The recent Afghan and U.S. special operations raid will lead to the tactical defeat of IS-K in northern Afghanistan,” said Gen. John Nicholson, U.S. forces commander in Afghanistan. “Pockets of former Taliban fighters may claim allegiance to IS-K, but they are isolated and losing. We have them on the defensive. They will not win.” |
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THE RUNDOWN Washington Post: Trump, a reluctant hawk, has battled his top aides on Russia and lost AFP: Life back to normal in Syrian capital day after Western strikes CNN: Survivors of a chemical attack in Syria tell their stories for the first time Business Insider: Russian journalist who covered Wagner Group mercenary deaths in Syria dies after falling from balcony AP: US pastor faces terror charges in fraught trial in Turkey Atlantic: Neither Precise Nor Proportionate Army Times: ‘How in the world are taxpayers paying for Alfa Romeos and Bentleys?’ Senator pushes Army leaders on Afghan contracts Fox News: Russia’s ‘tendencies’ to go rogue test peace talks in Syria, UK ambassador says Navy Times: Leadership failures in Navy pilot training squadrons led to Tennessee T-45 crash USA Today: Pentagon claims 2,000% increase in Russian trolls after Syria strikes. What does that mean? Reuters: Russia’s Putin predicts global ‘chaos’ if West hits Syria again Task and Purpose: 45 Years Ago, The US Almost Fought A Nuclear War With Syria And Russia New York Times: Attacks in Afghanistan Leave Dozens Dead and 2 Schools Burned |
CalendarMONDAY | APRIL 16 9:30 a.m. 900 S Orme St. Mitchell Hour on Allied Aerospace Power: A Conversation with Gen. David Goldfein, Air Force Chief of Staff. mitchellaerospacepower.org 1:30 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. Hidden Wounds: Trauma and Civilians in the Syrian Conflict. usip.org 4 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. The China Mission: George Marshall’s Unfinished War. newamerica.org 7:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. The Kalb Report – Putin’s Trump Card. press.org TUESDAY | APRIL 17 8 a.m. 1001 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Procurement Division Meeting. ndia.org 8:30 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. China and North Korea: Past, Present, and Future. usip.org 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Nomination Hearing for Adm. Philip Davidson, to be Commander of U.S. Pacific Command, and Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy, to be Commander of U.S. Northern Command. armed-services.senate.gov 10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Full Committee Hearing on Promoting DOD’s Culture of Innovation with Michael Griffin, Undersecretary of Defense, and Eric Schmidt, Chairman of the Defense Innovation Board. armedservices.house.gov 10 a.m. Full Committee Hearing U.S. Policy in Yemen with David Satterfield, Acting Assistant Secretary of State, and Robert Karem, Assistant Secretary of Defense. foreign.senate.gov 10 a.m. Longworth 1334. State Sponsors of Terrorism: An Examination of Iran’s Global Terrorism Network. homeland.house.gov 11 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Countering Russian Kleptocracy. hudson.org 11 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. Countering Illicit Funding of Terrorism: A Congressional Approach with Reps. Steve Pearce and Jim Himes. usip.org 2:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. Subcommittee Hearing on Navy Shipbuilding Programs with James Geurts, Assistant Secretary Of The Navy; Vice Adm. William Merz, Deputy Chief Of Naval Operations; and Lt. Gen. Robert Walsh, Deputy Commandant. armed-services.senate.gov 3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee Hearing on Fiscal Year 2019 Budget for Missile Defense and Missile Defeat Programs with John Rood, Undersecretary of Defense; Gen. Lori Robinson, Commander of U.S. Northern Command; Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves, Director of the Missile Defense Agency; and Lt. Gen. James Dickinson, Commander of Army Space and Missile Defense. armedservices.house.gov WEDNESDAY | APRIL 18 10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Full Committee Hearing on Oversight and Reform of the Department of Defense “4th Estate.” armedservices.house.gov 10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Hearing on the U.S. Policy Toward a Turbulent Middle East. foreignaffairs.house.gov 11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Future of U.S.