Macron, Merkel to press Trump to stay in Iran deal as Tehran threatens to go nuclear

MACRON ARRIVES: President Trump welcomes French President Emmanuel Macron to the White House for a three-day state visit that begins with an official greeting at the Executive Mansion at 5 p.m. The Trumps and the Macrons will then dine at the historic Virginia home of America’s first president, a general whose forces prevailed on the battlefield in no small part because of the help of the French. The dinner at Mount Vernon comes just over a week after French forces joined the U.S. and Britain in striking Syria over its use of chemical weapons, and four days before South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in is set to meet with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to discuss his arsenal of nuclear weapons.

THE TRUMP WHISPERER: Macron says he feels a kinship with Trump because they are both outsiders. “I think we have this very special relationship because both of us are probably maverick of the systems on both sides,” Macron said on Fox News Sunday. “I think President Trump’s election was unexpected in your country and probably my election wasn’t expected in my country. We are not part of the classical political system.”

ON SYRIA: Macron said in a television interview last week in France that he believed he had convinced Trump to stay in Syria for the long haul, which prompted the White House to push back and insist the president wants to bring U.S. home as soon as Islamic State fighters are defeated. “Mr. President, which is it?” Chris Wallace asked Macron on Fox.

“It’s not automatically U.S. forces, but that’s U.S. diplomacy and that’s your president,” Macron explained. “I will be very blunt. The day we will finish this war against ISIS, if we leave, definitely and totally, even from a political point of view, we will leave the floor to the Iranian regime, Bashar al-Assad and his guys, and they will prepare the new war. They will fuel the new terrorists.”

ON IRAN: Macron — and later this week German Chancellor Angela Merkel — will both be pressing Trump to stick with the Iran nuclear deal for now, arguing it’s better than nothing and withdrawing now will send the wrong message to North Korea. The president has set May 12 as the deadline to see if the U.S. can secure a supplemental agreement to tighten the provisions, a senior administration official told reporters yesterday.

On Fox, Macron said he will tell Trump that while the deal is not perfect, it should be kept in place. “What do you have as a better option? I don’t see it. What is the what-if scenario or your plan B? I don’t have any plan B for nuclear against Iran. So, that’s the question we will discuss.”

IRAN READY TO GO NUCLEAR: Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on CBS that if the U.S. pulls out of the agreement Iran is ready to exercise its options, which includes “resuming at much greater speed our nuclear activities.” Zarif insisted that did not mean Iran would produce nuclear weapons, something it has said was never its goal, even after the agreement would expire. “You don’t need even to read the entire 150 pages of the deal. Just read the first three lines, and it’s there. There is no sunset to the fact that Iran will never seek nuclear weapons.”

But Zarif insisted the biggest impact of U.S. withdrawal from the agreement is it would send a message to the world that America is an unreliable negotiating partner. “If the United States sends the message to the national community that the length or duration of any agreement would depend on duration of the presidency, that would mean people will at least think twice before they start negotiating with the United States, because negotiations involve give and take. And people will not be prepared to give if the take is only temporary.”

NORTH KOREA STRATEGY: Trump is defending his negotiating strategy from criticism that he’s already given Kim a tremendous propaganda victory with nothing but empty promises in return. “Funny how all of the Pundits that couldn’t come close to making a deal on North Korea are now all over the place telling me how to make a deal!,” Trump tweeted. “We are a long way from conclusion on North Korea, maybe things will work out, and maybe they won’t – only time will tell….But the work I am doing now should have been done a long time ago! “

After NBC’s “Meet the Press” aired, Trump tweeted, “Sleepy Eyes Chuck Todd of Fake News NBC just stated that we have given up so much in our negotiations with North Korea, and they have given up nothing. Wow, we haven’t given up anything & they have agreed to denuclearization (so great for World), site closure, & no more testing!” For the record, Todd was actually reading something that former White House spokesman Ari Fleischer wrote, and North Korea has agreed to discuss denuclearization and for now says it won’t conduct any more tests.

On CBS, Sen. Tom Cotton said North Korea’s announcement it would halt nuclear and missile tests is “an easily reversible decision” but “better than” continuing with testing, but “not much better than that.”  But Cotton says Trump has put Kim on his back foot. “The fact that Kim requested this summit, the president accepted, I think to his surprise and moved so quickly, said he’s not going to ask for U.S. troops to be removed and now has made this announcement shows that he realizes that time and momentum is on the side of the United States and our allies.”

On CNN, Sen. Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, dismissed Kim’s charm offensive as PR. “This is a great public relations effort by Kim Jong Un. And I think people recognize that. I think everyone within the administration and Congress approaches this with skepticism and caution.”

The Wall Street Journal says Trump will insist that North Korea denuclearize first before any sanctions relief is given, so as not to repeat past mistakes. “That means the U.S. will not be making substantial concessions, such as lifting sanctions, until North Korea has substantially dismantled its nuclear programs,” a senior Trump administration official is quoted as saying. “If North Korea is willing to move quickly to denuclearize, then the sky is the limit. All sorts of good things can happen,” the official added.

