CAN TRUMP BOMB IRAN? In an interview with NPR yesterday Defense Secretary Mark Esper initially said that the current Authorization for Use of Military Force does not give President Trump the authority to strike targets in Iran in response to threats against U.S. forces, but then after thinking about it, said while the AUMF would not authorize it, Article II of the Constitution would.
The clarification came after the formal interview concluded, according to NPR’s Ari Shaprio who conducted the q-and-a in Esper’s office late yesterday, when Esper called Shapiro back to clarify one of his answers.
“We hold Iran responsible for its proxies, and we will retain the right to exercise self-defense and take action where legally available and appropriate to hold those proxies accountable for their actions,” Esper told NPR.
Esper also said there was “complete agreement” among Trump’s national security team that Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani was “a compelling target to take out,” based on “what he had done and what he was planning to do,” which he described as “bigger in scale” and which “would likely result in open hostilities.”
The killing of Soleimani, he said, “reset deterrence” with Iran.
Asked by Shaipro if he would agree that the Pentagon has sent mixed messages about the justification for the strike, Esper said no, the message has been consistent. “The United States is safer today than we were a few weeks ago because we eliminated the world’s foremost terror, Qassem Soleimani, who has the blood of hundreds of American soldiers and Marines on his hands.”
THE ‘IMMINENCE’ QUESTION: In a tweet yesterday morning President Trump asserted that the fixation on whether Soleimani was planning an “imminent” attack was beside the point.
“The Fake News Media and their Democrat Partners are working hard to determine whether or not the future attack by terrorist Soleimani was “imminent” or not, & was my team in agreement,” Trump tweeted. “The answer to both is a strong YES, but it doesn’t really matter because of his horrible past!”
(An earlier version of the tweet was deleted, because the president mistakenly wrote “eminent” instead of imminent.)
A CLEAR THREAT: “We can dance around the maypole on the word ‘imminent,’” said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in an interview with Bret Baier on Fox. “What we could see was that there was an increasing threat from the activities of Qassem Soleimani, and we know that he was traveling in the region both to Beirut and then to Damascus and on to Baghdad with the intense – intent purpose of delivering a strike, a blow against Americans in the region. We weren’t about to take that risk.”
MONTHS IN THE MAKING? Pompeo also refused to comment on reports that Trump actually signed off on killing Solemani in June, seven months ago.
“I don’t want to talk about the internal deliberations,” Pompeo told Baier, “But it’s been the case that Soleimani – Soleimani has been someone who’s been on the American radar screen for an awfully long time.”
Speaking to reporters before leaving for the national championship college football game, Trump insisted the intelligence supporting the strike has been “totally consistent.”
“Here’s what’s been consistent: We killed Soleimani, the No. 1 terrorist in the world by every account. Bad person. Killed a lot of Americans. Killed a lot of people. We killed him.”
“A RED HERRING’: Attorney General William Barr also disputed the notion that for Trump to act he needed specific details of the planned attack.
“I do believe that this concept of imminence is something of a red herring,” Barr said at a news conference yesterday. “I think when you’re dealing with a situation where you already have attacks under way … you know there is a campaign that involves repeated attacks on American targets, I don’t think there’s a requirement, frankly, for, you know, knowing the exact time and place of the next attack.”
“And that certainly was the position of the Obama administration when it droned leaders of terrorist organizations,” he added.
BLINDSIDED? CNN reported yesterday that while the State Department sent a global warning to all U.S. embassies before the strike occurred, it was not directed at specific embassies and did not warn of an imminent attack, something Pompeo vigorously disputed.
“That is both false and dangerous and intentionally undermining what it is this administration did to protect the amazing men and women who work at our embassies,” Pompeo said on Fox. “They were not only notified, but we took extensive actions to do everything we could to ensure that they were safe and secure, that they were prepared, that there were reinforcements in the case that something went wrong.”
CNN said one senior State Department official described being “blindsided” when the administration said Soleimani presented an imminent threat to blow up U.S. embassies.
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Army Futures Command is holding what’s called “xTechSearch pitch days” in Austin, Texas today and tomorrow, billed as “an opportunity for American small businesses and tech entrepreneurs to present new and emerging technologies to help solve the Army’s modernization challenges.”
“During the ‘pitch days,’ tech entrepreneurs get a chance to talk through their idea with a team of Army experts drawn from related technology fields,” and are invited to submit papers proposing a unique, innovative technology-based idea. Up to 48 companies could snag a $5,000 prize and move on to the next round. Ultimately, the best idea will be awarded $250,000.
ALSO TODAY: Defense Secretary Esper welcomes welcoming Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono to the Pentagon at 2 p.m. Esper and Kono are scheduled to speak to reporters in the Pentagon briefing room at approximately 2:30 p.m. Live streamed at https://www.defense.gov
HAPPENING TONIGHT: Tonight six Democratic candidates will take the stage in Des Moines, Iowa for the seventh presidential debate of the primary election season. The debate at Drake University is the first since the U.S. drone strike that killed Qassen Soleimani, and is expected to focus more on national security policy than did previous debates.
