CLEANUP ON THE E-RING: About six hours after President Trump went on another rant about how Germany is taking advantage of the United States, Defense Secretary Mark Esper presented a robust defense of Trump’s punitive order to withdraw almost 12,000 U.S. troops from the stalwart U.S. ally.
Esper, speaking from the Pentagon to the virtual Aspen Security Forum, said he and Gen. Tod Wolters, head of the U.S. European Command based in Stuttgart, used the president’s June directive as a way to accelerate plans already under consideration to reposition U.S. forces to meet the challenge of Russia more directly.
“I think nobody can deny the fact that … aligning his headquarters, co-locating it with his SHAPE headquarters in Belgium, is an efficiency that will allow greater interoperability between our staffs, reuniting units that have been separated for years,” Esper said. “For example, moving the elements of the 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team from Germany down to Italy with their host units makes obvious sense. Same thing with combining other headquarters as well.”
‘STRATEGIC FLEXIBILITY’: Esper argues that by bringing 6,000 of the 12,000 troops back to the U.S., he can redeploy them to parts of Europe where they are most needed and will be the most effective in deterring Russia. “What that does is it gives me great strategic flexibility,” he said. “So whereas in the past, we may have had forward deployed at any one time, training one battalion, in the future, we’ll have an enduring presence of a brigade. … So I think when you go through it, you’ll see it makes — these moves make a lot of sense.”
“We see putting more rotational forces into the Black Sea region, Romania in particular, and then, my aspiration is I’ll have to put more forces up into the northeastern flank,” Esper said. “If you saw in the past week, we announced the deal was made with Poland where we’d have 1,000 troops there, a forward deployed Fifth Corps headquarters as well.”
TRUMP’S ANTI-GERMANY CAMPAIGN: In an interview with Fox and Friends Wednesday morning, Trump again accused Germany of being delinquent in payments to NATO, which is not technically accurate. Germany, like most NATO nations, has not yet met a pledge to spend 2% of its GDP on its own defense, but it has until 2024 to meet the goal under a 2014 agreement.
And Trump continues to portray Germany hosting tens of thousands of American troops and their families as playing the U.S. for suckers. “Germany has to pay. Germany is a wealthy country, and they have to pay. And we’re not going to have 52,000 troops in Germany, where they make a fortune off the troops,” Trump told Fox. “You know, they built cities around our troops. We’ll let ourselves get rich first. So, Germany took advantage, and that’s what happens.”
GERMANY SHOULD SPEND MORE: Esper agrees that Germany, which has Europe’s biggest economy, should be meeting its 2% goal now — and because of its wealth should pay more. Trump is fond of citing the additional $130 billion a year that NATO allies are spending on defense since he took office in 2017. But he never mentions that the increased spending came as a result of commitments made at NATO’s 2014 summit in Wales under pressure from his predecessor President Barack Obama, something Esper acknowledged Wednesday.
“You know, the Obama administration, to their credit, had the Wales forum. It was in Wales where everybody agreed to meet this 2% target,” Esper said. “So this has been an historical issue for the United States, getting the European partners to pay more, to pay their fair share.”
Esper said that while Germany is “disappointed” about the U.S. troop withdrawal, it understands the reasoning behind it. His German counterpart, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, is “obviously disappointed with regard to losing forces,” he said, “but recognized the important thing was strengthen[ing] the alliance and doing those other things.”
“I think the feedback I’ve gotten from my team, that I’ve personally heard from allies, or that I’ve been reported on from allies has generally been positive for most of them,” Esper said, noting that the plan would leave roughly 24,000 troops still in Germany, still the largest number hosted by any NATO nation.
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Tyler Van Dyke. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: 9:30 a.m. — Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein retires and is replaced by incoming chief of staff Gen. Charles Brown Jr. The ceremony can be viewed at www.af.mil/live.
ALSO TODAY: Day 3 of the virtual Aspen Security Forum. Today’s highlights:
- 9:30 a.m. — Senate Intelligence Vice Chair Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, delivers remarks on “The View from the Hill: Protecting Liberal Values with Digital Tools.”
- 10:45 a.m. — Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization; Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme; and Maria Van Kerkhove, COVID-19 technical lead at the WHO, participate in a discussion on “Science, Solutions and Solidarity.”
- 2:45 p.m. — Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes delivers remarks on “The View from Brasilia.”
- 4:15 p.m. — Former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy delivers remarks on “A New Defense Paradigm: Modernizing the U.S. Department of Defense.”
- 5 p.m. — Mike Brown, director of the Defense Innovation Unit, participates in a discussion on “On the Front Lines of Defense Innovation in the Digital World.”
