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BORDER WARS: The House Armed Services Committee this morning holds its first formal oversight hearing of the 116th Congress. Its new chairman, Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., summoned two Pentagon officials to appear before the panel. They’ll be grilled on President Trump’s decision to deploy active-duty troops to provide construction and logistical support to civilian authorities to bolster border security. “We want an explanation of the policy. We want to shine a light on it and make it clear in my view that there is no legitimate purpose here,” Smith said in an NPR interview. “And if there’s no legitimate purpose, then why are you wasting the amount of money that you’re wasting to put them down there?” The Pentagon has offered up John Rood, undersecretary of defense for policy, and Vice Adm. Michael Gilday, joint staff operations director, to take what promised to be a tongue-lashing from Smith. The new chairman has accused Trump of “manufacturing a crisis to pander to his base.” “You heard his language. You know, ‘We have an invasion, you know, coming at us,’ which was utter and complete nonsense,” Smith told NPR. “Well, the military didn’t stop anything. Most of those people who went down to the border were sitting around playing cards because they didn’t have anything to do because there was no invasion,” he said. “The active-duty troops, I think they, like, put up some barbed wire and maybe built a temporary structure or two, and you can’t tell me that was a good use of their time.” There are still some 2,300 active duty troops on the border, along with another 2,200 or so National Guard forces under state control. BARRIER WARS: The troop deployment debate centers on the same issue as the impasse over funding a border wall. Or, as President Trump has more recently described it, steel barriers to secure weak spots and gaps in the near 700 miles of current border fencing. Trump says it’s a crisis that demands immediate action. Democrats argue the real crisis is the number of asylum-seekers who present themselves at the border, and under current law must be granted a hearing on their claims. “To the extent we have these caravans that are coming they’re turning themselves in. OK?” said Smith. “You don’t need a wall. You know you don’t need anything to stop them. We need stuff to process them. The only thing that has really changed is we could use some more money for judges to process asylum-seekers.” Trump is threatening to declare a “national emergency,” and redirect funds from the Pentagon and other agencies to begin construction of more barriers, if a bipartisan compromise suitable to him isn’t forthcoming from Congress by Feb. 15. He’s also threatening another painful partial shutdown. $3 BILLION COST OF SHUTDOWN: Meanwhile the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office is out with an estimate that the partial government shutdown delayed $18 billion in federal spending, suspended some federal services, and cost $11 billion losses to the economy, — but not all the money will be made up “Although most of the real GDP lost during the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 will eventually be recovered, CBO estimates that about $3 billion will not be,” the assessment said. The CBO notes its projections and their timing “are subject to considerable uncertainty,” and that the effects on individual businesses and workers are much more significant than on the overall economy. “Among those who experienced the largest and most direct negative effects are federal workers who faced delayed compensation and private-sector entities that lost business. Some of those private-sector entities will never recoup that lost income.” DISMISSING THE CBO: At yesterday’s White House briefing, Trump’s Economic Director Larry Kudlow insisted the shutdown would cause no permanent damage to the economy. “We frequently disagree with CBO, with all respect. They’re doing the best job they can, I get that,” Kudlow told reporters when asked about CBO report. “I won’t acknowledge any of that right now. And in a $20 trillion economy, it’s awfully hard to make even the best guesstimates of those kinds of small fractions of numbers,” Kudlow said. “I think you have just a whole bunch of very temporary factors. And now that the government is reopened, the switch goes right back on. There’s certainly no — no permanent damage to the economy.” PRESSURE’S ON: A bipartisan group of House and Senate negotiators will meet tomorrow to begin trying to find an acceptable border security compromise ahead of the Feb. 15 deadline. The group of 17 House and Senate negotiators is tasked with coming up with an agreement on Homeland Security spending for fiscal 2019. The big question is how far Democrats will go to provide some funding to appease President Trump, who has threatened to withhold his signature on spending legislation when the current authorization expires on Feb. 15. Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Mark (@DavidMarkDC). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY, SHANAHAN BRIEFS: While Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan took some questions from the media yesterday before his meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, today he will conduct his first formal briefing with Pentagon reporters, since taking for the retired, then-fired, Jim Mattis. The q-and-a session is set for 9:30 this morning in the Pentagon briefing room, but in keeping with the precedent set by Mattis, cameras will be barred from the briefing, although the session will be on the record. TROOPS TO COLOMBIA? Shanahan will no doubt be asked again about the prospect of some sort of U.S. military action or dispatch of troops in a show of force to pressure Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to step down. Shanahan dodged the question yesterday while welcoming Stoltenberg to the Pentagon. “The president said all military options are on the table for Venezuela,” a pool reporter asked. “What does that mean for planning here at the Department of Defense?” “In the Department of Defense here, we’re very closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela,” was all Shanahan would say. The question assumed new urgency after what seemed to be a deliberate bit of political theater at yesterday’s White House briefing on new U.S. sanctions against Venezuela’s state-owned oil industry. National security advisor John Bolton, clutching a mostly blank yellow legal pad, declared “Look, the president has made it very clear on this — on this matter, that all options are on the table.” On the pad could clearly be seen a handwritten reference to “5,000 troops to Colombia,” and Bolton deliberately held it up above the lectern where it could be seen by TV cameras. SHANAHAN OPTIMISTIC ON TALIBAN TALKS: Yesterday Shanahan called the ongoing negotiations between the United States and the Taliban “encouraging” and said they might pave the way for more serious planning for a gradual draw-down of U.S. troops in Afghanistan. “We might get a chance to talk about that this week,” Shanahan said when questioned whether there was planning underway to reduce the U.S. troop commitment to the NATO-led Operation Resolute Support. Shanahan said he has not yet been tasked to draw up plans for the U.S. withdrawal, but that he had been briefed on the outlines of the potential peace accord. “Really, the takeaway right now is it’s encouraging,” Shanahan said, “and we’ll let Secretary [of State Mike] Pompeo and the ambassador [Zalmay Khalilzad] be the spokespersons for that.” ALSO TODAY, WORLDWIDE THREATS: The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence has an all-star lineup for this morning hearing on worldwide threats. Witnesses include FBI Director Christopher Wray, CIA Director Gina Haspel, DNI Director Dan Coats, DIA Director Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, and NSA Director Gen. Paul Nakasone. DUELING THINK TANKS: The good folks at 38 North, funded by the Stimson Center, are picking a fight with the good folks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. At issue is a recent report from CSIS, “Undeclared North Korea: The Sino-ri Missile Operating Base and Strategic Force Facilities,” which says missile base has never been declared by North Korea and does not appear to be the subject of denuclearization negotiations. In a counter analysis, 38 North calls the reports of secret North Korean missile bases, “much ado about not much,” and dismissed the CSIS analysis as “a descriptive compilation of satellite imagery that nonetheless reaffirms what we already know: North Korea possesses an extensive network of missile bases, many of which have been maintained and operated for decades.” “Like previous CSIS studies on this facility, the report creates a misleading narrative about North Korean motives, intentions and actions at a time when the brittle US-DPRK diplomatic process is struggling to gain altitude,” writes Daniel Depetris. “Even more disturbing than the report’s central thesis of North Korean deceit and deception is the media narrative surrounding its release. With on-air reporters speculating about Pyongyang’s deception, the American people are being led to the premature — perhaps even unwarranted — conclusion that Kim Jong Un is up to his old tricks and that diplomacy with North Korea is at best a waste of time and at worst a trap he is laying to take the president to the cleaners.” RAND REPORT ON RUSSIA: Rand is out with a new report examining current Russian hostile measures in Europe and predicting how Russia might threaten Europe over the next few years. The report assesses the range and limits of Russian tools of influence, European countries’ abilities to resist or respond, and, ultimately, these states’ vulnerabilities to hostile measures. “Russia has the most strategic interest in influencing the larger, wealthier, more powerful countries of western Europe, but it has the most leverage over smaller, less wealthy countries of eastern Europe, particularly those countries outside of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization alliance,” says a summary of the findings. “This report concludes with a range of recommendations for the U.S. government and for the U.S. Army on how to counter hostile measures.” MCCHRYSTAL — LET THEM SERVE: Retired Gen. Stanley McChrystal, former U.S. Afghanistan commander says it’s a “mistake” to waste talent by banning capable transgender Americans from military service. Speaking to CNN’s David Axelrod on his “The Axe Files” podcast, McChrystal said, “If we have people who want to serve, if they have the desire, the capacity to serve, I think it’s a mistake to lose that talent. I also