‘LOOKING AT DIFFERENT OPTIONS’: The Pentagon is considering a range of options for the eventual withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Afghanistan but is refusing to comment on a report in the New York Times that among the options is one that would bring all American troops home before the November presidential election.
“I think it’s been clear for some time that the U.S. has been looking at different options and how we are going to continue with our presence in Afghanistan,” said Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman at a Monday briefing for reporters. “But I have no update for you on numbers. I would not share with you what potential options that we would be discussing with the president though.”
MULTIPLE OPTIONS: The New York Times report, which is said to be based on “conversations with five officials familiar with the debate over the troop withdrawal,” says the Pentagon is preparing “multiple options” to present to President Trump in the coming days.
“One would give Mr. Trump the option of pulling all forces from the country before Election Day. But the Pentagon has other options that would withdraw forces more slowly, with one plan sticking close to the current timeline that would keep American forces in the country until May 2021,” the New York Times reports.
But the Pentagon plans to propose and advocate for a slower withdrawal schedule, officials said, believing a “quick withdrawal from Afghanistan would effectively doom the peace deal reached this year with the Taliban.”
“The bottom line is: We have said for many, many months and years now that the future of Afghanistan is going to be best suited for peace when there is an agreement between the inter-Afghan parties,” said Hoffman at the Pentagon.
WE CAN ALWAYS GO BACK: Asked about the reports during a White House event, Trump acknowledged he wants to get all the U.S. troops out.
“We’re there 19 years. We’re really not acting as soldiers. We’re acting as police. And we’re not sent over there to be policemen. But we’re there 19 years. And, yeah, I think that’s enough,” he said. “We want to bring our soldiers back home. … We can always go back if we have to. If we have to go back, we’ll go back, and we’ll go back raging. And there, we’ll go back as warriors, fighters. But right now, we’re policing. And we’re not meant to be a police force. We’re meant to be a fighting force.”
PREEMPTIVE STRIKE: One of the president’s most stalwart supporters is also among the staunchest opponents of a full withdrawal of U.S. troops. Sen. Lindsey Graham put the administration on notice last week when rumors of the preelection pullout plan first surfaced.
In a letter to Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Graham cited a legal requirement that both the Pentagon and State Department jointly certify that any agreement between the United States and the Taliban will “further the objective of setting conditions for the long-term defeat of al Qaeda and the Islamic State and will not make the United States more vulnerable to terrorist attacks originating from Afghanistan or supported by terrorist elements in Afghanistan.”
“I cannot envision any agreement that does not allow for a residual counter-terrorism force combined with a robust intelligence gathering capability sufficient to protect our vital national security interests in the region as well as protecting the American homeland,” Graham writes, noting “the intelligence assessment regarding the consequences of a non-conditions based withdrawal from Afghanistan are horrendous for our national security interests, especially concerning threats to the homeland.”
‘TIMETABLE BASED ON THE ELECTION’: The president bristled last week when the Wall Street Journal suggested in an editorial that the Taliban might goad him into an impulsive withdrawal of all U.S. troops. “Could somebody please explain to them that we have been there for 19 years,” Trump tweeted in response. “Hardly impulsive.”
In a follow-up editorial published Memorial Day, the newspaper again warned against the so-called zero option. “Mr. Trump has asked the Pentagon for a plan to get to zero by October from some 9,500 troops today. That sounds like a timetable based on the election rather than facts on the ground,” the Journal said.
“The U.S. can reduce its force level, but it is folly to set an October withdrawal date pegged to the election. The key is to make any withdrawal based on conditions on the ground. The U.S. has sacrificed much in Afghanistan, but a rush to zero troops risks squandering the gains and limiting the U.S. ability to stage counter-terror operations.”
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Sivak and Tyler Van Dyke. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Weather permitting, Doug Hurley and Bob Behnken will make history by becoming the first astronauts to be sent into orbit by a private company. The veteran NASA astronauts are scheduled to ride SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon capsule to the International Space Station, marking the first launch of American astronauts on American rockets from American soil since the end of the space shuttle era in 2011.
With some thunderstorms forecast for the East Coast today, SpaceX and NASA officials say crew safety is the top priority. Liftoff from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station is scheduled for 4:33 p.m. EDT, but if conditions are not optimal, the next launch window would be Saturday.
Live video coverage and countdown commentary begin Wednesday at 12:15 p.m. Watch the launch and all prelaunch activities on NASA TV, YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, and Linkedin.
PENTAGON BEGINS PHASED OPENING: The Pentagon announced plans Tuesday to begin the gradual easing of rules and restrictions aimed at preventing the spread of COVID-19, including relaxing a stop-movement order that had frozen many military members and their families in place.
“While the COVID-19 pandemic still presents risk to DOD service members, their families, and our civilian workforce, improving conditions warrant a transition in our approach to domestic and overseas personnel travel to a conditions-based, phased approach to personnel movement and travel,” the Pentagon said in its new guidance.
