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FULL COURT PRESS: Days after writing a forceful op-ed, Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., and Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, took their argument against Trump’s proposed defense budget cuts directly to the president yesterday. “I had a frank and productive conversation about our national security goals with the president. We share a commitment to undoing the damage left behind by President Obama and to rebuilding our military to achieve the National Defense Strategy,” Inhofe said in a statement. The armed services chairmen were also be joined by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis according to The Washington Post, which was first to report the Oval Office meeting. As we’ve reported, the Pentagon has two proposed Fiscal Year 2020 budget plans prepared for President Trump. One for the $700 billion he asked for. And the other for $733 billion, which the Pentagon was counting on before Trump sprung his “nickel plan” on his Cabinet in October, requesting a 5 percent reduction from all federal agencies, including defense. Both Inhofe and Thornberry have called the president’s 5 percent cut dangerous. “The participants believe we continue to make progress and are still on track to rebuild the military,” a congressional source told the Washington Examiner following the White House gathering. Inhofe has called $733 billion the minimum for next year’s budget and said 3-5 percent above that is ideal. “I am confident from the meeting that the president is determined to keep our nation strong and the military adequately funded. I look forward to continuing to work with President Trump and Vice President Pence to achieve these shared goals,” Inhofe said. Inhofe told the Examiner recently he plans legislation next year exempting defense spending from Budget Control Act caps. MATTIS THE PERSUADER: At the Reagan National Defense Forum on Saturday, Mattis previewed the argument he would make to the president. “When we measure defense spending, we must realize it’s near historic lows as a share of both the federal budget and our national economy,” he said. “In 1957, defense spending was 52 percent of the federal budget, and in 2017 it was 15 percent. Defense spending today accounts for 3 percent of America’s gross domestic product. It’s up to me to make the logical argument about what the president’s submission should look like.” LESS MONEY, MORE RISKS: At yesterday’s Senate confirmation hearing for Lt. Gen. Frank McKenzie to become the next U.S. Central Commander, Inhofe enlisted the Marine general’s help in making the case that $733 billion should be a floor, not a ceiling for defense spending. And McKenzie was perfectly willing to follow Inhofe’s lead. “The $733 billion figure was arrived at by the department carefully looking at the requirements of the National Defense Strategy. It reflects our best projection of a strategy-informed budget,” testified McKenzie, who in his current assignment as joint staff director, helped draft the budget. “Anything below the $733 billion would increase risk, and that risk would be manifested across the force,” said McKenzie. “We are in the process now, very carefully across the department, of examining the details of what the nature of that risk would be, who would it be imposed upon, and the nature of it.” AFGHANISTAN STILL STALEMATED: One of McKenzie’s biggest challenge in his new assignment will be bringing the war in Afghanistan, now in its 18th year, to some kind of resolution. McKenzie admitted from military standpoint the “situation is largely stalemated.” But on the positive side, he insisted that with the arrival of Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad to conduct shuttle diplomacy, prospects for persuading the Taliban to talk peace have improved — especially because the Taliban, while able to launch deadly attacks are stalemated, too. “The diplomatic line of effort is alive and being vigorously pursued now by him and other actors in the region,” McKenzie said. “That is a new element in the equation that we have not had before,” he said. “I may be wrong, but I believe this is a new opportunity for us and the military campaign is in direct support of that.” NO END IN SIGHT: McKenzie would not be pinned down on any timeline for an end to the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan but warned a precipitous withdrawal would lead to disaster. “I don’t know how long it’s going to take. I think that one of the things that would actually provide the most damaging to them [the Afghans] would be if we put a timeline on it and we said we’re going out at a certain point in time,” McKenzie said without the support of the U.S and NATO-led partner troops, Afghanistan could again become a safe haven for terrorists. “I do know that today, it would be very difficult for them to survive without our, and our coalition partners’ assistance.” Asked what he would tell the families of the 13 U.S. troops who have died in Afghanistan so far this year, McKenzie said: “What we are doing is we are protecting the homeland of the United States from being attacked. That’s what you say to the Americans, and