NATURE OF WARFARE CHANGING: When Defense Secretary Mark Esper appears before the House Armed Services Committee this morning, he will pitch the idea that the U.S. military needs to fully embrace “critical and emerging technologies,” if it is to maintain its edge over other adversaries, especially China.
“We are in the midst of rapid technological change that has the potential to fundamentally alter the character of war. Our adversaries are systematically and strategically developing and fielding advanced systems, eroding the advantage the United States military has maintained in conventional warfare,” Esper says in his prepared testimony released by the Pentagon.
FLAT BUDGET, HARD CHOICES: Esper says faced with a flat budget of $705.4 billion, which doesn’t keep pace with inflation, he was forced to make “many tough decisions” to ensure funding for the Pentagon’s highest priorities, which include hypersonics, microelectronics/5G, autonomy, and artificial intelligence.
“More so than any other emerging technology, AI is transforming our society and affecting the ways in which we do business, interact socially, and conduct war,” Esper argues. “Our competitors have also recognized the transformative potential of AI and are investing heavily in it as they modernize their military forces. Maintaining a competitive advantage in AI is essential to our national security.”
FUTURE NAVY: 355 SHIPS, BUT MOSTLY SMALLER: Esper says the Pentagon remains committed to building a 355 ship Navy, but says the future naval fleet will look much different than today, including unmanned “autonomous” ships.
“The future force will emphasize fewer large surface platforms, more and smaller surface combatants, lightly/optionally-manned ships, and an ample submarine force,” he says in his posture statement. “Just as the Air Force and Army are integrating more remotely piloted aircraft and optionally manned ground vehicles, the Navy must begin to integrate and deploy lightly/optionally-manned ships.”
CHINA PRIORITY NO. 1: Esper continues to warn that China poses the biggest threat to U.S. military superiority in the 21st century, noting Beijing is using its diplomatic, economic, and military strength “to attempt to alter the landscape of power and reshape the world in its favor, often at the expense of others,” with the goal of becoming the preeminent global military power by 2049.
“What is most troubling is that China is pursuing these objectives by any means necessary, including forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, cyber espionage, and commercial acquisitions,” Esper says. “Once Beijing obtains and develops these technologies, it leverages them to intimidate or coerce smaller states, while simultaneously narrowing the United States’ competitive advantage.”
WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Esper and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley begin their testimony before the House Armed Services Committee at 10 a.m. and there could be some fireworks predicts Mackenzie Eaglen, resident fellow, over at the American Enterprise Institute.
In an op-ed, “Top 5 Things to Watch in Congress’ 2021 Defense Budget Hearings,” Eaglen says border wall funding could be the first flashpoint. “The president has already broken his own budget deal, again proposed drastic discretionary cuts the Hill is dismissing, and raided the Pentagon piggy bank a second time for the wall,” she writes.
The HASC Chairman Adam Smith said it best: Trump’s raiding of the defense budget undermines the Pentagon’s argument for more money. ‘If you can just grab $7 billion out of your budget, then I think we need to take a closer look at your budget and how to cut it.’”
The live stream of today’s hearing is available here and here.
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: The novel coronavirus, which has now been officially named COVID-19, is continuing to disrupt operations at U.S. military bases in South Korea, where the first U.S. soldier has tested positive for the infection, and has been quarantined at his off-base residence.
The U.S. military said the 23-year-old soldier had been based in Camp Carroll in a town near Daegu, where the latest outbreak is centered, according to a statement issued today. South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said 216 of 284 new cases reported in the past 24 hours were in Daegu.
General Robert Abrams, the U.S. Korea commander, has raised the risk level to U.S. forces to “high” and U.S. Forces Korea has placed a “COVID-19 hotspot tracker” on its home page.
NO HANDSHAKING, BOWLING, DINING OUT: Under “Health Protection Condition Charlie,” U.S. troops and civilian workers and contractors are being told to “limit non-mission essential in-person meetings,” and to “avoid close or unnecessary contact with others, including handshaking.”