In addition, the Pentagon is moving cautiously with a five-phase plan that applies to the 75,000 personnel who work at the Pentagon Reservation, which includes not just the Pentagon building but also the Mark Center, Defense Health Agency headquarters, Raven Rock Mountain Complex, and dozens of leased facilities throughout the National Capital Region.
The plan is designed to dovetail with White House guidelines for “Opening Up America Again.” The five phases are described as:
- Phase Zero (Now)
- Phase One (Restricted)
- Phase Two (Moderate)
- Phase Three (Normal)
- Phase Four (Resilience)
COVID UPDATE: Since the last report on COVID-19 cases in the Defense Department last week, another military member has succumbed to the disease, bringing the number of military deaths to three and to the total deaths to 35.
Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman identified the latest death as an Army Reserve member from Wisconsin but provided no other details except to say he “was not on any set of orders related to COVID.”
As of Tuesday, the Pentagon was reporting 9,173 cases of COVID-19, up 223 from Friday, with 410 people requiring hospitalization at some point and 5,114 having subsequently recovered. The 35 deaths include three military, 18 civilians, five dependents, and nine contractors out of a DOD workforce of roughly 2 million people.
BENEFITS FIGHT: The National Guard Association of the United States is endorsing a bipartisan effort in Congress to force the Trump administration to provide the same benefits for National Guard troops assisting in coronavirus response as their active-duty counterparts.
Legislation sponsored by Rep. Joe Cunningham, a South Carolina Democrat, and Rep. Steven Palazzo, a Mississippi Republican, in the House and Sen. Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, and Sen. Joni Ernst, an Iowa Republican, in the Senate would provide guardsmen with transitional medical coverage after they demobilize from COVID-19 missions.
“Active-component personnel coming off the same front lines have that coverage, and rightly so. All we are asking is that we treat guardsmen the same way,” said Brig. Gen. J. Roy Robinson, the NGAUS president. “It would be unconscionable to send them home to their families without medical coverage.”
RUSSIAN MIG-29s AND SU-24s TO LIBYA: Russia has clandestinely moved fighter planes into a desert airstrip in central Libya to reinforce its private contractor Wagner Group, entering a new phase in its support for Libyan strongman Gen. Khalifa Haftar, reports Abraham Mashie in the Washington Examiner.
“The Russian fighter aircraft arrived in Libya, from an airbase in Russia, after transiting Syria, where it is assessed they were repainted to camouflage their Russian origin,” said the U.S. Africa Command, which released satellite and other imagery of the fighter jets.
“Russia is clearly trying to tip the scales in its favor in Libya. Just like I saw them doing in Syria, they are expanding their military footprint in Africa using government-supported mercenary groups like Wagner,” said U.S. AFRICOM commander Army Gen. Stephen Townsend in a release.
“At least 14 advanced Russian aircraft, a mix of MiG-29 fighters and Su-24s, is definitely of concern,” U.S. Air Force Col. Chris Karns told the Washington Examiner by telephone from AFRICOM headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany. “It’s suspected that Wagner mercenaries will operate the aircraft.”
RUSSIAN HARASSMENT: Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy reports that for the third time in two months, Russian pilots flew in an unsafe and unprofessional manner while intercepting a U.S. Navy P-8A Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Aircraft over the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.
“The intercept was determined to be unsafe and unprofessional due to the Russian pilots taking close station on each wing of the P-8A simultaneously, restricting the P-8A’s ability to safely maneuver,” said the U.S. 6th Fleet, which also released video of the encounter.
“The unnecessary actions of the Russian Su-35 pilots were inconsistent with good airmanship and international flight rules, and jeopardized the safety of flight of both aircraft,” the Navy said. “This incident follows two unsafe interactions in April, over the same waters. In all cases, the U.S. aircraft were operating in international airspace, consistent with international law, with due regard for safety of flight, and did not provoke this Russian activity.”
FINE RESIGNS: An inspector general who was yanked from his role by President Trump just before he was about to begin oversight on coronavirus spending has resigned from the Pentagon, reports Madison Dibble in the Washington Examiner.
Glenn Fine, the principal deputy inspector general of the Department of Defense, stepped down from his position in the Pentagon on Tuesday. In a statement announcing his resignation, Fine said it was time for someone else to take his place.
Fine was selected by a group of inspectors general to oversee the implementation of the $2.2 trillion coronavirus economic relief package known as the CARES Act. Fine would have been the chairman of a new Pandemic Response Accountability Committee, but Trump fired him from his role as acting inspector general just before the committee convened. Because he was no longer an inspector general, he could not serve on the committee.