The six candidates who, based on polling and fundraising made the cut, are: former Vice President Joe Biden; Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn.; Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.; Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.; South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg; and businessman Tom Steyer.
Frontrunner Biden is expected to be grilled over his 2002 vote to authorize military action against Iraq, especially by Sanders. The debate is the last scheduled before the Iowa caucuses Feb. 3.
NOT HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was invited to testify today before the House Foreign Affairs Committee to answer questions about the Soleimani strike, but has declined the honor.
“I am disappointed and frustrated that Secretary Pompeo will not appear before the committee,” said Committee Chairman Rep. Eliot Engel, a New York Democrat in a statement.
“Each passing day raises new questions about the strike … “Was there really an imminent threat?” Was it part of a larger operation? What was the legal justification? What is the path forward? With the wildly muddled explanations coming from the administration, the Secretary should welcome the opportunity to make the case and answer questions before the American people,” Engel said, adding, “The committee expects to hear from him soon.”
F-35 IN THE CROSSHAIRS: Elizabeth Warren is not a fan of the Lockheed Martin F-35, as she made clear this week in an interview with Task & Purpose.
“The unfortunate truth is that the F-35 remains far from what was promised on paper,” the 2020 presidentiall hopeful told T&P’s Jeff Schogol. “Pentagon officials have acknowledged that, eighteen years after development began, it still possesses deficiencies that could cause death, aircraft loss, or underperformance in combat.”
Warren blamed what she called a “broken procurement system,” which she said is “privileging special interests over American security.”
HERE WE GO AGAIN: Democrats were furious last year when President Trump used his emergency powers to shift $3.6 million in Pentagon funds from military construction projects to build more walls and barriers along the border with Mexico.
But Congress did not take that authority away, and now the president is reportedly ready to do it again. The Washington Post says it has obtained internal planning figures which show Trump is preparing to divert an additional $7.2 billion in Pentagon funding for border wall construction this year, five times what Congress authorized him to spend on the project in the 2020 budget.
‘The funding would give the government enough money to complete about 885 miles of new fencing by spring 2022, far more than the 509 miles the administration has slated for the U.S. border with Mexico,” the Post reports.
21 SAUDIS EXPELLED: Following an extensive Justice Department investigation into the Dec. 6 shooting of three sailors Naval Air Station Pensacola, 21 Saudi students have been booted out of a training program for international students.
The students “engaged in activity that raised serious concerns, including social media containing some jihadi or anti-American content and some kind of contact with child pornography,” said a Pentagon statement.
“This was an act of terrorism,” said Attoney General William Barr. “The evidence shows that the shooter was motivated by jihadist ideology. During the course of the investigation, we learned that the shooter posted a message on September 11th of this year, stating, ‘The countdown has begun.’”
“While there is no evidence of assistance or pre-knowledge of the attack by other members of the Saudi military or any other foreign nationals who were training in the United States, we did learn of derogatory materials possessed by 21 members of the Saudi military who were training in the United States,” Barr said. “Seventeen had social media containing some jihadi or anti-American content. However, there was no evidence of any affiliation or involvement with any terrorist activity or group.”
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: ‘A burden off my chest’: Wife of soldier killed in Iraq recounts finding out about Soleimani death
Washington Post: U.S. commanders at al-Asad base believe Iranian missile barrage was designed to kill
New York Times: France, Germany and U.K. Serve Notice on Iran Under Nuclear Deal
USNI News: Littoral Combat Ship Will Field Laser Weapon as Part of Lockheed Martin, Navy Test
Defense News: In A Quest For 355 Ships, U.S. Navy Leaders Are Unwilling To Accept A Hollow Force
WTKR-TV: Acting Navy Secretary Launches Initiative To Fix Problems With USS Gerald R. Ford
Defense One: The U.S. Wants to Intimidate China with Hypersonics, Once It Solves the Physics
Reuters: China Could Flex Military Muscles To Pressure Taiwan Post-Election
New York Times: Who Signs Up to Fight? Makeup of U.S. Recruits Shows Glaring Disparity
Calendar
TUESDAY | JANUARY 14
8 a.m. 2401 M St. N.W. — Defense Writers Group breakfast with Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
9 a.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion “The future Army in great-power competition,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing “From Sanctions to the Soleimani Strike to Escalation: Evaluating the Administration’s Iran Policy.” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was invited, but has declines. Instead the committee will hear from Richard Haass, president, Council on Foreign Relations; Avril Haines, Brookings Institution and former deputy national security adviser and CIA deputy director; and Stephen Hadley, former national security adviser. https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings
11:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies annual U.S.-Japan Security Seminar: The U.S.-Japan Alliance at 60,” with keynote address from Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono. https://www.csis.org/events
2 p.m. 1957 E St. N.W. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs’ Sigur Center for Asian Studies discussion on “Rising U.S.-Iran Tensions after Suleimani’s Assassination,” with Prashanth Parameswaran, senior editor at the Diplomat; and Deepa Ollapally, associate director of the GWU Sigur Center for Asian Studies http://elliott.gwu.edu
8 p.m. Drake University, Des Moines, Iowa. — Democratic National Committee presidential primary debate, expected to focus on national security aired on CNN.
