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TRUMP WEIGHS DEFENSE CUTS: Last night at two rallies in Mississippi, President Trump told voters it was important to return Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith to Congress to protect his plan to rebuild America’s depleted military. “We are taking care of our veterans, and our military will soon be more powerful than it has ever been before,” he told the crowd in Biloxi. “To protect these amazing achievements, Mississippi must defend our Senate Republican majority.” The Republicans will have a two- or three-vote majority in the Senate, no matter the outcome of today’s runoff election, in which Hyde-Smith is a heavy favorite over Democrat Mike Espy. But the trajectory of the spending plan to rebuild the military is less certain, now that Trump is ready to declare “mission accomplished” after two budget cycles and has ordered an overall five percent cut. LAYING OUT THE TRADE-OFFS: The Pentagon plans to brief the president this week on practical implications of his order to slash $33 billion from projected defense spending next year. A slim-downed $700 billion request to Congress could halt the rebuilding of the forces and drain money from the purchase and development of new, more modern weapons, such as hypersonic missiles. “What I want the president to understand when we bring forward this budget is: what are those tradeoffs?” Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan said last week in a session with Pentagon reporters. In this week’s magazine, we look at how Trump’s budget plan is also playing into the complex dance of negotiations on Capitol Hill when Democrats take over the House in January. UNDERCUTTING REPUBLICANS: So far, the Republican strategy on the Hill seems to be starting high, with a defense topline of $733 billion. It’s what Armed Services Chairman Sen. Jim Inhofe has said: “Should be considered a floor, not a ceiling.” But once the president made his five percent budget cut public, with an offhand remark at the White House last month, he gave away a key bargaining chip. “From a bargaining perspective, it seems to me that it might’ve made more sense for the administration to hold off on the announcement of that cut from before the election because then they could have granted it to the Democrats afterward — but now they’ve already played that card,” said Travis Sharp, a defense budget analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. The move is akin to flubbing arms control negotiations with the Russians, Sharp argues. “If you declare before you even go to the negotiation, ‘We’re going to unilaterally cut our nuclear weapons force by 500 missiles,’ then you can’t then offer that up to the Russians as some part of the bargaining process,” he said. “They’re just going to say, ‘No, you decided to do that on your own. That has nothing to do with us.’” NOT SO FAST ON DEMOCRAT CUTS: In recent months, Rep. Adam Smith has made clear he will be critical of more big defense hikes when he takes over as House Armed Services chairman next year. But it may not be in Democrats’ interest to make any deep cuts to the Pentagon, said Seamus Daniels, a defense budget analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That is because Democrats and Republicans have to renegotiate caps on defense and nondefense spending under the Budget Control Act. If the two caps remain equal next year, any defense cuts would also cut into the Democrats’ nondefense priorities. “It’s not in Democrats’ interest to push for a decrease in defense spending when that could, at the same time, lower the potential increase that they get for nondefense spending above the cap levels,” Daniels said. “Democrats and Republicans could easily make a deal where defense spending is more than [Trump’s] $700 billion top-line and that would be in the interest of both parties because non-defense spending would also increase more.” SASC HEARS CASE FOR MORE SPENDING: Two weeks ago, the congressionally-mandated Commission on the National Defense Strategy said years of budget cuts have “significantly weakened” America’s defense, by degrading the size, modernization, and readiness of the military. “The convergence of these trends has created a crisis of national security,” its 116-page report concluded. This morning the Senate Armed Services Committee gets its chance to probe the findings. Ambassador Eric Edelman and retired Adm. Gary Roughead, the former chief of naval operations, testify at 9:30 on the report and its conclusion that the U.S is at risk of being overwhelmed if it had to fight on two or more fronts simultaneously — and could well lose a war with Russia or China. Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY, SHIPBUILDING HEARING: Before the midterms, Sen. Inhofe promised an Armed Services hearing on the quest for a 355-ship Navy. The committee’s seapower subcommittee, headed by Sen. Roger Wicker, will make good on that pledge at 2:30 p.m., with a hearing on the service’s shipbuilding. Testimony includes Assistant Navy Secretary James Geurts; Vice Adm. William Merz, deputy chief of naval operations; and Deputy Marine Corps Commandant Lt. Gen. David Berger. RANGER KILLED BY FRIENDLY FIRE: After further review, the U.S. has determined the death of an elite Army Ranger Nov. 24 in Afghanistan was the result of friendly fire, during what was described as a “close-quarter battle” in which U.S. and Afghan forces engaged al Qaeda militants in Nimroz province. “An initial review indicates Sgt. [Leandro] Jasso was likely accidentally shot by our Afghan partner force,” said a statement issued by Operation Resolute Support this morning. “There are no indications he was shot intentionally.” “The loss of Sgt. Jasso is felt by his family and loved ones, by all who served with him and by all on this mission to protect our country and our allies,” said Gen. Scott Miller, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan. PUTIN’S POWER PLAY: In his naval confrontation with Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is testing Trump in the same way he did with President Barack Obama in 2014, when he annexed Crimea, in the view of one Senate Democrat. “President Putin will go as far as the free world will let him go. He’s seen very little consequence to taking over Crimea. There still has not been a strong reaction to his campaign in Ukraine,” said Sen. Ben Cardin on CNN. “So now he’s affecting the shipping channel that’s critically important for the Ukraine. And he expects that there will be a very timid response by the west. So, he’s testing again.” TIME TO GET TOUGH: The U.S. and Europe should send more NATO forces into the Black Sea if Putin doesn’t back off, argues Republican Sen. Inhofe. The Armed Services Committee chairman suggests more arms sales to Ukraine and additional sanctions against Moscow may also be needed, because Putin is “not serious about peace,” and seeks only to advance his power in the region. “The United States, with our European allies, must take action to reinforce our commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and restoration of its territorial integrity,” Inhofe said in a statement. “If Putin continues his Black Sea bullying, the United States and Europe must consider imposing additional sanctions on Russia, inserting a greater U.S. and NATO presence in the Black Sea region and increasing military assistance for Ukraine.” New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez says Trump should send Ukraine “lethal maritime equipment and weapons” in response to Russia’s seizure of three Ukrainian naval vessels. “Yesterday’s events show that the Kremlin remains sharply intent on weakening Ukraine’s security and democratic trajectory,” said the top Senate Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee. TRUMP’S TEPID RESPONSE: President Trump, who has often blamed Obama for allowing Putin to seize Crimea, seemed to blame both sides yesterday. “We do not like what’s happening — either way, we don’t like what’s happening and hopefully it’ll get straightened out,” he told reporters on the South Lawn before departing for Mississippi. “I know Europe is not — they are not thrilled, they’re working on it, too. We’re all working on it together.” Trump is scheduled to meet with Putin on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Argentina at the end of the week. HALEY BLASTS MOSCOW: At the United Nations, outgoing U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley was pulling no punches, accusing Russia of “outlaw actions,” and an “outrageous violation of sovereign Ukrainian territory.” “Ukrainian ships set sail from one Ukrainian port to another Ukrainian port. They attempted to do so by the only possible way to go, through the Kerch Strait. Both Russia and Ukraine use the strait routinely. But this time, Russia decided to prevent passage of the Ukrainian ships, rammed them, and then opened fire on them,” Haley said an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council. “This is no way for a law-abiding, civilized nation to act.” In the name of President Trump, Haley called on Russia to “immediately cease its unlawful conduct and respect the navigational rights and freedoms of all states.” SENATE TO GET SAUDI BRIEF: The full Senate is slated to get a briefing from the Pentagon and State Department tomorrow about Saudi Arabia and the Yemen war, a source in the chamber tells the Washington Examiner. The briefing, which could be conducted