COOL VIDEO: Boeing has posted a video on its Facebook page of the mission of the mysterious Air Force X-37B unmanned spaceplane. A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket boosted X-37B into orbit for the United States Space Force-7 mission last week.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Trump promises to act on China over Hong Kong this week
Washington Examiner: Trump could slap tariffs on Hong Kong to hit China
Washington Examiner: Senators aim sanctions ‘spear’ at China’s banks
Washington Examiner: Trump promises to act on China over Hong Kong this week
Washington Examiner: Russia secretly sends fighter jets to shore up Libyan strongman, says US Africa Command
AP: Russia Says U.S. Leaving Overflight Treaty Will Hurt Security
Reuters: Afghanistan Begins Freeing 900 Taliban Prisoners, Urges Truce Extension
New York Times: How the Taliban Outlasted a Superpower: Tenacity and Carnage
Defense News: Live nuclear testing could resume in ‘months’ if needed, official says
Politico: Brett Crozier, The Cool-Headed Carrier Captain, Awaits His Fate
USNI News: NAVSEA Says Attack Sub Repairs Much Improved as USS Boise Enters Yard Following 4-Year Wait
Defense One: How the Pandemic Is Helping The Military Prep For World War III
National Interest: The F-35B Guarantees Allied Naval Dominance Over China
Task & Purpose: No, The Marine Corps Is Not Replacing The M27 With The Army’s Next-Generation Squad Weapon After All
Fox News: Wounded Military Working Dog The Most Accomplished In Marine Corps History
Forbes: Army Fears If ‘Future Vertical Lift’ Falters, Serious Fallout For Industry Might Follow
Stars and Stripes: China May Be Preparing For First Dual-Carrier Drills In South China Sea, Reports Say
Washington Examiner: China’s aircraft carriers are playing games with Taiwan, not preparing for war
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | MAY 27
8 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States webinar: “U.S. Strategic Engagement in the Western Balkans, Aegean and Turkey during Coronavirus,” with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Palmer, special representative for the Western Balkans at the State Department; Jonathan Katz, senior fellow at GMFUS Frontlines of Democracy Initiative; Gordana Delic, director of the GMFUS Balkan Trust for Democracy; and Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the GMFUS Ankara Office https://www.gmfus.org/events
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council webcast: “Drone attacks against critical infrastructure in the Middle East.” with former Assistant Defense Secretary for International Security Affairs Mary Beth Long, co-founder and principal at Global Alliance Advisors; and Scott Crino, founder and CEO of Red Six Solutions https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
12 p.m. — Cato Institute webcast: “Chinese-U.S. Relations after the COVID-19 Pandemic,” with Michael Swaine, senior associate in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Asia Program; Bonnie Glaser, senior adviser for Asia and director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies China Power Project; Doug Bandow, senior fellow at the Cato Institute; and Eric Gomez, defense policy studies director at the Cato Institute https://www.cato.org/events
2 p.m. — George Washington Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conference call conversation with Gen. John Murray, commander, Army Futures Command; and Bruce Jette, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics and technology https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
3 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America webinar: “Bolstering the U.S.-Israel Security Relationship,” with Israeli Ambassador to the United States Ron Dermer; and Michael Makovsky, president and CEO of JINSA https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
3 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America conference call briefing: “Re-evaluating U.S. Policy Toward Iraq,” with John Hannah, senior counselor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and JINSA Gemunder Center senior adviser; and Michael Makovsky, president and CEO of JINSA
5 p.m. — National Security Institute “NatSec Nightcap” conversation on the national security implications of pandemics, climate change, and the erosion of faith in public institutions, with former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and NSI Founder and Executive Director Jamil Jaffer. Register: https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/natsec-nightcap-may-27-2020/
THURSDAY | MAY 28
12 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “A Post-Conflict Libya?” with Ahmed Maitig, deputy prime minister of the Libyan Government of National Accord; former Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon, South Africa and Yemen Mohamed Zayed; Mehmet Ogutcu, former Turkish diplomat and chairman of Global Resources Partnership; and Karim Mezran, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/#allevents
12:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “The United States and the European Union — Allies or Rivals?” with former U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Anthony Luzzatto Gardner; former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns; and Frances Burwell, fellow at the Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
2:00 p.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual roundtable examining the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for the future competitive balance between the United States and China, with Tim Junio, CEO and co-founder, Expanse; Heino Klinck, deputy assistant secretary of defense; Vance Serchuk, executive director, KKR Global Institute; retired Adm. Sandy Winnefeld, former vice chairman of the joint chiefs of staff; and moderated by Thomas Mahnken, president and CEO of CSBA https://zoom.us/webinar/register
FRIDAY | MAY 29
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Artificial Intelligence (AI), Defense, and Intelligence.” with Air Force Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan, director of the Defense Department’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I cannot envision any agreement that does not allow for a residual counter-terrorism force combined with a robust intelligence gathering capability sufficient to protect our vital national security interests in the region as well as protecting the American homeland.”
South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, urging the Pentagon and State Department not to endorse any option to withdraw all U.S. troops from Afghanistan this year.