Bowling alleys, movie theaters and a golf course at four U.S. bases have been closed out of a strong abundance of caution, and “service members are restricted from attending non-essential off-installation activities and social events including eat-in seated dining (take-out is allowed), shopping, bars, clubs, movie theaters or locations that have more than 20 people,” says the USFK advisory.
US TROOPS IN EUROPE HUNKER DOWN: With a spike of reported cases in Italy, thousands of U.S troops and their families are living under new restrictions as Army officials have closed on-base schools and other facilities, reports Joel Gehrke in the Washington Examiner.
“Those facilities remain closed, and the travel to the two states are still prohibited in Italy,” Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, the NATO supreme allied commander and commander of European Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday.
There are more than 6,000 members of the U.S. military at the base in Vicenza, roughly 70% of whom are accompanied by spouses and children, “and over 35,000 U.S. military members in Italy,” Wolters said.
“And they’re all mostly just sitting at home right now trying to avoid the coronavirus?” Sen. Tom Cotton, an Arkansas Republican, asked Wolters during the hearing.
“Not mostly, but there’s a fair amount, yes, sir,” the general replied.
AFGHANISTAN ELECTION IN FLUX: With the results of this month’s presidential election being disputed by losing candidate Abdullah Abdullah, the U.S. is not yet recognizing the winner.
“The United States notes the announcement on February 18, 2020 by the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan on the results of the presidential election held September 28, 2019 in favor of President Ashraf Ghani,” said a statement released by State Department spokesman Morgan Ortagus.
“Concerns have been raised about the election process. We expect these concerns to be handled in accordance with constitutional and legal procedures,” she said, but added, ‘It is time to focus not on electoral politics, but on taking steps toward a lasting peace, ending the war with the Taliban, and finding a formula for a political settlement that can serve the interests of all of this country’s citizens through intra-Afghan negotiations we expect will begin in March.”
POMPEO: ‘HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY’: “All sides are tired of fighting,” said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at a Tuesday briefing for reporters. “We’ve arrived at a historic opportunity for peace. It won’t be easy to obtain. We should seize the moment.”
The week-long reduction in violence agreement runs through Friday, and a withdrawal could be signed Saturday, followed by “phased” troop withdrawals.
“We’re not required to leave unless they can demonstrate they’re fulfilling every element of their end of the bargain,” Pompeo said. “This agreement also entails respect for the Afghan people. It’s a declaration that the future of their country resides in their hands, not ours.”
LAST NIGHT’S DEBATE: The last Democratic presidential debate before next week’s Super Tuesday primaries was another unruly affair, with the seven candidates often talking over each other and barely getting the chance to complete a thought.
But there was some mention of national security issues.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is trying to position herself as the more rational progressive alternative to Bernie Sanders, was asked if she would use military force to stop the killing in the Syrian civil war.
“I think that what we’ve got to do is we have to provide humanitarian relief. We need to work with our allies on this,” she said. “But this is not a moment for military intervention. We have got to use our military only when we see a military problem that can be solved militarily. We cannot send our military in unless we have a plan to get them out.”
Former Vice President Joe Biden said he wouldn’t negotiate with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, but then ran out time as he tried to explain how he would work closer with China and U.S. allies Japan and South Korea.
“You don’t negotiate with a dictator, give him legitimacy without any notion whether he is going to do anything at all. You don’t do that. Look what happened. He gave this dictator — he’s a thug — legitimacy,’ he said.
On North Korea and Iran, Sen. Amy Klobuchar also said she would stress working with allies. “North Korea is emboldened. They’re still launching missiles,” Klobuchar said. “So what would I do? I would work with our allies.
“We should be negotiating ourselves back into the Iran nuclear agreement,” she said, and added that in addition to confronting Russia about election interference, “We should be renegotiating the New START treaty and the other arms negotiations that must happen.”
Asked if he would pull U.S. combat troops out of the Middle East, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said while “you want to cut it back as much as you can … We have to be able to stop terrorism.