-Romania Missile Defense Cooperation with Romania Ambassador George Cristian Maior. heritage.org 2 p.m. Rayburn 2212. Subcommittee Hearing on the Fiscal Year 2019 Budget for Energy, Installations and Environment with Lucian Niemeyer, Assistant Secretary of Defense; Jordan Gillis, Acting Assistant Secretary of the Army; Phyllis Bayer; Assistant Secretary of the Navy; and John Henderson, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force. armedservices.house.gov 2 p.m. Rayburn 2200. Subcommittee Hearing on the Dayton Legacy and the Future of Bosnia and the Western Balkans. foreignaffairs.house.gov 2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. Subcommittee Hearing on Libya Fractured: The Struggle for Unity. foreignaffairs.house.gov 2:30 p.m. Russell 232-A. Subcommittee Hearing on Accelerating New Technologies to Meet Emerging Threats with Michael Griffin, Under Secretary Of Defense For Research And Engineering. armed-services.senate.gov 3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee Hearing on the Ground Force Modernization Budget for 2019 with Lt. Gen. Paul Ostrowski, Military Deputy to the Assistant Secretary of the Army; Lt. Gen. John Murray, Deputy Chief of Staff; Lt. Gen. Robert Walsh, Commanding General of Marine Corps Combat Development Command; and Brig. Gen. Joe Shrader, Commanding General of Marine Corps Systems Command. armedservices.house.gov 3:30 p.m. Russell 222. Hearing on Air Force Modernization with Lt. Gen. Arnold Bunch, Military Deputy for Acquisition; Lt. Gen. Jerry Harris, Deputy Chief Of Staff For Strategic Plans And Requirements; and Brig. Gen. Brian Robinson, Assistant Deputy Chief Of Staff. armed-services.senate.gov 6 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Where the Wind Blew: Film Screening and Discussion. carnegieendowment.org 6:30 p.m. 1250 South Hayes St. Dwight D. Eisenhower Award Dinner. ndia.org THURSDAY | APRIL 19 7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Institute of Land Warfare Breakfast Series with Lt. Gen Charles Luckey, Chief of the Army Reserve. ausa.org 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Hearing on the Posture of the Department of the Navy with Secretary Richard Spencer; Adm. John Richardson, Chief Of Naval Operations; and Gen. Robert Neller, Commandant of the Marine Corps. armed-services.senate.gov 10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee Hearing on Army Fiscal Year 2019 Budget Request Readiness Posture with Lt. Gen. Joseph Anderson, Deputy Chief of Staff; Lt. Gen. Timothy Kadavy, Director of the Army National Guard; Lt. Gen. Charles Luckey, Chief of the Army Reserve; and Lt. Gen. Aundre Piggee, Deputy Chief of Staff. armedservices.house.gov 10:30 a.m. Rayburn 2212. Subcommittee Hearing on Military Health System Reform: Pain Management, Opioids Prescription Management and Reporting Transparency with Vice Adm. Raquel Bono, Director of the Defense Health Agency, and Capt. Mike Colston, Director of Mental Health Policy and Oversight. armedservices.house.gov 2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. SIGAR launches new report on private sector development in Afghanistan. usip.org 5:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Dialogue on Combating Religious Extremism and Terror with Sri Sri Ravi Shankar. atlanticcouncil.org FRIDAY | APRIL 20 6 a.m. 44050 Woodridge Parkway. Washington, D.C. Chapter “Swing for Freedom” Invitation for Golf Outing benefiting USO-Metro. ndia.org 10 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. From Spark Tank to think tank: A conversation with Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson. aei.org 12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. China’s Growing Influence in the Indian Ocean: Implications for the U.S. and Its Regional Allies. hudson.org MONDAY | APRIL 23 11 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. Washington’s Shifting Syria Policy: Implications for U.S.-Turkey Relations. press.org 12:15 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. ISIS in North Africa: Past and Future Trajectories. newamerica.org 6 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on U.S.-Iran Relations. cfr.org |
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