that’s a clear, visible, tangible effort that we can honor them for.” EYE ON IRAN: McKenzie said of all the challenges in his area of responsibility, which includes Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and Afghanistan — Iran is the biggest concern. “The most significant long-and-short-term threat in the Central Command theater is Iran, and Iran’s ambitions, both in the theater and, also, to a degree globally,” McKenzie said under questioning from Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas. McKenzie cited Iran’s progress in developing a long-range ballistic missile that could reach the United States. “They’re testing,” he said, “And we watched their space launch vehicle with great interest. Because, as we’ve seen in other places around the world, that is technology that is easily transferred from a space launch vehicle to an ICBM of significant range.” Asked about the danger of Iran developing nuclear weapons, McKenzie said, “They’ve been inimically opposed to us for many years, and so you can only speculate, what they might do with those weapons,” adding “I can’t imagine that anything good.” Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY, BUSH STATE FUNERAL: All the living presidents will be in attendance at the Washington National Cathedral 11 this morning as nation’s capital bids its final farewell to the late president, George H.W. Bush. President Donald Trump is attending but is not scheduled to speak. President George W. Bush will eulogize his father. Former first lady Laura Bush will offer a reading. Other speakers include former Sen. Alan Simpson, R-Wyo., Bush biographer Jon Meacham, and former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney. Today is an official federal government holiday for the national day of mourning, declared by President Trump. MATTIS TO CANADA: Defense Secretary Mattis departs today for a meeting in Ottawa, Canada of the top 13 military contributing nations to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. Yesterday in his Senate testimony, the prospective new CENTCOM commander, Lt. Gen. McKenzie declared the physical ISIS caliphate close to finished as a conventional fighting force. Currently, the Syrian Democratic Forces, backed by the U.S.-led coalition, are in the third phase of what’s been dubbed “Operation Roundup” in an area of Syria, located in the Middle Euphrates River Valley. “I think that we are very close to finishing the physical destruction of the caliphate,” said McKenzie. “I wouldn’t want to put a timeline on it, but it’s coming close.” The U.S. military estimates there are approximately 2,000 ISIS fighters left operating in less than 1 percent of the territory they once held. WHERE IS BAGHDADI? As ISIS loses its grip on Syria, one big question is what happened to the elusive leader of the terrorist group Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi? “I think he’s a very scared man running for his life somewhere in the desert near the Euphrates river,” McKenzie said while downplaying the importance of eliminating him. “I would just note, as long as you’re concerned about whether you’re going to die in the next hour or so, it’s hard to plot attacks against Detroit.” BORDER FORCE EXTENDED: Before he left for Canada, Mattis signed off on the latest request from DHS to will extend the deployment of active-duty troops for another 45 days, which means thousands of troops who missed Thanksgiving with their families, will also miss the rest of the holiday season. There are 5,900 active duty troops in the southwest border region, but the number could come down before the mission is now scheduled to end Jan. 31, as the administration adjusts the deployment in response to the shifting position of migrants, according to several Homeland Security and Defense officials. Supplementary DOD and DHS forces have declined about 10 and 20 percent, respectively, in the last week. Remaining support is being moved to areas where caravans have settled in across the border from western Arizona and west from there toward San Diego. POMPEO’S ULTIMATUM: At NATO headquarters in Brussels yesterday Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the ball is totally in Russia’s court when it comes to the future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. “The United States today declares it has found Russia in material breach of the treaty and will suspend our obligations as a remedy effective in 60 days unless Russia returns to full and verifiable compliance,” Pompeo said after meeting with fellow foreign ministers at NATO. “Russia is responsible for the demise of the treaty,” Pompeo told reporters at a press conference. “Only they can save this treaty. If Russia admits its violations and fully and verifiably comes back into compliance, we will, of course, welcome that course of action.” AND THE REACTION: In a joint op-ed in this morning’s Washington Post, former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and former U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz argue the threat to withdraw from the INF is wrongheaded. “The answer to the problems that have come up is not to abandon the INF Treaty but to preserve and fix it. Military and diplomatic