“There’s no guarantees that you’re going to be able to do it, but we have to have some troops in places where terrorists congregate, and to not do so is just irresponsible,” he said.
Bloomberg said the Pentagon is doing a good job spending money on weapons that will be needed for the next war. “The things that I’ve seen recently convinced me that the military today is better prepared than they have been in an awful long time.
Sen. Bernie Sanders was still on the defensive about his praise for Cuban dictator Fidel Castro’s literacy program.
“Excuse me, occasionally it might be a good idea to be honest about American foreign policy, and that includes the fact that America has overthrown governments all over the world in Chile, in Guatemala, in Iran,” Sanders said. “And when dictatorships, whether it is the Chinese or the Cubans do something good, you acknowledge that. But you don’t have to trade love letters with them.”
Former Indiana Mayor Pete Buttgieg said Sanders’ defense of Castro is a losing strategy. “We’re not going to win these critical, critical House and Senate races if people in those races have to explain why the nominee of the Democratic Party is telling people to look at the bright side of the Castro regime,” Buttigieg said. “We’ve got to be a lot smarter about this and look to the future.”
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US has ‘sufficient visibility’ into Russian submarines but can’t find them ‘100% of the time’
Washington Examiner: Do malaria pills cause PTSD-like symptoms in troops? Scientists say more studies needed
Washington Examiner: Man charged for attempting to ‘blow up’ car in Pentagon parking lot
Military Times: AFRICOM Airstrike Takes Out Al-Shabab Leader Behind Manda Bay Attack, Which Killed Three Americans
Washington Examiner: US considered ‘kidnapping or poisoning’ Assange inside UK Ecuadorian Embassy, lawyers say
Washington Post: Ex-Boeing Manager Suspected Of Spying For China Says He Was The Victim Of A Flawed Investigation
Military Times: Taliban Attacks Significantly Down As Reduction In Violence Deal Appears To Hold
Bloomberg: Pentagon Sees a $9 Billion Surge in Nuclear Spending by 2025
Breaking Defense: Esper To Navy: Rethink Your Shipbuilding Plan
Defense News: Trump Called For A 350-Ship Fleet, But His Budget Falls Short Of Even Obama-Era Goals
Breaking Defense: OMFV: Army Seeks Industry Advice On Bradley Replacement
Washington Post: As Yemen’s war intensifies, an opening for al-Qaeda to resurrect its fortunes
War on the Rocks: How to fix U.S. Special Operations Forces
Forbes: Five Reasons The U.S. Army Deserves To Be First In Line For More Modernization Funding
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 26
8 a.m. Orlando, Fl. — Day one of the Air Force Association 2020 Air Warfare Symposium. Agenda at https://www.afa.org/events/airwarfare/agenda
8:45 a.m. 3301 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — National Defense Industrial Association “U.S.-Finland Defense and Security Industry Seminar,” with Kirsti Kauppi, Finnish ambassador to the U.S.; Ellen Lord; Undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; Jukka Juusti, permanent secretary in the Finnish Ministry of Defense. https://www.ndia.org/events
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley testify before the House Armed Services Committee on “The Fiscal Year 2021 National Defense Authorization Budget Request from the Department of Defense.” https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion on “Prospects for a Stable Transformation of the Korean Peninsula,” with State Department Deputy Special Representative for North Korea Alex Wong; Jina Kim, research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses; Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation; Seong-hyon Lee, director of the Sejong Institute’s Center for Chinese Studies; Patricia Kim, senior policy analyst at the U.S. Institute of Peace; and Patrick Cronin, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
12 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Cato Institute discussion on “The Failure of Forcible Regime-Change Operations,” with Lindsey O’Rourke, assistant professor at Boston College; Alexander Downes, associate professor of political science and international relations at George Washington University; Ben Denison, postdoctoral fellow at the Tufts University Center for Strategic Studies; and Christopher Preble, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at Cato. Livestream at http://www.cato.org/live
5 p.m. 1521 16th St. N.W. — Institute of World Politics lecture on the impact of the Internet in “promoting disinformation, lies, propaganda, deep flakes, troll swarms, personal attacks, and conspiracy theories, with Donald Bishop, chair of strategic communications at the Marine Corps University. https://www.iwp.edu/events
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 27
