WHAT NEXT WITH N. KOREA? As U.S. Special Representative Stephen Biegun returns to Washington empty-handed after stops in Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing, there is growing bipartisan concern that the U.S. is headed for another confrontation with North Korea over its refusal to take substantial steps to dismantling its nuclear arsenals, as Kim Jong Un promised last year.
That concern was on display yesterday at a Capitol Hill news conference called to tout new tougher sanctions against North Korea banking contained in the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act, just passed by the Senate, and which could be signed by President Trump as soon as today.
Republican Senators Pat Toomey and Rob Portman, and Democrats Chris Van Hollen and Sherrod Brown said it’s time to turn up the heat on Pyongyang. “It seems to me the best chance we have in changing the path North Korea is on is with crippling sanctions. The current sanctions regime is not enough,” said Toomey.
‘ON THE BRINK OF FAILURE’: Eight Democratic senators also fired off a letter to Trump yesterday expressing “grave and growing concern” that his efforts to achieve complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula “appear to be stalled and on the brink of failure.”
The senators, led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Armed Services Committee ranking member Jack Reed, says North Korea appears to be moving full speed ahead with its long range-missile programs while the Trump administration diplomacy flounders.
“Over the past six months North Korea has conducted at least 15 ballistic missile tests, including what open source imagery suggests was an ICBM static engine test at its Sohae facility on December 7, and another similar test on December 14,” the letter reads. “We are disturbed that almost two years after the Singapore Summit your administration has yet to develop a workable diplomatic process to structure real, serious and sustainable negotiations with North Korea.”
The Democrats suggest going for a small deal as a first step in a longer process. “We reiterate our hope that you will execute a serious diplomatic plan before it is too late, which includes a sequenced process to verifiably freeze and roll back North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile programs in conjunction with continued appropriate sanctions and other pressure; a robust deterrence posture; strengthened alliances; intensified diplomatic engagement; and a deepening of the North-South dialogue that can provide a pathway to full denuclearization and a durable peace agreement.”
CHRISTMAS SURPRISE: About that unwelcome “Christmas gift” that North Korea promised if the U.S. doesn’t make new proposals soon that include sanctions relief, the betting is it will come in the form of an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Gen. Charles Brown commander of Pacific Air Forces and air component commander for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told the Hill on Tuesday that the “gift” could be a resumption of long-range missile tests.
“What I would expect is some type of long-range ballistic missile would be the gift. It’s just a matter of does it come on Christmas Eve, does it come on Christmas Day, does it come after the New Year,” Brown said. He later noted that the threat could relate to other possibilities.
“I think there’s a range of things that could occur,” he told reporters at a roundtable breakfast. “I think there’s also the possibility that the self-imposed moratorium [on long-range tests] may go away and nothing happens right away. [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un] announces it but then doesn’t shoot.”
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers a speech on “Human Rights and the Iranian Regime” at 10:30 a.m at the State Department, followed by a panel discussion with survivors of the Iranian regime’s human rights abuses. Also taking part are Robert Destro, assistant secretary for democracy, human rights, and labor; Brian Hook, special representative for Iran; and Sam Brownback, ambassador at large for international religious freedom.
NOTHING TO ANNOUNCE: While Defense Secretary Mark Esper has said repeatedly in recent weeks that he is eyeing a reduction in troop levels in Afghanistan, yesterday he indicated the eventual drawdown is not imminent.
“I have no announcements to make with regard to Afghanistan,” Esper said at a joint news conference with Pompeo at the State Department. “If and when a decision is made, we’ll be sure to inform the media at the appropriate time and place.”
Pompeo said the U.S. has not given up on the peace talks that U.S. special representative Zalmay Khalilzad is trying to restart after Trump declared them dead in September.
“We are hopeful that all of the relevant political participants in Afghanistan, the Afghan Government, non-Afghan Government leaders inside of Afghanistan, the Taliban, we’re hopeful they will all conclude that the right answer is a significant reduction in violence leading to a ceasefire and a set of negotiations amongst and between the Afghan peoples and their leaders such that the United States can reduce its footprint while continuing to ensure that the threat of terrorism emanating from Afghanistan to the homeland here in the United States has a greatly reduced risk,” Pompeo said.