officials from the United States and Russia should meet to address and resolve the issues of verification and compliance. Equally difficult problems have been solved in the past once the two sides put their minds to it. We are confident this can be done again,” the two write. Gorbachev signed the landmark arms control treaty in 1987 with then U.S. President Ronald Reagan. OTHER VIEWS: “Secretary Pompeo has put Putin on the clock — 60 days to change course and comply with the treaty, or else the United States will withdraw. A treaty with only one side complying is unsustainable. Can Putin be trusted to uphold Russia’s international commitments? I won’t hold my breath.” Sen. Jim Inhofe, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee “The Trump administration is unilaterally taking action on the INF Treaty without meaningful consultation and coordination with our NATO allies. Setting us on a precipitous course toward withdrawal from this treaty undermines the NATO alliance and transatlantic security while playing directly into President Putin’s plans to divide us. It is no secret that some of President Trump’s advisers are more focused on promoting U.S. withdrawal from its international commitments than prioritizing the collective security of America and its partners and allies. The Trump administration should instead work with our allies to take meaningful actions to hold Russia accountable for its violation of the treaty, press Russia back into compliance, and avoid a new arms race.” Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., incoming chairman of the House Armed Services Committee “Moscow has deployed intermediate-range weapons that can strike at the heart of Europe — in violation of their treaty commitments — while Beijing stockpiles missiles in an attempt to limit American action in the Pacific. We need to change old policies to ward off new threats. America must not allow our authoritarian rivals to build and deploy dangerous, destabilizing weapons while we keep one hand tied behind our back.” Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark. “While I remain deeply concerned with Russia’s violation of the Treaty, today’s pronouncement is a geostrategic gift to Russia. It takes the focus away from Russia’s malign behavior and replaces it with a narrative that the U.S. is willing to abandon treaties without strategic alternatives. This decision will only serve to exacerbate tense relations with our NATO allies, which will see the administration decision as another step on the road to an unconstrained nuclear arms race with Russia.” Sen. Bob Menendez, N.J., ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee A ‘SMOKING SAW’: In a rebuke to both Pompeo and Mattis, senators emerged from a closed-door briefing with CIA Director Gina Haspel expressing no doubt that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (aka MBS) was in on the planning and execution of the plot to murder dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey in October. Pompeo has said the intelligence showed no direct link to the crown prince, while Mattis insisted there was “no smoking gun.” “You have to be willfully blind not to come to the conclusion that this was orchestrated and organized by people under the command of MBS. I think Secretary Pompeo and Mattis are following the lead of the President. There’s not a smoking gun, there’s a smoking saw,” said an animated Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., after the classified briefing. “Here’s my takeaway,” Graham said. “Saudi Arabia is a strategic ally and the relationship is worth saving but not at all cost. We’ll do more damage to our standing in the world and our national security by ignoring MBS than dealing with him. MBS, the crown prince, is a wrecking ball. I think he’s complicit in the murder of Mr. Khashoggi to the highest level possible. I think the behavior before the Khashoggi murder was beyond disturbing, and I cannot see him being a reliable partner to the United States. Saudi Arabia and MBS are two different entities. If the Saudi government is going to be in the hands of this man for a long time to come, I find it very difficult to be able to do business because I think he’s crazy, I think he is dangerous, and he has put the relationship at risk.” And then there was Republican Sen. Bob Corker, Tenn., outgoing chairman of the Foreign Relations committee. “I have zero questions in my mind that the crown prince, MBS, ordered the killing, monitored the killing, knew exactly what was happening, planned it in advance. If he was in front of a jury, he would be convicted in 30 minutes guilty,” Corker said. He accused the Trump administration of turning a blind eye to the obvious complicity of the crown prince. “So, what the message is to him and those around him is that you can go around killing journalists.” Democratic Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer, N.Y., called for Haspel to brief the full Senate before its votes on a bull to sanction Saudi Arabia, which is opposed by the Trump administration. “While I will not discuss the content of the Haspel briefing, it reinforced the need for a strong response to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. CIA