8 a.m. Orlando, Fl. — Day two of the Air Force Association 2020 Air Warfare Symposium, with Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett; U.S. Northern Commander Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy; Pacific Air Forces Commander Gen. Charles Brown; Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, commander, U.S. Air Forces in Europe; Air Combat Commander Gen. James Holmes, and others. Agenda at https://www.afa.org/events/airwarfare/agenda
8:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — “Fiscal Note” CQ Roll Call discussion on the “Defense and the Federal Budget 2021,” with House Budget ranking member Steve Womack, R-Ark.; Matt Padilla, national security counsel in the office of Senator Tom Udall, D-N.M.; John Luddy, vice president of national security policy at the Aerospace Industries Association; John Nichols, partner at the Potomac Advocates; and John Donnelly, senior national security reporter at CQ Roll Call https://pages.fiscalnote.com
9 a.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Md.— The American Conservative Union holds its annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). Agenda: http://cpac.conservative.org/agenda
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Fiscal Year 2021 National Defense Authorization Budget Request for the Department of the Navy, with acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday, and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2 p.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Reform Subcommittee on National Security hearing on U.S. troops who say they were exposed to chemical and radiological hazards while deployed to Karshi-Khanabad (K2) Air Base in Uzbekistan after Sept. 11, 2001, with testimony from retired Air Force Master Sgt. Paul Widener, K2 Veteran; Kim Brooks, spouse of Army Lt. Col. Timothy Brooks; and retired Army Chief Warrant Officer Scott Welsch. Livestream at https://www.youtube.com/user/OversightDems
2:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces hearing: “Strategic Forces Posture,” with John Rood, outgoing undersecretary of defense for policy; U.S. Space Commander Gen. John Raymond; and U.S. Strategic Commander, Adm. Charles Richard. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
3:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces hearing: “Air Force Projection Forces Aviation Programs and Capabilities Related to the 2021 President’s Budget Request, with William Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force, acquisition, technology and logistics; and Lt. Gen. David Nahom, Air Force deputy chief of staff, plans and programs. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 28
8 a.m. Orlando, Fl. — Day three of the Air Force Association 2020 Air Warfare Symposium, with, Will Roper, assistant secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology And Logistics; Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett; Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein; and Elon Musk, SpaceX Chief Engineer and Lt. Gen. John Thompson, commander, Space and Missile Systems Center. Agenda at https://www.afa.org/events/airwarfare/agenda
9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion: “How a Modernized Navy will Compete with China and Russia,” with acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly, and Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events
9 a.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor, Md.— The American Conservative Union holds its annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). Agenda: http://cpac.conservative.org/agenda
5 p.m. 1521 16th St. N.W. — Institute of World Politics book discussion on “To Catch a Spy: The Art of Counterintelligence,” with author Jim Olson, former chief of CIA counterintelligence. https://www.iwp.edu/events
MONDAY | MARCH 2
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion: “Congress and defense policy: A conversation with Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas.” https://www.brookings.edu/events
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion: “Defending NATO’s eastern flank: A conversation on Russia with Estonia’s minister of defense,” with Jüri Luik Estonian MoD. https://www.brookings.edu/events
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 4
9 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — McAleese Defense Programs Conference. Register at [email protected]
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“It is clear by the actions of today’s revisionist powers and rogue regimes that the free and open international order, which has provided peace and prosperity for decades, is under duress. America’s adversaries are intent on eroding our military’s longstanding overmatch, undermining our robust architecture of allies and partners, and degrading our standing as the global partner of choice.”
Defense Secretary Mark Esper in remarks prepared for delivery to Congress.