think it’s a mistake to send any message that says that somebody with those attributes, the willingness and the capability to serve, not being welcome, is a negative message to send.” Advocates for transgender troops immediately seized on the comments. “Gen. Stanley McChrystal has lent his distinguished voice to the military chorus stating that we cannot afford to undercut our readiness by denying patriotic Americans the freedom to serve simply because of who they are. There is simply no rationale whatsoever for a transgender ban and asserting otherwise is nothing but politics and prejudice masquerading as military necessity,” said Aaron Belkin, Director of the Palm Center. IN MEMORIAM: Retired Lt. Col. Charles Kettles, who was awarded the Medal of Honor in 2016 for his valor under fire as a helicopter pilot in Vietnam died last Monday at age 89. “It is with a heavy heart we say that we have lost another amazing American hero. Medal of Honor Recipient Charles Kettles passed away on Monday, January 21, 2019,” the Congressional Medal of Honor Foundation posted on Facebook a day after he died. “We cannot fully know what went through the mind of Major Charles Kettles that day,” said Secretary of Defense Ash Carter in 2016. “But we know what motivated him. We see it in the names on the walls of this very room, we can feel what has always motivated the men and women of our military: Duty. Honor. Country. And the deeply held conviction that we will never, ever, leave a soldier, sailor, airman, or Marine behind.” You can hear the dramatic story of Kettle’s live-saving bravery, in his own words, here. THE RUNDOWN Breaking Defense: The Navy Has Had Enough of Missile Defense; And Sees Its Chance CNN.com: Inside the Pentagon’s race against deepfake videos Bloomberg: Marine Corps’ CH-53K King Stallion Sucking up More Money & Time The National Interest: Why America Needs a Presence on the Moon Army Times: New Army leave policy more flexible after childbirth, gives three weeks off to fathers Defense News: Video: The growing threat of the Pentagon- Silicon Valley culture gap Navy Times: Sailor charged with trying to set fire to his urine sample The Associated Press: US Strategic Command’s new $1.3B facility opening soon at Offutt Air Force Base The Associated Press: Iraqi militia leader wants US troops to leave Foreign Policy: Ryan Crocker: The Taliban Will ‘Retake the Country’ Seapower Magazine: Navy Awards Boeing $2.4 Billion P-8A Poseidon Contract Al Monitor: Mattis departure risks US policy void as Yemen pact falls apart |
CalendarTUESDAY | JANUARY 29 8 a.m. 2201 G Street N.W. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Lt. Gen. Charles D. Luckey. 9:30 a.m. Hart 216. Worldwide Threats open hearing. www.intelligence.senate.gov 10 a.m. SD-342, Dirksen. Senate Homeland Security & Government Affairs business meeting. www.hsgac.senate.gov 10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. “Department of Defense’s Support to the Southern Border.” www.armedservices.house.gov 10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. “A discussion on the 2019 Missile Defense Review.” www.brookings.edu 12:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Suite 400. “Revitalizing Nuclear Security in an Era of Uncertainty.” www.hudson.org 2:30 p.m. Room SR-222, Russell Senate Office Building. “Department of Defense Enterprise-wide Cybersecurity Policies and Architecture” www.armed-services.senate.gov WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 30 8:30 a.m. National Press Club. “State of Space 2019.” https://www.press.org/events 9:30 a.m. 1152 15th Street, N.W., Suite 950. “A Realistic Path for Progress on Iran.” www.cnas.org 10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. “Geopolitical Implications of a New Era on the Korean Peninsula.” www.wilsoncenter.org THURSDAY | JANUARY 31 9 a.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. “The Belarus Dilemma: For Minsk and the West.” www.atlanticcouncil.org TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 5 10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W. “Book Launch: On the Brink: Trump, Kim, and the Threat of Nuclear War.” www.wilsoncenter.org 10 a.m. 30th Annual SO/LIC Symposium & Exhibition. Hyatt Regency Crystal City at Reagan National Airport. http://www.ndia.org 12 p.m. 1800 M Street N.W., Suite 800. By invitation only — “Preparing for a cyber-enabled economic warfare attack.” www.fdd.org WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 6 7 a.m. 30th Annual SO/LIC Symposium & Exhibition. Hyatt Regency Crystal City at Reagan National Airport. http://www.ndia.org 9 a.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. “Maintaining Maritime Superiority: Discussion With the Chief of Naval Operations.” www.atlanticcouncil.org 10 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Avenue N.W. “A conversation with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) on the Senate’s role in foreign policy.” www.aei.org THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 7 8 a.m. 30th Annual SO/LIC Symposium & Exhibition. Hyatt Regency Crystal City at Reagan National Airport. http://www.ndia.org 11:30 a.m. 1667 K Street, NW. “Regaining the High Ground at Sea: Transforming the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Air Wing for Great Power Competition” https://csbaonline.org |
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