Director Haspel should brief the full Senate without delay.” THE RUNDOWN Washington Examiner: Not done yet? Mueller hails former Trump adviser Flynn’s help ‘with several ongoing investigations’ Breaking Defense: Mattis Vs. Mulvaney: The Coming Budget Clash & The Reagan Legacy Washington Examiner: Army soldier who watched hours of ISIS propaganda sentenced to 25 years behind bars New York Times: Houthi Delegation Leaves Yemen for Talks in Sweden Defense News: The US has taken the first step to leaving an arms control treaty. What happens next? Air Force Magazine: Heidi Grant: US Must Have Frank Conversation With Allies About Contributions to Fight Reuters: Ordinary Americans, dignitaries mourn Bush at U.S. Capitol Defense One: Airbus Looks to Pounce As Boeing Struggles to Deliver First Tanker Task and Purpose: CENTCOM Nominee Admits Afghan Military Would Collapse If US Left Wall Street Journal: Time Runs Short for Congress to Pass Syrian Legislation Air Force Times: Luke revives squadron to train Dutch, Danish F-35 pilots |
CalendarWEDNESDAY | DEC. 5 8 a.m. Defense Forum Washington 2018 with Thomas Modly, Under Secretary of the Navy; Veronica Daigle, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Readiness; and Reps. Rob Wittman and Joe Courtney. usni.org 8:30 a.m. 1025 Connecticut Ave. NW. The First DOD Audit Report: Breakfast Discussion with Defense Department Comptroller David Norquist. cftni.org 9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Stabilizing Syria: Toward a Human Security Framework. atlanticcouncil.org 9 a.m. 1401 Lee Hwy. Mitchell Hour Air Force Operations: Increasing Readiness and Lethality with Lt. Gen. Mark Kelly, Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations. mitchellaerospacepower.org 11 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book Launch of “Rules for Rebels: The Science of Victory in Militant History” with Author Max Abrahms. csis.org 11:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Technology: Implications for U.S. National Security with Rep. Mike McCaul, Chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security. hudson.org 12:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Stopping Kremlin Aggression in the Sea of Azov. atlanticcouncil.org 12:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Foreign Affairs November/December Issue Launch: Do Nuclear Weapons Matter? cfr.org 3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Diverse Boots on the Ground: EU and NATO Effectiveness. wilsoncenter.org THURSDAY | DEC. 6 8:30 a.m. Fort McNair. Sen. Jim Inhofe Address to Students at the National Defense University About Resourcing National Defense. 9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Maritime Security Dialogue with Navy Secretary Richard Spencer. csis.org 9:30 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. News Conference: Iran on Trial for Terrorism. press.org 12:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. NPC Headliners Luncheon with Adm. Karl Schultz, Commandant of the Coast Guard. press.org 12:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. DMGS-Kennan Distinguished Speaker Series: A Conversation with Bellingcat’s Aric Toler on Open-Source Reporting. wilsoncenter.org 4 p.m. 1301 K St. NW. Transformers: Defense with Gen. Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Steven Walker, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Director. washingtonpost.com FRIDAY | DEC. 7 9 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Saudi Arabia’s War in Yemen with Rep. Ro Khanna. cato.org MONDAY | DEC. 10 7:30 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. SLAAD Winter Quarterly Meeting. ndia.org 10:30 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. Bridging the Data-Policy Gap on Counterterrorism: A Discussion of the Sixth Global Terrorism Index. usip.org TUESDAY | DEC. 11 11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Future of the U.S. Aircraft Carrier: Fearsome Warship or Expensive Target? heritage.org 11 a.m. 46870 Tate Rd. NDIA Patuxent River Speaker Series with Todd Balazs, Digital Integration Officer for Naval Air Systems Command. ndia.org 4:30 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. A National Security Crisis Lecture with Sen. Jon Kyl. heritage.org WEDNESDAY | DEC. 12 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Subcommittee Hearing on Navy and Marine Corps Readiness with Navy Secretary Richard Spencer; Gen. Robert Neller, Marine Corps Commandant; and Vice Adm. Bill Moran, Vice Chief Of Naval Operations. armed-services.senate.gov 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Subcommittee Hearing on Implications of China’s Presence and Investment in Africa. armed-services.senate.gov 10 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Association of the United States Army Job Fair. ausa.org 11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Why Do Russia and the US Need Each Other: Foreign Policy and National Identity. wilsoncenter.org 4 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Our Uncertain Nuclear Future: How Do We Proceed if Treaties are Trashed? stimson.org |
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