by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, comes as arms sales to the Saudis are stalled in the Senate and lawmakers push a Magnitsky Act investigation. That would force President Trump to formally say whether his administration believes the Saudi crown prince is responsible for the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. KAINE WANTS A WAR VOTE: The pressure on Saudi Arabia and its Yemen war ratcheted up Monday when Sen. Tim Kaine, a member of both the Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, called for a vote this week on the conflict. A bipartisan joint resolution co-sponsored by Sens. Mike Lee (R), Bernie Sanders (I) and Chris Murphy (D) would end U.S. support to the Saudi-led coalition. House Republicans recently quashed a similar War Powers Resolution in that chamber. “The U.S. inserted itself into a civil war that’s killed thousands of civilians and forced millions more to the brink of famine,” Kaine said in a statement. “As President Trump doubles down on his support for Saudi Arabia in the wake of the state-sponsored murder of Jamal Khashoggi, the burden falls on Congress to stand up for American values across the globe and stop our engagement in this conflict. The Senate should vote this week to end U.S. support for this devastating war, and then turn our focus to a peace process and humanitarian aid.” MIGRANTS ‘NOT ASYLUM-SEEKERS’: The top Border Patrol official in San Diego, Calif., says he doesn’t consider the migrant mob that tried to breach the border to be asylum-seekers. “If they were truly asylum-seekers they would have walked up with their hands up and surrendered,” San Diego Sector Chief Patrol Agent Rodney Scott told CNN. “What I saw on the border yesterday was not people walking up to Border Patrol agents and asking to claim asylum,” Scott said. Instead, he characterized the migrants as economic immigrants, seeking a better life in the United States. Scott also defended the use of tear gas against members of a migrant group, because they assaulted law enforcement personnel while trying to break through the barrier. “When the threat is to our personnel or to protect others, you gotta do what you gotta do,” he said. “What we saw over and over yesterday is that the group, the caravan as we call them, would push women and children to the front and then begin basically rocking our agents.” Asked about the use of tear gas on a group that included children, Trump yesterday said, “They had to use because they were being rushed by some very tough people and they used tear gas. And here’s the bottom line: nobody’s coming into our country unless they come in legally.” NEW BOEING VP FOR DEFENSE: Boeing says Bob Simmons will be its new senior corporate liaison to the Defense Department as well as NASA and the Department of Homeland Security. Simmons, a former House Armed Services staff director, currently leads Boeing’s lobbying efforts on Capitol Hill. He will replace as vice president of defense, space, and security, government operations Leo Brooks, who plans to retire. THE WAR ON KNOCKOFFS: The U.S. government has taken down more than 1 million website domains it says were being used to sell counterfeit items online, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The federal immigration agency said Monday it worked with 26 countries on the yearlong effort, dubbed Operation in Our Sites. THE RUNDOWN ABC News: Jared Kushner pushed to inflate Saudi arms deal to $110 billion: Sources Defense News: US lawmakers urge Trump to arm Ukraine, break silence on Russian blockade Task and Purpose: The Real Reason Why The Top US General In Afghanistan Carried An M4 Carbine Washington Post: Why tear gas, lobbed at migrants on the southern border, is banned in warfare Washington Post: Trump nominee sunk by ‘Fat Leonard’ corruption scandal Defense One: Ukraine: Intercepted Communications Suggest Kremlin Directed Azov Sea Crisis Military.com: US Carrier’s Port Call a Possible Gesture Ahead of Trump-Xi Showdown Air Force Times: In wake of tragic plane crash, Goldfein and Wright try to rally Air Guardsmen in Puerto Rico War is Boring: To Equip Its New Armed Forces, Iraq Shopped Around Air Force Magazine: Suspension of US, South Korean Exercises Hasn’t Impacted USAF Readiness, for Now |
