Specter of Thanksgiving government shutdown looms as Pentagon backers struggle for compromise to keep funds flowing

The Pentagon is nervously watching the clock tick down on the stalled budget negotiations on Capitol Hill. With the House in recess this week, this leaves only eight legislative days during which to act before the current funding expires.

There are 12 appropriations bills that keep the various federal agencies funded. Unlike last year, when the Pentagon got its money on Oct 1, this year none of the 12 were passed on time.

AND THEN THERE’S THE NDAA: As we all learned in civics class, there are appropriation bills and there are authorization bills. It takes both to pass before any new money can be spent.

Senate Armed Services Chairman Jim Inhofe is continuing to press for a fall-back plan as House Democrats are blocking agreement on the defense policy bill, known as the National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA. Inhofe has introduced the Essential National Security Authorities Act for Fiscal Year 2020, which he has dubbed a “skinny” NDAA.

“These authorizations affect troop pay, our ability to defend our country and our partners overseas, and good-government procurement that will save taxpayer dollars,” said an aide to the Senate Armed Services Committee. “Chairman Inhofe wants to be sure that all options are on the table, so the skinny bill was filed as a backstop,” the aide said over the weekend.

The Democrats, led by Rep. Adam Smith, chairman of the House Armed Services committee, are insisting on including provision that would block President Trump from shifting anymore military construction funds to extend barriers and fencing along the U.S-Mexico border.

THE IMPEACHMENT FACTOR: The NDAA has not always been passed on time, but it has always passed before the next calendar year. That could be a challenge this year, especially with Congress consumed with impeachment hearings and a possible trial in the Senate.

There are only 23 scheduled legislative days left in the Senate and 16 in the House, and Inhofe and others are concerned that the Senate’s time could be entirely consumed by impeachment well into January, leaving no time for legislating.

And It’s not just a matter of House-Senate negotiators cutting a deal. As with the appropriations bills, there is a math problem with an ever-shrinking window to get legislation passed. From the time when an agreement is reached, it will take approximately 20 days to process the NDAA, according the committee aide.

That means, even in the best case scenario, in which a compromise is reached next week after the House’s Veterans Day recess, a bill could not be brought to the floor until the first week of December, at the earliest.

THE OVER/UNDER ON GOING THROUGH THE BORDER WALL: President Trump is fond of bragging, as he did last month in a speech in Pittsburgh, that “we’re building a beautiful wall, a big one that really works, that you can’t get over, you can’t get under.” Through, it seems, is another matter.

Over the weekend The Washington Post reported that smuggling gangs in Mexico have repeatedly sawed through new sections of border wall in recent months, using a common cordless reciprocating saw that sells for as little as $100, citing U.S. agents and officials with knowledge of the damage.

“When fitted with specialized blades, the saws can slice through one of the barrier’s steel-and-concrete bollards in minutes, according to the agents, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the barrier-defeating techniques,” the Post said.

“I haven’t heard that,” Trump said Saturday when asked about the report. “We have a very powerful wall, but no matter how powerful, you can cut through anything, in all fairness.”

Trump said the occasional breach wasn’t a problem. “Cutting is one thing, but it’s easily fixed,” he said. “One of the reasons we did it the way we did it — it’s very easily fixed to put the [bollards] back in. But we have a very powerful wall. But you can cut through any wall.”

The Post report noted some damage has happened in areas where construction crews have not yet finished installing sensors that detect the vibrations that sawing produces, and it cited current and former CBP officials who said the new bollard system remains far superior and more formidable than any previous design.

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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WHOSE OIL IS IT ANYWAY? One of the challenges of heading the Pentagon with President Trump as your commander in chief is reconciling your understanding of policy with the president’s off the cuff pronouncements.

The latest example: the relatively small oil fields now being guarded by U.S. troops in eastern Syria. President Trump continues to insist that oil now belongs to the United States to do with as it sees fit.

“We don’t have to defend the borders between Turkey and Syria,” Trump said at a rally in Tupelo, Mississippi Friday. “They’ve been fighting for a thousand years, but what we do is we did keep the oil if you don’t mind, we kept the oil.”

“And we’ll distribute that oil. We’ll help out the Kurds and we’ll help out other people. We’ll also help out ourselves if that’s OK,” he told the crowd.

Asked by reporters about Trump’s repeated claim, Defense Secretary Mark Esper described the mission differently, not as plundering, but as protecting the oil on behalf of the Kurdish-led Syrian Deomcratic Forces.

“We will secure oil fields to deny their access to ISIS and other actors in the region, and to ensure that the SDF has continued access, because those resources are important so that the SDF can do its mission,” Esper said.

When pressed about the divergence with his boss, Esper invoked the Mattis defense, that it was a difference without a distinction. “It’s, you know, half dozen, six,” he said. “I interpret that as deny ISIS access to the oil fields; secure them so that they are denied access to the oil fields.”

CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE: The American three-star general who leads the coalition to defeat ISIS issued a statement over the weekend acknowledging the help of “security partners in Iraq and Syria,” in the U.S. commando raid that resulted in the death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

“The success of the raid, to capture Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and his henchmen, was only possible because of the tremendous resolve, sacrifice, and commitment of dedicated military, intelligence, and security professionals in Iraq and Syria—many who were martyred or wounded in combat operations to crush Da’esh,” said Lt. Gen. Pat White, commander of Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve.

“The contributions of many nations in the Coalition made this mission possible. The Coalition and our partnered forces in Iraq and Syria remain committed to the mission to defeat Da’esh remnants and achieve regional stability.”

NOT A DROP OF BLOOD: President Trump continues to tout the withdrawal of U.S. forces from northern Syria as a great, bloodless victory.

“It is the job of our military to protect our security not to be the policeman of the world,” he said to applause at Friday’s rally in Tupelo. “Proving the wisdom of this approach, we recently secured a permanent cease-fire in Northern Syria without spilling one drop of American blood, not one blood.”

Then he corrected himself. “Actually, I have to be honest,” Trump said. “One soldier stepped on a nail, it’s true. I said, ‘Don’t tell the press that because they’ll say, but one soldier stepped on a nail.’”

THE FIGHT CONTINUES: Meanwhile American commanders keep reminding us that while ISIS no longer holds territory, it is not defeated.

The coalition continues to pump out press releases that describe ongoing operations against ISIS in both Iraq and Syria, including destroying caves and tunnels that ISIS fighters have been using as hideouts.

And over the weekend ISIS fighters in Sinai and Bangladesh published photos showing their fighters pledging allegiance to the newly appointed “caliph” Abu Ibrahim Al-Hashimi Al-Qurayshi, according to the Middle East Media Research Institute, a terrorist monitoring group.

The photos, which were posted on the ISIS Telegram channel, show several masked fighters raising their index fingers and bringing their hands together as they pledge of allegiance to their new leader.

NEW NUKE COMMANDER: The Senate last week confirmed Vice Adm. Charles Richard by voice vote to be the next head of U.S. Strategic Command, along with the requisite promotion to four-star rank.

Richard’s confirmation came just a week after he sailed through his confirmation hearing, in which like all previous commanders of U.S. nuclear forces, he affirmed his support for maintaining all three legs of America’s nuclear triad of bombers, land-based missiles, and submarines.

The Rundown

Reuters: U.S. opens national security investigation into TikTok – sources

Army Times: US soldiers relocate to Army’s new hub in Korea as North builds up weapons that can reach it

Agence France Presse: Iran’s Khamenei Rules Out Talks With U.S.

New York Times: Hong Kong Protesters Call for U.S. Help. China Sees a Conspiracy

Washington Post: Pentagon advisory board releases principles for ethical use of artificial intelligence in warfare

AP: Joint Turkish And Russian Patrols Begin In Syrian Region

Air Force Magazine: ISR Operations Begin at Nigerien Air Base 201

NPR: Closing The Open Skies

Bloomberg: Trump Lets Navy’s Chief Off the Hook Over an Offer to ‘Fire Me’

Stars and Stripes: McCain Skipper Says Ship Performed ‘Exceptionally Well’ In First Sea Trials Since 2017 Collision

Washington Post: López Obrador and Mexico’s military in rare public spat after ‘El Chapo’s’ son is freed

NPR: In A Remote Arctic Outpost, Norway Keeps Watch On Russia’s Military Buildup

Task & Purpose: It’s not bias to ask if Trump and the Pentagon know what they are doing

Calendar

MONDAY | NOVEMBER 4

9 a.m. 2043 Rayburn — American Historical Association’s National History Center briefing on “The Geopolitics of Middle East Oil,” with David Painter, professor of international history at Georgetown University; Anand Toprani, professor at the U.S. Naval War College; and Nathan Citino, historian at Rice University. https://nationalhistorycenter.org/event

12:30 p.m. 1025 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — SETA Foundation discussion on “The New Geopolitical Realities for Russia,” with Nursin Guney, professor at Bahcesehir University; Ellen Wasylina, CEO of the Transatlantic Global Advisory; Gawdat Baghdat, professor at the National Defense University; Visne Korkmaz, associate professor at Yildiz Technical University; and Kilic Kanat, research director at SETA. https://setadc.org/events

3:30 p.m. 1957 E St. N.W. — George Washington University Institute for Korean Studies forum on “Nuclear and Conventional Arms Control on the Koran Peninsula,” Yong-Sup Han, professor at Korea National Defense University; Young-Jun Kim, professor at Korea National Defense University; Joanna Spear, associate professor at GWU; and Yonho Kim, associate director of the GWU Institute for Korean Studies. http://elliott.gwu.edu

TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 5

12:30 p.m. 37th and O Sts. N.W. — Georgetown University Center for Contemporary Arab Studies discussion on “After the U.S. Withdrawal: What’s Next for Russia and Turkey in Syria?” with Hassan Hassan, director of the Center for Global Policy’s Nonstate Actors Program; Ilhan Tanir, executive editor of Ahval News; Angela Stent, director of Eurasian, Russian and East European studies at Georgetown University; Marwa Daoudy, assistant professor at Georgetown University; and Mark Katz, professor of government and politics at George Mason University https://ceres.georgetown.edu/event

1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Building a Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula,” with Former U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Korea Mark Lippert, Korea chair at CSIS, among others. https://www.csis.org/events

2:30 p.m. 1957 E St. N.W. — George Washington University Institute for Korean Studies lecture on Ernest Belthell, the first foreign journalist to be based in Korea, and the role of propaganda and disinformation in setting the political agenda and the manipulation of media, with John Burton, Washington columnist at Korea Times; and Yonho Kim, associate research professor of practice and associate director of GWU Institute for Korean Studies http://elliott.gwu.edu

WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 6

7:30 a.m. 300 First St. S.E. — Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein speaks at Air Force Association Breakfast Series. https://www.afa.org/events/calendar

8:30 a.m. 1301 K St. N.W. — Washington Post Live a discussion on “Veterans in America,” with Veterans’ Affairs ranking member Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont.; Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan.; Kayla Williams, director of the Center for a New American Security’s Military, Veterans, and Society Program; Medal of Honor recipient David Bellavia; and Elliot Ackerman, author of “Green on Blue” Livestream at https://www.washingtonpost.com/post-live

8:45 a.m. 2399 Richmond Hwy — International Quality and Productivity Center Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance and Command and Control Battle Management Conference, with Kenneth Bray, acting associate deputy Air Force chief of staff for ISR; Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Stephen Wilson; and British Army Brig. Gen. Ben Kite, capability, strategy and development head at the British Army Information Directorate https://www.defenceiq.com/events-isrusa

10:30 a.m. 1025 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — SETA Foundation discussion on “The Future of U.S. Policy on Syria,” with Mona Yacoubian, senior adviser for Syria, the Middle East and North Africa at the U.S. Institute of Peace; Luke Coffey, director of the Heritage Foundation Center for Foreign Policy; Kilic Kanat, research director at the SETA Foundation at Washington, D.C.; and Kadir Ustun, executive director of the SETA Foundation. https://setadc.org/events

10:30 a.m. 37th and O Sts. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion “30 Years Later: Lessons from the Fall of the Berlin Wall,” with former Secretary of State James Baker; and former White House Press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

12:30 p.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy — Naval Submarine League symposium “Accelerating in a New Direction,” with Adm. Frank Caldwell, director of Naval Reactors; and Navy Program Executive Officer for Submarines Rear Adm. David Goggins. https://www.navalsubleague.org/events

THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 7

7:55 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy. — Naval Submarine League symposium “Accelerating in a New Direction,” with Pacific Fleet Submarine Force Commander Rear Adm. Blake Converse speaking at 10:45 a.m.; and Assistant Navy Secretary for Research, Development and Acquisition James Geurts at 12 p.m. https://www.navalsubleague.org/events

8 a.m. 2201 G St. N.W. — Defense Writers Group breakfast with Lisa Gordon-Hagerty, undersecretary of energy for nuclear security and NNSA administrator. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu

8 a.m. 950 New York Ave. N.W. — Defense One Outlook 2020 live summit with R. Clarke Cooper, assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs; Amb. James Jeffrey, special representative for syria engagement; Richard Fontaine, deputy director-general for the International Institute for Strategic Studies; Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn.; Sen. Chris Van Hollen D-Md.; Jonathan Capehart, opinion writer The Washington Post; Elise Jordan, columnist, TIME; Patricia Kim, senior policy analyst, China, U.S. Institute of Peace. https://www.defenseone.com/feature/outlook-2020

8 a.m. 789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Blurring the Line: Politics and the Military in a Post-9/11 America.” Livestream at http://www.american.com/watch/aei-livestream

8:30 a.m.1001 16th St. N.W. — American Bar Association “Annual Review of the Field of National Security Law,” with Dana Boente, general counsel at the FBI, and Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Demers. https://www.americanbar.org/events

FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 8

12:15 p.m. 1777 F St, N.W. — Council on Foreign Relations discussion “Stabilizing Venezuela: What Now?” with former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela William Brownfield; former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela Patrick Dennis Duddy, director of the Duke University Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies; Francisco Rodriguez, director of the Oil for Venezuela Foundation; Cynthia Arnson, director of the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Latin American Program; and Stephen Donehoo, managing partner at McLarty Associates. http://www.cfr.org

12:30 p.m. 14th and F St. N.W. — National Press Club newsmaker luncheon address with Veterans Affairs Secretary Robert Wilkie. https://www.press.org/events