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‘GREATEST SPONSOR OF TERRORISM’: Mike Pompeo was on a big blue and white plane within three hours of his swearing-in last week, and has spent four days on a whirlwind trip to consult with allies as President Trump leans toward pulling out of the Iran nuclear agreement that he believes is deeply flawed. Pompeo’s first stop was NATO headquarters, where he joked he didn’t want to be late for work on his first day, and is wrapping up his trip today in Jordan, after meetings in Saudi Arabia and Israel. Administration officials insist Trump hasn’t made a final decision on withdrawing from the deal, but Pompeo sure made it sound as though the U.S. will pull the plug over the objections of all the other signatories, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and Iran. “Unlike the prior administration, we will not neglect the vast scope of Iran’s terrorism. It is indeed the greatest sponsor of terrorism in the world, and we are determined to make sure it never possesses a nuclear weapon. The Iran deal in its current form does not provide that assurance,” Pompeo said in Saudi Arabia. “We will continue to work with our European allies to fix that deal, but if a deal cannot be reached, the president has said that he will leave that deal.” WORK WITH US, PLEASE: The leaders of Britain, France and Germany continue to argue that whatever its shortcomings, the 2015 agreement remains the “best way” to thwart Tehran’s nuclear threat. “They discussed the importance of the Iran nuclear deal … as the best way of neutralizing the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran, agreeing that our priority as an international community remained preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon,” British Prime Minister Theresa May’s office said in a statement yesterday. “They agreed that there were important elements that the deal does not cover, but which we need to address — including ballistic missiles, what happens when the deal expires and Iran’s destabilizing regional activity.” May, Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Emmanuel Macron also pledged to “continue working closely” with the U.S. on the issue, including on “those issues that a new deal might cover.” NOT THE DECIDER: New national security adviser John Bolton, who as recently as last month dismissed the idea that the Iran deal could be fixed as “blue smoke and mirrors,” insists he is now serving as an honest broker in presenting options to the president. “It’s his call. I’m the national security adviser, not the national security decision-maker,” Bolton said on CBS. “What I said was what I believed. I don’t back away from them. But that’s not my job now. My job is to give advice to the president. He will make the decision.” PROMISES, PROMISES: North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is making more sweeping promises about denuclearization in return for guarantees that his country won’t be invaded by the U.S. As a goodwill gesture, Kim pledged to shut down his Punggye-ri nuclear test site within weeks, while international observers and foreign journalists look on, according to South Korea. Last week, Chinese scientists reported they believed the test facility at Mount Mantap in the northeast had collapsed and was unusable. But Kim reportedly told the South Koreans that there are two other secret tunnels that are perfectly serviceable. WHO ME? Despite his bellicose rhetoric of the past year, Kim reportedly told South Korean President Moon Jae-in in their meeting Friday that he never had any intention of nuking his neighbors or anyone else. “Although I am inherently resistant toward America, people will see that I am not the kind of person who fires nukes at South Korea, the Pacific or America,” a spokesman for Moon quoted Kim as saying. “Why would we keep nuclear weapons and live in a difficult condition if we often meet with Americans to build trust and they promise us to end the war and not to invade us?” Kim said. KEY WORD IS ‘IRREVERSIBLE’: On ABC yesterday, Pompeo insisted Trump would not repeat the mistakes of past negotiations, in which sanctions against North Korea were lifted before there were concrete, verifiable and irreversible results. “We use the word ‘irreversible’ with great intention,” Pompeo said. “We’re not going to take promises. We’re not going to take words. We’re going to look for actions and deeds. And until such time, the president has made it incredibly clear we will keep the pressure campaign in place until we achieve that.” WE’VE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE: “The North Koreans have already agreed to this. They agreed to it in 1992 with South Korea and they have pledged similar things since then,” Bolton pointed out on Fox News Sunday. “It’s also the case that they’ve lied about it and broken their commitments, just one reason there’s nobody in the Trump administration starry-eyed about what may happen here.” THE LIBYA MODEL: Despite the fact that it didn’t end so well for Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, Bolton suggested Libya’s decision to give up its nuclear and chemical weapons program could be a template for a North Korean denuclearization agreement. “We have very much in mind the Libya model from 2003, 2004. There are obviously differences. The Libyan program was much smaller, but that was basically the agreement that we made,” Bolton said on Fox. “Will President Trump insist that Kim give up, ship out, all of his nuclear weapons, all of his nuclear fuel, all of his ballistic missiles, before the U.S. makes any concessions?” asked host Chris Wallace. “Yes, I think that’s what denuclearization means,” Bolton