During his confirmation hearing to be secretary of state this month, CIA Director Mike Pompeo said much the same thing regarding the failure of previous efforts including the 1994 framework agreement. “In each case America and the world really — [lifted] their sanctions too quickly. That is we didn’t have the verifiable irreversible deal that we hoped that we had. And in each case, the North Koreans walked away from that deal. It is the intention of the president and the administration to not do that this time.”

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Pompeo’s nomination comes up for a vote in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee today, and if Sen. Rand Paul holds true to his vow, Pompeo will become the first secretary of state nominee to have his nomination go to the floor for a full Senate vote without committee approval.

Pompeo has picked up one Democratic vote from Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, but may need one more given that Sen. John McCain still has not returned to the Senate.

CONCERNS OVER VA NOMINEE: White House officials and key senators are worried Rear Adm. Ronny Jackson, Trump’s nominee to replace David Shulkin as Veterans Affairs secretary, won’t be confirmed by the Senate, according to Axios.

MATTIS AND DUNFORD BACK ON THE HILL: The last time Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testified on Capitol Hill was just a day before the U.S. strike on Syria. Now they will be returning to testify together on the 2019 defense budget, first before the House Appropriations Committee on Wednesday and then before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday. Congress is in the thick of its budget process and both hearings are likely to be wide-ranging and well-attended.

HASC MARKUPS: The House Armed Services Committee is set to have its marathon, late-night markup of the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act on May 9. But first, six of its subcommittees must draft and vote on their pieces of the massive bill. That happens on Thursday with hearings each hour through the afternoon. The subcommittee markup hearings are usually a formality with little debate. But the legislation will lay the foundation of the defense bill and tee up final National Defense Authorization Act language for the full committee to amend.

UNION OPPOSES THORNBERRY: A federal union representing 270,000 Defense Department workers is urging Rep. Mac Thornberry to scrap his plan for deep cuts in military support agencies. “We respectfully suggest that the committee pull back the draft [bill] because of the misconceptions about defense agencies,” wrote J. David Cox, who is the national president of the American Federation of Government Employees. He wrote a letter to Thornberry saying the House Armed Services chairman should pull his bill proposing about $25 billion in across-the-board cuts to 28 DoD agencies and instead opt for reviews every five years without arbitrary goals for reducing spending.

RETENTION UP, RECRUITING TOUGH: Army Secretary Mark Esper told reporters at the Pentagon Friday that while the Army is lowering its recruiting goals for the year, it’s partially a good news story. Fewer new recruits will be needed, he said, because more soldiers are choosing the stay in the Army. So instead of 80,000 new active-duty soldiers, the Army says it will need only 76,500. So far this year, the service has brought in just 28,000 new soldiers, but this is prime recruiting season, when students graduate from high school and begin to think hard about their future.

PILOT SHORTAGES: It’s not just the military that’s facing a pilot shortage. The Washington Post reports that airlines are facing shortages because more pilots are staying in the services as a result of retention measures. Boeing’s Pilot Outlook for 2017-2036 forecasts that over the next 20 years, North America will require 117,000 new pilots.

EVERYBODY MAKES MISTAKES: Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson said Friday that the public should go easy on the military for misreporting some of the aircraft and munitions used in the Syria strike. “First of all, I’m glad that they corrected the record as opposed to letting it stand. I watched the press conference as well and I think maybe we should cut people a little bit of slack, you know,” Wilson said, referring to a Saturday morning post-strike Pentagon briefing by chief spokeswoman Dana White and Lt. Gen. Frank McKenzie.

The Pentagon and the Air Force had to walk back claims that an extended-range version of Lockheed Martin’s Joint-Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile was used and that the service’s F-22 Raptor fighter jet did not participate. Both turned out to not be true. Instead, a standard version of the JASSM — not the extended-range one — was launched and the F-22 escorted the bombers, but didn’t release any weapons. “They are trying to get information out about an operation that happened the night before on a Saturday morning and taking questions from a hundred different directions about operational details, and I think they did a pretty good job,” Wilson said.

THE RUNDOWN

Defense One: Thornberry’s Pentagon-Reform Plan to Nowhere

AP: SKorea halts propaganda broadcasts before summit with North

AFP: Suicide attack on Kabul voter registration centre kills 57

Fox News: Lawmakers calling North Korea’s announcement of denuclearization publicity stunt

Daily Beast: How Trump’s Trans Military Ban Backfired. Spectacularly.

Business Insider: Confusion erupts after a ‘small, drone-type’ object was apparently shot down near the king’s palace in Saudi Arabia

Defense News: US weighs keeping carrier strike group in Europe as a check on Russia

Foreign Policy: Human Rights Groups Bristling at State Department Report

Task and Purpose: John Chapman Died Alone On A Mountaintop Fighting Al Qaeda. Now He’s Getting The Medal Of Honor

New York Times: China, Feeling Left Out, Has Plenty to Worry About in North Korea-U.S. Talks

Reuters: Rockets shake Mali’s Timbuktu, no casualties: French army

War on the Rocks: Turkey’s Snap Elections: Erdogan’s Improvised Gambit

Calendar

MONDAY | APRIL 23

11 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. Washington’s Shifting Syria Policy: Implications for U.S.-Turkey Relations. press.org

11:30 a.m. 1620 L St. NW. Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security Discussion on the National Security Implications of 2017 Events with Retired Gen. Michael Hayden, Former Director of CIA and NSA.