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 15
8 a.m. 2401 M St. N.W. — Defense Writers Group breakfast with Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
10 a.m. Rayburn 2118 — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “DOD’s Role in Competing with China,” with Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense for policy; Andrew Philip Hunter, Center for Strategic and International Studies; retired Rear Adm. Michael McDevitt, senior fellow, Center for Naval Analyses. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing “U.S. Lessons Learned in Afghanistan,” with John Sopko, special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction. https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion “The Prospects for U.S.-Russia Arms Control,” with Andrey Baklitskiy, visiting fellow in the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program; and Jeffrey Mankoff, deputy director of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program https://www.csis.org/events
11:30 a.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion on “Reflections on 25 years of U.S. Policy in the Middle East,” with Nabeel Khoury, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; and Thomas Friedman, foreign affairs columnist for the New York Times. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion on “The Future of Iran,” with former Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi; and Michael Doran, senior fellow at Hudson Livestream at https://www.hudson.org/events
12 p.m. 1135 16th St. N.W. — American Bar Association discussion on “key future challenges confronting the national security sector,” with Glenn Gerstell, general counsel of the National Security Agency https://www.americanbar.org/events
THURSDAY | JANUARY 16
8 a.m. 300 First St. N.E. — Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and the Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center forum on “National Nuclear Security Administration: The Cornerstone of Strategic Nuclear Deterrence,” with Energy Undersecretary for Nuclear Security Lisa Gordon-Hagerty, administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration. http://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org
8 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy., Arl. — Surface Navy Association’s 32nd National Symposium, with Adm. Christopher Grady, commander, U.S. Fleet Forces and commander, U.S. Naval Forces Northern Command; Vice Adm. Thomas Moore, commander, Naval Sea Systems Command; and James Geurts assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition. https://www.navysnaevents.org/national-symposium
9 a.m. 4301 Wilson Blvd., Arl. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance forum on “2020 National Security Legal Outlook,” with Jason Klitenic, general counsel in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. https://www.insaonline.org/event
9:30 a.m. SD-G50, Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to consider the nominations of James McPherson to be undersecretary of the Army and Charles Williams, to be assistant secretary of the Navy for energy, installations, and environment. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion on “Impacts and Implications of the 2020 Taiwan General Elections,” with Jacques deLisle, director of the University of Pennsylvania’s Center for East Asian Studies; Alexander Huang, director of the Tamkang University Institute of Strategic Studies and Institute of American Studies; Thomas Wright, director of the Brookings Center on the United States and Europe; Richard Bush, chair in Taiwan studies at Brookings; and Yun Sun, nonresident fellow at Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/events
3 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute releases the Afghanistan Institute of Strategic Studies’ 2019 Report, with Shoaib Rahim, senior adviser at the Afghanistan State Ministry for Peace; Yaqub Ibrahimi, research fellow at AISS; Nazif Shahrani, professor of anthropology at Indiana University; and Husain Haqqani, director for South and Central Asia at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events
FRIDAY | JANUARY 17
10 a.m. 485 Russell — Middle East Policy Council conference on “U.S.-Iranian Confrontation: Domestic, Regional and Global Implications,” with John Limbert, former deputy assistant secretary of State for Iran; former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Kuwait Douglas Silliman; former U.S. Ambassador to Oman Richard Schmierer, chairman and president of MEPC; Suzanne Maloney, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Middle East Policy; Joyce Karam, Washington correspondent at The National; and Thomas Mattair, executive director of MEPC https://mepc.org/hill-forums
1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “the growing security challenges posed by U.S. strategic competitors, with Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Air Force Gen. John Hyten; and Kathleen Hicks, director of the CSIS International Security Program. https://www.csis.org/events
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 29
11:30 a.m. 1667 K St. N.W. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment discussion of new report, “Taking Back the Seas: Transforming the U.S. Surface Fleet for Decision-Centric Warfare,” with Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly. https://files.constantcontact.com
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I think when you’re dealing with a situation where you already have attacks under way … you know there is a campaign that involves repeated attacks on American targets, I don’t think there’s a requirement, frankly, for, you know, knowing the exact time and place of the next attack.”
Attorney General William Barr, at a news conference Monday.