replied. ‘NOBEL, NOBEL’: At his Michigan rally Saturday night, Trump was already taking a victory lap, claiming full credit for the remarkable turn of events on the Korean Peninsula, as an adoring crowd nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize with chants of “Nobel! Nobel!” “That’s very nice, thank you. That’s very nice,” Trump said, smiling almost sheepishly. Nevertheless, Trump said the breakthrough showed his critics were dead wrong all along. “‘He is going to get us into nuclear war,’ they said. No. No. No. Strength is going to keep us out of nuclear war. Not going to get us in,” he told the crowd. “We are doing very well. I spoke to the president this morning of South Korea for a long time. They just had a very good meeting. He gives us tremendous credit. Gives us all the credit.” On Friday in his meeting with Merkel, Trump insisted he won’t be “played” like past presidents. “The United States has been played beautifully, like a fiddle, because you had a different kind of a leader. We’re not going to be played, OK? We’re going to hopefully make a deal, if we don’t, that’s fine.” A WORD OF CAUTION: Many experts are warning against unwarranted exuberance this soon in the process, and point out the many ways a nuclear deal could fail to come to fruition. We have compiled some expert opinion here about why it may be too soon to pop the champagne. Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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DEADLY KABUL ATTACK: Islamic State fighters have struck again in Kabul, once again underscoring the lack of security in the Afghan capital and the rise of ISIS as a threat alongside the Taliban. Today’s bombing killed at least 25 people, including eight journalists, according to the AP. The attack was particularly insidious because it employed two bombs: an initial blast, and then a second explosion designed to kill the people who responded to the first bomb. Among the victims was Shah Marai, Agence France-Presse’s chief photographer in Afghanistan, the news agency confirmed in a tweet. A FORCE FOR SYRIA: In Saudi Arabia, a big topic on Pompeo’s talks with leadership was the future of Syria, once the U.S. leaves. Reporters traveling with him asked if after meeting with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabia was ready to contribute ground troops to a stabilization force. “We need to make sure we get it right. This is literally a situation so complex you want to measure twice and cut once, right?” Pompeo said. “I want to make sure we have our policies completely aligned, and at that time we’ll sit down and talk about how it’s the case that we can best make sure … that this is not America alone working on this, it is the Gulf states working alongside us to take care of their own region.” MEANWHILE IN SYRIA: Syrian government forces Sunday captured four villages east of the Euphrates River in the eastern province of Deir el-Zour after rare clashes with U.S.-backed Kurdish-led fighters. And the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports a missile attack targeting government outposts in Syria’s northern region killed 26 pro-government fighters, mostly Iranians. The Pentagon says it wasn’t us, casting suspicion on Israel. UPCOMING LOW-YIELD NUKE DEBATE: The Trump administration’s plans to two new varieties of nuclear weapons into the U.S. arsenal will face one of its first legislative tests this month. The House Armed Services Committee is teeing up a debate on the proposed lower-yield ballistic missiles launched from submarines and sea-based cruise missiles on May 9 that will likely focus on whether they will make nuclear war with Russia more or less likely. “That is going to be dealt with at full committee,” Rep. Mike Rogers, the chairman of the Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee, said last week. “They’ll be debated, I am certain, at length at full committee.” Rep. Mac Thornberry, the Armed Services chairman, and Rep. Adam Smith, the top Democrat, decided the nuclear weapons along with other more controversial issues should be openly debated by all members. Rogers and others have argued for authorizing and funding the new weapons, especially after Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed to have developed a new nuclear cruise missile and underwater nuclear drone. But Democrats on the House Armed Services Committee are likely to push back. Smith has called the development of a lower-yield warhead for ballistic missiles and the resurrection of the cruise missile “ill-advised and dangerous” as well as an unnecessary drain on resources. BUILDING TRUST WITH NORTH KOREA: The U.S. has the best diplomatic opportunity now with North Korea since the two countries went to war more than six decades ago, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Friday. But he told reporters at the Pentagon that negotiations will need to build trust, and he could not say whether the regime will carry out any deal struck on its nuclear weapons program. “I don’t have a crystal ball, I can tell you we are optimistic right now that there’s opportunity here that we have never enjoyed since 1950,” he said during a meeting with Poland’s defense minister. “So, we’re going to have to see what they produce, but that’s going to have to take diplomats working. I’m not going to calculate anything.” THE DOCTOR IS OUT: Ronny Jackson won’t return to his role as White House physician after he withdrew himself from consideration to be the next Veterans Affairs secretary, according to Politico. Sean Conley, the naval officer who replaced Jackson as Trump’s personal doctor, will continue to treat the president. On Saturday, Trump called for Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, the ranking member on the panel who spoke publicly about the accusations, to resign. “The great people of Montana will not stand for this kind of slander when talking of a great human being. Admiral Jackson is the kind of man that those in Montana would most respect and admire, and now, for no reason whatsoever, his reputation has been shattered. Not fair, Tester!” Trump tweeted. Later at his Michigan rally, Trump said “I know things about Tester that I can say, too, and if I said them, he’d never be elected again.” MISSING TREE MYSTERY: The tree that Trump and Macron planted on the White House lawn last week is no longer there. Macron gifted the tree to Trump as a memorial from the Belleau Wood site in France, where almost 2,000 U.S. Marines died in a World War I battle. The leaders planted the oak sapling Monday when Macron visited the White House, but by the end of the week, the tree was gone. The French say there’s a reason. An official from Macron’s office told Reuters Sunday the tree had been dug up because of parasites on it that could spread to others on the White House grounds. The tree will be replanted soon. THE RUNDOWN AFP: N. Korea offers to shut nuclear test site in May New York Times: Kim Prepared to Cede Nuclear Weapons if U.S. Pledges Not to Invade Business Insider: Russia has ‘stepped on the gas’ with its submarine fleet — and NATO is on alert Reuters: U.S. concerned by ‘destabilizing and malign activities’ of Iran: Pompeo Wall Street Journal: Weapons Training Likely Causes Brain Injury in Troops, Study Says CNN: 3 Marines charged with rape Breaking Defense: Big Hypersonic News Coming; Faster Progress Likely: Roper |
CalendarMONDAY | APRIL 30 11:30 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. Book Talk on “Silent Invasion” by Clive Hamilton. csbaonline.org 12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Space 2.0: U.S. Competitiveness and Policy in the New Space Era. hudson.org 1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book Talk on “Losing Hearts and Minds: American-Iranian Relations and International Education during the Cold War” with author Matthew Shannon. csis.org 2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. An Assessment of the Inter-Korea Summit: Views from South Korea, U.S. and China. stimson.org TUESDAY | MAY 1 8 a.m. 300 First Street SE. The Nuclear Deterrent Breakfast Series: The GBSD and B-21/LRSO: Nuclear Deterrent Futures Lt. Gen. Jack Weinstein, Deputy Chief of Staff. mitchellaerospacepower.org 9 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Denuclearizing North Korea: Practicalities and Politics. carnegieendowment.org 10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Army Vision and Modernization Priorities with Secretary Mark Esper. atlanticcouncil.org 12:15 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. Iraq After ISIS: What to Do Now. newamerica.org WEDNESDAY | MAY 2 6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Institute of Land Warfare Breakfast Series with Lt. Gen. Timothy Kadavy, Director of the Army National Guard. ausa.org 7:30 a.m. 2300 Dulles Corner Blvd. 2018 Spring IPM Division Meeting. ndia.org 8 a.m. 300 First Street SE. The Nuclear Deterrent Breakfast Series: The NPR Challenges with Dave Trachtenberg, Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. mitchellaerospacepower.org 9 a.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Fifth Annual Security Forum on the U.S.-Japan Alliance: Deepening Ties While Confronting New Challenges. spfusa.org 4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW. Annual Meeting of the U.S. Naval Institute with Adm. John Richardson, Chief of Naval Operations. usni.org THURSDAY | MAY 3 8 a.m. 300 First Street SE. The Nuclear Deterrent Breakfast Series: The Emerging Strategic Environment. mitchellaerospacepower.org 8 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. Workshop: Comparing Defense Innovation in Advanced and Catch-up Countries. csbaonline.org 10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Japan’s Security Strategy: A Political Update from Nagata-cho. csis.org 4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Cyber Risk Thursday: Building a Defensible Cyberspace. atlanticcouncil.org 6:30 p.m. 1301 Constitution Ave. NW. The Heroes of Military Medicine Awards with Gen. Joseph Votel, Commander of U.S. Central Command. hjfcp3.org FRIDAY | MAY 4 9:15 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. 2018 Atlantic Council-East Asia Foundation Strategic Dialogue, Scaling the Summits: The Future of a Denuclearized Korean Peninsula with Sen. Edward Markey. atlanticcouncil.org 2 p.m. Time for Action in the Western Balkans: Policy Prescriptions for American Diplomacy. usip.org MONDAY | MAY 7 8:45 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Spring Summitry on the Korean Peninsula: Peace Breaking Out or Last Gasp Diplomacy? csis.org 9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. An Air Force Operations Analysis Brief Discussion with Lt. Gen. Jerry Harris, Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff. mitchellaerospacepower.org 1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Four Years of Sanctions: Assessing the Impact on the Russian Economy and Foreign Policy with Sen. Ben Cardin. csis.org 2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. A Conversation about “The Odyssey of Echo Company: Looking back on Vietnam and the Tet Offensive” with author Doug Stanton. csis.org 2 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Future of War and Challenges for Humanitarians with President of the ICRC Peter Maurer. wilsoncenter.org |
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