12:15 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. ISIS in North Africa: Past and Future Trajectories. Newamerica.org

1:30 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis welcomes Thailand Defense Minister Prawit Wongsuwon to the Pentagon.

6 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on U.S.-Iran Relations. cfr.org

TUESDAY | APRIL 24

7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. AUSA Hot Topic Series: Army Contracts with Bruce Jette, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology. ausa.org

8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Deputy Secretary of Defense Pat Shanahan.

8 a.m. 300 First St. SE. Strategic Deterrence Breakfast Series: The Nuclear and Missile Defense Dimension. mitchellaerospacepower.org

9 a.m. Cryptocurrencies and Sanctions Breakfast (invitation only). defenddemocracy.org

9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Hearing on the Posture of the Department of the Air Force with Secretary Heather Wilson and Gen. David Goldfein, Chief Of Staff. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. Dirksen 342. Hearing on Mitigating America’s Cybersecurity Risk. hsgac.senate.gov

10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Nominations Hearing with Adm. Harry Harris, to be the Ambassador to Australia. foreign.senate.gov

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Putin’s New Strategic Systems: Plans, Realities, and Prospects. csis.org

12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. NATO’s Cyber Defense Strategy Ahead of the 2018 Brussels Summit. hudson.org

12 noon. Hart 216. Responding to Russia. defensepriorities.org

3:30 p.m. 1030 15th Street NW. Developing a Strategy to Deter Russian Nuclear ‘De-escalation’ Strikes. atlanticcouncil.org

5:30 p.m. 1177 15th St. NW. Book Launch Event: “Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War” by Paul Scharre. cnas.org

5:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Schieffer Series: China and North Korea – What’s Next? csis.org

5:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Battle for the New Libya. carnegieendowment.org

WEDNESDAY | APRIL 25

8 a.m. 300 First St. SE. Strategic Deterrence Breakfast Series on China: Emerging Peer Danger. mitchellaerospacepower.org

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Global Fragmentation in Cyber Policy. csis.org

11:30 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. Human-Machine Teaming for Future Ground Forces. csbaonline.org

12 noon. 1030 15th St. NW. Iraq’s Upcoming Elections: Likely Outcomes and Impact on US-Iraqi Relations. atlanticcouncil.org

1 p.m. House 140. Hearing on the Fiscal Year 2019 Department of Defense Posture and Budget with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis; Gen. Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and DOD Comptroller David Norquist. appropriations.house.gov

1:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. New Year, New Strategy: Shifting Policies on North Korea in 2018. wilsoncenter.org

2:30 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. Afghanistan in 2020: Is Peace Possible? usip.org

THURSDAY | APRIL 26

9 a.m. Rayburn 2212. House Armed Services Markup of H.R. 5515 – National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019 – Subcommittee on Readiness.

9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. 21st Century Security Forum: The National Defense Strategy and its global impact with Gen. Robert Neller, Commandant of the Marine Corps. brookings.edu

9:30 a.m. Hart 216. Hearing on the Department of Defense Budget Posture with Secretary Jim Mattis; Gen. Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and DOD Comptroller David Norquist. armed-services.senate.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Markup of H.R. 5515 – National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019 – Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities.

11 a.m. Rayburn 2212. House Armed Services Markup of H.R. 5515 – National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019 – Subcommittee on Military Personnel.

12 noon. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Risky Business: The Role of Arms Sales in U.S. Foreign Policy. cato.org

12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Iran’s Entrenched Footprint in Iraq and Syria. hudson.org

12:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Markup of H.R. 5515 – National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019 – Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces.

1:30 p.m. Rayburn 2212. House Armed Services Markup of H.R. 5515 – National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019 – Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces.

3 p.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services Markup of H.R. 5515 – National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019 – Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.

3:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Iran: As Anti-Government Protests Continue, Can the U.S. Help Maintain Momentum? hudson.org

5 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Investing in Iraq: Reconstruction and the Role of the Energy Sector with Fareed Yasseen, Iraqi Ambassador to the United States. atlanticcouncil.org

FRIDAY | APRIL 27

8 a.m. 300 First Street SE. The Nuclear Deterrent Breakfast Series: Connecting Arms Control to Strategic Deterrent Requirements. mitchellaerospacepower.org

10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Maritime Security in the Polar Regions: Legal Perspectives from the United States and China. wilsoncenter.org

MONDAY | APRIL 30

11:30 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. Book Talk on “Silent Invasion” by Clive Hamilton. csbaonline.org

1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book Talk on “Losing Hearts and Minds: American-Iranian Relations and International Education during the Cold War” with author Matthew Shannon. csis.org

2 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. An Assessment of the Inter-Korea Summit: Views from South Korea, U.S. and China. stimson.org

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
“If North Korea is willing to move quickly to denuclearize, then the sky is the limit. All sorts of good things can happen.”
An unnamed senior administration official quoted in the Wall Street Journal.

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