LEBANON EXPLOSION LIKELY ‘AN ACCIDENT’: In his Aspen Forum appearance, Esper contradicted Trump, who on Tuesday, after meeting with “some of our great generals,” said “they seemed to think” the massive explosion in Lebanon that killed at least 135 people and injured more than 5,000 was “an attack … a bomb of some kind.”
“Most believe that it was an accident as reported,” Esper said, adding that he was “still getting information on what happened.”
The blast appears to be the result of a fire that ignited 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate, a highly explosive chemical used in fertilizers, that was stored in a warehouse after it was confiscated from a ship six years ago.
Questioned about his assertion the explosion was the result of an attack, Trump on Wednesday said nobody knows. “Right now, you have some people think it was an attack and some people that think it wasn’t,” he told reporters at the White House. “Now, can you say accident? Somebody left some terrible explosive type of devices and the things around, perhaps. Perhaps it was that. Perhaps it was an attack. I don’t think anybody can say right now. We’re looking into it very strongly.”
RATING THE BLAST: Satellite pictures show how the warehouse and about a dozen more that surrounded it were completely obliterated by the powerful blast, which some compared to a small nuclear explosion.
That’s not an unrealistic comparison, says Joe Cirincione, a nuclear arms expert and former head of the Ploughshares Fund. “But this explosion was so large, so unexpected, that people immediately thought it was a nuclear explosion,” Cirincione told CNN on Wednesday. “And in fact, this is in a nuclear range. … One of the smallest of deployed [U.S] nuclear weapons is about 5,000 tons of TNT. It is a small warhead on our submarines now. That is about twice as big as the bomb that just went off,” he said.
“Just by comparison, if this was a nuclear bomb, like dropped on Hiroshima 75 years ago, that was 15,000 tons of explosive force — or 5 to 8 times larger than what we just saw,” Cirincione said “That killed about 100,000 people in Hiroshima. So far, the death toll here is in the low hundreds. Let’s hope it stays there.”
TIME TO RETIRE THE FOOTBALL? Speaking of nuclear weapons, former Defense Secretary William Perry has been pressing his argument, outlined in a new book The Button, co-written with Tom Collina, that Congress should revoke the president’s sole authority to launch a nuclear attack.
Appearing on PBS NewsHour last night, Perry said that the risk of miscalculation is too great and the consequence too grave for one person to be able to launch an attack that could lead to the destruction of the planet. “If a president decides to launch, he has the authority to do it, he has the equipment to do it, and, if it goes, there’s no way of calling it back, and there’s no way of just destroying it in flight,” Perry said.
“There is a likelihood of a nuclear catastrophe today, but that’s not because we expect Russia to be making an attack on us. That’s not going to happen. Their leaders are not suicidal. Deterrence really does work,” he argues. “It could happen by a political miscalculation by the president, a false alarm. Or it could happen because of a lack of sanity on the part of either the American president or the Russian president.”
In his book, Perry and Collina say it’s time to retire the nuclear “football,” the briefcase with the launch codes that is never far from the president:
You can read an excerpt from The Button here.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Mark Esper details ‘vigorous’ Defense Department reorientation to confront China’s rise
Washington Examiner: US ‘pushes the envelope’ with health chief’s planned visit to Taiwan
CNBC: Taiwan Is In A ‘Delicate’ Situation With China As Military Drills Intensify, Experts Warn
South China Morning Post: Mainland China Deploys More Amphibious Weapons Along Coast In Taiwan Mission
Washington Examiner: ‘Acted unilaterally’: Sally Yates confirms that Comey went ‘rogue’ with investigation into Flynn
Washington Examiner: Esper says ‘most believe’ Beirut explosion an accident despite Trump’s ‘bomb’ comments
Military Times: Fourth Service Member COVID-19 Death Was A Virginia Pastor
Stars and Stripes: Esper Calls George Floyd Killing A ‘Wake-Up Call’ That Opened His Eyes To Military Racial Issues
Washington Post: On atomic bomb anniversary, Hiroshima mayor warns against ‘self-centered’ nationalism
PBS NewHour: 75 years after Hiroshima, should U.S. president have authority to launch nuclear attack?