Esper and Pompeo were meeting with their Indian counterparts in what’s known as a 2 plus 2 ministerial.
TRUMP’S SUPPORT SLIPS WITH TROOPS: A new poll by Military Times and Syracuse University finds that 50% of active-duty military personnel have an unfavorable view of President Trump, continuing a trend that shows his approval rating among the military declining since he was elected in 2016.
But Trump’s 41.6% approval rating, while his lowest to date, is still higher than President Barack Obama’s 36.4% rating when he left office in January 2017.
Here are the results when respondents were asked “How favorable or unfavorable is your view of President Reagan.”
- Very favorable: 24.3%
- Favorable: 17.3%
- Neutral: 8.5%
- Unfavorable: 4.8%
- Very unfavorable: 45.1%
The poll surveyed 1,630 active duty troops between Oct. 23 and Dec. 2 this year.
‘AN INSULT TO LANDFILLS’: National Security reporter Tara Copp and her team at McClatchy newspapers are continuing to investigate the relationship between cancer rates suffered by U.S. military veterans and their exposure to potentially toxic substances in the field.
The latest installment examines the plight of special operations forces and other troops who deployed to a former Soviet base in Uzbekistan shortly after 9/11 and now have cancer. At least 61 of the men and women who served at the logistics hub have since been diagnosed with cancer or died from the disease, according to a 2015 Army study on the base.
The base, Karshi-Khanabad, known as K2, was contaminated with chemical weapons remnants, radioactive processed uranium and other hazards, according to documents obtained by McClatchy.
Troops “found pond water that glowed green, black goo oozing from the ground and signs warning ‘radiation hazard.’ ” according to the report. “To call this site a landfill is an insult to landfills,” said one document obtained by McClatchy.
CORRECTION: Yesterday’s item about a Marine Corps announcement that ongoing engine integration issues” with the Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallion has been fixed, including a link to Bloomberg report about ongoing problems with the program, that had been provided by a Bloomberg reporter. Due to computer glitch, Bloomberg mistakenly sent a year-old story. The correct Bloomberg story, “Flaw With Lockheed’s $31 Billion Marine Copter Solved, U.S. Says,” can be found here. We regret the error.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ron Johnson poised to break with Senate GOP on defense ‘minibus’ spending bill
Defense News: Top Defense Exports Official Exits The Pentagon Amid Multiple Recent Resignations
Bloomberg: Pentagon Eyes Buying Fewer Lockheed Copters And More From Boeing
The Diplomat: Australia Takes Delivery of 7 More F-35A Stealth Fighters
Washington Examiner: Paroled after eight years in prison, a former soldier aims to reform the military justice system
USNI News: Foggo: Navy Needs Unmanned ISR, Tankers to Counter Russia
AP: Russia’s Top Military Officer Airs Concern About NATO Drills
Stars and Stripes: Turkey Breaches Airspace Of Greece 40 Times In A Day, Triggering Mock Dogfights Between The NATO Allies
Defense.gov: Top U.S., Russian Military Leaders Meet to Improve Mutual Communication
Popular Mechanics: This One Tweet Shows the Fast-Paced Rise of China’s Navy
Washington Post: Former Afghan leader Hamid Karzai grew estranged from his American allies during 10 years in power. Here’s what he says about The Afghanistan Papers.
Reuters: U.N. Condemns North Korea Rights Abuses, Pyongyang Rejects Resolution
McClatchy: Cancers strike veterans who deployed to Uzbek base where black goo oozed, ponds glowed
Calendar
THURSDAY | DECEMBER 19
10:30 a.m. 2201 C St. N.W. — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers remarks on “human rights in Iran,” followed immediately by a panel discussion with survivors of the Iranian regime’s human rights abuses. https://www.state.gov
2 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion on “The future of Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream: The impact of sanctions legislation,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst; former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Richard Morningstar; and Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“To call this site a landfill is an insult to landfills.”
Quote from document obtained by McClatchy in an investigation of pools of toxic waste at a former Soviet base in Uzbekistan, where U.S. troops served and are now diagnosed with or dying from cancer.