CalendarTUESDAY | NOV. 27 7:30 a.m. 801 Mt Vernon Pl. NW. 55th Annual AOC International Symposium and Convention with Dana Deasy, Defense Department Chief Information Officer. crows.org 9 a.m. 2018 Global Security Forum: Prospects and Priorities for U.S. Gray Zone Competition with Retired Adm. Mike Rogers and William Lynn, CEO of Leonardo DRS. csis.org 9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Press Briefing: The State of the U.S. Defense Industrial Base. csis.org 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Findings and Recommendations of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy with Ambassador Eric Edelman and Retired Adm. Gary Roughead, Co-Chairs of the Commission. armed-services.senate.gov 10 a.m. House 137. Recalibrating Middle East Policy. Defensepriorities.org 11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Army Col. Sean Ryan, spokesman, Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve briefs reporters on operations in Iraq and Syria by video from Baghdad. Streamed live on www.defense.gov/live. 2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. India and Pakistan 10 Years After the Mumbai Attacks. usip.org 2:30 p.m. Russell 220. Subcommittee Hearing on Navy Shipbuilding Programs with Assistant Navy Secretary James Geurts; Vice Adm. William Merz, Deputy Chief of Naval Operations; and Deputy Marine Corps Commandant Lt. Gen. David Berger. armed-services.senate.gov WEDNESDAY | NOV. 28 7:30 a.m. 801 Mt Vernon Pl. NW. 55th Annual AOC International Symposium and Convention with Ellen Lord, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, and Gen. Paul Selva, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. crows.org 9 a.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Commission on the National Defense Strategy Discusses Its Report to Congress with Ambassador Eric Edelman and Retired Adm. Gary Roughead. said-jhu.edu 9 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. Soft Power in a Sharp Power World: Countering Coercion and Information Warfare with Reps. Francis Rooney and Don Beyer. usip.org 10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Maritime Security Dialogue: The Return of Great Power Competition and the Second Fleet with Vice Adm. Andrew “Woody” Lewis. csis.org Noon. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Russia’s Serial Violations: The INF and Beyond. heritage.org THURSDAY | NOV. 29 7:30 a.m. 801 Mt Vernon Pl. NW. 55th Annual AOC International Symposium and Convention with Rep. Don Bacon. crows.org 8:15 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. China’s Power: Up for Debate with Adm. Philip Davidson, Commander of United States Indo-Pacific Command. csis.org 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Hearing on Nominations of Thomas McCaffery to be Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs, and William Bookless to be Principal Deputy Administrator for the National Nuclear Security Administration. armed-services.senate.gov 2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. U.S. Policy Toward Syria (Part II) with James Jeffrey, Special Representative for Syria Engagement. foreignaffairs.house.gov FRIDAY | NOV. 30 9:30 a.m. 1001 16th St. NW. Saudi Arabia and UAE: Regional Adventures and U.S. Interests with Sen. Rand Paul. ff.org MONDAY | DEC. 3 8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Robotics Division Quarterly Meeting. ndia.org 9:30 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. Press Freedom Book Talk: Lindsey Hilsum on war correspondent Marie Colvin. press.org 1:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Belarus and Eastern Europe Security Challenges. wilsoncenter.org 5:30 p.m. Rape as a Weapon of War: A Conversation with Former Kosovo President Atifete Jahjaga. csis.org TUESDAY | DEC. 4 8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. PONI 2018 Winter Conference. csis.org 8:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Arctic and U.S. National Security with Sen. Lisa Murkowski; Sen. Dan Sullivan; Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy, U.S. Northern Command; and Adm. Karl Schultz, Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard. wilsoncenter.org 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Hearing on the Nominations of Lt. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie to be Commander of U.S. Central Command, and Lt. Gen. Richard Clarke to be Commander of U.S. Special Operations Command. armed-services.senate.gov 10 a.m. 1957 E St. NW. A Discussion With the Department of Justice’s Domestic Counterterrorism Coordinator Thomas Brzozowski. extremism.gwu.edu 10 a.m. 300 First St. SE. INF: Deterrence, Arms Control, and Great Power Competition Panel Discussion. mitchellaerospacepower.org 10 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. Voices of the Afghan People. usip.org 12:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Asia Transnational Threats Forum: Counterterrorism in Asia. brookings.edu 5:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. 50 Years of Propaganda – A Glimpse into North Korean Domestic Initiatives. stimson.org 6 p.m. 1425 K St. NW. NDIA Washington, D.C. Chapter Holiday Networking Social. ndia.org |
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