Reuters: Pompeo Says U.S., Russia Have Made Progress On Arms Control
Reuters: Pompeo Says U.N. Security Council To Vote Next Week On Extending Iran Arms Embargo
Washington Post: Gen. David Goldfein, bypassed to be Trump’s top military adviser, retires
Defense News: How The DoD Plans To Meet Its Ambitious Hypersonic Missile Test Schedule
New York Times: U.S. Examines Whether Saudi Nuclear Program Could Lead to Bomb Effort
Navy Times: Those Who Battled Bonhomme Richard Blaze Risked All To Save Ship
Just the News: Extortion 17: On anniversary of devastating shoot-down in Afghanistan, remembering the fallen
USNI News: Coast Guard Sails Medium Cutter North of Arctic Circle as Nanook Exercise Kicks Off
Air Force Magazine: Air Force Formalizes New Approach to SERE Training
Air Force Magazine: Skirting Tradition: Air Force OKs Mess Dress Pants for Women
Marine Corps Times: Here’s What Narcos Could Teach Marines, Sailors About ‘Cocaine Logistics’
Forbes: Opinion: Ten Performance Gains The Ford-Class Carrier Will Deliver That A Nimitz Never Can
Calendar
THURSDAY | AUGUST 6
9 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Jason Abend to be DOD inspector general; Bradley Hansell to be deputy undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security; Lucas Polakowski to be assistant secretary of defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs; and Louis Bremer to be assistant secretary of defense for special operations/low-intensity conflict. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
9:30 a.m. — Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein retires and is replaced by incoming chief of staff Gen. Charles Brown Jr. The ceremony can be viewed at www.af.mil/live.
9:30 a.m. — Mark Warner, ranking member, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence interviewed by David Sanger, national security correspondent and senior writer, the New York Times at the Aspen Security Forum. https://www.aspensecurity2020.com/attend
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the United States Naval Institute webcast: “The Movement Toward Greater Integration in Naval Warfare,” with Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Warfighting Requirements and Capabilities Vice Adm. James Kilby; Lt. Gen. Eric Smith, commander of the Marine Corps Combat Development Center; and retired Vice Adm. Peter Daly, CEO of USNI. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
10 a.m. — Middle East Institute webinar: “After Qassem Soleimani: The Islamic Republic’s Strategy for the Arab World,” with Tarek Osman, senior political counselor for the Arab World at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; Ariane Tabatabai, Middle East fellow in the German Marshall Fund’s Alliance for Securing Democracy; Morad Vaisibiame, journalist and editor at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Radio Farda; and Alex Vatanka, director of the MEI Frontier Europe Initiative and Iran Program. https://www.mei.edu/events/after-qassem-soleimani
3:30 p.m. — RAND Corporation webinar: “Space Launch,” with Brig. Gen. D. Jason Cothern, vice commander of the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center; Bonnie Triezenberg, senior engineer at RAND; Yool Kim, senior engineer at RAND; and Gary McLeod, senior policy researcher at RAND. https://www.rand.org/events/2020/08/06.html
4:15 p.m. — Michele Flournoy, former U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy, interviewed by Courtney Kube, NBC News Pentagon correspondent at the Aspen Security Forum. https://www.aspensecurity2020.com/attend
5 p.m. — Mike Brown, director, Defense Innovation Unit, and Kathleen Hicks, director, International Security Program, CSIS interviewed by Anja Manuel, director, the Aspen Strategy Group at the Aspen Security Forum. https://www.aspensecurity2020.com/attend
5 p.m. — George Mason University National Security Institute “NatSec Nightcap,” conversation with John Demers, assistant attorney general of the National Security Division at the Department of Justice, and Jamil Jaffer, NSI’s founder and executive director. https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/natsec-nightcap-august-6-2020/
6 p.m. — East-West Center in Washington webinar: “Japan’s Missile Defense Debates: A Multipolar World, Collective Defense, and Leadership Transition,” with Yoichiro Sato, professor at Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University; James Schoff, senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Asia Program; and Satu Limaye, director of the East-West Center. https://www.eastwestcenter.org/events
MONDAY | AUGUST 10
10 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army’s Thought Leaders webinar with Chris Brose, author of The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare. Register at https://info.ausa.org.
WEDNESDAY | AUGUST 12
12 p.m. — SETA Foundation at Washington D.C. webinar: “Bolton’s Book: Trump Administration’s Foreign Policymaking,” with Trita Parsi, executive vice president, Quincy Institute; Mike Doran, senior fellow, Hudson Institute; and Kadir Ustun, executive director, The SETA Foundation at Washington D.C. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Every combatant commander and every other member of the Joint Chiefs thought there was one guy above all others, but that is not ultimately their choice. … It’s the president’s choice, and Dave completely accepted it.”
Former Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson, quoted in the Washington Post, on President Trump rejecting Air Force chief David Goldfein to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs.
